Line movement patterns - Oly vs CRIS vs Pinn

[GM]

I know the line opens at CRIS, but I am wondering who moves their lines faster, CRIS, Pinnacle or Oly? Which place usually has higher lines? I've played at Oly a few times over the years but can never beat the buggers. However, even though I no longer have more than a very small amount there and may go weeks without putting in a bet there, I check their lines almost every day...so I have a good feel for how they move them.

I've done fairly well just betting on the sides they don't want money on (at other books, of course...more favorable lines).

Their modus operandi, as I see it:

* The majority of their games, the lines float around as they would anywhere else. But they definitely show their hand sometimes...

* In some cases they drag their feet a bit and hold firm on a line. Say, on a less-important number, like 5 in the NFL. If everyone else has gone to +5?, they'll hold firm on 5, until they are practically the last 5 on the board (certainly the last 5 out of the books I am using). Then and only then do they adjust. This to me is a sign to take the dog elsewhere. Right more often than not. On a key number, such as 7 or 4 (but not so much on super-important 3), they'll also drag a bit...sometimes never budging.

* Other cases (more rare than the one above), they will quickly over-react to a line move. While everyone else is scaling up 4 to 4? to 5, they will go straight from 4 to 5, or even 5?. I think of this as a stop sign - they clearly want nothing more at all on the favorite. Not sure if this is just a case of them getting hit by a highly respected customer or two, or just an over-adjustment in anticipation of more favorite money to come in later. This happened today on GB/Philly...opened at 3?, and 10 minutes later went to 5, only to slide back a bit to 4?. They don't seem to be as concerned as other places about getting middled doing this.

Anyways, long-winded I know...but my question, for Nick or anyone who is VERY VERY familiar with both Oly and CRIS (or both Oly and Pinnacle) and has seen these patterns at Olympic...

When Oly is doing these things, what are CRIS/Pinnacle doing? Any predicatble patterns? Who moves first? Which book is generally more dog-friendly?

Thanks to anyone who is still reading.

 

[IE]

can't give any help or insight to any movement for the 3 involved, but it might be of help to you to track their movements here:

just an example for nba game:

san antonio/denver total

cris...on page 2

http://www.bestbettor.com/gamelineslvln.php?GameID=21342&LineSourceID=3

pinnacle...on page 1

http://www.bestbettor.com/gamelineslvln.php?GameID=21342&LineSourceID=1


olympic ... on page 1

http://www.bestbettor.com/gamelineslvln.php?GameID=21342&LineSourceID=7


overall entry page here:
(clicking on the # in brackets beside line for history)

http://www.bestbettor.com/livelines.php?AllGames=&AllBettable=1&SportID=0

 

[kickserv]

this probably does you no good GM, but I'll respond anyway

my sport is tennis.........I can tell ya that Olympic barely moves tennis lines......but when they do they are drastic......Pinnacle moves lines like crazy, and CRIS barely moves a line, but when they do it is drastic.


as I said this does ya no good....but hey, I thought I'd respond.



also worth noting that with regards to tennis lines........they can vary drastically from one book to another.....not uncommon for a dog to be +120 at one book and +155 at another........prices are wacky when it comes to tennis prices........of course not so with regards to Football, Hockey, Basketball, and Baseball......your not going to find the Leafs at +110 at one book and +170 at another



and oh yeah....tennis season has started...see "off the wall"

 

[GM]

Hey IE,

Thanks for the replies. I gave the links a look too. Man Pinn likes to move their lines like crazy....every 10 minutes an adjustment! I wonder why they feel the need to do that. That would drive me nuts from a bookkeeping perspective, all those weird juice amounts. Interesting to see the comparison on that one game... but whether or not that was a game any of these books had a solid opinion or unbalanced action on...well, it doesn't appear they did.

Kickserv,

Sounds like you could get some good scalps in tennis (or other sports that are not as high-profile). Guaranteed profit is always a good thing and doesn't even require an opinion on a match. Do you ever find scalps out there that are worthwhile?

Just in case you don't know what I mean.... either situations where you can get + money on both competitors, at different books, or.... where you can get + money on one player at one book, which is higher than the - money you'd have to pay on him at another book (+115 at Book A, -110 at Book B). Not talking about the books putting up lines that are mistakes (not into scamming or getting picks voided). But if some books are very slow to move lines, a dog could become a favorite at one place but not another... that sort of thing.

I'll keep an eye out for your picks. A friend of mine who works offshore, who I believe you have spoken to, tells me that your tennis picks are pretty good.

Thanks.

 

[kickserv]

yep....good point about scalps.........but sadly I'm not like most madjackers that have accounts at 954 different books!!........only a couple I trust........but yes, you make a great point


and yep....I've spoken to him

 

[Nick Douglas]

Sorry it took me so long to reply. First of all let me say that I am no great expert on line movement. With any type of movement, you have to look at the big picture. What are other books doing in addition to Oly. Sometimes a book like Pinnacle will open a number a little later than CRIS and Oly and everyone's number will adjust to Pinnacle.

I think you'd have to really sit down and watch the Don Best screen for a while to understand everything fully. A few key things I look at is when Pinnacle takes a "stand" on a hockey game. Like if most shops have +100/-120, if Pinnacle has +111/-121, I usually will try to avoid betting the dog. It is so tough though because of all the late line movement. One thing I've considered trying is funding my Pinnacle account and only playing if I get value on a late move. Say if I've already handicapped Red Wings and then are -170 most of the day, I would wait until just before face off and if I get big movement to give me better value at like -155 or so, then play it. If not, pass it. Only reason for this is because Pinnacle's lines move so much just before face off. Might be a shot at some good value.

Concerning which book moves first, I don't have a good idea about that. You'd have to ask someone more experienced in tracking moves. For best underdog lines, I tend to side with Pinnacle of the 3. Really, if you are betting dogs, in my opinion there is little reason to play at those books. Go with WSEX, SIA or someone like that.

 

[GM]

Thanks for the reply Nick. I guess it will just take more study. I agree, as a dog better Oly is not very helpful. I bet a lot of dogs... but I guess the point was, if they want money on a dog it's usually the wrong side anyways. So I've really had little luck maintaining a balance there. I find them much more useful to use them as a tool to steer me towards winners. I do like their variety of props though and may re-up there just for the Superbowl. (Either there or Carib).

I've had experience with WSEX...one of the first books I was ever with. Definitely a class operation, but I didn't find their lines a whole lot different from Olympic. No complaints about them though.

I will not post up with SIA. I know you are a big backer of theirs while many others trash them. I was a customer of theirs twice and got paid both times (the second time was a pretty decent sum too, and without delay). But that was 2-3 years ago, and even back then I was leery because their dog lines were so far out of line with the norm. And with what I have read lately I will not risk going back now.

Thanks again.

 

[Nick Douglas]

GM,

SIA is not a risk in my opinion. People complain about getting booted. People who play correlated parlays (halftimes w/ full game plays) complain when their wagers get reversed. People who bet bad lines and have those wagers cancelled complain. People who don't know how slow SIA pays complain. If you are one of those people, it is a risk.

The bottom line as I see it, though, is that I am not a scammer. They move on action. When you are seeing these great soft lines, you are not seeing lines moved on air that are going to get them killed the other way. You are seeing a book with a very large, very square base of clientele betting a line one way before you take advantage and bet it the other way. True, they will kick you out if you beat them often enough, but until that day comes I am happy with wagering on better lines and just waiting a week or slightly less to have my money show up in my checking account.

The thing about SIA is that by their business model, they are a relatively stable book. Obviously anything can happen, but there are a heck of a lot of books out there that open themselves up too much in my opinion by moving on air and allowing higher limits, large bonuses, reload bonuses, low juice, etc.

I guess time will tell, but here is one thing I always look at. I want to play at a book for a reason. I don't like having 10 books funded at once. I like 3 and maybe up to 5 funded at once. I am choosey because of that so I want books that have the best chance of offering me something attractive on a given day. Be it early lines (CRIS), square soccer lines (Oasis), low soccer juice (Canbet), underdog lines (SIA) or anything else like that. Obviously if you don't get paid, that is a problem, but the records of all of these books is clean from my understanding with fairly paying players so I feel good at any of these books.