KCwolf i saw your response in kennedyinfos thread and was just wondering if you two and others could elaborate further as to what you look for in line movements with baseball. I have looked at public moves in NBA basketball totals in the the past and have done fairly well by going against consensus movements in the totals. Just wondering how you apply the theory here and even in college and pro football. Thanks for any advice. Always looking to get better at this.
Line Moves - KCwolf, kennedyinfo and others
- Thread starter H-Town
- Start date
Other sports are very different from baseball.
If you are a line watcher, be prepared to watch your monitor all day long, using the live line services available. Not going to go into that here.
A basic principle to drive the point across, the public moves lines slowly in baseball, most generally. Non-public moves will result in 10 cent jumps or more, all in one move.
I leave you with a quick question, as this topic is very complicated and requires a tremondous amount of experience:
If a heavy favorite of lets say -150 or more moves slowly by ten to 25 cents, lets say--does that mean it's the public liking that team straightup on the moneyline?
Not neccessarily. As I said previously, it gets complicated with scalps, parlay action, etc.
That is as far as I'm going to go, I hope you can respect that.
In closing, I congratulate kennedyinfo and meant no disrespect in posting in his thread last night. I liked the CWS last night, but there was some strange line movement that continued after I posted. It became a no play on that basis. That particular game received a lot of action, both ways.
I just enjoy all handicapping information, and kennedyinfo plays like I do, so I made a comment.
Keep up the great work everyone, got to get back to finding a winner or two.
If you are a line watcher, be prepared to watch your monitor all day long, using the live line services available. Not going to go into that here.
A basic principle to drive the point across, the public moves lines slowly in baseball, most generally. Non-public moves will result in 10 cent jumps or more, all in one move.
I leave you with a quick question, as this topic is very complicated and requires a tremondous amount of experience:
If a heavy favorite of lets say -150 or more moves slowly by ten to 25 cents, lets say--does that mean it's the public liking that team straightup on the moneyline?
Not neccessarily. As I said previously, it gets complicated with scalps, parlay action, etc.
That is as far as I'm going to go, I hope you can respect that.
In closing, I congratulate kennedyinfo and meant no disrespect in posting in his thread last night. I liked the CWS last night, but there was some strange line movement that continued after I posted. It became a no play on that basis. That particular game received a lot of action, both ways.
I just enjoy all handicapping information, and kennedyinfo plays like I do, so I made a comment.
Keep up the great work everyone, got to get back to finding a winner or two.
KCwolf
Thanks for your reply. I respect that you dont want to give away your tried and true methods...one question though....
In kennedyinfos most recent thread he mentions that the reds game has jumped 10 cents already and implies a play the other way - similar to what I do with NBA totals. In this particular instance does this represent to you smart money or joe public?
Also..what do you mean by scalps? Thanks again for your insight.
Thanks for your reply. I respect that you dont want to give away your tried and true methods...one question though....
In kennedyinfos most recent thread he mentions that the reds game has jumped 10 cents already and implies a play the other way - similar to what I do with NBA totals. In this particular instance does this represent to you smart money or joe public?
Also..what do you mean by scalps? Thanks again for your insight.
Thanks.
So if i interpret then...early action is the public and late movements of a dime or more is generally smart shops? Why then is it important to look at the movements all day? Why not just print out the early lines and come back an hour or two before first pitch?
Thanks again for your posts.
Im thinking about the following for tonight.
LA (home team seems to always be a good play between these two - not exactly sure but I think its like 9-1 out of last ten)
Zona (home team, better team, batista has really rounded into form the last month, and need a good win after the braves series)
Atlanta (and the over for a smaller amt) - Houston just cant seem to beat these guys and if they do its gonig to be because they have run support.
What do you think?
So if i interpret then...early action is the public and late movements of a dime or more is generally smart shops? Why then is it important to look at the movements all day? Why not just print out the early lines and come back an hour or two before first pitch?
Thanks again for your posts.
Im thinking about the following for tonight.
LA (home team seems to always be a good play between these two - not exactly sure but I think its like 9-1 out of last ten)
Zona (home team, better team, batista has really rounded into form the last month, and need a good win after the braves series)
Atlanta (and the over for a smaller amt) - Houston just cant seem to beat these guys and if they do its gonig to be because they have run support.
What do you think?
H-Town-
You ask if printing opening lines and comparing them to the very late lines would be a good way to evaluate the movement. I am no expert on this, but I know a little. From what I gather reading KC's post, it seems the important factor is the rate at which the line is changing and when it is making it's biggest move.
Line opens at -120 and let's say before first pitch you see -145. So you say, wow, public must be on the favorite hear...I will fade them and get the higher priced dog here.
But what if 10 minutes after it opened it was already up to -135 (a movement of $0.15), and in the span of the entire day it moved more from the -135 to -145. Get my point? You have to be watching things pretty consistently and have real good knowledge about it to take advantage of it. I am not sure how you evaluate going against the public as they don't move the line too much. In this case...steam moved the line to -135...what's to say there aren't other guys out there like you who want to play with the smart money and play the favorite also and they slowly move it to -145. Now you think you are fading the consensus, but in fact you are going against the smart money as well.
I don't even know if I make sense b/c I don't have a firm grip on your idea of going against the consensus based on a line move when lines are primarily moved by sharp money. I guess I am not sure if by consensus you mean Joe Public, or if you really mean the actual consensus which could include sharps/steam.
Good topic of discussion though.
I have found it fairly successful in NCAA hoops going against wagerline.com's consensus plays of higher than 70%. That is Joe Public at it's finest.
You ask if printing opening lines and comparing them to the very late lines would be a good way to evaluate the movement. I am no expert on this, but I know a little. From what I gather reading KC's post, it seems the important factor is the rate at which the line is changing and when it is making it's biggest move.
Line opens at -120 and let's say before first pitch you see -145. So you say, wow, public must be on the favorite hear...I will fade them and get the higher priced dog here.
But what if 10 minutes after it opened it was already up to -135 (a movement of $0.15), and in the span of the entire day it moved more from the -135 to -145. Get my point? You have to be watching things pretty consistently and have real good knowledge about it to take advantage of it. I am not sure how you evaluate going against the public as they don't move the line too much. In this case...steam moved the line to -135...what's to say there aren't other guys out there like you who want to play with the smart money and play the favorite also and they slowly move it to -145. Now you think you are fading the consensus, but in fact you are going against the smart money as well.
I don't even know if I make sense b/c I don't have a firm grip on your idea of going against the consensus based on a line move when lines are primarily moved by sharp money. I guess I am not sure if by consensus you mean Joe Public, or if you really mean the actual consensus which could include sharps/steam.
Good topic of discussion though.
I have found it fairly successful in NCAA hoops going against wagerline.com's consensus plays of higher than 70%. That is Joe Public at it's finest.