looking for help

[coolgi424]

Here's a quick question that I've been thinking about....I was wondering if anyone had any thoughts...

If you take a game where the fav -1.5 is +140 and where the dog is +140. If you take both the fav -1.5 and the dog straight up for 1unit, the only way you lose is if the fav wins by one run. Any other score you win $40. Is there a way to find out how often a fav wins by a run? If it is less than 1 in 5 in this case you win in the long run.

Just curious on others thoughts..

coolgi

 

[IE]

not sure how up to date this is but saw this a while ago.

Percentage of games which produce
the following Result . . HOME FAVORITES ROAD FAVORITES
--------------------------- ---------- ------------
Win by 2 Runs or More 39.1 % 43.6 %

Win by Exactly 1 Run 18.4 % 11.6 %

Lose by Exactly 1 Run 11.0 % 16.4 %

Lose by 2 Runs or More 31.5 % 28.5 %


probably somewhere around 28/29 %...

 

[coolgi424]

Interesting...thanks for the help. According to these stats....if this was done on just road favs, you'd turn over a decent profit.

 

[Eugene Michaels]

coolgi,

Actually you are incorrect because if a ROAD team is -1.5 +140, the home team would only be around +110.

As a general rule of thumb, the ML/RL variance is 90 cents when the home team is favored and 60 cents when the road team is favored. Again, this is strictly on average, so there will obviously be exceptions.

Therefore, if a HOME team is -150, they would be around -1.5 +140, so you are right on with your +140/+140. But for a ROAD team to be -1.5 +140, they would be -120 on the ML, so the dog is only +110.

Hope this helps and good luck to you!

EM

 

[coolgi424]

Thanks EM!

I still need to look at this a little more closely. If anyone else has thoughts they would be appreciated...

You can call me an idiot if you think this is a bad idea....I wouldn't get offended.

Thanks again!

coolgi

 

[tyro]

Coolgi,

I assume if you were to follow this strategy (and base it on IE's stats), you would have to take every game on the board (since the stats don't tell you winning % based on various odds). I took today's board as an example and calculated the following, playing this system:

8 road favs/home dogs at +124/+112
7 road dogs/home favs at +154/+124

I then calculated my anticipated payoff based on IE's numbers.

Road favs pay at 43.6% and home dogs pay at 45% so

(124 x .436) + (112 x .45) = 104.4

Road dogs pay at 42.5% and home favs pay at 39.1% so

(154 x .425) + (124 x .391) = 113.9

Hope this helps. Doesn't look that great to me.