People can talk about all the wise guys, syndicates, and heavy hitters they want. They are around, and they do move lines. However, with all the offshore sportsbooks now and with the computer generation going, I don't think they "move" it like they used to, and I especially don't think that every line move is caused by syndicates.
There is so much information available now that did not used to be available to the average Joe who was getting all his lines from a bookie, writing them down on paper, reading his local sports section, then calling in his plays.
Injuries move the line quite a bit especially when key players are involved.
I also know for a fact that Offshores will move lines sometimes for the sole reason that one of their players who wins bets the game. For example, I have a friend who bets around 500-1000 a game which is in itself not enough to move a line especially when there is a lot of action on it. HOWEVER, as soon as he bets it, the offshore book will move the line whether it's making the dog smaller or the fav bigger or adjusting the juice. I also have a few other friends betting golf who don't bet anymore than 100 a pop and cause those lines 10 and 20 cent moves.
Another thing that moves lines is "5000 guys like us playing 100 bucks a pop". A scenario that happens all the time is this. Joe Public wakes up at 1100 on Saturday morning. He runs out to the mailbox, sees who is playing, and he picks out about 10 games he likes. He then logs on to his internet book, finds the games and then bets them. He says, "Florida is only giving up 21 to crappy Auburn?? The linesmaker screwed up there! I'm going to POUND Florida and cash out big!!" He never looks at line movement, weather, injuries, etc. He is just reading little tidbits in the paper, seeing who is on top of the AP poll, betting his home team, or better yet watching College Gameday on ESPN, lol. These games are almost always favorites.
Another thing about the "wiseguys" is this. Lots of times they get better lines than we internet stooges do. They might even being getting -2.5 when the line is -3 everywhere else or even greater discrepancies across key numbers. IMO, following moves from the wiseguys is a losing proposition in the end because you never get their numbers to bet, and the value is gone before you can bet it. However, I will also say that there are folks that bet this way and do quite well with it (I think Never Caught Up follows line moves closely and bets them with success, but I also think he spends as much time on it as most folks do on their 9 to 5. Not an easy thing to do).
I think that saying wiseguy line moves don't exist or that Joe Public line moves don't exist is flawed thinking. I think they both happen. What I get sick and tired of hearing is people who think that every move on a favorite from -8 to -9.5 etc. is from a wiseguy syndicate. They aren't.
Good topic, and one that I like to debate often with some of my cyberspace buddies.
