Liberty Mutual Legends of Golf

[Stanley]

Outright plays (2 units):

Gil Morgan to win 12/1 e.w. @ Paddy Power, Boyle and Stan James
With no course history to go on, siding with three in-form players instead, including Morgan yet again. Last week he slipped from a position of first-round leader, but still extended his run of top-10 finishes to six and maintained his position at the top of the Tour Money List. Top-ranked in greens in regulation and 3rd in the All-Round category, he should play well on any course at the moment.

Larry Nelson to win 14/1 e.w. @ Centrebet
Nelson secured his third runners-up spot of the year last week. It must be frustrating that he hasn't won for 18 months, but he has been much more competitive this year than in the second half of last year. It does help when you're top-3 in total driving, greens in regulation and putting average! In great form and, like Morgan, will surely convert one of these chances.

Tom Purtzer to win 22/1 e.w. @ Centrebet
Purtzer completes a trio of players who are in the top-5 of the Money List, Scoring Average, All-Round Ranking and Greens in Regulation categories. Unlike the other selections, he has won on Tour this year (SBC Senior Classic) but like the others, he has finished consistently high up the leaderboard each week. A top-4 finish from Purtzer would cover the other two if they failed, but am hopeful of getting a return from two of these.

 

[Stanley]

Will have matchup plays up later, but for now there's a nice scalp available with Irwin -139 @ Centrebet & Fleisher +160 @ Five Dimes

 

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (2 units unless stated):

Morris Hatalsky to beat Ben Crenshaw -111 @ BetandWin [6 units]
Nice to see BetandWin and Centrebet offer matchups this week, particularly given some of their prices! Hatalsky has failed to reproduce his 2002 form this season, but will gladly oppose Crenshaw any day. Despite Hatalsky's indifferent 2003 form he still leads Gentle Ben 4-0-1 h2h in the last three months and 14-3-2 h2h on the Champions Tour in total.

Tom Purtzer to beat Rodger Davis -111 @ BetandWin [4 units]
Despite finishing 4th in the Royal Caribbean Classic and winning the Toshiba Senior Classic, Davis has been far from consistent this year. Those have been his only top-20 finishes of the season (7 starts) and the only times that he has beaten Purtzer this year. Their h2h record generally reads 2:1 in favour of Purtzer and will side with him again at these odds.

Dana Quigley to beat Rodger Davis -150 @ Five Dimes [4 units]
Did consider Quigley for the outrights, but despite him winning the first event of the year, he does tend to struggle in closing out events. That is much less important for the matchups and despite the price, there is value in a player who has finished ahead in five of their last six common events.

Dana Quigley to beat Vicente Fernandez -111 @ BetandWin
Fernandez has played well this year, winning the ACE Group Classic and finishing 2nd last week (he also finished in the top-5 of his home Open in December), but is much less consistent than Quigley and is prone to coasting if he doesn't have a particularly good 1st round. Siding with Quigley again.

Hale Irwin to beat Bruce Fleisher -139 @ Centrebet [6 units]
Nice scalp on this matchup, but it is also worthy of a play in its own right. Fleisher did edge out Irwin in a great finish to the Verizon Classic in February, but he has played poorly by his standards this year apart from that week and has just two top-10 finishes from eight starts. Since the Verizon Classic, Irwin has yet to finish behind Fleisher in any event and I don't see it happening this week either.

Gil Morgan to beat Bob Gilder -118 @ Centrebet [4 units]
Gilder showed last week what a great front-runner he is and while he won back-to-back on two occasions last year, I'm still opposing him. Prior to last week's win, his best finish all season had been 16th (MasterCard Classic) and he had finished behind Morgan in every event they had both entered until last week. Morgan looks sure to be a contender this week and who knows which Gilder will turn up, so sticking with the doctor!

Larry Nelson to beat Bruce Lietzke -111 @ Centrebet
Adding a play on the remaining outright selection as well. Lietzke's form has been patchy this year and he has been nowhere near as consistent as Nelson who leads 4-1-1 h2h this year. Enough of an advantage for a play at these odds.

No 1st round plays.

 

[Stanley]

3rd round plays (2 units):

Vicente Fernandez to beat Ed Dougherty -125 @ Five Dimes
Gil Morgan to beat Bruce Fleisher -118 @ Five Dimes
Tom Jenkins to beat Bobby Wadkins -115 @ Five Dimes

 

[Stanley]

3rd round update: 1-2-0; -2.66 units

Fernandez/Dougherty WON by 3
Morgan/Fleisher LOST by 2
Jenkins/Wadkins LOST by 3

Final update:

Matchups: 3-3-1; -0.22 units

Hatalsky/Crenshaw WON by 6
Purtzer/Davis LOST by 6
Quigley/Davis WON by 3
Quigley/Fernandez WON by 3
Irwin/Fleisher TIED (deadheat)
Morgan/Gilder LOST by 6
Nelson/Lietzke LOST by 7

18-holes: 1-2-0; -2.66 units

Outrights: 0-3; -6.00 units

Morgan 24th
Nelson 21st
Purtzer 32nd

Disappointing bogey-bogey finish by Irwin proved to be expensive. It wouldn't have made for a profitable event after such poor outright selections, but it would have been very helpful.

Champions Tour ytd
Matchups: 22-18; -12.73 units
18-holes: 7-6; -0.32 units
Outrights: 7-20; -11.20 units