Live Dog

[GM]

Hey all,

I'm a not-too-frequent poster here, but I think I'll be on this board more in future. A little dis-satisfied with the lack of depth of the 'cappers at my current online home except for one or two. I've been following along here for a while but keeping quiet....more impressed with what I read from you guys. Anyways...

I am not one to usually get over-excited over a game, but I've found something I really do like today. Bengals + the points. Here's why....

• Corey Dillon vs the 30th-ranked run defence in the league. Field day.
• Injuries in the Detroit secondary not only open up the passing game, but will also give the run D less help vs Dillon.
• This is BY FAR the worst defence the Bengals have faced all year. NE, Balt, SD, Pitt, Clev and Chi were the previous opponents, and all 6 are in the top half of the league in D. Chicago is rated #1. They go from facing #1 to facing #30 in one week. Bengals will be toughened up from all the tough opponents and will slice thru this D like a hot knife thru butter.
• The Lions have been competitive in the last two weeks, but they were also facing the two worst defences they have seen all year. Vs the solid D's of GB, Clev and StL they scored 6, 14 and 0 pts respectively. After two soft defensive opponents, it's back to facing #10 Cinci.
• Detroit has not allowed fewer than 24 pts this year to anyone.
• Detroit has not scored more than 26 pts against anyone.
• Detroit never had the lead in ANY game until last week vs Tenn.
• Cinci coming off a humiliating home loss, out to atone and this is their chance to stay in the tough AFC Central race. A great bounceback situation where Cinci can take out their frustrations. Det's season is already over, no motivation.

For Detroit to be favored by this much over anyone while accomplishing nothing thus far is just wrong. The main reason I see for going against Cinci is their poor road record. Well, they were close @ SD until the final quarter, and lost by 9 @ Pitt, no shame in that, and Det is nowhere near being in the league with those two teams. I'm not buying the theory that Detroit is getting better...they still are losing, and they lost to a very troubled team last week. It should continue.

I REALLY like this. Will find a +3? or buy the hook if I have to.

 

[yyz]

Nice write up.

You never mentioned Batch, though. He is the "X" factor here.

Although you make sound points, I think the over is an easier choice here.

 

[bear]

GM,
Very nice work!
bear

 

[GM]

Thanks.

I did consider the Over, but as you mentioned yyz, who knows what to expect from Batch?

I see this game going one of two ways....1) Both teams trade scores, but Detroit can't get/keep the lead; or 2)Cinci builds an early lead as most of Det's opponents have done this year, then switches to a very conservative game plan. They should be able to run the ball with ease, and won't risk having Kitna throw the game away. And if they run the ball a lot, there's a chance it goes Under.

Either way I don't see Cinci's O being kept in check, so I prefer the side.