Longs Drugs Challenge

Stanley

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Outright plays (1.5pts):

Lorena Ochoa to win 10/1 e.w. @ William Hill
A short price, but still a couple of points higher than elsewhere and a justified favourite. Ochoa hasn't finished outside the top-10 in any event since the U.S. Women's Open in July (8 starts) and is the leading player in the field in terms of scoring average by over half a shot per round. This is a new course so there is no course form to draw upon, but finishing 7th in her debut in this event last year at Lincoln Hills will be of some benefit to her mindset this week. But in a such a consistent run of form, she should at the very least secure a place win.

Mi Hyun Kim to win 16/1 e.w. @ Paddy Power
Kim's form has been nowhere near as consistent - she missed the cut in two consecutive weeks in July and finished 53rd last week, but in between she has had three top-6 finishes in four starts and should be confident of another one this week against a weakened field. A good history in this event should help - 5th and 7th in her last two appearances - and she is capable of producing series of very high finishes even if she still does not win enough times. Stan James offer 20/1, but without the 5th place in the each-way terms.

Cristie Kerr to win 25/1 e.w. @ SkyBet
Kerr is by far the most inconsistent player of these three. In her last four events, she has missed the cut twice, withdrawn after the 1st round last week citing a neck injury and won the remaining event. It was her 3rd win of the year and she is well on her way to a first-ever top-5 finish on the Tour Money List. In this form, she can win again this week and it certainly does help that her breakthrough win was in this event two years ago. A different course, but fond memories of this event should spur her to a strong performance this week so long as the injury worries are not a concern.
 

Clive

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Think Ochoa at 10 is a fair price, but I couldn't have Kerr with doubts surrounding her neck.

Struggling to find much this week.... I have a nagging urge to side with Christina Kim, but 33 just doesn't tempt me...also like Janice Moodie, who has plenty of local connections.

Must try and make up my mind before they start.

Two matches I like;

PML v Jeon at SJ
and
Ochoa v Han at Expekt
 

Stanley

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On them both ;)

Matchup plays (1.5pts unless stated):

Lorena Ochoa to beat Hee-Won Han -111 @ Stan James [4.5pts]
This is a matchup that has been completely dominated by Ochoa this season: she leads Hee-Won Han 15-3-0 h2h in 2004. In fact the only two occasions that Han has finished ahead of Ochoa has been when she has finished 1st and 2nd. So if that is needed for Ochoa to lose this matchup, I'll gladly take these odds.
(also available at Expekt)

Lorie Kane to beat Jeong Jang -111 @ Stan James
Siding with the player in better form. While Jang's best finish in her last five starts has been 15th, Kane can boast three top-10s over the same run, including a playoff loss to Hee-Won Han last week.

Patricia Meunier-Lebouc to beat Seol-An Jeon -125 @ Stan James
Similar story here. Jeon's last top-10 finish was over three months ago and her last three finishes have 64th, wd and 62nd. Meunier-Lebouc has failed to reproduce her early 2003 form since returning to the Tour, but a repeat of last week's top-10 finish should erase any fears of a loss in this match.

Michele Redman to beat Janice Moodie -123 @ Expekt [3pts]
Moodie's loss of form has been dramatic - she trails Redman 2-13-0 h2h this year and that is a good ratio at these odds. She did finish in the top-10 last week, but she has had not consistency all season so there is little to reason to expect some now.
(also available at Nordicbet)

May have some more plays if/when Five Dimes finally post some matchups.
 

Stanley

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Further matchup play (3pts):

Michele Redman to beat Gloria Park -125 @ Five Dimes
Having finished ahead of Park in three of their last four common events and with a 12-5-1 h2h record in 2004, Redman is clearly the better player and with on course form to contradict this view, these looks generous odds.
 

DOGS THAT BARK

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all in same canoe here were wagers at SJ when they dropped lines

Longs Drugs Challenge-Match Bets L.Ochoa V H-W.Han Ochoa, Lorena -111
Longs Drugs Challenge-Match Bets M-H.Kim V B.Daniel Kim Mi-Hyun, -125
Longs Drugs Challenge-Match Bets C.Kerr V C.Kung Kung, Candie -111
Longs Drugs Challenge-Match Bets P.Meunier-Lebouc V S-A Jeon Meunier-Lebouc, Patricia -111
 

Stanley

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Outrights - FINAL RESULT: 0-3; -4.50pts

Ochoa 55th
Kim 7th
Kerr wd

Another disappointing effort with the outrights on this Tour. Gambled on Kerr's neck injury and lost, while Ochoa had her worst performance for a very long time. Mi Hyun Kim did, at least, show some promise, but finished one shot out of the places.

Matchups - FINAL RESULT: 2-2-1; -2.51pts

Ochoa/Han LOST by 14
Kane/Jang LOST by 13
Meunier-Lebouc/Jeon WON by 1
Redman/Moodie TIED (dead-heat)
Redman/Park WON by 7

Small loss on the plays as the banker on Ochoa results in a heavy loss. Not too much to cheer from this event.

LPGA Tour ytd
Outrights: 11-58; -30.96pts
Matchups: 61-42; +36.32pts
 
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