Outright plays (total stake per play: 2pts)
Gil Morgan to win 25/1 e.w. @ William Hill
Considerably higher odds than elsewhere and for no apparent reason. Roberts may have dominated this Tour at the start of the season, but has finished 5th and 7th in his last two events on this Tour and while he played well at Harbour Town last week, many on this Tour have found it hard to carry a strong performance on the PGA Tour over to the Champions Tour the following week. Morgan, for his part, has finished in the top-3 in two of his last three starts, being within a few strokes of the lead throughout the Puerto Vallarta Blue Agave Golf Classic in Mexico and he does have a good record in this event. Last year's staging can be ignored because of the unusual cold and very windy conditions, but the year before he had held the lead after the 1st and 2nd rounds and was set for at least a playoff place when tied with one hole to play, but found a very bad lie in a fairway bunker and bogeyed the hole to lose to Hale Irwin by one. He doesn't win too often nowadays, but there is still a decent return at these odds on yet another high finish.
Tom Purtzer to win 25/1 e.w. @ Expekt
Certainly Purtzer doesn't win as much as he should do. In his last three starts, he has entered the final round 4th, 1st and 2nd place and has yet to finish in the places. Last time out he dropped three shots in the final four holes when still a serious challenger for the title; the time before that he surged to an early final round lead, but was dragged down by two partners in the final group who hadn't been in that position for a very long time and played very poorly; and the first time he looked set for 2nd place behind Kite before dropping four shots in the last six holes. Okay, so he hasn't played well when in contention, but these odds more than reflect this and the extra place on offer at Expekt (BetFred and Skybet offer 28/1 but only four places) might prove useful. But it is still better that he keeps getting himself into contention and he is one of those players who, because of back problems in the past, should benefit from the Tour's decision to re-allow players to use carts. This began in Mexico last time out and he came close to winning again. And there is also his course form to consider. He was 6th in 2004 and was the first-round leader last year before the cold, windy weather arrived over the weekend and he admitted to struggling with his back in the conditions. He still finished 3rd, which points to another strong performance this week, though maybe it wouldn't be a bad thing if the final round were cancelled!
Mark Johnson to win 66/1 e.w. @ BetInternet
No such final round worries with Johnson. He has improved his final round position in each of his last three starts, finishing 17th, 2nd and 6th in the process, successfully defended his 2nd round lead to win the Toshiba Senior Classic last year in style by eagling the last hole to win by four shots and shot every round under-par when winning the 2004 National Qualifying Tournament. He doesn't have the consistency of Morgan and Purtzer, but he did show in his rookie year last year that he can be very competitive in a run of events, particularly from March to May, and that appears to be happening again this year. He finished 18th in this event last year, but he had won his maiden Champions Tour title in his last outing and so some letdown was to be expected, but it is still good course experience for him this year. He also shares the first tee-time with Mark James as a two-ball and that should be an advantage, particularly with virtually everyone else playing in three-balls. Either way, there is plenty of value at these odds on this type of player in a 49-man field.
Gil Morgan to win 25/1 e.w. @ William Hill
Considerably higher odds than elsewhere and for no apparent reason. Roberts may have dominated this Tour at the start of the season, but has finished 5th and 7th in his last two events on this Tour and while he played well at Harbour Town last week, many on this Tour have found it hard to carry a strong performance on the PGA Tour over to the Champions Tour the following week. Morgan, for his part, has finished in the top-3 in two of his last three starts, being within a few strokes of the lead throughout the Puerto Vallarta Blue Agave Golf Classic in Mexico and he does have a good record in this event. Last year's staging can be ignored because of the unusual cold and very windy conditions, but the year before he had held the lead after the 1st and 2nd rounds and was set for at least a playoff place when tied with one hole to play, but found a very bad lie in a fairway bunker and bogeyed the hole to lose to Hale Irwin by one. He doesn't win too often nowadays, but there is still a decent return at these odds on yet another high finish.
Tom Purtzer to win 25/1 e.w. @ Expekt
Certainly Purtzer doesn't win as much as he should do. In his last three starts, he has entered the final round 4th, 1st and 2nd place and has yet to finish in the places. Last time out he dropped three shots in the final four holes when still a serious challenger for the title; the time before that he surged to an early final round lead, but was dragged down by two partners in the final group who hadn't been in that position for a very long time and played very poorly; and the first time he looked set for 2nd place behind Kite before dropping four shots in the last six holes. Okay, so he hasn't played well when in contention, but these odds more than reflect this and the extra place on offer at Expekt (BetFred and Skybet offer 28/1 but only four places) might prove useful. But it is still better that he keeps getting himself into contention and he is one of those players who, because of back problems in the past, should benefit from the Tour's decision to re-allow players to use carts. This began in Mexico last time out and he came close to winning again. And there is also his course form to consider. He was 6th in 2004 and was the first-round leader last year before the cold, windy weather arrived over the weekend and he admitted to struggling with his back in the conditions. He still finished 3rd, which points to another strong performance this week, though maybe it wouldn't be a bad thing if the final round were cancelled!
Mark Johnson to win 66/1 e.w. @ BetInternet
No such final round worries with Johnson. He has improved his final round position in each of his last three starts, finishing 17th, 2nd and 6th in the process, successfully defended his 2nd round lead to win the Toshiba Senior Classic last year in style by eagling the last hole to win by four shots and shot every round under-par when winning the 2004 National Qualifying Tournament. He doesn't have the consistency of Morgan and Purtzer, but he did show in his rookie year last year that he can be very competitive in a run of events, particularly from March to May, and that appears to be happening again this year. He finished 18th in this event last year, but he had won his maiden Champions Tour title in his last outing and so some letdown was to be expected, but it is still good course experience for him this year. He also shares the first tee-time with Mark James as a two-ball and that should be an advantage, particularly with virtually everyone else playing in three-balls. Either way, there is plenty of value at these odds on this type of player in a 49-man field.
