Who are the good cappers in MLB? New to the site. Have been tailing Billy Blastoff, Spang, Mistake Finder, Worm and a few others. Great info on this site. Any response would be appreciated. Thanks
Looking ahead
- Thread starter birdieman
- Start date
According to an Atlanta Brave player he said he doubted if the team would win the division this year. Streak is likely over.
birdieman said:
Abe Lincoln is the best capper I know at MLB. Grab a penny and flip it. :mj07:
J/K man. I bet baseball late in the season and very early in the season. Baseball is all about value; and the lines are DOMINATED by whoever the starting pitcher is versus win/loss record. Given that baseball is a game where any team can win on any given day/night, handicapping baseball involves spotting value mostly, AND the totals.
I'm not saying value in terms of betting KC every single game just b/c they are +200 to win. What I mean is in games of evenly matched teams, say red sox and yankees, you'll find maybe the red sox are +190 b/c Randy Johnson is pitching. That is GREAT value. Betting a team that wins 90+ games just to win one single game at 2-1 odds is incredible value!!
Also, started messing with Series prices late last season. Took the white sox at +300 to win their last series of the regular season against the Indians. I believe they swept. Its better value than playing favorites nightly as well. For example, Yankees go to Detroit, maybe play the series at -200 instead of each game nightly at -250, when yankees are likely to sweep anyway. Its particularly easy if you follow your home team closely, or some other team closely. I am a phillies and red sox fan, so I follow both closely. I know how they match up against divisional opponents very well, home/away splits, batter/pitcher splits, etc. For example, there was a period in the last 3 seasons where one of the nicest locks in MLB was betting against the phillies when they played florida. No true explanation, just something you know from following the teams.
Totals can be easy winners too. Stick with the 9's. I guess the average baseball game totals 9 runs, because on any given day, most totals seem to be 9 or slightly higher/lower. Whenever the total moves, it goes a run or 2 in one way, and makes the OPPOSITE way look easy. Dont go against that grain. I dont have a stat on it, but as tempting as it may be to bet OVER when the total is 7 or so, its usually that low for a reason.
Finally, I know this is looooooooong post, but ride the HOT TEAMS/HOT PITCHERS. Baseball is a game where the season is so long that there are tons of winning/losing streaks of 3+ games. In a sport like football, its tempting to bet on teams that seem to be due, or likely to snap out of it. That's not as accurate in baseball. Some teams just stink. Its unlikely you will get value betting against them, but try the -1.5. It seems tough, but trust me, for bad teams, 1.5 runs is nowhere enough sometimes.
If you play fantasy baseball, it could make it easier. I'm hardcore into fantasy baseball, and when you are, you pay more attention to pitchers/hitters that are lighting it up.. As an example, last season I had C squared (Chris CArpenter), and during his win streak, you coulda bet the Cardinals on the -1.5 spread EVERY GAME HE PITCHED for like 3 months and only lost like 2 times. Some pitcher does it every year, and multiple pitchers do it. Jason Schmidt in 04 was the man for a 3 month stretch, Halladay before he got hurt last year. It doesnt even MATTER what kinda run support they get. When guys go out and through 8 scoreless innings in 10 straight starts, betting the -1.5 is a great payout during their hot streak.
More of what Derek said...I made a fortune last year in the MLB season betting LATE in the season. I pretty much parlayed the Yankees and Indians every night on the ML for a couple weeks straight and made a killing. Later in the season the playoff teams who need to win, usually do, and unless a team who's out of it has a stud on the mound for'em, they rarely show up to play.
Moreover, you can also find some good value in awful teams who have their ace pitching. For example, I hit alot of tickets with teams like SD (peavy), Ari (webb), Mil (Capauno), etc...
Just my 2 cents.
glta
Moreover, you can also find some good value in awful teams who have their ace pitching. For example, I hit alot of tickets with teams like SD (peavy), Ari (webb), Mil (Capauno), etc...
Just my 2 cents.
glta
