I will have my thoughts tomorrow early afternoon. What I believe so far is that Japan will shut down Florida almost completely. They have a great pitcher going tomorrow. Same guy that jacked two out of the yard today. He is tough. I dont think Florida will touch him much. What I am a little uncertain of is how good Florida's ace will fare against the Japs. I know he has been really dominanant against american competition but the Japs are a different breed of ballplayer. There is no way that the play can possibly be as strong as today no matter the line due to this uncertainty but my gut at this point tells me it will be like Pearl Harbor. Need a little more time to try and decipher the situation. Not sure if there will be a line on the consolation game but the Curacaon team or however you spell it wins the game if I can confirm their ace is throwing. Probably wont be lined anyway. See you guys tomorrow.
Little Leauge Championship
- Thread starter royalfan
- Start date
Well Curacao's ace is throwing today and they are -183 right now with a run line of -1.5 and O/U 7. I am going to play the run line in this one and the total looks right on with this pitcher. Just just matters how many runs Curacaca will score.
Gl!!
Bigdog
Gl!!
Bigdog
Here is the line I currently have---
8/24/2003 5:30 PM Boynton Beach Florida vs Japan
101 Boynton Beach Florida +2? runs -120
102 Japan -2? runs -110
any thoughts?:shrug:
8/24/2003 5:30 PM Boynton Beach Florida vs Japan
101 Boynton Beach Florida +2? runs -120
102 Japan -2? runs -110
any thoughts?:shrug:
I am just going to play the Curacao game for now and then maybe make a play later depending on the line. I think the play will be the Over again!!
Bigdog
Bigdog
I would lean japan and the over. I think japan is the better play by far as I think Florida struggles big time to score against Japan. If it goes over almost guarantee japan covers. I am not sure still at this point if Japan will be able to get a lot of good swings against the Florida pitcher. Therefore I am going to pass but would recommend Japan -2 1/2 runs over anything else. May actually throw a very small play on the under on the chance that Florida pitcher can hold them down. Can get 6 uner at plus 140. Might be worth a slight play. Not worth a posted official type play though.
These championship games are usually low scoring affairs as the aces of each team are usually matched up......as is the case today. Last two championship games were 2-1 and 1-0. Japan in 2001 and Kentucky in 2002.
If this is a typical pitcher dominated game as it appears it will be it's not likely to end up 4-3 or 5-4 as one team may score a few but not likely both teams will so I'm on the under 5.5 as my primary bet (+148 at Pinnacle). As it's more likely that Japan's ace will dominate Boynton than vice versa I'm also on Japan -2.5 as a hedge and also as a possible winner (+108 at Pinnacle).
My theory is based on Boynton getting shut down in which case they are shut out or manage to score one run. The under 5.5 gives me a nice profit even if Japan manages to only win by a run or two, say 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 or 3-1. If by some reason Japan was to erupt and win 5-1, 6-0, 7-0 as an example then I make a small profit. I leave myself a pretty fair possibility however of also cashing both tickets as scores such as 3-0, 4-0, 4-1 and 5-0 would provide two winning tickets.
Again, everything is based initially on this being a traditional low scoring game so the under 5.5 is the play. As I think it is also more likely that Boynton will be shut-down I also went with Japan -2.5 which allows for two winning tickets and acts as a hedge should Japan also score a lot of runs. All bets are off if this becomes a slugfest which is decided by 1 or 2 runs. That is a very low percentage chance however as is the possibility that Boynton wins large.
May seen overly analytical (and a bit sad) as this is little league but I only invested about ten minutes thinking about this and I do watch the game every year.
If this is a typical pitcher dominated game as it appears it will be it's not likely to end up 4-3 or 5-4 as one team may score a few but not likely both teams will so I'm on the under 5.5 as my primary bet (+148 at Pinnacle). As it's more likely that Japan's ace will dominate Boynton than vice versa I'm also on Japan -2.5 as a hedge and also as a possible winner (+108 at Pinnacle).
My theory is based on Boynton getting shut down in which case they are shut out or manage to score one run. The under 5.5 gives me a nice profit even if Japan manages to only win by a run or two, say 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 or 3-1. If by some reason Japan was to erupt and win 5-1, 6-0, 7-0 as an example then I make a small profit. I leave myself a pretty fair possibility however of also cashing both tickets as scores such as 3-0, 4-0, 4-1 and 5-0 would provide two winning tickets.
Again, everything is based initially on this being a traditional low scoring game so the under 5.5 is the play. As I think it is also more likely that Boynton will be shut-down I also went with Japan -2.5 which allows for two winning tickets and acts as a hedge should Japan also score a lot of runs. All bets are off if this becomes a slugfest which is decided by 1 or 2 runs. That is a very low percentage chance however as is the possibility that Boynton wins large.
May seen overly analytical (and a bit sad) as this is little league but I only invested about ten minutes thinking about this and I do watch the game every year.
mickey, agree with you completely on the total. i was up in williamsport, last friday, saturday, and sunday. broad, florida's pitcher can bring it not really sure how well he changes speeds, although he may not really have to change speeds, he throws very similar to curacao's pitcher martines. martines only surrender three hits to japan but he was haunted by six walks and many pass balls and wild pitches. the final of that game was 4-1 in favor of japan. as for florida's offense, i'm not sold, in the regional final, broad hit a grand slam to account for florida's first four runs in the bottom of the fifth vs north carolina in a 5-0 florida win, i believe they had less than 5 hits in that game. for japan today the starting pitcher will be number 24 yuutaro tanaka, he is 5'5" tall and weighs 181 lbs, and believe me he can also bring it! this is a pitcher's duel all the way. the 2.5 runs is very scary, because i see this game definitely going under. broad does not walk many batters unlike martines. the game UNDER the total.
here are some previous scores from games of both teams.
the lowest total that the japanese team has scored was a 3-0 shutout against chofu in their national tournament. they also scored a 6-2 victory vs daito, and another 6-0 victory vs chofu.
in the asian championship they beat korea 6-2 in the final. they were 12-0 going into williamsport, scoring the following totals ( 11, 17, 11, 3, 37, 17, 6, 6, 19, 10, 10, and 6.) their lowest total in williamsport is their first game 4-1 vs curacao, every other game has been double digits.
florida's totals have been ( 11, 3, 5, 12, 1, 8, 8, 13, 11, 2, 7, 3, 9, 5, 11, 6, 5,) they have a 5-2 loss against north naples and a 1-0 victory against west boyntown beach. i don't think they have beenin double digits run scored in williamsport.
the lowest total that the japanese team has scored was a 3-0 shutout against chofu in their national tournament. they also scored a 6-2 victory vs daito, and another 6-0 victory vs chofu.
in the asian championship they beat korea 6-2 in the final. they were 12-0 going into williamsport, scoring the following totals ( 11, 17, 11, 3, 37, 17, 6, 6, 19, 10, 10, and 6.) their lowest total in williamsport is their first game 4-1 vs curacao, every other game has been double digits.
florida's totals have been ( 11, 3, 5, 12, 1, 8, 8, 13, 11, 2, 7, 3, 9, 5, 11, 6, 5,) they have a 5-2 loss against north naples and a 1-0 victory against west boyntown beach. i don't think they have beenin double digits run scored in williamsport.
You guy's ought to be ashamed to be betting on Little Leauge Baseball....................:nono:
(Give me 2 Dimes on the boys from Japan,
)
(Give me 2 Dimes on the boys from Japan,
)
We jap backers have been robbed 2 times now.........hopefully they can get to this pitcher and get some runs........
obviously the umpires know where there bread is buttered, talk about two horrible calls. one at home in the first inning, now this one in the third at third base. i don't want musburger or reynolds to go out on a limb and say that they missed the call.
