would like to get northcoast sports bowl guide. pm me or please post each games score and rating.
thanks.
thanks.
looking for northcoast 32 page bowl issue.
- Thread starter pochie
- Start date
Power Sweep
4* Tenn 27-6
3* San Diego 31-10
2* Clev 33-21
2* Houston 17-20
This is their 1st meeting but Utah faces a similar off every yr in MWC foe AF. This is a school record 5th
consec Navy bowl all under former HC Johnson (2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS) & the new HC Ken Niumatalolo (asst HC
with 10 yrs exp at Navy coaching the off) will be coaching his 1st gm. This is also UT?s 5th consec bowl and
they have won their last 6 and covered the last 5. Whittingham has been the DC at Utah S/?95 and this is his
8th bowl trip (6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS). The Utes played 7 bowl elig tms TY and were 4-3 ATS outscoring foes 25-19 but
being outgained 374-323. Navy faced 4 bowl tms and went 1-3 SU & ATS being outscored 35-28 & outgained
474-405. UT was allotted 10,000 tickets but has struggled with sales as LY they sold 1,500 tickets and 4,000 the
yr prior. There is a large Naval presence in the SD area, and the last time Navy attended this bowl (?05 51-30
win over CSU, -3), they had 20,000+ fans which is one reason why Navy was guaranteed a spot last spring
(if they achieved 6 wins). They both played AF and Utah lost 20-12 being outgained 390-313 while Navy won
31-20 but was outgained 474-381. This is the final gm for 17 Ute seniors while Navy has 22 seniors. Utah is
6-2-1 ATS as a fav of 7+ the L/2Y, but Navy was 18-8 ATS as an AD under Johnson. After Utah?s loss to BYU
Nov 24th, they started practicing for Navy right away, even before the bowl matchups were announced. Navy
traditionally takes the wk after Army off for finals and may only practice 8-9 times prior to the bowl.
Navy came into the yr with just 3 returning starters on D, but in the 2nd gm of the yr they lost their
top ret tackler from ?06, LB Sovie and their starting FS Deliz (1 of only 3 seniors in the secondary) for the
yr. After that, the defense struggled mightily with the offense practically forced to score on every poss for
the Mids to win a gm. Luckily Kaheaku-Enhada proved to be a highly proficient triple option QB leading
the tm in rushing and able to get the ball downfield (17.3 yd per comp). Navy?s bevy of talented backs
have helped the Mids become the 1st team in NCAA history to lead the nation in rushing for 3 consec
yrs. Navy?s productive offense (#36) has forced the tm to punt only 21 times TY (least in nation). Navy?s
D finished #117 overall (438 ypg, 36.5 ppg all?d) and last in our pass eff D with 3 true frosh playing major
roles in the secondary. Navy finished with 4 straight wins incl ending their 43 gm losing streak to ND, and
the D held rival Army to 3 pts to clinch a school record 5th consec Commander-In-Chief?s Trophy.
Utah had high expectations heading into the ssn, but those were quickly put on the back burner when
QB Johnson and PS#17JC RB Matt Asiata went out during the 1st game. UT decided to pull the RS off of
Mack (#30 NCAA rushing) who ended the ssn with six 100 yd rushing gms. The Utes were struggling to find
an identity losing to AF to fall to 0-2 before demolishing UCLA 44-6. The next wk they were shutout for the
1st time S/?93 by lowly UNLV and Whittingham issued a challenge to his tm ?to decide who we want to be.?
Johnson returned vs Utah St and it was pretty clear who the Utes wanted to be as they went on to win 7 straight
incl a national TV upset of L?ville in Johnson?s 2nd gm back (312 pass yds). Johnson has missed some bowl
practices (shoulder again) but they are trying to work him in gradually and he should be fine for this one. The
OL has given up 28 sks (7.5%). They have lost 9 starters due to inj since fall camp, 4 of whom were lost for the
ssn and 5 who missed at least one gm. They now take on the nation?s top rush off but could be without their
top rush defender, Long, who suffered a shld?r separation (which Whittingham calls worse than Johnson?s) vs
BYU. He is listed as ?touch and go? for this gm (check philsteele.com). The Utes D rank #2 in both the NCAA
and our in pass eff D and #3 in the nation in scoring D. They have tallied 36 sks TY. MWC ST POY Sakoda
leads the nation for active dual K/P?s in career P?s and yds. Richards ranks #9 in the nation in PR avg.
After starting the ssn 1-3, Utah has the chance to finish with 9 wins for just the 5th time in school history.
LY Navy lost their bowl in heartbreaking fashion on a fmbl?d snap which set up a 37 yd gm winning FG
for BC which should serve as strong motivation. Fortunately Navy?s high-powered off shouldn?t drop-off too
much with new HC Niumatalolo taking over for Johnson who left just 2 wks prior to the bowl. Navy took the
wk off for finals after Army and won?t hit their full allotment of practices but service academies tend not get
distracted with the pageantry surrounding ?bowl week?. Navy?s offense has avg?d 49 ppg the L/5 and they?ve
needed them as their inj depleted D has allowed 40+ pts in 7 gms this ssn. Utah?s D finished the ssn with an
impressive 4 week run (7.5 ppg) but 3 of those gm were vs the #70 (CSU), #84 (NM), & #106 (WY) offenses.
Utah is the more balanced team and we?ll call for a 41-31 Utes win. We?ll also call for the ?over? as Utah can
move the ball on Navy?s D and the Midshipmen will have some new wrinkles on offense with their new HC. FORECAST: OVER 66.5 RATING: 3?
1st ever meeting. This is Memphis? 5th all-time bowl & 4th in 5 yrs under HC West. West is 2-1 SU &
ATS after going 0-3 SU, 2-1 ATS as Clemson?s HC from ?93-?98. Mem?s last bowl was the ?05 Motor City
(38-31 win) where RB D?Angelo Williams set an NCAA rec with 34 career 100+ yard gms (bowl rec 238
yds on the day). For FAU this is their 1st ever bowl as they just started playing IA ball in ?04 becoming the
fastest start-up program to earn a bowl berth. HC Schnellenberger took over the program in ?01 when they
didn?t have a FB team. He is 4-0 SU & ATS in bowls, the last one was a win in the ?93 Liberty Bowl vs Mich
St, 18-7. He also won a Nat?l Championship with Miami in ?83. FAU played 6 bowl-caliber tms going 1-5 SU
& 2-4 ATS being outgained 416-409 & outscored 35-28 incl a loss to Fla. Mem played 3 going 1-2 SU &
ATS being outgained 516-406 & outscored 46-30. They faced 2 common opp TY (Ark St, Mid Tenn). Mem
(0-2 SU & 1-1 ATS) was outgained 440-322 & outscored 28-19 while FAU (2-0 SU & 1-1 ATS) outgained
them 393-237 & outscored them 31-23. Mem has 7 seniors among their 17 upperclassmen starters while
FAU has 5 seniors of their 14. FAU is 2-1 ATS on turf TY while Mem is 7-3 ATS on turf incl a 28-27 (+2?)
win here vs Tulane earlier TY. This is Mem?s 2nd trip to this bowl. In ?03 they broke the nation?s longest bowl
drought (beat N Texas 27-17) & are 3-0 SU & ATS in the Superdome. They are 8-2 ATS as an AD while
FAU is 4-1 ATS as an AF. Mem figures to have the crowd edge bringing 10,000 strong here in ?03.
FAU has our #59 rated off led by QB Smith (6-5 212) who was a 4x SBC POW TY incl the L/2W in
key wins which got them here. Smith matured in the 2H of the ssn avg 301 ypg (61%) with a 14-5 ratio
and going 4-2 to win the SBC Title. FAU has speedy WR?s and also utilizes their TE in the pass gm as 5
players have 23+ catches. The FAU run gm struggled outside the SBC avg just 99 ypg (2.7) although all
5 non-conf foes were BCS schools. RB Pierre led the tm but had zero 100 yd gms and FAU on the ssn
failed to have anyone break the 100 yd plateau. The OL is smallish avg 6?2? 262 with 1 Sr starter and
although inexperienced did improve down the stretch as they all?d 15 sks (3.2%) and opened holes for
127 ypg (3.5) on the year. The D, which had 15 sks, lost 2 good players in DL?s Pinnick & Savidge (knee
inj?s) but still played tough all?g just 142 ypg (4.1) the L/4 gms (ssn 180, 4.. The LB corps may be the
best in the SBC as Joseph & Sincere are #1 & #2 tacklers in the conf. The secondary has had an int in 20
straight gms and rFr Polo has 7 on the yr. The Panthers rank #80 in our pass eff D (238 ypg, 65%, 24-19
ratio) and overall have our #83 ranked D all?g 34 ppg and 417 ypg.
Memphis started the year 2-4 having lost a teammate who was killed, playing 3 gms in 11 days and
losing QB Hankins to inj for 2 games. When Hankins returned he was on fire avg 351 ypg (60%) with a 17-7
ratio as the Tigers went 5-1 down the stretch. Memphis has 6 WR that are 6? or taller & 5 had 30+ catches
led by Calhoun (6?4?) who had four 100+ yd gms the L/6 & WR Singleton (6?8?) who had two 100+ yd games
in the L/4. Memphis struggled to run the ball early due to inj & had zero 100 yd rushers the 1st 6 gms. Sr
Doss, who got healthy the 2H of ssn, had two 165+ yd gms down the stretch. The Tiger O-Line, avg 6?4?
301 with 2 Sr starters led by RG Smith, is #9 in the NCAA all?g just 13 sacks (2.6%) and avg 140 ypg (3.9).
The Tigers have our #67 ranked offense. LY Mem fired DC Joe Lee Dunn after 3 gms & West changed the
3-3-5 to a 4-3. They struggled allowing 178 ypg rush (4.5) and 409 ypg (DL not a high recruiting priority).
This ssn they all?d a staggering 210 ypg (5.2) with 26 TD ranking #110 in NCAA. The DL avg 6?3? 258 with
no seniors listed in the 4 deep (great for ?0. The team only had 14 sks which ranked #111 in the NCAA
and allowed their 3 bowl foes 317 ypg rush (6.. The LB corps was a strength despite losing OLB Greg
Jackson (inj) after 2 gms, Quinton McCrary (left tm in Nov) & Winston Bowens (inj) who filled in for Jackson.
Kasser took over and led the team in tkls. The secondary ranks #96 in our pass eff D all?g 230 ypg (62%)
with a 20-12 ratio. The Tigers allow a staggering 440 ypg and 31 ppg ranking #107 in our D rankings.
Memphis finished the ssn winning 5 of 6 gms incl 3 upsets as underdogs. HC West thought this bowl
was a perfect fit giving his young tm a chance at an 8 win ssn. Fla Atl started the ssn 3-1 incl knocking off
Minnesota giving us our Sept 5H Winner. They finished knocking off Troy as a 16 point underdog to earn this
spot as conference champions. Both tms are undervalued and it is unfortunate that they were paired up as we
looked to play on both of them. We do look for an entertaining high scoring gm with both offenses looking for
the ?home run? ball. The match-up with the tall receiving corps on both sides adds to this selection. Over the
L/6 games, both Mem & FAU?s final scores are over 70 ttl ppg and look for another high scoring affair here. FORECAST: OVER 67 RATING: 2?
This is the 15th (7-7) meeting all-time between these 2 as Cincy used to be in CUSA before leaving
for the BE in ?05. In the last meeting in ?04 Cincy won 52-24 as they outgained SM 430-331 and were
+4 in TO?s. HC Jeff Bower has had 14 straight winning seasons and has taken S Miss to bowls in 10 of
11 years. Bower was let go after the ssn finale (new HC Fedora is OkSt?s OC) but will coach here. This
is the 6th straight bowl for SM going 3-2 SU & 2-2-1 ATS incl LY?s 28-7 win at the GMAC (won L/3). This
is Cincy?s 2nd straight, 6th in 8 years & the 9th bowl in school history. Kelly was hired LY with Dantonio
departing & coached Cincy in the International Bowl, a 27-24 win over W Michigan. Several milestones
were set TY incl their 9th win (1st time S/?53), finishing the ssn ranked with 3 sellouts at Nippert Stadium
(most in school history). Kelly was named the BE Coach of the Year and while this is only his 2nd bowl,
he did lead Div II Grand Valley State to two National Titles. The Cats played 6 bowl caliber teams this
year (4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS) including a loss to then-#5 WV 28-23. They have outscored those opponents
29-20 but were outgained 385-383. SM played 2 teams that were in the Top 25 at some point TY (Tenn
& Boise) losing both SU & ATS by a combined 42 points & played 5 bowl teams going 1-4 SU & ATS.
They were outgained 414-333 and outscored 32-21. SM is just 2-4 ATS on grass the L/2Y and 7-16-1
ATS as an AD (0-2 TY) while Cincy is 2-1 ATS on grass TY & 3-1 as an AF.
SM is not known for its offense (#91) but TY avg?d 394 ypg and 28 ppg which is the 2nd highest
S/?98. SM is led by senior QB Young who opened the season avg 199 ypg (54%) with a 4-2 ratio until
an inj vs Boise State and never really got into any rhythm since his return. RB Fletcher ranks #14 in
NCAA in rushing and has eight 100+ yd games. He became just the 3rd SM RB to have B2B 1,000 yd
seasons & also captured the Conerly Award for the top player in Mississippi. Watch for RB Easterling
(PS#17) as he played in only 1 game (burned RS) and is dynamic. The OL has paved the way for 200
rush ypg & 4.6 ypc both of which are highs under Bower allowing 18 sacks (5.2%). SM has always been
defined by their D (our #5 as the highest total they?ve allowed S/?94 is 25 ppg in 2004. The 24 ppg
allowed TY was a CUSA best as the conf had 8 teams allow over 30 ppg. SM, home of the non-BCS
LB U corps, had 3 straight CUSA D POY from 2003-?05 (Coley, Boley, Davis) and MLB McRath fits the
mold as he ranks #13 in NCAA avg 10.9 tpg. The SM secondary ranks #46 in our pass eff D (224 ypg,
57% 20-14 ratio) with CB Sumrall having 5 int while taking one to the house. SM?s ranks #32 in our
ST?s with P Barefoot ranking #24 in the NCAA in net P.
Cincy?s HC Kelly installed a new Coast to Coast offense to compliment an already stout defense,
spark fan interest and compete with the BE?s offensive powers. The result was a school record 441 pts
scored (#14 in NCAA). The Cats have our #25 rated offense with 37 ppg & 436 ypg. Bionic Ben Mauk
transferred from Wake after he suffered a horrific arm inj in LY?s season opener. He beat out Grutza, who
started 11 gms in ?06, but Grutza started 2 games early in the year including a BE POW effort vs Mia,
Oh. Mauk broke a school record throwing for 27 TD?s. Kelly?s fast paced offense features WR Barnett
who set school record with 13 TD rec?s. The OL thinned down (avg loss 25 lbs) to accommodate the
new offense and they avg 6?4? 294, paving the way for 154 ypg (4.1), all?g 20 sks (4.9%). The Cats have
an undersized athletic defense ranking #35 all?g 19 ppg, 371 ypg and #2 in NCAA with 39 TO?s gained.
The D-Line avg 6?2? 250, all?g 106 rush ypg (3.0) with 30 of UC?s 38 sks. They are led by Sr?s DE Hoke
(12 sks) & DT Byrd. The secondary is tied for #1 in the nation with 23 int led by AA CB Mickens & FS
Nakamura. UC has our #36 pass efficiency ranking allowing 265 ypg (60%) with a 13-23 ratio. Cincy
has our #31 ST?s led by the NCAA?s #1 punter in avg, Huber.
Southern Miss made a bizarre decision in letting HC Bower go. All he?s done is produce 14 straight
winning seasons and bowl appearances in 10 of 11 years. With that said it will be an emotional farewell
as this classy HC volunteered to stay on and coach this bowl after his release. Cincinnati meanwhile
lobbied for both the Sun Bowl & Car Care Bowl but because of limited ticket sales in past bowls they
ended up here. SM has 2 key additions on off (East
erling & Johnson back from inj) and a now-healthy
QB. The Eagles also have 16 Alabama kids on their roster which will turn this into a potential upset.
FORECAST: SOUTHERN MISS (+) 24 Cincinnati 27 RATING: 3?
Nevada was at a crossroads after 6 gms (2-4) but the players came together & made a pact to win
out & go to a bowl. While they didn?t win out, they did win 4 of their L/6 (losses by 5 pts comb) to get
to an unprecedented 3rd consec bowl. Since HC Ault?s return, he has guided UN to a record of 23-14
over the L/3Y. UN is 3-4 SU (1-3 ATS) in bowl gms & 1-3 SU (1-2 ATS) under Ault. The Pack?s L/5 bowl
gms have been decided by combined 9 pts with the L/2 by just 1 pt each. UN went 0-4 SU (3-1 ATS) vs
bowl caliber tms TY but 3 of 4 gms ended in heartbreaking fashion. New Mexico has not won in the post
season under HC Rocky Long (0-4 SU & ATS) but this group has a chance to win 9 gms & match ?97?s
tm (best L/25Y). The Lobos are disappointed as they were hoping their 8-4 record would vault them into
a higher MWC bowl. NM took on 4 bowl caliber tms & was 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS being outscored 31-17 &
outgained 354-267 (off avg?d just 95 ypg rush). The Lobos obviously have the home edge as this gm
is being played in their home stadium, but they are hoping to draw more than the 34,111 that showed
up LY (SJSt brought approx 2,500-3,000). Long has devoted all of his bowl practice to preparing for UN
(as opposed to working in younger guys) saying, ?I haven?t seen them, except on TV. They look pretty
darn good on TV.? Both tms took on NMSt & UNLV with NM 2-0 ATS outscoring them 36-20 & outgaining
them 439-408 while UN outscored them 34-29 and outgained them 491-482. UN has 9 seniors among
18 upperclassmen starters and are 4-2 ATS as an AD L/2Y. NM is 3-9 ATS as a HF the L/4Y but this is
the final gm for 19 Sr?s (12 starters) who are determined to get NM?s 1st bowl win in 46 yrs.
UN has our #39 offense which is directed by QB Kaepernick, the ?07 WAC Frosh POY. When starting QB
Graziano was lost for the season (foot injury) in the 5th game, Kaepernick stepped right in & never missed a
beat. In fact, he became an ideal fit for UN?s ?Pistol Offense? with his dual-threat ability to both run & throw.
Since taking over the starting role on Oct 6th (8 gms), Kaepernick has passed for 2,027 yds (253 ypg) with
a 19-2 ratio while rushing for 542 yds (68 ypg). During that span, the Wolf Pack made a concerted effort to
run the ball more & RB Lippincott responded as he led the WAC in rushing while also serving as a viable
receiving option. Over the L/7 gms, Lippincott rushed for 1,016 yds (145 ypg). The OL avg 6?4? 293 & all?d
23 sks (6.5%) while paving the way for 5.0 ypc. UN?s top three WR?s each have big-play ability as each avg
over 18 ypc. TE Bishop only posted 14 rec, but half of them (7) went for a TD?s making him a legitimate RZ
scoring threat. UN?s D is #77 in our rankings & is led by LB Butler who is the Pack?s leading tackler the L/2
yrs. Butler had a rocky start to ?07 after missing the opener (suspended) and another with an injury, but
he stormed his way back into the mix & recorded half of the tm?s 6 int on the ssn. The DL avg 6?3? 272 &
suffered a blow by losing DE Clark for the ssn (pneumonia). UN?s ST?s are rated #97 in our rankings.
Calling the season a slow one for NM would be quite the understatement as fans were looking
forward to a high-flying season behind the arm of QB Porterie. NM was stunned when they lost 10-6
at UTEP despite outgaining them 383-195. Porterie turned it up & threw for a ssn high 342 yds in their
44-34 win over NMSt. His fave targets as the ssn progressed were WR?s Smith (#11 NCAA rec pg, #25
rec ypg) & Brown (#3 MWC rec). The OL avg 6?4? 312 with 4 Sr?s including C Natali, who after suffering
a shoulder inj in ?06, was held out of all contact drills in practice yet still managed to be one of the school
record 8 players named 1st Tm All-Conf. The unit all?d 23 sks (5.8%) while paving the way for 131 ypg
rush (3.4). Overall the offense finished with our #87 ranking. The NM def has been a feared unit in the
MWC as they run a number of stunts & have a way of confusing opponents & getting to the QB quickly
& continuously. This year they backed off somewhat as during a 4 gm stretch the group recorded zero
sks. They finished with 20 & all?d just 127 ypg rush (3.3) to finish #32 in our rankings. The ST?s (#20) unit
boasts the nation?s leading FG K Sullivan (#1 in NCAA FG?s) who re-wrote the MWC record books TY.
New Mexico is making their second straight New Mexico Bowl appearance. Their HC Long is now
0-4 in bowls and does have pressure on him after LY?s loss. Nevada lost their starting QB earlier TY but
the offense was sparked by dual-threat Kaepernick. Speed can contain Nev?s QB and NM?s D is loaded
with quickness. They can also shutdown the Wolf Pack run game as they allowed just 3.3 ypc. NM had
377-280 yd and 20-8 FD edges in LY?s bowl loss to SJSt with 4 TO?s causing their demise. This year
they?ll be a little more conservative to control turnovers.
FORECAST: NEW MEXICO 30 Nevada 23 RATING: 2?
The MWC petitioned the P10 to release UCLA (lost 4 of L/5) so this would not be a rematch from earlier
TY, however the P10 didn?t budge (bowl wanted Cal). This marks the 3rd visit for the Bruins to this bowl
(1-1 SU & ATS) & the 9th ever meeting with BYU (UCLA leads 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS). BYU will make their 3rd
straight visit to the Las Vegas Bowl where they are 1-1 SU & 2-0 ATS. BYU travels very well to Vegas as LY
their gm vs Oreg was the largest gathering to witness a team sporting event in Nevada and earlier TY vs
UNLV, the BYU faithful accounted for 65% of the attendance. UCLA held off a late Cougar charge earlier TY
although BYU had the FD (23-15) & yardage (435-236) edges. Despite the Bruins reaching a bowl in every
ssn under HC Dorrell, he was let go following the loss to USC. DC Walker will assume interim duties and is
a potential replacement. Walker served as DB cch for BYU in ?94. Mendenhall was also rumored to be on
the Bruins? wish list although he denied interest in the job. Under Mendenhall the Cougs are 1-1 SU & 2-0
ATS in bowls. Both played AZ & Utah TY. The Bruins lost both gms SU & ATS being outscored by a 39-17
clip & outgained 428-249. BYU won both gms (SU & ATS) by an avg score of 19-12 and outgained them
by an avg of 408-250. UCLA faced 7 bowl caliber tms going 6-1 ATS despite being outgained by a 330-289
margin. BYU played 6 bowl caliber squads (4-2 SU & 3-3 ATS) outscoring them 28-24 while outgaining
them 464-334. Both tms have 17 upperclassman with the Bruins having the senior edge (12-.
The Cougs have our #25 off avg 31 ppg & 458 ypg. After an ARZ win, BYU suffered B2B losses behind
ASU trans QB Hall. He is expected to be at full strength here as over the L/2 gms he was playing with an inj?d
throwing arm. RFr RB Unga won the job & was named MWC Frosh of Yr becoming the1st frosh at BYU (3rd
in MWC) to rush 1,000+ yds. He needs just 6 yds to break the MWC Fr rush rec?d (AF?s Boyea ?01). The OL
avg 6?5? 317 paving the way for 154 ypg (4.0) and all?g just 17 sks (3.6%). The inj bug hit BYU?s D hard as they
ret?d 7 starters but lost 2 with inj early on. They finished 10th in NCAA in ttl D (our #19 ranking) all?g 19 ppg,
307 ypg with 29 sks. The DL avg 6?2? 271 all?g 92 rush ypg (2.9 ypc, #9 NCAA) and BYU is the only team not
to allow a 100 yd rusher. They are led by DE Jorgensen who finished tied for 9th in NCAA with 12 sks. The
strength of this team is at LB which features 4 of the top 5 tacklers. The secondary was crippled with inj?s incl
2Y starter SS Gabriel who was lost prior to the ssn & FS Gooch was lost for the ssn vs TCU. BYU is the only
team in the NCAA that starts 4 walk-ons in its secondary but still finished with our #18 pass eff D all?g 215
ypg (59%) with an 11-15 ratio. The Cougars have our #66 ST?s ranking led by a KR unit that finished #19 in
the NCAA highlighted by Collie and Mahuika. The KR D ranks #11 in the NCAA allowing just 18.4 ypr.
Injuries were a major concern TY as QB Olson (PS#1 signed with BYU and transferred) started just 5
gms missing substantial time with a knee inj. Bkup QB Cowan didn?t fare much better as he battled multiple
inj?s forcing walk-on rFr Bethel-Thompson & converted WR Rasshan to play throughout the ssn. Olson looks
to be near 100% & will likely start here while Cowan?s status is up in the air after another inj vs USC. The
Bruin RB?s were also bit by the inj with RB Bell tearing his ACL mid-ssn & RB Markey battling turf toe. WR?s
Breazell & Cowan led in receiving despite the chaos at QB. The OL avg 6?4? 308 & is led by C Joseph &
RG Tevaga who helped pave the way for 150 rush ypg (3. while all?g 33 sks (9.2%). UCLA finished with
our #75 overall off. While the off struggled, the Bruin D was suffocating at times posting our #11 overall
ranking. The DL which avg 6?3? 264 is led by sackmaster DE Davis who tallied 22 sks over the L/2Y. UCLA
all?d 115 rush ypg (3.1) with 36 sks. The LB corps is led by MLB Taylor who played valiantly despite also
dealing with nagging inj?s. The secondary is #17 in our pass D rankings all?g 234 ypg (54%) with a 21-13
ratio & quite possibly have 2 of the best safeties in the NCAA in FS Keyes & SS Horton. The Bruins ST?s
finished with our #6 rankings led by the spectacular KR?s of Slater (3 TD?s, #5 NCAA w/30.9 avg).
The situation certainly favors the Cougars as this is their 5th game at this venue in 3 seasons. This
game also is 1 of 2 rematches (CM-Purdue) and UCLA won the 1st 27-17 (-7.5) despite BYU having
a 435-236 edge. The Bruins finished 6-6 but prior to facing USC they still had Rose Bowl aspirations.
They struggled with QB & RB inj?s but the one constant was a defense that kept them in the game and
they finished this season with a 5-0 ATS mark as an underdog. We?ll call for them to have another big
defensive effort slowing down the potent BYU offense.
FORECAST: UNDER 47 RATING: 1?
First meeting. The Pirates are excited about going to Hawaii but are disappointed they are not in the Liberty
Bowl. EC was part of the highest scoring bowl in a 64-61 (2OT) loss to Marshall (?01 GMAC) & is 4-4 (3-4
ATS) in bowls. The Pirates played a tough non-conf slate inc 3 ACC tms & WV (2 Top 10) going 1-3 SU & ATS.
EC has faced 6 bowl tms going 3-3 SU & 4-2 ATS being outgained by 111 ypg & outscored 34-30. EC has 6
senior starters among the 15 upperclassmen. The Pirates are 8-4 ATS on turf, 19-17 SU (25-11 ATS) overall
under Hotlz, 12-3 ATS as an AD & 8-4 ATS vs non-conf under Holtz. Both tms faced S Miss with EC losing
28-21(+1) being outgained 383-300 while Boise dominated 38-16 (-10?) outgaining them 516-345 (most yds
SM surrendered TY). Boise?s hopes of playing in B2B BCS bowls fell short but they still turned in a strong ssn
going 10-2 SU (6-5 ATS) with the two losses coming in AG?s at Wash (24-10, -3) & Hawaii (39-27, +2?). The
Boise players voted to come here vs staying home for the Humanitarian. This is Boise?s 6th cons bowl & its 8th
in 9 yrs & the Broncos are 5-2 SU & ATS. Boise went 3-1 SU & 2-2 ATS vs bowl tms TY. BSU HC Petersen is
23-2 SU & 13-10 ATS in 2 yrs at Boise. The Broncos closed out the ssn with a 4-1 ATS run & will actually be
playing their 2nd cons gm here in Aloha Stadium as they closed out the reg ssn vs Hawaii in the quasi WAC
Championship. While 2,000 BSU fans made the trek to the Islands on Thanksgiving Day weekend, officials
expect this to be the Broncos worst attended bowl game (previous low 1,200 for ?03 Fort Worth Bowl).
BSU has our #18 rated offense led by QB Tharp who entered ?07 with limited experience having
thrown for only 359 yds (64%) with a 2-3 ratio from ?04-?06. After a slow start he turned it on during a
four-gm stretch and threw for 1,206 yds (302 ypg) & 15 TD. LY RB Johnson ran for 1,713 yds & NCAA-high
25 TD & while defenses keyed in on him TY he still finished 3rd in the WAC in rushing & led the conf in
scoring (10.2 ppg) despite missing two gms (bruised kidney). BSU?s backfield also received a boost with
the addition of a pair of talented Fr RB?s in Avery & Harper. Boise had to replace its top trio of WR?s from
LY (James, Raab & Naanee) who combined for 1,777 yds & 14 TD, but WR Childs stepped up in a big
way TY en route to setting a BSU single-ssn rec record. Four of Boise?s five starters returned along the
OL TY which avg 6?4? 305 lbs & paved the way for 4.7 ypc while giving up 18 sks (4.3%). Boise has our
#40 rated defense & racked up 32 sks while limiting tms to 3.4 ypc on the ground. The Broncos? DL avg
6?3? 265 & is anchored by two Jr?s & Sr?s. Its LB corps is led by a quartet of Jr?s in Gingg, Brady, Shields
& Dobbs (led tm in ints). Boise is ranked #14 in pass eff def all?g 212 ypg (54%) with a 16-14 ratio. BSU
features our #14 ST unit led by PK Brotzman who missed just 2 of 17 FG att (from 49 & 51 yds).
EC has our #73 rated offense & is led by 2 QB?s who split time in Pinkney & Kass who played in the
Papajohns.com Bowl LY due to an injury & hit 10-19 (53%) for 138 yds. Holtz uses them as situational QB?s
& it hurt down the stretch as they avg just 174 ypg rush (56%) the L/3 as neither QB could get in a rhythm.
Both QB?s spread the ball around as 7 rec?s have DD catches. RB Johnson was challenged by Holtz coming
into his Sr ssn & answered with a career high in rush yds & became the Pirates? all-time leader in all-purpose
yds. The OL is the best Holtz has had in his 3 yrs but took a lot of tweaking to get it there. The OL is led by
Sr?s Coffman & Butler & the unit avg 6?5? 295 opening holes for 171 ypg (4.7), the most S/?01. The Pirates all?d
24 sks (6.4%) but just 4 in the L/4 gms. The Pirate D ranks #84 but only has 2 Sr def starters & the strength
is the DL. The starting front 4 all?d 146 ypg rush (3.9), its lowest ypc allowed S/?01 & also had 31 tfl. The DL
avg 6?4? 275 & has 20.5 of the teams 26 sks (79%). The LB corps has 3 of the top 5 tacklers but has been
nicked up all year. EC struggled in the secondary & ranks #99 in our pass eff D all?g 291 ypg pass (most in
L/20Y) 64% with a 24-15 ratio. On the ssn they all?d 5 foes 335+ pass ypg. However, the Pirates are +13 in
TO?s ranking #6 in the NCAA. EC is just #95 in ST?s with KR Johnson (28.5) being the lone standout.
The Broncos followed up their undefeated 12-0 ?06 season with a solid 10-2 record. That however is
deemed a disappointment at Boise as a win vs Hawaii would have placed them in the BCS pool. They did
vote to travel to the Islands for a second straight game instead of hosting the Humanitarian Bowl. East
Carolina finished at 7-5 but 3 losses were to BCS schools inc 2 BCS bowl teams (VT & WV). The Pirates will
benefit from the time off to regain their health and they have been a lethal underdog under HC Holtz with a
12-3 ATS mark as an AD. The Pirates are an opportunistic team and will relish this role as a big underdog.
FORECAST: EAST CAROLINA (+) 30 Boise St 34 RATING: 2?
4* Tenn 27-6
3* San Diego 31-10
2* Clev 33-21
2* Houston 17-20
This is their 1st meeting but Utah faces a similar off every yr in MWC foe AF. This is a school record 5th
consec Navy bowl all under former HC Johnson (2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS) & the new HC Ken Niumatalolo (asst HC
with 10 yrs exp at Navy coaching the off) will be coaching his 1st gm. This is also UT?s 5th consec bowl and
they have won their last 6 and covered the last 5. Whittingham has been the DC at Utah S/?95 and this is his
8th bowl trip (6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS). The Utes played 7 bowl elig tms TY and were 4-3 ATS outscoring foes 25-19 but
being outgained 374-323. Navy faced 4 bowl tms and went 1-3 SU & ATS being outscored 35-28 & outgained
474-405. UT was allotted 10,000 tickets but has struggled with sales as LY they sold 1,500 tickets and 4,000 the
yr prior. There is a large Naval presence in the SD area, and the last time Navy attended this bowl (?05 51-30
win over CSU, -3), they had 20,000+ fans which is one reason why Navy was guaranteed a spot last spring
(if they achieved 6 wins). They both played AF and Utah lost 20-12 being outgained 390-313 while Navy won
31-20 but was outgained 474-381. This is the final gm for 17 Ute seniors while Navy has 22 seniors. Utah is
6-2-1 ATS as a fav of 7+ the L/2Y, but Navy was 18-8 ATS as an AD under Johnson. After Utah?s loss to BYU
Nov 24th, they started practicing for Navy right away, even before the bowl matchups were announced. Navy
traditionally takes the wk after Army off for finals and may only practice 8-9 times prior to the bowl.
Navy came into the yr with just 3 returning starters on D, but in the 2nd gm of the yr they lost their
top ret tackler from ?06, LB Sovie and their starting FS Deliz (1 of only 3 seniors in the secondary) for the
yr. After that, the defense struggled mightily with the offense practically forced to score on every poss for
the Mids to win a gm. Luckily Kaheaku-Enhada proved to be a highly proficient triple option QB leading
the tm in rushing and able to get the ball downfield (17.3 yd per comp). Navy?s bevy of talented backs
have helped the Mids become the 1st team in NCAA history to lead the nation in rushing for 3 consec
yrs. Navy?s productive offense (#36) has forced the tm to punt only 21 times TY (least in nation). Navy?s
D finished #117 overall (438 ypg, 36.5 ppg all?d) and last in our pass eff D with 3 true frosh playing major
roles in the secondary. Navy finished with 4 straight wins incl ending their 43 gm losing streak to ND, and
the D held rival Army to 3 pts to clinch a school record 5th consec Commander-In-Chief?s Trophy.
Utah had high expectations heading into the ssn, but those were quickly put on the back burner when
QB Johnson and PS#17JC RB Matt Asiata went out during the 1st game. UT decided to pull the RS off of
Mack (#30 NCAA rushing) who ended the ssn with six 100 yd rushing gms. The Utes were struggling to find
an identity losing to AF to fall to 0-2 before demolishing UCLA 44-6. The next wk they were shutout for the
1st time S/?93 by lowly UNLV and Whittingham issued a challenge to his tm ?to decide who we want to be.?
Johnson returned vs Utah St and it was pretty clear who the Utes wanted to be as they went on to win 7 straight
incl a national TV upset of L?ville in Johnson?s 2nd gm back (312 pass yds). Johnson has missed some bowl
practices (shoulder again) but they are trying to work him in gradually and he should be fine for this one. The
OL has given up 28 sks (7.5%). They have lost 9 starters due to inj since fall camp, 4 of whom were lost for the
ssn and 5 who missed at least one gm. They now take on the nation?s top rush off but could be without their
top rush defender, Long, who suffered a shld?r separation (which Whittingham calls worse than Johnson?s) vs
BYU. He is listed as ?touch and go? for this gm (check philsteele.com). The Utes D rank #2 in both the NCAA
and our in pass eff D and #3 in the nation in scoring D. They have tallied 36 sks TY. MWC ST POY Sakoda
leads the nation for active dual K/P?s in career P?s and yds. Richards ranks #9 in the nation in PR avg.
After starting the ssn 1-3, Utah has the chance to finish with 9 wins for just the 5th time in school history.
LY Navy lost their bowl in heartbreaking fashion on a fmbl?d snap which set up a 37 yd gm winning FG
for BC which should serve as strong motivation. Fortunately Navy?s high-powered off shouldn?t drop-off too
much with new HC Niumatalolo taking over for Johnson who left just 2 wks prior to the bowl. Navy took the
wk off for finals after Army and won?t hit their full allotment of practices but service academies tend not get
distracted with the pageantry surrounding ?bowl week?. Navy?s offense has avg?d 49 ppg the L/5 and they?ve
needed them as their inj depleted D has allowed 40+ pts in 7 gms this ssn. Utah?s D finished the ssn with an
impressive 4 week run (7.5 ppg) but 3 of those gm were vs the #70 (CSU), #84 (NM), & #106 (WY) offenses.
Utah is the more balanced team and we?ll call for a 41-31 Utes win. We?ll also call for the ?over? as Utah can
move the ball on Navy?s D and the Midshipmen will have some new wrinkles on offense with their new HC. FORECAST: OVER 66.5 RATING: 3?
1st ever meeting. This is Memphis? 5th all-time bowl & 4th in 5 yrs under HC West. West is 2-1 SU &
ATS after going 0-3 SU, 2-1 ATS as Clemson?s HC from ?93-?98. Mem?s last bowl was the ?05 Motor City
(38-31 win) where RB D?Angelo Williams set an NCAA rec with 34 career 100+ yard gms (bowl rec 238
yds on the day). For FAU this is their 1st ever bowl as they just started playing IA ball in ?04 becoming the
fastest start-up program to earn a bowl berth. HC Schnellenberger took over the program in ?01 when they
didn?t have a FB team. He is 4-0 SU & ATS in bowls, the last one was a win in the ?93 Liberty Bowl vs Mich
St, 18-7. He also won a Nat?l Championship with Miami in ?83. FAU played 6 bowl-caliber tms going 1-5 SU
& 2-4 ATS being outgained 416-409 & outscored 35-28 incl a loss to Fla. Mem played 3 going 1-2 SU &
ATS being outgained 516-406 & outscored 46-30. They faced 2 common opp TY (Ark St, Mid Tenn). Mem
(0-2 SU & 1-1 ATS) was outgained 440-322 & outscored 28-19 while FAU (2-0 SU & 1-1 ATS) outgained
them 393-237 & outscored them 31-23. Mem has 7 seniors among their 17 upperclassmen starters while
FAU has 5 seniors of their 14. FAU is 2-1 ATS on turf TY while Mem is 7-3 ATS on turf incl a 28-27 (+2?)
win here vs Tulane earlier TY. This is Mem?s 2nd trip to this bowl. In ?03 they broke the nation?s longest bowl
drought (beat N Texas 27-17) & are 3-0 SU & ATS in the Superdome. They are 8-2 ATS as an AD while
FAU is 4-1 ATS as an AF. Mem figures to have the crowd edge bringing 10,000 strong here in ?03.
FAU has our #59 rated off led by QB Smith (6-5 212) who was a 4x SBC POW TY incl the L/2W in
key wins which got them here. Smith matured in the 2H of the ssn avg 301 ypg (61%) with a 14-5 ratio
and going 4-2 to win the SBC Title. FAU has speedy WR?s and also utilizes their TE in the pass gm as 5
players have 23+ catches. The FAU run gm struggled outside the SBC avg just 99 ypg (2.7) although all
5 non-conf foes were BCS schools. RB Pierre led the tm but had zero 100 yd gms and FAU on the ssn
failed to have anyone break the 100 yd plateau. The OL is smallish avg 6?2? 262 with 1 Sr starter and
although inexperienced did improve down the stretch as they all?d 15 sks (3.2%) and opened holes for
127 ypg (3.5) on the year. The D, which had 15 sks, lost 2 good players in DL?s Pinnick & Savidge (knee
inj?s) but still played tough all?g just 142 ypg (4.1) the L/4 gms (ssn 180, 4.. The LB corps may be the
best in the SBC as Joseph & Sincere are #1 & #2 tacklers in the conf. The secondary has had an int in 20
straight gms and rFr Polo has 7 on the yr. The Panthers rank #80 in our pass eff D (238 ypg, 65%, 24-19
ratio) and overall have our #83 ranked D all?g 34 ppg and 417 ypg.
Memphis started the year 2-4 having lost a teammate who was killed, playing 3 gms in 11 days and
losing QB Hankins to inj for 2 games. When Hankins returned he was on fire avg 351 ypg (60%) with a 17-7
ratio as the Tigers went 5-1 down the stretch. Memphis has 6 WR that are 6? or taller & 5 had 30+ catches
led by Calhoun (6?4?) who had four 100+ yd gms the L/6 & WR Singleton (6?8?) who had two 100+ yd games
in the L/4. Memphis struggled to run the ball early due to inj & had zero 100 yd rushers the 1st 6 gms. Sr
Doss, who got healthy the 2H of ssn, had two 165+ yd gms down the stretch. The Tiger O-Line, avg 6?4?
301 with 2 Sr starters led by RG Smith, is #9 in the NCAA all?g just 13 sacks (2.6%) and avg 140 ypg (3.9).
The Tigers have our #67 ranked offense. LY Mem fired DC Joe Lee Dunn after 3 gms & West changed the
3-3-5 to a 4-3. They struggled allowing 178 ypg rush (4.5) and 409 ypg (DL not a high recruiting priority).
This ssn they all?d a staggering 210 ypg (5.2) with 26 TD ranking #110 in NCAA. The DL avg 6?3? 258 with
no seniors listed in the 4 deep (great for ?0. The team only had 14 sks which ranked #111 in the NCAA
and allowed their 3 bowl foes 317 ypg rush (6.. The LB corps was a strength despite losing OLB Greg
Jackson (inj) after 2 gms, Quinton McCrary (left tm in Nov) & Winston Bowens (inj) who filled in for Jackson.
Kasser took over and led the team in tkls. The secondary ranks #96 in our pass eff D all?g 230 ypg (62%)
with a 20-12 ratio. The Tigers allow a staggering 440 ypg and 31 ppg ranking #107 in our D rankings.
Memphis finished the ssn winning 5 of 6 gms incl 3 upsets as underdogs. HC West thought this bowl
was a perfect fit giving his young tm a chance at an 8 win ssn. Fla Atl started the ssn 3-1 incl knocking off
Minnesota giving us our Sept 5H Winner. They finished knocking off Troy as a 16 point underdog to earn this
spot as conference champions. Both tms are undervalued and it is unfortunate that they were paired up as we
looked to play on both of them. We do look for an entertaining high scoring gm with both offenses looking for
the ?home run? ball. The match-up with the tall receiving corps on both sides adds to this selection. Over the
L/6 games, both Mem & FAU?s final scores are over 70 ttl ppg and look for another high scoring affair here. FORECAST: OVER 67 RATING: 2?
This is the 15th (7-7) meeting all-time between these 2 as Cincy used to be in CUSA before leaving
for the BE in ?05. In the last meeting in ?04 Cincy won 52-24 as they outgained SM 430-331 and were
+4 in TO?s. HC Jeff Bower has had 14 straight winning seasons and has taken S Miss to bowls in 10 of
11 years. Bower was let go after the ssn finale (new HC Fedora is OkSt?s OC) but will coach here. This
is the 6th straight bowl for SM going 3-2 SU & 2-2-1 ATS incl LY?s 28-7 win at the GMAC (won L/3). This
is Cincy?s 2nd straight, 6th in 8 years & the 9th bowl in school history. Kelly was hired LY with Dantonio
departing & coached Cincy in the International Bowl, a 27-24 win over W Michigan. Several milestones
were set TY incl their 9th win (1st time S/?53), finishing the ssn ranked with 3 sellouts at Nippert Stadium
(most in school history). Kelly was named the BE Coach of the Year and while this is only his 2nd bowl,
he did lead Div II Grand Valley State to two National Titles. The Cats played 6 bowl caliber teams this
year (4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS) including a loss to then-#5 WV 28-23. They have outscored those opponents
29-20 but were outgained 385-383. SM played 2 teams that were in the Top 25 at some point TY (Tenn
& Boise) losing both SU & ATS by a combined 42 points & played 5 bowl teams going 1-4 SU & ATS.
They were outgained 414-333 and outscored 32-21. SM is just 2-4 ATS on grass the L/2Y and 7-16-1
ATS as an AD (0-2 TY) while Cincy is 2-1 ATS on grass TY & 3-1 as an AF.
SM is not known for its offense (#91) but TY avg?d 394 ypg and 28 ppg which is the 2nd highest
S/?98. SM is led by senior QB Young who opened the season avg 199 ypg (54%) with a 4-2 ratio until
an inj vs Boise State and never really got into any rhythm since his return. RB Fletcher ranks #14 in
NCAA in rushing and has eight 100+ yd games. He became just the 3rd SM RB to have B2B 1,000 yd
seasons & also captured the Conerly Award for the top player in Mississippi. Watch for RB Easterling
(PS#17) as he played in only 1 game (burned RS) and is dynamic. The OL has paved the way for 200
rush ypg & 4.6 ypc both of which are highs under Bower allowing 18 sacks (5.2%). SM has always been
defined by their D (our #5 as the highest total they?ve allowed S/?94 is 25 ppg in 2004. The 24 ppg
allowed TY was a CUSA best as the conf had 8 teams allow over 30 ppg. SM, home of the non-BCS
LB U corps, had 3 straight CUSA D POY from 2003-?05 (Coley, Boley, Davis) and MLB McRath fits the
mold as he ranks #13 in NCAA avg 10.9 tpg. The SM secondary ranks #46 in our pass eff D (224 ypg,
57% 20-14 ratio) with CB Sumrall having 5 int while taking one to the house. SM?s ranks #32 in our
ST?s with P Barefoot ranking #24 in the NCAA in net P.
Cincy?s HC Kelly installed a new Coast to Coast offense to compliment an already stout defense,
spark fan interest and compete with the BE?s offensive powers. The result was a school record 441 pts
scored (#14 in NCAA). The Cats have our #25 rated offense with 37 ppg & 436 ypg. Bionic Ben Mauk
transferred from Wake after he suffered a horrific arm inj in LY?s season opener. He beat out Grutza, who
started 11 gms in ?06, but Grutza started 2 games early in the year including a BE POW effort vs Mia,
Oh. Mauk broke a school record throwing for 27 TD?s. Kelly?s fast paced offense features WR Barnett
who set school record with 13 TD rec?s. The OL thinned down (avg loss 25 lbs) to accommodate the
new offense and they avg 6?4? 294, paving the way for 154 ypg (4.1), all?g 20 sks (4.9%). The Cats have
an undersized athletic defense ranking #35 all?g 19 ppg, 371 ypg and #2 in NCAA with 39 TO?s gained.
The D-Line avg 6?2? 250, all?g 106 rush ypg (3.0) with 30 of UC?s 38 sks. They are led by Sr?s DE Hoke
(12 sks) & DT Byrd. The secondary is tied for #1 in the nation with 23 int led by AA CB Mickens & FS
Nakamura. UC has our #36 pass efficiency ranking allowing 265 ypg (60%) with a 13-23 ratio. Cincy
has our #31 ST?s led by the NCAA?s #1 punter in avg, Huber.
Southern Miss made a bizarre decision in letting HC Bower go. All he?s done is produce 14 straight
winning seasons and bowl appearances in 10 of 11 years. With that said it will be an emotional farewell
as this classy HC volunteered to stay on and coach this bowl after his release. Cincinnati meanwhile
lobbied for both the Sun Bowl & Car Care Bowl but because of limited ticket sales in past bowls they
ended up here. SM has 2 key additions on off (East
erling & Johnson back from inj) and a now-healthy
QB. The Eagles also have 16 Alabama kids on their roster which will turn this into a potential upset.
FORECAST: SOUTHERN MISS (+) 24 Cincinnati 27 RATING: 3?
Nevada was at a crossroads after 6 gms (2-4) but the players came together & made a pact to win
out & go to a bowl. While they didn?t win out, they did win 4 of their L/6 (losses by 5 pts comb) to get
to an unprecedented 3rd consec bowl. Since HC Ault?s return, he has guided UN to a record of 23-14
over the L/3Y. UN is 3-4 SU (1-3 ATS) in bowl gms & 1-3 SU (1-2 ATS) under Ault. The Pack?s L/5 bowl
gms have been decided by combined 9 pts with the L/2 by just 1 pt each. UN went 0-4 SU (3-1 ATS) vs
bowl caliber tms TY but 3 of 4 gms ended in heartbreaking fashion. New Mexico has not won in the post
season under HC Rocky Long (0-4 SU & ATS) but this group has a chance to win 9 gms & match ?97?s
tm (best L/25Y). The Lobos are disappointed as they were hoping their 8-4 record would vault them into
a higher MWC bowl. NM took on 4 bowl caliber tms & was 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS being outscored 31-17 &
outgained 354-267 (off avg?d just 95 ypg rush). The Lobos obviously have the home edge as this gm
is being played in their home stadium, but they are hoping to draw more than the 34,111 that showed
up LY (SJSt brought approx 2,500-3,000). Long has devoted all of his bowl practice to preparing for UN
(as opposed to working in younger guys) saying, ?I haven?t seen them, except on TV. They look pretty
darn good on TV.? Both tms took on NMSt & UNLV with NM 2-0 ATS outscoring them 36-20 & outgaining
them 439-408 while UN outscored them 34-29 and outgained them 491-482. UN has 9 seniors among
18 upperclassmen starters and are 4-2 ATS as an AD L/2Y. NM is 3-9 ATS as a HF the L/4Y but this is
the final gm for 19 Sr?s (12 starters) who are determined to get NM?s 1st bowl win in 46 yrs.
UN has our #39 offense which is directed by QB Kaepernick, the ?07 WAC Frosh POY. When starting QB
Graziano was lost for the season (foot injury) in the 5th game, Kaepernick stepped right in & never missed a
beat. In fact, he became an ideal fit for UN?s ?Pistol Offense? with his dual-threat ability to both run & throw.
Since taking over the starting role on Oct 6th (8 gms), Kaepernick has passed for 2,027 yds (253 ypg) with
a 19-2 ratio while rushing for 542 yds (68 ypg). During that span, the Wolf Pack made a concerted effort to
run the ball more & RB Lippincott responded as he led the WAC in rushing while also serving as a viable
receiving option. Over the L/7 gms, Lippincott rushed for 1,016 yds (145 ypg). The OL avg 6?4? 293 & all?d
23 sks (6.5%) while paving the way for 5.0 ypc. UN?s top three WR?s each have big-play ability as each avg
over 18 ypc. TE Bishop only posted 14 rec, but half of them (7) went for a TD?s making him a legitimate RZ
scoring threat. UN?s D is #77 in our rankings & is led by LB Butler who is the Pack?s leading tackler the L/2
yrs. Butler had a rocky start to ?07 after missing the opener (suspended) and another with an injury, but
he stormed his way back into the mix & recorded half of the tm?s 6 int on the ssn. The DL avg 6?3? 272 &
suffered a blow by losing DE Clark for the ssn (pneumonia). UN?s ST?s are rated #97 in our rankings.
Calling the season a slow one for NM would be quite the understatement as fans were looking
forward to a high-flying season behind the arm of QB Porterie. NM was stunned when they lost 10-6
at UTEP despite outgaining them 383-195. Porterie turned it up & threw for a ssn high 342 yds in their
44-34 win over NMSt. His fave targets as the ssn progressed were WR?s Smith (#11 NCAA rec pg, #25
rec ypg) & Brown (#3 MWC rec). The OL avg 6?4? 312 with 4 Sr?s including C Natali, who after suffering
a shoulder inj in ?06, was held out of all contact drills in practice yet still managed to be one of the school
record 8 players named 1st Tm All-Conf. The unit all?d 23 sks (5.8%) while paving the way for 131 ypg
rush (3.4). Overall the offense finished with our #87 ranking. The NM def has been a feared unit in the
MWC as they run a number of stunts & have a way of confusing opponents & getting to the QB quickly
& continuously. This year they backed off somewhat as during a 4 gm stretch the group recorded zero
sks. They finished with 20 & all?d just 127 ypg rush (3.3) to finish #32 in our rankings. The ST?s (#20) unit
boasts the nation?s leading FG K Sullivan (#1 in NCAA FG?s) who re-wrote the MWC record books TY.
New Mexico is making their second straight New Mexico Bowl appearance. Their HC Long is now
0-4 in bowls and does have pressure on him after LY?s loss. Nevada lost their starting QB earlier TY but
the offense was sparked by dual-threat Kaepernick. Speed can contain Nev?s QB and NM?s D is loaded
with quickness. They can also shutdown the Wolf Pack run game as they allowed just 3.3 ypc. NM had
377-280 yd and 20-8 FD edges in LY?s bowl loss to SJSt with 4 TO?s causing their demise. This year
they?ll be a little more conservative to control turnovers.
FORECAST: NEW MEXICO 30 Nevada 23 RATING: 2?
The MWC petitioned the P10 to release UCLA (lost 4 of L/5) so this would not be a rematch from earlier
TY, however the P10 didn?t budge (bowl wanted Cal). This marks the 3rd visit for the Bruins to this bowl
(1-1 SU & ATS) & the 9th ever meeting with BYU (UCLA leads 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS). BYU will make their 3rd
straight visit to the Las Vegas Bowl where they are 1-1 SU & 2-0 ATS. BYU travels very well to Vegas as LY
their gm vs Oreg was the largest gathering to witness a team sporting event in Nevada and earlier TY vs
UNLV, the BYU faithful accounted for 65% of the attendance. UCLA held off a late Cougar charge earlier TY
although BYU had the FD (23-15) & yardage (435-236) edges. Despite the Bruins reaching a bowl in every
ssn under HC Dorrell, he was let go following the loss to USC. DC Walker will assume interim duties and is
a potential replacement. Walker served as DB cch for BYU in ?94. Mendenhall was also rumored to be on
the Bruins? wish list although he denied interest in the job. Under Mendenhall the Cougs are 1-1 SU & 2-0
ATS in bowls. Both played AZ & Utah TY. The Bruins lost both gms SU & ATS being outscored by a 39-17
clip & outgained 428-249. BYU won both gms (SU & ATS) by an avg score of 19-12 and outgained them
by an avg of 408-250. UCLA faced 7 bowl caliber tms going 6-1 ATS despite being outgained by a 330-289
margin. BYU played 6 bowl caliber squads (4-2 SU & 3-3 ATS) outscoring them 28-24 while outgaining
them 464-334. Both tms have 17 upperclassman with the Bruins having the senior edge (12-.
The Cougs have our #25 off avg 31 ppg & 458 ypg. After an ARZ win, BYU suffered B2B losses behind
ASU trans QB Hall. He is expected to be at full strength here as over the L/2 gms he was playing with an inj?d
throwing arm. RFr RB Unga won the job & was named MWC Frosh of Yr becoming the1st frosh at BYU (3rd
in MWC) to rush 1,000+ yds. He needs just 6 yds to break the MWC Fr rush rec?d (AF?s Boyea ?01). The OL
avg 6?5? 317 paving the way for 154 ypg (4.0) and all?g just 17 sks (3.6%). The inj bug hit BYU?s D hard as they
ret?d 7 starters but lost 2 with inj early on. They finished 10th in NCAA in ttl D (our #19 ranking) all?g 19 ppg,
307 ypg with 29 sks. The DL avg 6?2? 271 all?g 92 rush ypg (2.9 ypc, #9 NCAA) and BYU is the only team not
to allow a 100 yd rusher. They are led by DE Jorgensen who finished tied for 9th in NCAA with 12 sks. The
strength of this team is at LB which features 4 of the top 5 tacklers. The secondary was crippled with inj?s incl
2Y starter SS Gabriel who was lost prior to the ssn & FS Gooch was lost for the ssn vs TCU. BYU is the only
team in the NCAA that starts 4 walk-ons in its secondary but still finished with our #18 pass eff D all?g 215
ypg (59%) with an 11-15 ratio. The Cougars have our #66 ST?s ranking led by a KR unit that finished #19 in
the NCAA highlighted by Collie and Mahuika. The KR D ranks #11 in the NCAA allowing just 18.4 ypr.
Injuries were a major concern TY as QB Olson (PS#1 signed with BYU and transferred) started just 5
gms missing substantial time with a knee inj. Bkup QB Cowan didn?t fare much better as he battled multiple
inj?s forcing walk-on rFr Bethel-Thompson & converted WR Rasshan to play throughout the ssn. Olson looks
to be near 100% & will likely start here while Cowan?s status is up in the air after another inj vs USC. The
Bruin RB?s were also bit by the inj with RB Bell tearing his ACL mid-ssn & RB Markey battling turf toe. WR?s
Breazell & Cowan led in receiving despite the chaos at QB. The OL avg 6?4? 308 & is led by C Joseph &
RG Tevaga who helped pave the way for 150 rush ypg (3. while all?g 33 sks (9.2%). UCLA finished with
our #75 overall off. While the off struggled, the Bruin D was suffocating at times posting our #11 overall
ranking. The DL which avg 6?3? 264 is led by sackmaster DE Davis who tallied 22 sks over the L/2Y. UCLA
all?d 115 rush ypg (3.1) with 36 sks. The LB corps is led by MLB Taylor who played valiantly despite also
dealing with nagging inj?s. The secondary is #17 in our pass D rankings all?g 234 ypg (54%) with a 21-13
ratio & quite possibly have 2 of the best safeties in the NCAA in FS Keyes & SS Horton. The Bruins ST?s
finished with our #6 rankings led by the spectacular KR?s of Slater (3 TD?s, #5 NCAA w/30.9 avg).
The situation certainly favors the Cougars as this is their 5th game at this venue in 3 seasons. This
game also is 1 of 2 rematches (CM-Purdue) and UCLA won the 1st 27-17 (-7.5) despite BYU having
a 435-236 edge. The Bruins finished 6-6 but prior to facing USC they still had Rose Bowl aspirations.
They struggled with QB & RB inj?s but the one constant was a defense that kept them in the game and
they finished this season with a 5-0 ATS mark as an underdog. We?ll call for them to have another big
defensive effort slowing down the potent BYU offense.
FORECAST: UNDER 47 RATING: 1?
First meeting. The Pirates are excited about going to Hawaii but are disappointed they are not in the Liberty
Bowl. EC was part of the highest scoring bowl in a 64-61 (2OT) loss to Marshall (?01 GMAC) & is 4-4 (3-4
ATS) in bowls. The Pirates played a tough non-conf slate inc 3 ACC tms & WV (2 Top 10) going 1-3 SU & ATS.
EC has faced 6 bowl tms going 3-3 SU & 4-2 ATS being outgained by 111 ypg & outscored 34-30. EC has 6
senior starters among the 15 upperclassmen. The Pirates are 8-4 ATS on turf, 19-17 SU (25-11 ATS) overall
under Hotlz, 12-3 ATS as an AD & 8-4 ATS vs non-conf under Holtz. Both tms faced S Miss with EC losing
28-21(+1) being outgained 383-300 while Boise dominated 38-16 (-10?) outgaining them 516-345 (most yds
SM surrendered TY). Boise?s hopes of playing in B2B BCS bowls fell short but they still turned in a strong ssn
going 10-2 SU (6-5 ATS) with the two losses coming in AG?s at Wash (24-10, -3) & Hawaii (39-27, +2?). The
Boise players voted to come here vs staying home for the Humanitarian. This is Boise?s 6th cons bowl & its 8th
in 9 yrs & the Broncos are 5-2 SU & ATS. Boise went 3-1 SU & 2-2 ATS vs bowl tms TY. BSU HC Petersen is
23-2 SU & 13-10 ATS in 2 yrs at Boise. The Broncos closed out the ssn with a 4-1 ATS run & will actually be
playing their 2nd cons gm here in Aloha Stadium as they closed out the reg ssn vs Hawaii in the quasi WAC
Championship. While 2,000 BSU fans made the trek to the Islands on Thanksgiving Day weekend, officials
expect this to be the Broncos worst attended bowl game (previous low 1,200 for ?03 Fort Worth Bowl).
BSU has our #18 rated offense led by QB Tharp who entered ?07 with limited experience having
thrown for only 359 yds (64%) with a 2-3 ratio from ?04-?06. After a slow start he turned it on during a
four-gm stretch and threw for 1,206 yds (302 ypg) & 15 TD. LY RB Johnson ran for 1,713 yds & NCAA-high
25 TD & while defenses keyed in on him TY he still finished 3rd in the WAC in rushing & led the conf in
scoring (10.2 ppg) despite missing two gms (bruised kidney). BSU?s backfield also received a boost with
the addition of a pair of talented Fr RB?s in Avery & Harper. Boise had to replace its top trio of WR?s from
LY (James, Raab & Naanee) who combined for 1,777 yds & 14 TD, but WR Childs stepped up in a big
way TY en route to setting a BSU single-ssn rec record. Four of Boise?s five starters returned along the
OL TY which avg 6?4? 305 lbs & paved the way for 4.7 ypc while giving up 18 sks (4.3%). Boise has our
#40 rated defense & racked up 32 sks while limiting tms to 3.4 ypc on the ground. The Broncos? DL avg
6?3? 265 & is anchored by two Jr?s & Sr?s. Its LB corps is led by a quartet of Jr?s in Gingg, Brady, Shields
& Dobbs (led tm in ints). Boise is ranked #14 in pass eff def all?g 212 ypg (54%) with a 16-14 ratio. BSU
features our #14 ST unit led by PK Brotzman who missed just 2 of 17 FG att (from 49 & 51 yds).
EC has our #73 rated offense & is led by 2 QB?s who split time in Pinkney & Kass who played in the
Papajohns.com Bowl LY due to an injury & hit 10-19 (53%) for 138 yds. Holtz uses them as situational QB?s
& it hurt down the stretch as they avg just 174 ypg rush (56%) the L/3 as neither QB could get in a rhythm.
Both QB?s spread the ball around as 7 rec?s have DD catches. RB Johnson was challenged by Holtz coming
into his Sr ssn & answered with a career high in rush yds & became the Pirates? all-time leader in all-purpose
yds. The OL is the best Holtz has had in his 3 yrs but took a lot of tweaking to get it there. The OL is led by
Sr?s Coffman & Butler & the unit avg 6?5? 295 opening holes for 171 ypg (4.7), the most S/?01. The Pirates all?d
24 sks (6.4%) but just 4 in the L/4 gms. The Pirate D ranks #84 but only has 2 Sr def starters & the strength
is the DL. The starting front 4 all?d 146 ypg rush (3.9), its lowest ypc allowed S/?01 & also had 31 tfl. The DL
avg 6?4? 275 & has 20.5 of the teams 26 sks (79%). The LB corps has 3 of the top 5 tacklers but has been
nicked up all year. EC struggled in the secondary & ranks #99 in our pass eff D all?g 291 ypg pass (most in
L/20Y) 64% with a 24-15 ratio. On the ssn they all?d 5 foes 335+ pass ypg. However, the Pirates are +13 in
TO?s ranking #6 in the NCAA. EC is just #95 in ST?s with KR Johnson (28.5) being the lone standout.
The Broncos followed up their undefeated 12-0 ?06 season with a solid 10-2 record. That however is
deemed a disappointment at Boise as a win vs Hawaii would have placed them in the BCS pool. They did
vote to travel to the Islands for a second straight game instead of hosting the Humanitarian Bowl. East
Carolina finished at 7-5 but 3 losses were to BCS schools inc 2 BCS bowl teams (VT & WV). The Pirates will
benefit from the time off to regain their health and they have been a lethal underdog under HC Holtz with a
12-3 ATS mark as an AD. The Pirates are an opportunistic team and will relish this role as a big underdog.
FORECAST: EAST CAROLINA (+) 30 Boise St 34 RATING: 2?
The Motor City Bowl finally landed a B10 opponent for the 1st time S/?03 as the Boilers dropped their
L/3 gms and 5 of their L/7 after a 5-0 start. This is rematch of a Sept 15th meeting in which the Boilers
won 45-22 after leading 31-0 at the half while compiling 402 yds. PU finished with 586 yds overall despite
5 TO?s including 4 fmbls. CM is 0-14 SU, 3-10-1 ATS vs the Big Ten S/?94 while Purdue is 34-7-1 SU
but 3-5 ATS vs the MAC (2-0 TY). Purdue has gone bowling in 10 of the 11 yrs of Tiller?s tenure (3-6 SU
& 4-5 ATS) with CM being the 1st non-BCS foe. Slow starts have been the norm as Purdue has fallen
behind 95-0 in the L/6 bowls. The Boilers have played 8 gms vs bowl eligible teams (3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS)
being slightly outscored 27.1-26.6 while outgaining those foes 397-388. CM was 1-3 SU and ATS being
outscored 51-25 and outgained 537-427. This is the Boilers? 1st trip to Ford Field where CM is 3-0 SU
and ATS the L/2Y including two MAC Championship games and a 31-14 win over MT in LY?s Motor City
Bowl. CM should have the crowd edge as they expect to sell 15,000 tickets while PU hopes to bring 5,000
fans. PU is 4-1-1 ATS an AF (2-1 TY). The Boilers have their most veteran team yet under Tiller with 9
senior starters and 17 upperclassmen. CM has 9 senior starters and 14 upperclassmen but also the
MAC Freshman of the Year in Antonio Brown. Purdue last played on Nov 17 while CM played Dec 1.
The Boilers started out ?07 on fire winning their first 5 gms (CM, IAA E Ill & 3 tms with losing records) by
25 ppg. QB Painter ?Breesed? through those overmatched foes with an 18-3 ratio. Once PU got to the meat
of their Big Ten schedule reality quickly set in as OSU and Michigan manhandled the Boilers by a combined
71-28 with 3 of PU?s TD?s coming in the L/1:00. PU rebounded to win their next 2 vs Iowa & NW before
stumbling in their L/3. The Boilers had an inconsistent ground game with Sheets having fmbl problems and
Taylor missing 4 gms with a broken arm. The receiving corps had 2 standouts in WR Bryant and TE Keller
(Mackey semis) but 6?4? Lymon suffered a sophomore slump before eventually being kicked off the team.
The OL is large (6?5? 310) and does a good job protecting Painter (23 sks allowed, 4.3%). Boilers are #39 in
our off rankings. PU?s D (#5 returned 9 starters but the undersized front 4 (6?4? 269) struggled vs the run
(149 rush ypg, 4.0 allowed) and failed to generate a strong pass rush (24 sks). The LB?s were solid finishing
as 4 of the team?s top 6 tacklers. Despite inj?s the secondary was greatly improved finishing #32 in our pass
eff D with CB Vinson actually leading the team in tackles, pbu and int. PU had their best ST unit of the Tiller
era finishing #5 with the one of the NCAA?s top KR units (#7) which scored 3 TD led by Bryant.
CM has our #23 offense. Their main weapon is QB LeFevour who is #5 in the NCAA in total offense
as he had over 3,000 yds passing and 1,000 yds rushing joining Vince Young as the only players to
do so. LeFevour attended PU camps in HS but was never offered a scholarship by the Boilers. The
Chippewas also have two RB?s who combined for over 1,000 yds rushing in Hoskins and LY?s leading
rusher Sneed. Their top two WR?s, Brown and Anderson, have combined for 53% of CM?s receptions
and 55% of their receiving yds. The OL avg 6?4? 294 with 3 seniors which has opened holes for 5.0
ypc while allowing just 16 sacks (3.1%). CM has our #112 def allowing 36 ppg with 5 gms over 40 pts
including two over 50 pts. The DL avg 6?3? 264 with 2 seniors allowing 4.1 ypc with 22 sacks led by DE
Zombo, who leads the team in sacks. The top three tacklers are all LB?s led by 2 seniors including Keith,
the MAC?s #2 tackler. The Chippewas? weakest link is the secondary with 4 underclassmen starters as
they have our #110 pass eff D allowing 285 ypg (65%) and a poor 31-16 ratio. CM comes in with our
#91 ranked ST?s unit. Brown was the bright spot of the ST leading the team in KR and PR with 1 TD.
They allowed two return TD?s and 10.4 ypr on punts but just 19.4 on KR.
This matchup gave us a 4H Key Selection winner in the first meeting as Purdue was a 21? point
favorite. The Boilermakers are now a single digit favorite and while CM has the emotional edge and is
thrilled to be here, the disparity in talent will become obvious in the 2H. Purdue will be able to run the
ball against a defense allowing 4.1 ypc and pass the ball against a secondary ranked #110 in our pass
eff defense. Three straight bowl losses and a 24-7 loss to Mayland LY (outgained 429-285) will ensure
that Purdue is ready. There?s also a big edge in coaching with Tiller matching up vs a bowl virgin.
FORECAST: PURDUE 48 Central Michigan 31 RATING: 4?
This will be the 1st meeting between these programs. Texas is making a bowl trip for the 10th straight
year (23-21-2 all-time). Longhorns are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in the Holiday Bowl & are 0-5 ATS S/?95 in non-NYD
bowls. Arizona St (12-10-1 all-time) is 0-2 SU, but 2-0 ATS in the Holiday Bowl (lost 27-4, +18? in last trip
here vs #6 K-St). Sun Devil HC Erickson is 5-5 in bowls (4-6 ATS) and this is the 4th different team he has
guided to the post season. Horns? HC Brown is 9-6 SU & 6-9 ATS (3-6 ATS w/UT) in bowls. ASU & UT are
both disappointed not to be playing on NYD. ASU did sell their allotment of tickets, but Texas might have the
fan edge due to the Longhorns? faithful fans. ASU is 4-2 SU & 3-3 ATS vs bowl caliber tms outscoring opp?s
on avg 30-28 & being outgained 381-378. UT is 4-2 SU & 3-2-1 ATS vs bowl caliber teams outscoring foes
on avg 36-32 & outgaining them 464-432. Texas has 8 senior starters with 15 upperclassman (68%) while
ASU has 10 senior starters with 18 upperclassman (82%). The Sun Devils are 6-16 ATS as AD?s, incl TY?s
loss in Eugene (w/Dixon). Horns are 2-7-1 ATS as an AF (including LY?s bowl). Texas has had 8 more days
to prepare as ASU finished up on Dec 1st. While UT (#6) & ASU (#26) both rank high offensively, the Sun
Devils have a slight def edge (#14-32), and have played a stronger sked (#9-25).
QB Carpenter flourished in Erickson?s system increasing the tms ppg avg from 26.8 to 32.2 TY.
The ground gm was a surprising plus for the 2nd consec yr despite #1RB Torain going down mid-ssn
w/inj as Herring & Nance did a solid job in his absence. WR Jones continues to be the deep threat in
the receiving corps while McGaha leads the tm in rec & rec yds but surprisingly has yet to reach the
EZ. ASU?s OL avg 6?5? 315 and is full of experience with 4 Sr?s & 1 Jr paving the way for 147 ypg (3.4)
but surprisingly allowed a Pac 10 high 51 sks (only SYR & ND allowed more nationally). Altogether
the offense has our #26 ranking. For the 2nd straight ssn, ASU?s def started on fire holding 4 of their
first 5 opponents to 14 pts or less. The DL avg 6?3? 267 & is led by Davis and Vasquez allowing 101
ypg (3.4) on the ground while recording 27 ttl sks. The LB corps is led by James who led the tm in
tkls (37 more than #2). The ASU secondary is ranked #6 in pass eff def allowing 232 ypg (52%) with
a 17-17 ratio. They are led by a dangerous CB in Tryon & playmaking SS Nolan. ASU finished with
our #14 overall defense. First yr K Weber had an AA ssn converting on all but 1 of his FG attempts
earning the Groza Award in the process. The Sun Devils finished with our #39 ST ranking.
Texas has had one of the most inconsistent seasons under Brown, but he is the only active IA HC
to guide his tms to 9+ wins in 11 consec ssns. After B2B opening Big XII losses, the Longhorns avg win
was by 19 ppg while they outgained foes by 126 ypg before running into an emotional A&M squad in
their ssn finale. Brown still had UT one gm from a Title shot & a possible BCS bowl. Soph QB McCoy
had a little slump as he tossed an int in every gm TY except vs Rice (#105 pass eff D) & ISU (#106).
The rushing attack was stellar led by Charles with six 100+ yd gms including a career best 290 (8.
vs Nebraska. The Longhorns came into TY with one of the most explosive WR corps in the country, but
suffered a huge loss when Sr Sweed had ssn ending wrist surg at mid-ssn. Sr Jones & former minor
league baseball player Cosby stepped up as the primary targets. The OL avg 6?5?? 305 with NO senior
starters but 1st Tm All-Big 12 Sr LT Hills (6?6?? 305) broke his left fibula on 11/10 & Sr C Griffin (6?4?? 285)
tore an ACL on 11/3 & going into the bowl they are very inexperienced with just 1 upperclassman in the
3 deep. The DL avg 6?3?? 284 with 2 senior starters & this is a deep unit allowing 3.0 ypc & UT is ranked
#10 in NCAA in rush D all?g just 99 ypg. UT has a lot of talent in the secondary, but ranks #56 (all?g 276
ypg, 62%, 20-14 ratio). Texas has our #6 ranked offense, #32 defense & #25 sp tms.
This bowl features a pair of HC?s with National Championships. Both teams have a propensity to fall
behind early and rally back. Texas had an uneven season and did not win & cover consec games this
year and finished their season getting upset by A&M for a 2nd straight year. ASU did finish by beating
UA but failed to cover any of their final 4 gms. As you can see by the checklist, we rate these teams even
but the Sun Devils get the call being a team thrilled to be here vs a team that is 0-5 ATS on non-NY Day
bowls and that expected to be a national contender or at the minimum a BCS bowl team.
FORECAST: ARIZONA STATE (+) 35 Texas 32 RATING: 2?
This will be the 6th meeting and Boston College holds a 3-1-1 SU & 1-1 ATS record. This is BC?s 9th
consecutive bowl game winning 7 in a row SU (6-1 ATS). BC played in the then-Carquest Bowl in ?94 &
defeated Virginia 31-13. Michigan St returns to the post season for the first time S/?03. They are 7-10 SU
(5-8 ATS) all-time in bowls and this is their first trip to this bowl. Dantonio is 1-0 SU & ATS in the bowls as
a HC with a 32-14 win over Marshall in the ?04 Ft Worth Bowl. This is Jagodzinski?s first year as a HC &
first bowl game. The Eagles have won 10 gms in B2B years for the 1st time in BC history. These 2 have
faced 2 common opp?s TY (BG & ND) and the Eagles outscored those opp?s 41-19 while the Spartans had
a 30-16 edge. BC has faced 7 bowl caliber teams (Virginia Tech twice) and outscored those opp?s 27-24
and outgained them 436-358. MSU had the tougher overall sked facing 9 bowl caliber teams outscoring
them 34-31 and outgaining them 427-388. MSU has 15,000 alums who live in Florida and should be
well represented as they finished the year winning their last 2 to earn this bid. BC fans are known as
poor travellers. The Eagles are 4-11 ATS as an AF (0-2 TY) while MSU was 3-0 ATS as an AD TY. The
Eagles were in the ACC Championship game on Dec 1 while MSU has not played since Nov 17th. BC
has 8 seniors and 14 upperclassmen starters while MSU has 10 seniors and 17 upperclassmen.
Even though BC finished #2 in the ACC and #14 overall they were still passed up by the Chick-fil-A
and Gator Bowls. This season BC had a lot of ?firsts? beginning with a first year coach, 8-0 record for
the first time since 1942, beat Miami for the first time since 1984 and won their division & played in the
ACC Championship game for the first time. They can send the seniors out with just 12 losses in their 4
years, the winningest class ever. BC is led by the ACC POY & Unitas Award winner QB Matt Ryan (#3
NCAA total pass yds), who broke Doug Flutie?s BC season record for TD passes. RB Callender is not
only the top rusher but leads the teams in rec?s. The OL avg?s 6?6? 292 with 2 senior starters. BC has only
allowed 19 sks TY (3.1%) but also only avg?d 105 ypg rush (3.6). BC is led by the nation?s #1 rushing D
which allowed only 68.2 ypg (2.2). The DL avg 6?3? 274 with just 1 senior starter and the defense posted
34 sacks. Herzlich & Dunbar (hampered by sprained ankle) are the top 2 LB?s with a combined 16.5 tfl.
BC is #24 in scoring D, however MSU scored 83 pts in the last 2 gms (Purdue & Penn St). The Eagles
have our #63 pass eff D (#33 NCAA) allowing 261 ypg (60%) with a 19-21 ratio. The secondary is led
by Thorpe finalist FS Silva. BC has our #50 sp tms. The loss of LS Jack Geiser (knee) became costly in
the ACC title game when his backup was slow on a couple of snaps and 2 kicks were blocked.
The 3rd time may finally be the charm as Mark Dantonio is the third MSU HC hired since Nick
Saban left. Dantonio brought the Spartans some much needed toughness and discipline and scrapped
the team?s spread to go with a power running game. Luckily Dantonio had the horses to do it as speedy
Ringer and bruising Caulcrick combined for 2,159 yds and 27 TD?s. QB Hoyer steadily built confidence
in his first year as a starter and finished #2 in the B10 in pass eff. WR Thomas went from a little used JC
transfer to the team?s go-to receiver. TE Davis played both ways and finally lived up to his vast potential.
The huge OL (6?6? 310 avg) started 5 upperclassmen and paved the way for 4.4 ypc (4.0 in ?06) although
they did allow 30 sks (8.4%). MSU is one of 9 NCAA teams to avg 200 ypg both rushing & passing and is
#17 in our off rankings. The Spartans have struggled for years to develop a pass rush but that changed
under ex-DC Dantonio as MSU finished #12 in the NCAA with 37 sks. The DL was anchored by ?The
Sack Master? DE Saint-Dic who had a league record 8 FF. True frosh LB Jones led the team in tackles
in an impressive debut. The secondary was a weak spot with preseason All Conf FS Wiley benched at
times and MSU playing true frosh and ex-WR?s at CB. MSU finished #79 in pass eff D and #50 in our
overall defensive rankings. MSU finished #83 in ST?s with KR Thomas (28.1) the lone standout.
The line may look surprising with a 10-3 BC team only favored by a FG vs a 7-5 Mich St squad.
BC did drop the ACC title game and throughout this entire season they felt they were heading to a BCS
bowl. This team lived on TO?s but only had 3 int in the L/6gm of the season and are now without top
sackman DL Albright. Michigan St won their L2 both as underdogs and all 5 of MSU?s losses were by
7 pts or less with 2 coming in OT. MSU?s emotions are also the polar opposite of BC?s as they thought
they were headed to Detroit to play a MAC team and now get a trip to Orlando and Disney World.
FORECAST: MICHIGAN ST (+) 31 Boston College 30 RATING: 2?
This is the 2nd Texas Bowl and the 25th meeting between SWC/CUSA foes who last met in ?04. UH has
lost L/7 (1-6 ATS) in the series. This is TCU?s 2nd trip in 3 years (former Houston Bowl) and their 9th bowl
trip in 10 years. This is the Cougars 18th bowl (7-9-1 all-time) but they have not won a bowl game S/?80. HC
Briles took the Cougars to 4 bowls in the L5Y but left for the Baylor job and DB cch Chris Thurmond will be
the interim coach as new HC Sumlin will remain with Oklahoma for the bowl. He is considering hiring other
asst?s to help coach in this one as both co-OC?s Montgomery and Clements joined Briles? staff. TCU clinched
a bowl bid battling back from a 17-0 deficit vs SDSt in their finale, turning out the 3rd largest offensive output
in school history. Houston was looking to repeat as CUSA Champs but got hammered by Tulsa 56-7. LY the
Cougs lost the Liberty Bowl 44-36 (+5) to S Carolina. TCU is 3-3 SU, 3-2-1 ATS under HC Gary Patterson in
the post season. The Cougs faced 4 bowl caliber teams TY going 0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS, outgaining them 440-416
but being outscored 43-23 with 3 of those gms being their lowest pt ttls of the yr. TCU took on 5 bowl caliber
opps and went 2-3 ATS outscoring foes 21.8-21.6 and outgaining them 344-304. UH went 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS
in bowls under Briles (all as dogs), but this is just a few miles from campus. The Cougs are 5-3 ATS as an AD
(1-2 TY) and 10-5 ATS on grass & have played at Reliant Stadium twice, a 10-7 loss to Rice in ?04 (-4) and a
38-24 loss to Oregon (+7?) in ?05. TCU was 0-3 TY as an AF and is just 10-18-1. They are however, 19-12-1
ATS on grass the L/4Y and 10-7-1 the L/2Y as a fav of a FG or more. The Frogs have 16 upperclassmen (9
Sr?s) in the starting lineup. Houston has 9 seniors among their 19 upperclassmen starters.
TCU was the media darling before the ssn, having the Preseason Off and Def POY?s. Unfortunately, DL
Blake faced medical probs and never played to his potential (missed parts or all of 5 gms). The Off POY Brown
was inj?d and DNP in 2 of the 1st 3. He returned vs SMU but his production fell as he was bothered by a knee
inj and coaches made the decision to put the ball in RB Turner?s hands. Turner also missed parts of 6 gms but
over the L/4 avg?d 109 ypg rush (5.2) inc a career high 226 yd vs SDSt. Brown broke his ankle vs UNLV and will
not be available. After the AF loss, TCU decided to go with the QB who was not turning the ball over. Both QB?s
Marcus Jackson and Andy Dalton saw PT, and Patterson was true to his word, as each was pulled after a TO.
The OL avg 6?5? 296 with just 1 Sr and has all?d 21 sks (5.1%) and paved the way for 169 ypg (3.. Overall they
finished with our #57 rated off. Hiding in the shadows of Blake for the L/3Y was DL Ortiz (3x 1st Tm MWC), and
he stepped up ranking #28 in the NCAA with 15.5 tfl while leading our #16 def. The D all?d just 109 ypg rush
(3.0) and tallied 36 sks. David Roach leads our #8 pass eff D that allows 211 ypg (53%) with a 12-16 ratio. TCU
has our #1 ranked ST?s unit led by PK Chris Manfredini (tied #13 in NCAA in FG?s) and P Derek Wash (#13 net).
PR Brian Bonner ranks #18 in the NCAA in PR and the Frogs give up 17.4 ypr on KR and 5.8 ypr on PR.
The Cougars have avg?d more than 438 ypg in 4 of the L/5Y. They are one of the most balanced teams
in the NCAA avg 240 ypg on the ground and 273 thru the air. After losing QB Kevin Kolb to the NFL, Briles
instituted a 2 QB system with rFr Keenum and soph Joseph. Keenum saw a majority of the action down
the stretch and ranks #16 in NCAA in pass eff. WR Avery ranks #4 in the NCAA in ypg rec and has legit
4.2 spd. RB Anthony ?Quick Six? Alridge is another legit 4.2 guy, finished #13 in NCAA in all-purp yds. The
Cougs OL avg 6?3? 291 led by RT Akeroyd and RG Bloesch and have 2 Sr?s on the front line. The OL opened
up holes for 240 ypg rush good for #10 in NCAA and the 5.1 ypc are the most S/?99 but they all?d 29 sks
(7.3%). The DL avg just 6?3? 276 led by CUSA sack leader Hunt and the Houston D usually wins the 4Q
allowing just 54 pts on the yr. The LB corps is led by the duo of Allen & Lubojasky who help plug holes as
Houston allowed 3.9 ypc rush which is its lowest S/?02. The secondary is led by SS Schwartz who missed
LY due to inj but has bounced back and leads the team in tkls. SS Kenneth Fontenette has a tm leading 4
int as the Cougs are ranked #47 in our pass eff D all?g 224 ypg (51%) with a 28-13 ratio. Overall the Cougs
have our #43 offense, #78 def and #84 ST?s with KR Avery #16 in the NCAA.
Houston was thinking CUSA championship but they were mauled vs Tulsa 56-7 and are now dealing with
the mass exodus of their coaching staff to Baylor. TCU recovered after losing both the pressn off & def POY?s
for a period of time and did win 3 of their L/4 with the loss being a cover at bowl bound BYU. This game is a
classic matchup of off vs def and in LY?s bowl TCU held N Ill to just 60 yards of TOTAL off. The Horned Frogs will
battle for next season while the Cougars are playing for interim coaches and haven?t won a bowl since 1980.
FORECAST: TCU 35 Houston 24 RATING: 2?
This is the 1st meeting and only the 4th time MD has played a P10 tm in school history with only one in
a bowl (Aloha Bowl vs Wash ?82). This will be MD?s 1st bowl in the state of California but they do have 5,000
alumni between LA & San Fran. This will be MD?s 5th bowl game in 7 yrs and their 22nd bowl appearance
(9-10-2). The Terps have won their L/3 bowl gms, outscoring those opp?s 95-17. Friedgen is 3-1 SU & ATS in
bowl gms which is the most wins by any MD coach. LY MD defeated Purdue 24-7 (+1) in the Champ Sports
Bowl in a game the Terps had a 429-285 yd edge. The Terps have faced 8 bowl caliber tms and were just
3-5 SU & ATS, being outscored 27-24. MD is 42-33 ATS on grass under Friedgen. OSU played the tougher
schedule TY (#11-44). After winning 7 of their final 8 LY to earn a Sun Bowl bid (39-38 win over Mizzou),
the Beavers continued their 2H surge again TY winning 6 of their L/7 (6-1 ATS) to earn their 7th bowl in 9
seasons. OSU has won their last 3 post season trips (2-1 ATS). The Beavers faced 7 bowl caliber teams
and were 3-4 SU & ATS being outscored by an avg of 30-21. OSU has 13 senior starters incl 8 on def giving
them the experience edge as the Terps have 8 senior starters with just 3 on the offensive side of the ball.
The Terps outscored their opp?s 25-22 but were outgained 356-351. The Terps? offense (#53 ranking),
which has been decimated by injuries (only 3 players have started all 12 gms), avg?d 424 ypg their final
3 games. QB Turner has been solid since stepping in for Steffy who was inj?d vs Rutgers. RB?s Lattimore
(#1 ACC scoring TDs) and Ball became just the 2nd duo in MD history to each post 10+ rush TDs in the
same season. WR Heyward-Bey, a frosh AA in ?06, leads the Terps in rec?s. OG?s Crummey and Thomas
were out with fractured fibulas, while LT Burley has missed quite a bit of time w/an ankle inj. Crummey
did return for the season finale. MD all?d 38 sks TY (12%, #107 in NCAA). The Terps defense has our #30
ranking. The DL avg 6?4? 293 with 2 Sr starters but the defense only has 23 sk, while all?g 137 rush ypg
(3.9). LB Henderson led the team in tkl in all but 2 gms despite being hampered by inj the final 7 wks. MD
is +7 in TO?s. They are ranked #70 in our pass eff D all?g 219 (60%) with a 13-12 ratio. MD had to replace
their starting P, K and top KR TY and their only returning specialist, PR Oquendo, was lost prior to the BC
game (knee inj) but they do have the #2 KR def in the NCAA. MD finished with our #48 ST unit.
After heavy competition at the QB position during fall camp, HC Riley decided to go with a QB
rotation for OSU?s first 2 gms of the ssn. QB Canfield became the full-time starter in wk 3 but struggled
with accuracy issues early throwing a nation leading 13 int through the AZ gm. He then suffered a shldr
inj 3 gms later vs USC allowing bkup Moevao to assume starting duties. Moevao was able to guide
OSU to 3 straight wins (3-0 ATS) to end the year and may have earned the starting job for this one
(Canfield possibly available). RB Bernard became the #2 all-time rusher in school history after a 3rd
consec 1,000+ yd ssn and should return for the bowl after missing the Civil War with a knee inj. The
WR position took a big blow when standout Stroughter (74 rec, 17.5 in ?06) took a Med RS forcing true
frosh WR?s Rodgers and Catchings to accept bigger roles behind starters Brown & Powers. The OL
avg 6?3? 309 and paved the way for 167 ypg rush (4.1) led by C DeVan & RG Schuening (49 consec
starts). OSU allowed 31 sks TY (7.5%) & finished with our #49 overall offense. The DL avg 6?2? 272
with 4 Sr starters. OSU uses a heavy rotation on the line keeping players fresh as they all?d 75 ypg
(2.1) on the ground finishing #2 in the nation. The LB spot also consists of 3 senior starters with team
captain Doggett leading the way on a tm that finished with the #6 overall def. The secondary finished
#10 in pass eff D allowing 238 ypg (53%) with an 18-20 ratio. Former Groza winner Serna had another
fine year and after LY?s starting P quit the tm just prior to the ssn, Serna took on double duty for the
first time since HS. OSU finished with our #86 ST unit.
Maryland suffered as much attrition as any team in the country and it showed as they dropped 3 of
their L/5 games. Five weeks of healing will have this team in the best shape they?ve been in all season.
OSU had to adjust to losing their top WR as well as finishing the year with their backup QB. Maryland
is the better offensive team while OSU has a shutdown defense. We side with Friedgen?s offense to be
able to dissect the Beavers? defense. The Fridge has won his L/3 bowls by an avg of 32-6 and should
get enough out of his defense that is facing a QB unit with a 10-20 ratio.
FORECAST: MARYLAND (+) 23 Oregon State 20 RATING: 3?
These teams met in 2006, a 24-13 WF win (+6?) and Conn upset Wake on the road in ?03, 51-17 as a
9 pt dog. Conn is 2-5 ATS the L/7 vs teams from the ACC with 2 straight covers. This is the Huskies? 2nd
bowl ever after they defeated Toledo in the ?04 Motor City 39-10 (+3?). The Huskies went from 4-8 LY to
9-3 tying for the most regular ssn wins in the program?s 109 year history, its 1st ever national ranking and
won a share of BE Title. A soft non-conf schedule, 2 blown calls and favorable home field weather were
contributing factors. Conn has played 6 bowl caliber teams with only 1 outside of their conf (UVA). They
were dogs in 5 and went 3-3 SU & 4-2 ATS despite being outscored 27-20 & outgained 441-318 benefitting
from their +13 TO margin. WF also faced 6 bowl caliber teams going 3-3 SU & ATS being outscored
28-26 & outgained 366-362. Conn was 2-2 as an AD TY but is 4-11 since 2004. Conn fans travelled well
their last bowl (10,000+) & sold out TY?s allotment of 12,500 tickets. WF should have the crowd edge with
17,500+ tix sold and the bowl is just over an hour away. The Huskies have 4 senior starters among 13
upperclassmen while WF has 16 upperclassmen starters incl 9 seniors. These 2 played 2 common opp?s
TY (Duke & UVA) and WF outscored them 29-27 but was outgained 347-326 while UC outscored them
31-16 and outgained them 371-251, however both teams lost to UVA 17-16. This will be WF?s 8th bowl
appearance but marks the first time WF has been to bowl games in consecutive years. The Deacons are
4-3 SU all-time in bowl games (3-3 ATS) incl their Orange Bowl loss LY. This is Grobe?s 7th year as HC
and his 3rd bowl appearance (1-1 SU & ATS). WF is just 4-7 ATS as an AF and 5-4 ATS on grass since
installing turf LY (1-3 TY). Conn plays on grass & was 2-9 as an AD from ?04-?06 but went 2-2 TY.
Conn is the most recent surprise out of the BE or this year?s Rutgers of 2006. The Huskies offense has
our #71 ranking, avg 358 ypg & 28 ppg. Edsall began the season returning 8 starters on offense but 6 were
sophs and a 1st year JUCO QB. Lorenzen transferred from Palomar CC where he was a JCAA. Last year?s
QB DJ Hernandez switched to WR. Lorenzen didn?t put up the flashiest numbers but manages the offense
very well. RB Brown started the first 6 gms but was hampered by injury & platooned the rest of the year with
Dixon. The Huskies got better WR play TY from Hernandez (2 QB?s on field), Kanuch & NFL prototype Jeffers.
The OL avg 6?3? 301 & has paved the way for 165 ypg rush (3.9) but all?d 28 sks (8.5%). UC?s defense has
our #51 ranking all?g 19 ppg, 346 ypg with 28 sacks. The DL avg 6?2? 267 all?g 159 ypg (4.4) rush. The heart
of the defense is at LB led by Sr Lansanah. The defense is tied for #7 in the NCAA in TO margin & tied for #3
in int with 22. They have our #21 pass eff defense avg 188 ypg (58%) with an 11-22 ratio. The Huskies have
our #58 ST?s ranking. Edsall experimented with Tyvon Branch in 2005 as a KR where he fumbled 3 times vs
WV but the test panned out this year as he finished #21 in NCAA & had 2 TD returns.
After starting the year 0-2, the Deacons won 8 of their L/10. Under Grobe, WF is 19-7 SU over the L/2Y, the
most successful 2 yr stretch in school history. However, after being the ACC Champs LY & making their appearance
in the Orange Bowl, this is a step down. WF has a somewhat conservative passing game, led by QB Skinner, as
they have a high completion rate (72%), but avg just 191 ypg pass. Skinner (missed 2 gms w/shldr inj), however,
threw more than twice as many int TY (13) as he did as a rFr LY (5). They do have a big-play threat at WR in
Moore (#1 rec/gm in ACC) and rFr TB Adams (ACC Rookie POY) really stepped up and finished 3rd in the ACC
rushing. The OL, led by AA C Justice, avg 6?4? 309, allowing 26 sks (7.3%) and 143 ypg (3.3). Overall, WF has
our #70 ranked off. The DL, with 3 Sr starters, avg 6?3? 278 and is allowing 109 ypg rush (3.1) but the D (#3 had
just 27 sks. WF has our #22 pass eff D allowing 242 ypg (54%) with a 20-18 ratio. CB Alphonso Smith (#1 NCAA
in int) and LB Curry have combined 6 IR TD and WF has scored 10 non-off TD?s (#1 NCAA). The Deacons have
the edge on sp tms with our #28 ranking. K Swank is just the 2nd player in WF history with more than 100 PAT.
Conn comes in with the better record but they are still an overrated team. A bad call vs Temple and a
missed fair catch pen vs L?ville would drop their record to 7-5 plus UC was helped by weather in 2 other gms.
WF?s HC Grobe deserves his accolades as the Deacons have 19 wins the L/2 ssns which matched their
regular season record in the previous 4 yrs combined. After rumors of him leaving for Ark, Grobe signed
an extension with WF. While the units are comparable it is a rarity that a tm gets shutout on our checklist
as every category is either even or gives Wake the edge. Conn is second to last among bowl teams having
been outgained by 123 ypg vs bowl caliber opponents. Wake has always been an outstanding underdog
but they?ve now gone 5-1 ATS as a TD or less favorite. FORECAST: WAKE FOREST 27 Connecticut 20 RATING: 2?
This is the 2nd meeting between these two schools with the previous meeting a 35-28 MSU (-4?)
win in ?97. CUSA Champ UCF is off a 44-25 win vs Tulsa avenging their 2005 championship loss. For
CUSA members this is the bowl invite you want because it means you finished #1 in the conference
& after missing out on a bowl game LY the Knights are excited. This is just the 12th season in IA ball
for the Knights and their 2nd ever bowl game as they lost the 2005 Hawaii Bowl to Nevada 49-48
(+2?) in OT on a missed xp. HC George O?Leary was the TY?s CUSA COY (named Bobby Dodd Nat?l
COY in ?00 at GT) and is 2-3 SU & 3-2 ATS in bowl games. SEC COY Croom is coaching his first
bowl and this is MSU?s first bowl trip since ?00. MSU sold out their allotment of 30,000 tickets while
UCF is having trouble selling their 10,000 ticket allotment (7,500 sold as of presstime). UCF is 4-3
SU and 5-2 ATS vs bowl teams TY while MSU is 3-5 SU & 4-4 ATS. UCF is 1-8 ATS as an AF &
MSU is on a 7-2-1 ATS run as an AD with 4 outright upsets the L/2Y. UCF has 6 senior starters &
14 upperclassmen & MSU has 7 seniors & 18 upperclassmen. UCF is just 3-10 ATS vs non-conf
foes under O? Leary. Both teams beat UAB TY with MSU having a greater margin of victory (30-13
to 45-31) but UCF outgained UAB 506-343 while MSU was actually outgained 288-284.
UCF has our #44 rated offense and QB Israel really matured the 2H of the season during their 7
game win streak avg 177 ypg (67%) with a 10-4 ratio showing great poise. RB Smith had a Heisman-like
season leading the NCAA in both rushing and TD?s. Smith exploded during a 7 game streak breaking
200 yds 3x?s including a career high 320 vs UAB all as a junior (likely to test the NFL waters). Smith
who broke Marcus Allen?s single ssn rush attempt record is now just 181 yds from breaking Barry
Sanders? single season rush record of 2,628 yds and has avg 122 yds in the 1H of games. The OL
with 2 senior starters avg 6?4? 304 opening holes for 243 ypg (5.1), both school records, and allowed
17 sacks (5.3%). With all the talk of Smith the D seems to have been forgotten but after all?g 116
points (58 ppg) to EC and USF they all?d just 149 points (21.3) in the L/7. The DL is led by 2 seniors
and avg 6?3? 288 and leads CUSA in rush ypg all?d at 131 (3.7) and the D tallied 38 sks. The LB corps
took a hit in the offseason when they lost WLB Richards to inj and in the CUSA Champ game lost #4
tklr Hogue to a broken hand so they will be thin. The secondary is the best in CUSA and ranks #12 in
our pass eff D (248 ypg, 56%, 26-23 ratio) with their 23 int tied for #1 in NCAA. Overall the D ranks
#56. UCF has a huge edge on sp tms (#9-103) with solid PK and return gms.
Croom said his team performed ahead of schedule this year reaching a bowl with a 7-5 record.
Returning starting QB Henig was inj?d in the 3rd gm and 2nd string QB Riddell suffered a torn ACL
in gm 5 which left true frosh Carroll in charge of MSU?s #92 offense. Carroll started out throwing 137
passes without an int, but finished with a 5-6 ratio in the L/3 gms and was replaced for 2 drives by
Henig in the Egg Bowl. RB Dixon was in Croom?s doghouse at various times during the ssn losing
his starting job to FB Ducr? at mid-season but regaining it the following gm after rushing for 152 yds
& 3 TD vs UAB. With the inconsistency at QB, top WR Burks? numbers fell almost by 50% from LY.
MSU?s #40 defense all?d 159 ypg rush (4.2) but gave up over 200 yds rush in 5 gms TY and MSU
finished #34 in our pass D rankings (182 ypg, 54%, 20-15 ratio). FS Pegues is a converted CB who
led the MSU comeback vs Ole Miss with a 75 yd PR TD late 4Q.
Though MSU is excited to be here and will have a huge crowd edge UCF has the better skill players,
a solid D, strong sp tms and would love to knock off just their 2nd SEC tm in school history (1-12 SU,
7-5 ATS). This is only the third time UCF has had more rush yards than pass yards led by All-American
RB Kevin Smith. Miss St will hear about his talents for the next several weeks and will be ready for the
challenge as he is just 181 yards from breaking the all-time rushing record. The Bulldogs have one of
the fastest defenses the Knights have faced and their outside speed can contain Smith. Although MSU
has not been to a bowl since 2000 their tough SEC schedule and crowd edge plus the indignity of being
an underdog against a school which has been in IA ball for only 12 years makes them the play.
FORECAST: MISSISSIPPI ST (+) 27 Ucf 23 RATING: 2?
These traditional powers last met in PSU?s only Alamo Bowl appearance in ?99 when the Lions shutout
the Aggies 24-0. PSU leads the all-time series 2-1. Despite being located just 160 miles from San Antonio,
this is only A&M?s 3rd Alamo appearance (2-1 SU & 1-2 ATS) and the game is a sellout thanks to their
fans. Paterno is 22-10-1 SU & 20-9-1 ATS in bowls while the Aggies? interim HC Darnell is 0-1 SU & ATS.
The loss came to Wash 34-7 in the ?89 Freedom Bowl when he coached Florida after Galen Hall was
fired. Hall is currently PSU?s OC. Both teams are disappointed to be here with A&M in transition between
the end of the Franchione era while new HC Sherman finishes his NFL ssn. Paterno admitted after the
ssn that his team should?ve won 10 gms & that he made some coaching errors. A&M has played 8 bowl
caliber tms (4-4 SU & 3-5 ATS, outscored on avg 31-2. PSU also played 8 bowl eligible tms (4-4 SU &
2-6 ATS, outscoring them on avg 26-22). A&M was 1-4 SU & 2-3 ATS on the road while PSU was 2-3 SU
& 1-4 ATS. Lions were favored in all AG?s & their lone cover was at Temple where 2/3 of the fans were in
blue. A&M was 3-4 ATS as a dog pulling upsets vs Neb & Tex. The Aggies are 5-3 ATS on turf L/2Y while
Lions are 0-5 ATS. The veteran A&M has 13 Sr starters and 21 upperclassmen! PSU has just 3 Sr starters
with 16 upperclassmen. A&M last played on Nov
L/3 gms and 5 of their L/7 after a 5-0 start. This is rematch of a Sept 15th meeting in which the Boilers
won 45-22 after leading 31-0 at the half while compiling 402 yds. PU finished with 586 yds overall despite
5 TO?s including 4 fmbls. CM is 0-14 SU, 3-10-1 ATS vs the Big Ten S/?94 while Purdue is 34-7-1 SU
but 3-5 ATS vs the MAC (2-0 TY). Purdue has gone bowling in 10 of the 11 yrs of Tiller?s tenure (3-6 SU
& 4-5 ATS) with CM being the 1st non-BCS foe. Slow starts have been the norm as Purdue has fallen
behind 95-0 in the L/6 bowls. The Boilers have played 8 gms vs bowl eligible teams (3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS)
being slightly outscored 27.1-26.6 while outgaining those foes 397-388. CM was 1-3 SU and ATS being
outscored 51-25 and outgained 537-427. This is the Boilers? 1st trip to Ford Field where CM is 3-0 SU
and ATS the L/2Y including two MAC Championship games and a 31-14 win over MT in LY?s Motor City
Bowl. CM should have the crowd edge as they expect to sell 15,000 tickets while PU hopes to bring 5,000
fans. PU is 4-1-1 ATS an AF (2-1 TY). The Boilers have their most veteran team yet under Tiller with 9
senior starters and 17 upperclassmen. CM has 9 senior starters and 14 upperclassmen but also the
MAC Freshman of the Year in Antonio Brown. Purdue last played on Nov 17 while CM played Dec 1.
The Boilers started out ?07 on fire winning their first 5 gms (CM, IAA E Ill & 3 tms with losing records) by
25 ppg. QB Painter ?Breesed? through those overmatched foes with an 18-3 ratio. Once PU got to the meat
of their Big Ten schedule reality quickly set in as OSU and Michigan manhandled the Boilers by a combined
71-28 with 3 of PU?s TD?s coming in the L/1:00. PU rebounded to win their next 2 vs Iowa & NW before
stumbling in their L/3. The Boilers had an inconsistent ground game with Sheets having fmbl problems and
Taylor missing 4 gms with a broken arm. The receiving corps had 2 standouts in WR Bryant and TE Keller
(Mackey semis) but 6?4? Lymon suffered a sophomore slump before eventually being kicked off the team.
The OL is large (6?5? 310) and does a good job protecting Painter (23 sks allowed, 4.3%). Boilers are #39 in
our off rankings. PU?s D (#5 returned 9 starters but the undersized front 4 (6?4? 269) struggled vs the run
(149 rush ypg, 4.0 allowed) and failed to generate a strong pass rush (24 sks). The LB?s were solid finishing
as 4 of the team?s top 6 tacklers. Despite inj?s the secondary was greatly improved finishing #32 in our pass
eff D with CB Vinson actually leading the team in tackles, pbu and int. PU had their best ST unit of the Tiller
era finishing #5 with the one of the NCAA?s top KR units (#7) which scored 3 TD led by Bryant.
CM has our #23 offense. Their main weapon is QB LeFevour who is #5 in the NCAA in total offense
as he had over 3,000 yds passing and 1,000 yds rushing joining Vince Young as the only players to
do so. LeFevour attended PU camps in HS but was never offered a scholarship by the Boilers. The
Chippewas also have two RB?s who combined for over 1,000 yds rushing in Hoskins and LY?s leading
rusher Sneed. Their top two WR?s, Brown and Anderson, have combined for 53% of CM?s receptions
and 55% of their receiving yds. The OL avg 6?4? 294 with 3 seniors which has opened holes for 5.0
ypc while allowing just 16 sacks (3.1%). CM has our #112 def allowing 36 ppg with 5 gms over 40 pts
including two over 50 pts. The DL avg 6?3? 264 with 2 seniors allowing 4.1 ypc with 22 sacks led by DE
Zombo, who leads the team in sacks. The top three tacklers are all LB?s led by 2 seniors including Keith,
the MAC?s #2 tackler. The Chippewas? weakest link is the secondary with 4 underclassmen starters as
they have our #110 pass eff D allowing 285 ypg (65%) and a poor 31-16 ratio. CM comes in with our
#91 ranked ST?s unit. Brown was the bright spot of the ST leading the team in KR and PR with 1 TD.
They allowed two return TD?s and 10.4 ypr on punts but just 19.4 on KR.
This matchup gave us a 4H Key Selection winner in the first meeting as Purdue was a 21? point
favorite. The Boilermakers are now a single digit favorite and while CM has the emotional edge and is
thrilled to be here, the disparity in talent will become obvious in the 2H. Purdue will be able to run the
ball against a defense allowing 4.1 ypc and pass the ball against a secondary ranked #110 in our pass
eff defense. Three straight bowl losses and a 24-7 loss to Mayland LY (outgained 429-285) will ensure
that Purdue is ready. There?s also a big edge in coaching with Tiller matching up vs a bowl virgin.
FORECAST: PURDUE 48 Central Michigan 31 RATING: 4?
This will be the 1st meeting between these programs. Texas is making a bowl trip for the 10th straight
year (23-21-2 all-time). Longhorns are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in the Holiday Bowl & are 0-5 ATS S/?95 in non-NYD
bowls. Arizona St (12-10-1 all-time) is 0-2 SU, but 2-0 ATS in the Holiday Bowl (lost 27-4, +18? in last trip
here vs #6 K-St). Sun Devil HC Erickson is 5-5 in bowls (4-6 ATS) and this is the 4th different team he has
guided to the post season. Horns? HC Brown is 9-6 SU & 6-9 ATS (3-6 ATS w/UT) in bowls. ASU & UT are
both disappointed not to be playing on NYD. ASU did sell their allotment of tickets, but Texas might have the
fan edge due to the Longhorns? faithful fans. ASU is 4-2 SU & 3-3 ATS vs bowl caliber tms outscoring opp?s
on avg 30-28 & being outgained 381-378. UT is 4-2 SU & 3-2-1 ATS vs bowl caliber teams outscoring foes
on avg 36-32 & outgaining them 464-432. Texas has 8 senior starters with 15 upperclassman (68%) while
ASU has 10 senior starters with 18 upperclassman (82%). The Sun Devils are 6-16 ATS as AD?s, incl TY?s
loss in Eugene (w/Dixon). Horns are 2-7-1 ATS as an AF (including LY?s bowl). Texas has had 8 more days
to prepare as ASU finished up on Dec 1st. While UT (#6) & ASU (#26) both rank high offensively, the Sun
Devils have a slight def edge (#14-32), and have played a stronger sked (#9-25).
QB Carpenter flourished in Erickson?s system increasing the tms ppg avg from 26.8 to 32.2 TY.
The ground gm was a surprising plus for the 2nd consec yr despite #1RB Torain going down mid-ssn
w/inj as Herring & Nance did a solid job in his absence. WR Jones continues to be the deep threat in
the receiving corps while McGaha leads the tm in rec & rec yds but surprisingly has yet to reach the
EZ. ASU?s OL avg 6?5? 315 and is full of experience with 4 Sr?s & 1 Jr paving the way for 147 ypg (3.4)
but surprisingly allowed a Pac 10 high 51 sks (only SYR & ND allowed more nationally). Altogether
the offense has our #26 ranking. For the 2nd straight ssn, ASU?s def started on fire holding 4 of their
first 5 opponents to 14 pts or less. The DL avg 6?3? 267 & is led by Davis and Vasquez allowing 101
ypg (3.4) on the ground while recording 27 ttl sks. The LB corps is led by James who led the tm in
tkls (37 more than #2). The ASU secondary is ranked #6 in pass eff def allowing 232 ypg (52%) with
a 17-17 ratio. They are led by a dangerous CB in Tryon & playmaking SS Nolan. ASU finished with
our #14 overall defense. First yr K Weber had an AA ssn converting on all but 1 of his FG attempts
earning the Groza Award in the process. The Sun Devils finished with our #39 ST ranking.
Texas has had one of the most inconsistent seasons under Brown, but he is the only active IA HC
to guide his tms to 9+ wins in 11 consec ssns. After B2B opening Big XII losses, the Longhorns avg win
was by 19 ppg while they outgained foes by 126 ypg before running into an emotional A&M squad in
their ssn finale. Brown still had UT one gm from a Title shot & a possible BCS bowl. Soph QB McCoy
had a little slump as he tossed an int in every gm TY except vs Rice (#105 pass eff D) & ISU (#106).
The rushing attack was stellar led by Charles with six 100+ yd gms including a career best 290 (8.
vs Nebraska. The Longhorns came into TY with one of the most explosive WR corps in the country, but
suffered a huge loss when Sr Sweed had ssn ending wrist surg at mid-ssn. Sr Jones & former minor
league baseball player Cosby stepped up as the primary targets. The OL avg 6?5?? 305 with NO senior
starters but 1st Tm All-Big 12 Sr LT Hills (6?6?? 305) broke his left fibula on 11/10 & Sr C Griffin (6?4?? 285)
tore an ACL on 11/3 & going into the bowl they are very inexperienced with just 1 upperclassman in the
3 deep. The DL avg 6?3?? 284 with 2 senior starters & this is a deep unit allowing 3.0 ypc & UT is ranked
#10 in NCAA in rush D all?g just 99 ypg. UT has a lot of talent in the secondary, but ranks #56 (all?g 276
ypg, 62%, 20-14 ratio). Texas has our #6 ranked offense, #32 defense & #25 sp tms.
This bowl features a pair of HC?s with National Championships. Both teams have a propensity to fall
behind early and rally back. Texas had an uneven season and did not win & cover consec games this
year and finished their season getting upset by A&M for a 2nd straight year. ASU did finish by beating
UA but failed to cover any of their final 4 gms. As you can see by the checklist, we rate these teams even
but the Sun Devils get the call being a team thrilled to be here vs a team that is 0-5 ATS on non-NY Day
bowls and that expected to be a national contender or at the minimum a BCS bowl team.
FORECAST: ARIZONA STATE (+) 35 Texas 32 RATING: 2?
This will be the 6th meeting and Boston College holds a 3-1-1 SU & 1-1 ATS record. This is BC?s 9th
consecutive bowl game winning 7 in a row SU (6-1 ATS). BC played in the then-Carquest Bowl in ?94 &
defeated Virginia 31-13. Michigan St returns to the post season for the first time S/?03. They are 7-10 SU
(5-8 ATS) all-time in bowls and this is their first trip to this bowl. Dantonio is 1-0 SU & ATS in the bowls as
a HC with a 32-14 win over Marshall in the ?04 Ft Worth Bowl. This is Jagodzinski?s first year as a HC &
first bowl game. The Eagles have won 10 gms in B2B years for the 1st time in BC history. These 2 have
faced 2 common opp?s TY (BG & ND) and the Eagles outscored those opp?s 41-19 while the Spartans had
a 30-16 edge. BC has faced 7 bowl caliber teams (Virginia Tech twice) and outscored those opp?s 27-24
and outgained them 436-358. MSU had the tougher overall sked facing 9 bowl caliber teams outscoring
them 34-31 and outgaining them 427-388. MSU has 15,000 alums who live in Florida and should be
well represented as they finished the year winning their last 2 to earn this bid. BC fans are known as
poor travellers. The Eagles are 4-11 ATS as an AF (0-2 TY) while MSU was 3-0 ATS as an AD TY. The
Eagles were in the ACC Championship game on Dec 1 while MSU has not played since Nov 17th. BC
has 8 seniors and 14 upperclassmen starters while MSU has 10 seniors and 17 upperclassmen.
Even though BC finished #2 in the ACC and #14 overall they were still passed up by the Chick-fil-A
and Gator Bowls. This season BC had a lot of ?firsts? beginning with a first year coach, 8-0 record for
the first time since 1942, beat Miami for the first time since 1984 and won their division & played in the
ACC Championship game for the first time. They can send the seniors out with just 12 losses in their 4
years, the winningest class ever. BC is led by the ACC POY & Unitas Award winner QB Matt Ryan (#3
NCAA total pass yds), who broke Doug Flutie?s BC season record for TD passes. RB Callender is not
only the top rusher but leads the teams in rec?s. The OL avg?s 6?6? 292 with 2 senior starters. BC has only
allowed 19 sks TY (3.1%) but also only avg?d 105 ypg rush (3.6). BC is led by the nation?s #1 rushing D
which allowed only 68.2 ypg (2.2). The DL avg 6?3? 274 with just 1 senior starter and the defense posted
34 sacks. Herzlich & Dunbar (hampered by sprained ankle) are the top 2 LB?s with a combined 16.5 tfl.
BC is #24 in scoring D, however MSU scored 83 pts in the last 2 gms (Purdue & Penn St). The Eagles
have our #63 pass eff D (#33 NCAA) allowing 261 ypg (60%) with a 19-21 ratio. The secondary is led
by Thorpe finalist FS Silva. BC has our #50 sp tms. The loss of LS Jack Geiser (knee) became costly in
the ACC title game when his backup was slow on a couple of snaps and 2 kicks were blocked.
The 3rd time may finally be the charm as Mark Dantonio is the third MSU HC hired since Nick
Saban left. Dantonio brought the Spartans some much needed toughness and discipline and scrapped
the team?s spread to go with a power running game. Luckily Dantonio had the horses to do it as speedy
Ringer and bruising Caulcrick combined for 2,159 yds and 27 TD?s. QB Hoyer steadily built confidence
in his first year as a starter and finished #2 in the B10 in pass eff. WR Thomas went from a little used JC
transfer to the team?s go-to receiver. TE Davis played both ways and finally lived up to his vast potential.
The huge OL (6?6? 310 avg) started 5 upperclassmen and paved the way for 4.4 ypc (4.0 in ?06) although
they did allow 30 sks (8.4%). MSU is one of 9 NCAA teams to avg 200 ypg both rushing & passing and is
#17 in our off rankings. The Spartans have struggled for years to develop a pass rush but that changed
under ex-DC Dantonio as MSU finished #12 in the NCAA with 37 sks. The DL was anchored by ?The
Sack Master? DE Saint-Dic who had a league record 8 FF. True frosh LB Jones led the team in tackles
in an impressive debut. The secondary was a weak spot with preseason All Conf FS Wiley benched at
times and MSU playing true frosh and ex-WR?s at CB. MSU finished #79 in pass eff D and #50 in our
overall defensive rankings. MSU finished #83 in ST?s with KR Thomas (28.1) the lone standout.
The line may look surprising with a 10-3 BC team only favored by a FG vs a 7-5 Mich St squad.
BC did drop the ACC title game and throughout this entire season they felt they were heading to a BCS
bowl. This team lived on TO?s but only had 3 int in the L/6gm of the season and are now without top
sackman DL Albright. Michigan St won their L2 both as underdogs and all 5 of MSU?s losses were by
7 pts or less with 2 coming in OT. MSU?s emotions are also the polar opposite of BC?s as they thought
they were headed to Detroit to play a MAC team and now get a trip to Orlando and Disney World.
FORECAST: MICHIGAN ST (+) 31 Boston College 30 RATING: 2?
This is the 2nd Texas Bowl and the 25th meeting between SWC/CUSA foes who last met in ?04. UH has
lost L/7 (1-6 ATS) in the series. This is TCU?s 2nd trip in 3 years (former Houston Bowl) and their 9th bowl
trip in 10 years. This is the Cougars 18th bowl (7-9-1 all-time) but they have not won a bowl game S/?80. HC
Briles took the Cougars to 4 bowls in the L5Y but left for the Baylor job and DB cch Chris Thurmond will be
the interim coach as new HC Sumlin will remain with Oklahoma for the bowl. He is considering hiring other
asst?s to help coach in this one as both co-OC?s Montgomery and Clements joined Briles? staff. TCU clinched
a bowl bid battling back from a 17-0 deficit vs SDSt in their finale, turning out the 3rd largest offensive output
in school history. Houston was looking to repeat as CUSA Champs but got hammered by Tulsa 56-7. LY the
Cougs lost the Liberty Bowl 44-36 (+5) to S Carolina. TCU is 3-3 SU, 3-2-1 ATS under HC Gary Patterson in
the post season. The Cougs faced 4 bowl caliber teams TY going 0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS, outgaining them 440-416
but being outscored 43-23 with 3 of those gms being their lowest pt ttls of the yr. TCU took on 5 bowl caliber
opps and went 2-3 ATS outscoring foes 21.8-21.6 and outgaining them 344-304. UH went 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS
in bowls under Briles (all as dogs), but this is just a few miles from campus. The Cougs are 5-3 ATS as an AD
(1-2 TY) and 10-5 ATS on grass & have played at Reliant Stadium twice, a 10-7 loss to Rice in ?04 (-4) and a
38-24 loss to Oregon (+7?) in ?05. TCU was 0-3 TY as an AF and is just 10-18-1. They are however, 19-12-1
ATS on grass the L/4Y and 10-7-1 the L/2Y as a fav of a FG or more. The Frogs have 16 upperclassmen (9
Sr?s) in the starting lineup. Houston has 9 seniors among their 19 upperclassmen starters.
TCU was the media darling before the ssn, having the Preseason Off and Def POY?s. Unfortunately, DL
Blake faced medical probs and never played to his potential (missed parts or all of 5 gms). The Off POY Brown
was inj?d and DNP in 2 of the 1st 3. He returned vs SMU but his production fell as he was bothered by a knee
inj and coaches made the decision to put the ball in RB Turner?s hands. Turner also missed parts of 6 gms but
over the L/4 avg?d 109 ypg rush (5.2) inc a career high 226 yd vs SDSt. Brown broke his ankle vs UNLV and will
not be available. After the AF loss, TCU decided to go with the QB who was not turning the ball over. Both QB?s
Marcus Jackson and Andy Dalton saw PT, and Patterson was true to his word, as each was pulled after a TO.
The OL avg 6?5? 296 with just 1 Sr and has all?d 21 sks (5.1%) and paved the way for 169 ypg (3.. Overall they
finished with our #57 rated off. Hiding in the shadows of Blake for the L/3Y was DL Ortiz (3x 1st Tm MWC), and
he stepped up ranking #28 in the NCAA with 15.5 tfl while leading our #16 def. The D all?d just 109 ypg rush
(3.0) and tallied 36 sks. David Roach leads our #8 pass eff D that allows 211 ypg (53%) with a 12-16 ratio. TCU
has our #1 ranked ST?s unit led by PK Chris Manfredini (tied #13 in NCAA in FG?s) and P Derek Wash (#13 net).
PR Brian Bonner ranks #18 in the NCAA in PR and the Frogs give up 17.4 ypr on KR and 5.8 ypr on PR.
The Cougars have avg?d more than 438 ypg in 4 of the L/5Y. They are one of the most balanced teams
in the NCAA avg 240 ypg on the ground and 273 thru the air. After losing QB Kevin Kolb to the NFL, Briles
instituted a 2 QB system with rFr Keenum and soph Joseph. Keenum saw a majority of the action down
the stretch and ranks #16 in NCAA in pass eff. WR Avery ranks #4 in the NCAA in ypg rec and has legit
4.2 spd. RB Anthony ?Quick Six? Alridge is another legit 4.2 guy, finished #13 in NCAA in all-purp yds. The
Cougs OL avg 6?3? 291 led by RT Akeroyd and RG Bloesch and have 2 Sr?s on the front line. The OL opened
up holes for 240 ypg rush good for #10 in NCAA and the 5.1 ypc are the most S/?99 but they all?d 29 sks
(7.3%). The DL avg just 6?3? 276 led by CUSA sack leader Hunt and the Houston D usually wins the 4Q
allowing just 54 pts on the yr. The LB corps is led by the duo of Allen & Lubojasky who help plug holes as
Houston allowed 3.9 ypc rush which is its lowest S/?02. The secondary is led by SS Schwartz who missed
LY due to inj but has bounced back and leads the team in tkls. SS Kenneth Fontenette has a tm leading 4
int as the Cougs are ranked #47 in our pass eff D all?g 224 ypg (51%) with a 28-13 ratio. Overall the Cougs
have our #43 offense, #78 def and #84 ST?s with KR Avery #16 in the NCAA.
Houston was thinking CUSA championship but they were mauled vs Tulsa 56-7 and are now dealing with
the mass exodus of their coaching staff to Baylor. TCU recovered after losing both the pressn off & def POY?s
for a period of time and did win 3 of their L/4 with the loss being a cover at bowl bound BYU. This game is a
classic matchup of off vs def and in LY?s bowl TCU held N Ill to just 60 yards of TOTAL off. The Horned Frogs will
battle for next season while the Cougars are playing for interim coaches and haven?t won a bowl since 1980.
FORECAST: TCU 35 Houston 24 RATING: 2?
This is the 1st meeting and only the 4th time MD has played a P10 tm in school history with only one in
a bowl (Aloha Bowl vs Wash ?82). This will be MD?s 1st bowl in the state of California but they do have 5,000
alumni between LA & San Fran. This will be MD?s 5th bowl game in 7 yrs and their 22nd bowl appearance
(9-10-2). The Terps have won their L/3 bowl gms, outscoring those opp?s 95-17. Friedgen is 3-1 SU & ATS in
bowl gms which is the most wins by any MD coach. LY MD defeated Purdue 24-7 (+1) in the Champ Sports
Bowl in a game the Terps had a 429-285 yd edge. The Terps have faced 8 bowl caliber tms and were just
3-5 SU & ATS, being outscored 27-24. MD is 42-33 ATS on grass under Friedgen. OSU played the tougher
schedule TY (#11-44). After winning 7 of their final 8 LY to earn a Sun Bowl bid (39-38 win over Mizzou),
the Beavers continued their 2H surge again TY winning 6 of their L/7 (6-1 ATS) to earn their 7th bowl in 9
seasons. OSU has won their last 3 post season trips (2-1 ATS). The Beavers faced 7 bowl caliber teams
and were 3-4 SU & ATS being outscored by an avg of 30-21. OSU has 13 senior starters incl 8 on def giving
them the experience edge as the Terps have 8 senior starters with just 3 on the offensive side of the ball.
The Terps outscored their opp?s 25-22 but were outgained 356-351. The Terps? offense (#53 ranking),
which has been decimated by injuries (only 3 players have started all 12 gms), avg?d 424 ypg their final
3 games. QB Turner has been solid since stepping in for Steffy who was inj?d vs Rutgers. RB?s Lattimore
(#1 ACC scoring TDs) and Ball became just the 2nd duo in MD history to each post 10+ rush TDs in the
same season. WR Heyward-Bey, a frosh AA in ?06, leads the Terps in rec?s. OG?s Crummey and Thomas
were out with fractured fibulas, while LT Burley has missed quite a bit of time w/an ankle inj. Crummey
did return for the season finale. MD all?d 38 sks TY (12%, #107 in NCAA). The Terps defense has our #30
ranking. The DL avg 6?4? 293 with 2 Sr starters but the defense only has 23 sk, while all?g 137 rush ypg
(3.9). LB Henderson led the team in tkl in all but 2 gms despite being hampered by inj the final 7 wks. MD
is +7 in TO?s. They are ranked #70 in our pass eff D all?g 219 (60%) with a 13-12 ratio. MD had to replace
their starting P, K and top KR TY and their only returning specialist, PR Oquendo, was lost prior to the BC
game (knee inj) but they do have the #2 KR def in the NCAA. MD finished with our #48 ST unit.
After heavy competition at the QB position during fall camp, HC Riley decided to go with a QB
rotation for OSU?s first 2 gms of the ssn. QB Canfield became the full-time starter in wk 3 but struggled
with accuracy issues early throwing a nation leading 13 int through the AZ gm. He then suffered a shldr
inj 3 gms later vs USC allowing bkup Moevao to assume starting duties. Moevao was able to guide
OSU to 3 straight wins (3-0 ATS) to end the year and may have earned the starting job for this one
(Canfield possibly available). RB Bernard became the #2 all-time rusher in school history after a 3rd
consec 1,000+ yd ssn and should return for the bowl after missing the Civil War with a knee inj. The
WR position took a big blow when standout Stroughter (74 rec, 17.5 in ?06) took a Med RS forcing true
frosh WR?s Rodgers and Catchings to accept bigger roles behind starters Brown & Powers. The OL
avg 6?3? 309 and paved the way for 167 ypg rush (4.1) led by C DeVan & RG Schuening (49 consec
starts). OSU allowed 31 sks TY (7.5%) & finished with our #49 overall offense. The DL avg 6?2? 272
with 4 Sr starters. OSU uses a heavy rotation on the line keeping players fresh as they all?d 75 ypg
(2.1) on the ground finishing #2 in the nation. The LB spot also consists of 3 senior starters with team
captain Doggett leading the way on a tm that finished with the #6 overall def. The secondary finished
#10 in pass eff D allowing 238 ypg (53%) with an 18-20 ratio. Former Groza winner Serna had another
fine year and after LY?s starting P quit the tm just prior to the ssn, Serna took on double duty for the
first time since HS. OSU finished with our #86 ST unit.
Maryland suffered as much attrition as any team in the country and it showed as they dropped 3 of
their L/5 games. Five weeks of healing will have this team in the best shape they?ve been in all season.
OSU had to adjust to losing their top WR as well as finishing the year with their backup QB. Maryland
is the better offensive team while OSU has a shutdown defense. We side with Friedgen?s offense to be
able to dissect the Beavers? defense. The Fridge has won his L/3 bowls by an avg of 32-6 and should
get enough out of his defense that is facing a QB unit with a 10-20 ratio.
FORECAST: MARYLAND (+) 23 Oregon State 20 RATING: 3?
These teams met in 2006, a 24-13 WF win (+6?) and Conn upset Wake on the road in ?03, 51-17 as a
9 pt dog. Conn is 2-5 ATS the L/7 vs teams from the ACC with 2 straight covers. This is the Huskies? 2nd
bowl ever after they defeated Toledo in the ?04 Motor City 39-10 (+3?). The Huskies went from 4-8 LY to
9-3 tying for the most regular ssn wins in the program?s 109 year history, its 1st ever national ranking and
won a share of BE Title. A soft non-conf schedule, 2 blown calls and favorable home field weather were
contributing factors. Conn has played 6 bowl caliber teams with only 1 outside of their conf (UVA). They
were dogs in 5 and went 3-3 SU & 4-2 ATS despite being outscored 27-20 & outgained 441-318 benefitting
from their +13 TO margin. WF also faced 6 bowl caliber teams going 3-3 SU & ATS being outscored
28-26 & outgained 366-362. Conn was 2-2 as an AD TY but is 4-11 since 2004. Conn fans travelled well
their last bowl (10,000+) & sold out TY?s allotment of 12,500 tickets. WF should have the crowd edge with
17,500+ tix sold and the bowl is just over an hour away. The Huskies have 4 senior starters among 13
upperclassmen while WF has 16 upperclassmen starters incl 9 seniors. These 2 played 2 common opp?s
TY (Duke & UVA) and WF outscored them 29-27 but was outgained 347-326 while UC outscored them
31-16 and outgained them 371-251, however both teams lost to UVA 17-16. This will be WF?s 8th bowl
appearance but marks the first time WF has been to bowl games in consecutive years. The Deacons are
4-3 SU all-time in bowl games (3-3 ATS) incl their Orange Bowl loss LY. This is Grobe?s 7th year as HC
and his 3rd bowl appearance (1-1 SU & ATS). WF is just 4-7 ATS as an AF and 5-4 ATS on grass since
installing turf LY (1-3 TY). Conn plays on grass & was 2-9 as an AD from ?04-?06 but went 2-2 TY.
Conn is the most recent surprise out of the BE or this year?s Rutgers of 2006. The Huskies offense has
our #71 ranking, avg 358 ypg & 28 ppg. Edsall began the season returning 8 starters on offense but 6 were
sophs and a 1st year JUCO QB. Lorenzen transferred from Palomar CC where he was a JCAA. Last year?s
QB DJ Hernandez switched to WR. Lorenzen didn?t put up the flashiest numbers but manages the offense
very well. RB Brown started the first 6 gms but was hampered by injury & platooned the rest of the year with
Dixon. The Huskies got better WR play TY from Hernandez (2 QB?s on field), Kanuch & NFL prototype Jeffers.
The OL avg 6?3? 301 & has paved the way for 165 ypg rush (3.9) but all?d 28 sks (8.5%). UC?s defense has
our #51 ranking all?g 19 ppg, 346 ypg with 28 sacks. The DL avg 6?2? 267 all?g 159 ypg (4.4) rush. The heart
of the defense is at LB led by Sr Lansanah. The defense is tied for #7 in the NCAA in TO margin & tied for #3
in int with 22. They have our #21 pass eff defense avg 188 ypg (58%) with an 11-22 ratio. The Huskies have
our #58 ST?s ranking. Edsall experimented with Tyvon Branch in 2005 as a KR where he fumbled 3 times vs
WV but the test panned out this year as he finished #21 in NCAA & had 2 TD returns.
After starting the year 0-2, the Deacons won 8 of their L/10. Under Grobe, WF is 19-7 SU over the L/2Y, the
most successful 2 yr stretch in school history. However, after being the ACC Champs LY & making their appearance
in the Orange Bowl, this is a step down. WF has a somewhat conservative passing game, led by QB Skinner, as
they have a high completion rate (72%), but avg just 191 ypg pass. Skinner (missed 2 gms w/shldr inj), however,
threw more than twice as many int TY (13) as he did as a rFr LY (5). They do have a big-play threat at WR in
Moore (#1 rec/gm in ACC) and rFr TB Adams (ACC Rookie POY) really stepped up and finished 3rd in the ACC
rushing. The OL, led by AA C Justice, avg 6?4? 309, allowing 26 sks (7.3%) and 143 ypg (3.3). Overall, WF has
our #70 ranked off. The DL, with 3 Sr starters, avg 6?3? 278 and is allowing 109 ypg rush (3.1) but the D (#3 had
just 27 sks. WF has our #22 pass eff D allowing 242 ypg (54%) with a 20-18 ratio. CB Alphonso Smith (#1 NCAA
in int) and LB Curry have combined 6 IR TD and WF has scored 10 non-off TD?s (#1 NCAA). The Deacons have
the edge on sp tms with our #28 ranking. K Swank is just the 2nd player in WF history with more than 100 PAT.
Conn comes in with the better record but they are still an overrated team. A bad call vs Temple and a
missed fair catch pen vs L?ville would drop their record to 7-5 plus UC was helped by weather in 2 other gms.
WF?s HC Grobe deserves his accolades as the Deacons have 19 wins the L/2 ssns which matched their
regular season record in the previous 4 yrs combined. After rumors of him leaving for Ark, Grobe signed
an extension with WF. While the units are comparable it is a rarity that a tm gets shutout on our checklist
as every category is either even or gives Wake the edge. Conn is second to last among bowl teams having
been outgained by 123 ypg vs bowl caliber opponents. Wake has always been an outstanding underdog
but they?ve now gone 5-1 ATS as a TD or less favorite. FORECAST: WAKE FOREST 27 Connecticut 20 RATING: 2?
This is the 2nd meeting between these two schools with the previous meeting a 35-28 MSU (-4?)
win in ?97. CUSA Champ UCF is off a 44-25 win vs Tulsa avenging their 2005 championship loss. For
CUSA members this is the bowl invite you want because it means you finished #1 in the conference
& after missing out on a bowl game LY the Knights are excited. This is just the 12th season in IA ball
for the Knights and their 2nd ever bowl game as they lost the 2005 Hawaii Bowl to Nevada 49-48
(+2?) in OT on a missed xp. HC George O?Leary was the TY?s CUSA COY (named Bobby Dodd Nat?l
COY in ?00 at GT) and is 2-3 SU & 3-2 ATS in bowl games. SEC COY Croom is coaching his first
bowl and this is MSU?s first bowl trip since ?00. MSU sold out their allotment of 30,000 tickets while
UCF is having trouble selling their 10,000 ticket allotment (7,500 sold as of presstime). UCF is 4-3
SU and 5-2 ATS vs bowl teams TY while MSU is 3-5 SU & 4-4 ATS. UCF is 1-8 ATS as an AF &
MSU is on a 7-2-1 ATS run as an AD with 4 outright upsets the L/2Y. UCF has 6 senior starters &
14 upperclassmen & MSU has 7 seniors & 18 upperclassmen. UCF is just 3-10 ATS vs non-conf
foes under O? Leary. Both teams beat UAB TY with MSU having a greater margin of victory (30-13
to 45-31) but UCF outgained UAB 506-343 while MSU was actually outgained 288-284.
UCF has our #44 rated offense and QB Israel really matured the 2H of the season during their 7
game win streak avg 177 ypg (67%) with a 10-4 ratio showing great poise. RB Smith had a Heisman-like
season leading the NCAA in both rushing and TD?s. Smith exploded during a 7 game streak breaking
200 yds 3x?s including a career high 320 vs UAB all as a junior (likely to test the NFL waters). Smith
who broke Marcus Allen?s single ssn rush attempt record is now just 181 yds from breaking Barry
Sanders? single season rush record of 2,628 yds and has avg 122 yds in the 1H of games. The OL
with 2 senior starters avg 6?4? 304 opening holes for 243 ypg (5.1), both school records, and allowed
17 sacks (5.3%). With all the talk of Smith the D seems to have been forgotten but after all?g 116
points (58 ppg) to EC and USF they all?d just 149 points (21.3) in the L/7. The DL is led by 2 seniors
and avg 6?3? 288 and leads CUSA in rush ypg all?d at 131 (3.7) and the D tallied 38 sks. The LB corps
took a hit in the offseason when they lost WLB Richards to inj and in the CUSA Champ game lost #4
tklr Hogue to a broken hand so they will be thin. The secondary is the best in CUSA and ranks #12 in
our pass eff D (248 ypg, 56%, 26-23 ratio) with their 23 int tied for #1 in NCAA. Overall the D ranks
#56. UCF has a huge edge on sp tms (#9-103) with solid PK and return gms.
Croom said his team performed ahead of schedule this year reaching a bowl with a 7-5 record.
Returning starting QB Henig was inj?d in the 3rd gm and 2nd string QB Riddell suffered a torn ACL
in gm 5 which left true frosh Carroll in charge of MSU?s #92 offense. Carroll started out throwing 137
passes without an int, but finished with a 5-6 ratio in the L/3 gms and was replaced for 2 drives by
Henig in the Egg Bowl. RB Dixon was in Croom?s doghouse at various times during the ssn losing
his starting job to FB Ducr? at mid-season but regaining it the following gm after rushing for 152 yds
& 3 TD vs UAB. With the inconsistency at QB, top WR Burks? numbers fell almost by 50% from LY.
MSU?s #40 defense all?d 159 ypg rush (4.2) but gave up over 200 yds rush in 5 gms TY and MSU
finished #34 in our pass D rankings (182 ypg, 54%, 20-15 ratio). FS Pegues is a converted CB who
led the MSU comeback vs Ole Miss with a 75 yd PR TD late 4Q.
Though MSU is excited to be here and will have a huge crowd edge UCF has the better skill players,
a solid D, strong sp tms and would love to knock off just their 2nd SEC tm in school history (1-12 SU,
7-5 ATS). This is only the third time UCF has had more rush yards than pass yards led by All-American
RB Kevin Smith. Miss St will hear about his talents for the next several weeks and will be ready for the
challenge as he is just 181 yards from breaking the all-time rushing record. The Bulldogs have one of
the fastest defenses the Knights have faced and their outside speed can contain Smith. Although MSU
has not been to a bowl since 2000 their tough SEC schedule and crowd edge plus the indignity of being
an underdog against a school which has been in IA ball for only 12 years makes them the play.
FORECAST: MISSISSIPPI ST (+) 27 Ucf 23 RATING: 2?
These traditional powers last met in PSU?s only Alamo Bowl appearance in ?99 when the Lions shutout
the Aggies 24-0. PSU leads the all-time series 2-1. Despite being located just 160 miles from San Antonio,
this is only A&M?s 3rd Alamo appearance (2-1 SU & 1-2 ATS) and the game is a sellout thanks to their
fans. Paterno is 22-10-1 SU & 20-9-1 ATS in bowls while the Aggies? interim HC Darnell is 0-1 SU & ATS.
The loss came to Wash 34-7 in the ?89 Freedom Bowl when he coached Florida after Galen Hall was
fired. Hall is currently PSU?s OC. Both teams are disappointed to be here with A&M in transition between
the end of the Franchione era while new HC Sherman finishes his NFL ssn. Paterno admitted after the
ssn that his team should?ve won 10 gms & that he made some coaching errors. A&M has played 8 bowl
caliber tms (4-4 SU & 3-5 ATS, outscored on avg 31-2. PSU also played 8 bowl eligible tms (4-4 SU &
2-6 ATS, outscoring them on avg 26-22). A&M was 1-4 SU & 2-3 ATS on the road while PSU was 2-3 SU
& 1-4 ATS. Lions were favored in all AG?s & their lone cover was at Temple where 2/3 of the fans were in
blue. A&M was 3-4 ATS as a dog pulling upsets vs Neb & Tex. The Aggies are 5-3 ATS on turf L/2Y while
Lions are 0-5 ATS. The veteran A&M has 13 Sr starters and 21 upperclassmen! PSU has just 3 Sr starters
with 16 upperclassmen. A&M last played on Nov
NORTHCOAST POWERSWEEPS:
NEW ORLEANS BOWL
FLORIDA ATL (7-5) MEMPHIS (7-5)
1st ever meeting. This is Memphis? 5th all-time bowl & 4th in 5 yrs under HC West. West is 2-1 SU &
ATS after going 0-3 SU, 2-1 ATS as Clemson?s HC from ?93-?98. Mem?s last bowl was the ?05 Motor City
(38-31 win) where RB D?Angelo Williams set an NCAA rec with 34 career 100+ yard gms (bowl rec 238
yds on the day). For FAU this is their 1st ever bowl as they just started playing IA ball in ?04 becoming the
fastest start-up program to earn a bowl berth. HC Schnellenberger took over the program in ?01 when they
didn?t have a FB team. He is 4-0 SU & ATS in bowls, the last one was a win in the ?93 Liberty Bowl vs Mich
St, 18-7. He also won a Nat?l Championship with Miami in ?83. FAU played 6 bowl-caliber tms going 1-5 SU
& 2-4 ATS being outgained 416-409 & outscored 35-28 incl a loss to Fla. Mem played 3 going 1-2 SU &
ATS being outgained 516-406 & outscored 46-30. They faced 2 common opp TY (Ark St, Mid Tenn). Mem
(0-2 SU & 1-1 ATS) was outgained 440-322 & outscored 28-19 while FAU (2-0 SU & 1-1 ATS) outgained
them 393-237 & outscored them 31-23. Mem has 7 seniors among their 17 upperclassmen starters while
FAU has 5 seniors of their 14. FAU is 2-1 ATS on turf TY while Mem is 7-3 ATS on turf incl a 28-27 (+2?)
win here vs Tulane earlier TY. This is Mem?s 2nd trip to this bowl. In ?03 they broke the nation?s longest bowl
drought (beat N Texas 27-17) & are 3-0 SU & ATS in the Superdome. They are 8-2 ATS as an AD while
FAU is 4-1 ATS as an AF. Mem figures to have the crowd edge bringing 10,000 strong here in ?03.
FAU has our #59 rated off led by QB Smith (6-5 212) who was a 4x SBC POW TY incl the L/2W in
key wins which got them here. Smith matured in the 2H of the ssn avg 301 ypg (61%) with a 14-5 ratio
and going 4-2 to win the SBC Title. FAU has speedy WR?s and also utilizes their TE in the pass gm as 5
players have 23+ catches. The FAU run gm struggled outside the SBC avg just 99 ypg (2.7) although all
5 non-conf foes were BCS schools. RB Pierre led the tm but had zero 100 yd gms and FAU on the ssn
failed to have anyone break the 100 yd plateau. The OL is smallish avg 6?2? 262 with 1 Sr starter and
although inexperienced did improve down the stretch as they all?d 15 sks (3.2%) and opened holes for
127 ypg (3.5) on the year. The D, which had 15 sks, lost 2 good players in DL?s Pinnick & Savidge (knee
inj?s) but still played tough all?g just 142 ypg (4.1) the L/4 gms (ssn 180, 4.8). The LB corps may be the
best in the SBC as Joseph & Sincere are #1 & #2 tacklers in the conf. The secondary has had an int in 20
straight gms and rFr Polo has 7 on the yr. The Panthers rank #80 in our pass eff D (238 ypg, 65%, 24-19
ratio) and overall have our #83 ranked D all?g 34 ppg and 417 ypg.
Memphis started the year 2-4 having lost a teammate who was killed, playing 3 gms in 11 days and
losing QB Hankins to inj for 2 games. When Hankins returned he was on fire avg 351 ypg (60%) with a 17-7
ratio as the Tigers went 5-1 down the stretch. Memphis has 6 WR that are 6? or taller & 5 had 30+ catches
led by Calhoun (6?4?) who had four 100+ yd gms the L/6 & WR Singleton (6?8?) who had two 100+ yd games
in the L/4. Memphis struggled to run the ball early due to inj & had zero 100 yd rushers the 1st 6 gms. Sr
Doss, who got healthy the 2H of ssn, had two 165+ yd gms down the stretch. The Tiger O-Line, avg 6?4?
301 with 2 Sr starters led by RG Smith, is #9 in the NCAA all?g just 13 sacks (2.6%) and avg 140 ypg (3.9).
The Tigers have our #67 ranked offense. LY Mem fired DC Joe Lee Dunn after 3 gms & West changed the
3-3-5 to a 4-3. They struggled allowing 178 ypg rush (4.5) and 409 ypg (DL not a high recruiting priority).
This ssn they all?d a staggering 210 ypg (5.2) with 26 TD ranking #110 in NCAA. The DL avg 6?3? 258 with
no seniors listed in the 4 deep (great for ?08). The team only had 14 sks which ranked #111 in the NCAA
and allowed their 3 bowl foes 317 ypg rush (6.8). The LB corps was a strength despite losing OLB Greg
Jackson (inj) after 2 gms, Quinton McCrary (left tm in Nov) & Winston Bowens (inj) who filled in for Jackson.
Kasser took over and led the team in tkls. The secondary ranks #96 in our pass eff D all?g 230 ypg (62%)
with a 20-12 ratio. The Tigers allow a staggering 440 ypg and 31 ppg ranking #107 in our D rankings.
Memphis finished the ssn winning 5 of 6 gms incl 3 upsets as underdogs. HC West thought this bowl
was a perfect fit giving his young tm a chance at an 8 win ssn. Fla Atl started the ssn 3-1 incl knocking off
Minnesota giving us our Sept 5H Winner. They finished knocking off Troy as a 16 point underdog to earn this
spot as conference champions. Both tms are undervalued and it is unfortunate that they were paired up as we
looked to play on both of them. We do look for an entertaining high scoring gm with both offenses looking for
the ?home run? ball. The match-up with the tall receiving corps on both sides adds to this selection. Over the
L/6 games, both Mem & FAU?s final scores are over 70 ttl ppg and look for another high scoring affair here. FORECAST: OVER 67 RATING: 2★
NEW ORLEANS BOWL
FLORIDA ATL (7-5) MEMPHIS (7-5)
1st ever meeting. This is Memphis? 5th all-time bowl & 4th in 5 yrs under HC West. West is 2-1 SU &
ATS after going 0-3 SU, 2-1 ATS as Clemson?s HC from ?93-?98. Mem?s last bowl was the ?05 Motor City
(38-31 win) where RB D?Angelo Williams set an NCAA rec with 34 career 100+ yard gms (bowl rec 238
yds on the day). For FAU this is their 1st ever bowl as they just started playing IA ball in ?04 becoming the
fastest start-up program to earn a bowl berth. HC Schnellenberger took over the program in ?01 when they
didn?t have a FB team. He is 4-0 SU & ATS in bowls, the last one was a win in the ?93 Liberty Bowl vs Mich
St, 18-7. He also won a Nat?l Championship with Miami in ?83. FAU played 6 bowl-caliber tms going 1-5 SU
& 2-4 ATS being outgained 416-409 & outscored 35-28 incl a loss to Fla. Mem played 3 going 1-2 SU &
ATS being outgained 516-406 & outscored 46-30. They faced 2 common opp TY (Ark St, Mid Tenn). Mem
(0-2 SU & 1-1 ATS) was outgained 440-322 & outscored 28-19 while FAU (2-0 SU & 1-1 ATS) outgained
them 393-237 & outscored them 31-23. Mem has 7 seniors among their 17 upperclassmen starters while
FAU has 5 seniors of their 14. FAU is 2-1 ATS on turf TY while Mem is 7-3 ATS on turf incl a 28-27 (+2?)
win here vs Tulane earlier TY. This is Mem?s 2nd trip to this bowl. In ?03 they broke the nation?s longest bowl
drought (beat N Texas 27-17) & are 3-0 SU & ATS in the Superdome. They are 8-2 ATS as an AD while
FAU is 4-1 ATS as an AF. Mem figures to have the crowd edge bringing 10,000 strong here in ?03.
FAU has our #59 rated off led by QB Smith (6-5 212) who was a 4x SBC POW TY incl the L/2W in
key wins which got them here. Smith matured in the 2H of the ssn avg 301 ypg (61%) with a 14-5 ratio
and going 4-2 to win the SBC Title. FAU has speedy WR?s and also utilizes their TE in the pass gm as 5
players have 23+ catches. The FAU run gm struggled outside the SBC avg just 99 ypg (2.7) although all
5 non-conf foes were BCS schools. RB Pierre led the tm but had zero 100 yd gms and FAU on the ssn
failed to have anyone break the 100 yd plateau. The OL is smallish avg 6?2? 262 with 1 Sr starter and
although inexperienced did improve down the stretch as they all?d 15 sks (3.2%) and opened holes for
127 ypg (3.5) on the year. The D, which had 15 sks, lost 2 good players in DL?s Pinnick & Savidge (knee
inj?s) but still played tough all?g just 142 ypg (4.1) the L/4 gms (ssn 180, 4.8). The LB corps may be the
best in the SBC as Joseph & Sincere are #1 & #2 tacklers in the conf. The secondary has had an int in 20
straight gms and rFr Polo has 7 on the yr. The Panthers rank #80 in our pass eff D (238 ypg, 65%, 24-19
ratio) and overall have our #83 ranked D all?g 34 ppg and 417 ypg.
Memphis started the year 2-4 having lost a teammate who was killed, playing 3 gms in 11 days and
losing QB Hankins to inj for 2 games. When Hankins returned he was on fire avg 351 ypg (60%) with a 17-7
ratio as the Tigers went 5-1 down the stretch. Memphis has 6 WR that are 6? or taller & 5 had 30+ catches
led by Calhoun (6?4?) who had four 100+ yd gms the L/6 & WR Singleton (6?8?) who had two 100+ yd games
in the L/4. Memphis struggled to run the ball early due to inj & had zero 100 yd rushers the 1st 6 gms. Sr
Doss, who got healthy the 2H of ssn, had two 165+ yd gms down the stretch. The Tiger O-Line, avg 6?4?
301 with 2 Sr starters led by RG Smith, is #9 in the NCAA all?g just 13 sacks (2.6%) and avg 140 ypg (3.9).
The Tigers have our #67 ranked offense. LY Mem fired DC Joe Lee Dunn after 3 gms & West changed the
3-3-5 to a 4-3. They struggled allowing 178 ypg rush (4.5) and 409 ypg (DL not a high recruiting priority).
This ssn they all?d a staggering 210 ypg (5.2) with 26 TD ranking #110 in NCAA. The DL avg 6?3? 258 with
no seniors listed in the 4 deep (great for ?08). The team only had 14 sks which ranked #111 in the NCAA
and allowed their 3 bowl foes 317 ypg rush (6.8). The LB corps was a strength despite losing OLB Greg
Jackson (inj) after 2 gms, Quinton McCrary (left tm in Nov) & Winston Bowens (inj) who filled in for Jackson.
Kasser took over and led the team in tkls. The secondary ranks #96 in our pass eff D all?g 230 ypg (62%)
with a 20-12 ratio. The Tigers allow a staggering 440 ypg and 31 ppg ranking #107 in our D rankings.
Memphis finished the ssn winning 5 of 6 gms incl 3 upsets as underdogs. HC West thought this bowl
was a perfect fit giving his young tm a chance at an 8 win ssn. Fla Atl started the ssn 3-1 incl knocking off
Minnesota giving us our Sept 5H Winner. They finished knocking off Troy as a 16 point underdog to earn this
spot as conference champions. Both tms are undervalued and it is unfortunate that they were paired up as we
looked to play on both of them. We do look for an entertaining high scoring gm with both offenses looking for
the ?home run? ball. The match-up with the tall receiving corps on both sides adds to this selection. Over the
L/6 games, both Mem & FAU?s final scores are over 70 ttl ppg and look for another high scoring affair here. FORECAST: OVER 67 RATING: 2★
NORTHCOAST POWERSWEEPS:
S MISSISSIPPI (7-5) CINCINNATI (9-3)
PAPAJOHNS.COM BOWL
This is the 15th (7-7) meeting all-time between these 2 as Cincy used to be in CUSA before leaving
for the BE in ?05. In the last meeting in ?04 Cincy won 52-24 as they outgained SM 430-331 and were
+4 in TO?s. HC Jeff Bower has had 14 straight winning seasons and has taken S Miss to bowls in 10 of
11 years. Bower was let go after the ssn finale (new HC Fedora is OkSt?s OC) but will coach here. This
is the 6th straight bowl for SM going 3-2 SU & 2-2-1 ATS incl LY?s 28-7 win at the GMAC (won L/3). This
is Cincy?s 2nd straight, 6th in 8 years & the 9th bowl in school history. Kelly was hired LY with Dantonio
departing & coached Cincy in the International Bowl, a 27-24 win over W Michigan. Several milestones
were set TY incl their 9th win (1st time S/?53), finishing the ssn ranked with 3 sellouts at Nippert Stadium
(most in school history). Kelly was named the BE Coach of the Year and while this is only his 2nd bowl,
he did lead Div II Grand Valley State to two National Titles. The Cats played 6 bowl caliber teams this
year (4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS) including a loss to then-#5 WV 28-23. They have outscored those opponents
29-20 but were outgained 385-383. SM played 2 teams that were in the Top 25 at some point TY (Tenn
& Boise) losing both SU & ATS by a combined 42 points & played 5 bowl teams going 1-4 SU & ATS.
They were outgained 414-333 and outscored 32-21. SM is just 2-4 ATS on grass the L/2Y and 7-16-1
ATS as an AD (0-2 TY) while Cincy is 2-1 ATS on grass TY & 3-1 as an AF.
SM is not known for its offense (#91) but TY avg?d 394 ypg and 28 ppg which is the 2nd highest
S/?98. SM is led by senior QB Young who opened the season avg 199 ypg (54%) with a 4-2 ratio until
an inj vs Boise State and never really got into any rhythm since his return. RB Fletcher ranks #14 in
NCAA in rushing and has eight 100+ yd games. He became just the 3rd SM RB to have B2B 1,000 yd
seasons & also captured the Conerly Award for the top player in Mississippi. Watch for RB Easterling
(PS#17) as he played in only 1 game (burned RS) and is dynamic. The OL has paved the way for 200
rush ypg & 4.6 ypc both of which are highs under Bower allowing 18 sacks (5.2%). SM has always been
defined by their D (our #58) as the highest total they?ve allowed S/?94 is 25 ppg in 2004. The 24 ppg
allowed TY was a CUSA best as the conf had 8 teams allow over 30 ppg. SM, home of the non-BCS
LB U corps, had 3 straight CUSA D POY from 2003-?05 (Coley, Boley, Davis) and MLB McRath fits the
mold as he ranks #13 in NCAA avg 10.9 tpg. The SM secondary ranks #46 in our pass eff D (224 ypg,
57% 20-14 ratio) with CB Sumrall having 5 int while taking one to the house. SM?s ranks #32 in our
ST?s with P Barefoot ranking #24 in the NCAA in net P.
Cincy?s HC Kelly installed a new Coast to Coast offense to compliment an already stout defense,
spark fan interest and compete with the BE?s offensive powers. The result was a school record 441 pts
scored (#14 in NCAA). The Cats have our #25 rated offense with 37 ppg & 436 ypg. Bionic Ben Mauk
transferred from Wake after he suffered a horrific arm inj in LY?s season opener. He beat out Grutza, who
started 11 gms in ?06, but Grutza started 2 games early in the year including a BE POW effort vs Mia,
Oh. Mauk broke a school record throwing for 27 TD?s. Kelly?s fast paced offense features WR Barnett
who set school record with 13 TD rec?s. The OL thinned down (avg loss 25 lbs) to accommodate the
new offense and they avg 6?4? 294, paving the way for 154 ypg (4.1), all?g 20 sks (4.9%). The Cats have
an undersized athletic defense ranking #35 all?g 19 ppg, 371 ypg and #2 in NCAA with 39 TO?s gained.
The D-Line avg 6?2? 250, all?g 106 rush ypg (3.0) with 30 of UC?s 38 sks. They are led by Sr?s DE Hoke
(12 sks) & DT Byrd. The secondary is tied for #1 in the nation with 23 int led by AA CB Mickens & FS
Nakamura. UC has our #36 pass efficiency ranking allowing 265 ypg (60%) with a 13-23 ratio. Cincy
has our #31 ST?s led by the NCAA?s #1 punter in avg, Huber.
Southern Miss made a bizarre decision in letting HC Bower go. All he?s done is produce 14 straight
winning seasons and bowl appearances in 10 of 11 years. With that said it will be an emotional farewell
as this classy HC volunteered to stay on and coach this bowl after his release. Cincinnati meanwhile
lobbied for both the Sun Bowl & Car Care Bowl but because of limited ticket sales in past bowls they
ended up here. SM has 2 key additions on off (Easterling & Johnson back from inj) and a now-healthy
QB. The Eagles also have 16 Alabama kids on their roster which will turn this into a potential upset.
FORECAST: SOUTHERN MISS (+) 24 Cincinnati 27 RATING: 3★
S MISSISSIPPI (7-5) CINCINNATI (9-3)
PAPAJOHNS.COM BOWL
This is the 15th (7-7) meeting all-time between these 2 as Cincy used to be in CUSA before leaving
for the BE in ?05. In the last meeting in ?04 Cincy won 52-24 as they outgained SM 430-331 and were
+4 in TO?s. HC Jeff Bower has had 14 straight winning seasons and has taken S Miss to bowls in 10 of
11 years. Bower was let go after the ssn finale (new HC Fedora is OkSt?s OC) but will coach here. This
is the 6th straight bowl for SM going 3-2 SU & 2-2-1 ATS incl LY?s 28-7 win at the GMAC (won L/3). This
is Cincy?s 2nd straight, 6th in 8 years & the 9th bowl in school history. Kelly was hired LY with Dantonio
departing & coached Cincy in the International Bowl, a 27-24 win over W Michigan. Several milestones
were set TY incl their 9th win (1st time S/?53), finishing the ssn ranked with 3 sellouts at Nippert Stadium
(most in school history). Kelly was named the BE Coach of the Year and while this is only his 2nd bowl,
he did lead Div II Grand Valley State to two National Titles. The Cats played 6 bowl caliber teams this
year (4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS) including a loss to then-#5 WV 28-23. They have outscored those opponents
29-20 but were outgained 385-383. SM played 2 teams that were in the Top 25 at some point TY (Tenn
& Boise) losing both SU & ATS by a combined 42 points & played 5 bowl teams going 1-4 SU & ATS.
They were outgained 414-333 and outscored 32-21. SM is just 2-4 ATS on grass the L/2Y and 7-16-1
ATS as an AD (0-2 TY) while Cincy is 2-1 ATS on grass TY & 3-1 as an AF.
SM is not known for its offense (#91) but TY avg?d 394 ypg and 28 ppg which is the 2nd highest
S/?98. SM is led by senior QB Young who opened the season avg 199 ypg (54%) with a 4-2 ratio until
an inj vs Boise State and never really got into any rhythm since his return. RB Fletcher ranks #14 in
NCAA in rushing and has eight 100+ yd games. He became just the 3rd SM RB to have B2B 1,000 yd
seasons & also captured the Conerly Award for the top player in Mississippi. Watch for RB Easterling
(PS#17) as he played in only 1 game (burned RS) and is dynamic. The OL has paved the way for 200
rush ypg & 4.6 ypc both of which are highs under Bower allowing 18 sacks (5.2%). SM has always been
defined by their D (our #58) as the highest total they?ve allowed S/?94 is 25 ppg in 2004. The 24 ppg
allowed TY was a CUSA best as the conf had 8 teams allow over 30 ppg. SM, home of the non-BCS
LB U corps, had 3 straight CUSA D POY from 2003-?05 (Coley, Boley, Davis) and MLB McRath fits the
mold as he ranks #13 in NCAA avg 10.9 tpg. The SM secondary ranks #46 in our pass eff D (224 ypg,
57% 20-14 ratio) with CB Sumrall having 5 int while taking one to the house. SM?s ranks #32 in our
ST?s with P Barefoot ranking #24 in the NCAA in net P.
Cincy?s HC Kelly installed a new Coast to Coast offense to compliment an already stout defense,
spark fan interest and compete with the BE?s offensive powers. The result was a school record 441 pts
scored (#14 in NCAA). The Cats have our #25 rated offense with 37 ppg & 436 ypg. Bionic Ben Mauk
transferred from Wake after he suffered a horrific arm inj in LY?s season opener. He beat out Grutza, who
started 11 gms in ?06, but Grutza started 2 games early in the year including a BE POW effort vs Mia,
Oh. Mauk broke a school record throwing for 27 TD?s. Kelly?s fast paced offense features WR Barnett
who set school record with 13 TD rec?s. The OL thinned down (avg loss 25 lbs) to accommodate the
new offense and they avg 6?4? 294, paving the way for 154 ypg (4.1), all?g 20 sks (4.9%). The Cats have
an undersized athletic defense ranking #35 all?g 19 ppg, 371 ypg and #2 in NCAA with 39 TO?s gained.
The D-Line avg 6?2? 250, all?g 106 rush ypg (3.0) with 30 of UC?s 38 sks. They are led by Sr?s DE Hoke
(12 sks) & DT Byrd. The secondary is tied for #1 in the nation with 23 int led by AA CB Mickens & FS
Nakamura. UC has our #36 pass efficiency ranking allowing 265 ypg (60%) with a 13-23 ratio. Cincy
has our #31 ST?s led by the NCAA?s #1 punter in avg, Huber.
Southern Miss made a bizarre decision in letting HC Bower go. All he?s done is produce 14 straight
winning seasons and bowl appearances in 10 of 11 years. With that said it will be an emotional farewell
as this classy HC volunteered to stay on and coach this bowl after his release. Cincinnati meanwhile
lobbied for both the Sun Bowl & Car Care Bowl but because of limited ticket sales in past bowls they
ended up here. SM has 2 key additions on off (Easterling & Johnson back from inj) and a now-healthy
QB. The Eagles also have 16 Alabama kids on their roster which will turn this into a potential upset.
FORECAST: SOUTHERN MISS (+) 24 Cincinnati 27 RATING: 3★
NORTHCOAST POWERSWEEPS:
NEVADA (6-6) NEW MEXICO (8-4)
NEW MEXICOBOWL
Nevada was at a crossroads after 6 gms (2-4) but the players came together & made a pact to win
out & go to a bowl. While they didn?t win out, they did win 4 of their L/6 (losses by 5 pts comb) to get
to an unprecedented 3rd consec bowl. Since HC Ault?s return, he has guided UN to a record of 23-14
over the L/3Y. UN is 3-4 SU (1-3 ATS) in bowl gms & 1-3 SU (1-2 ATS) under Ault. The Pack?s L/5 bowl
gms have been decided by combined 9 pts with the L/2 by just 1 pt each. UN went 0-4 SU (3-1 ATS) vs
bowl caliber tms TY but 3 of 4 gms ended in heartbreaking fashion. New Mexico has not won in the post
season under HC Rocky Long (0-4 SU & ATS) but this group has a chance to win 9 gms & match ?97?s
tm (best L/25Y). The Lobos are disappointed as they were hoping their 8-4 record would vault them into
a higher MWC bowl. NM took on 4 bowl caliber tms & was 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS being outscored 31-17 &
outgained 354-267 (off avg?d just 95 ypg rush). The Lobos obviously have the home edge as this gm
is being played in their home stadium, but they are hoping to draw more than the 34,111 that showed
up LY (SJSt brought approx 2,500-3,000). Long has devoted all of his bowl practice to preparing for UN
(as opposed to working in younger guys) saying, ?I haven?t seen them, except on TV. They look pretty
darn good on TV.? Both tms took on NMSt & UNLV with NM 2-0 ATS outscoring them 36-20 & outgaining
them 439-408 while UN outscored them 34-29 and outgained them 491-482. UN has 9 seniors among
18 upperclassmen starters and are 4-2 ATS as an AD L/2Y. NM is 3-9 ATS as a HF the L/4Y but this is
the final gm for 19 Sr?s (12 starters) who are determined to get NM?s 1st bowl win in 46 yrs.
UN has our #39 offense which is directed by QB Kaepernick, the ?07 WAC Frosh POY. When starting QB
Graziano was lost for the season (foot injury) in the 5th game, Kaepernick stepped right in & never missed a
beat. In fact, he became an ideal fit for UN?s ?Pistol Offense? with his dual-threat ability to both run & throw.
Since taking over the starting role on Oct 6th (8 gms), Kaepernick has passed for 2,027 yds (253 ypg) with
a 19-2 ratio while rushing for 542 yds (68 ypg). During that span, the Wolf Pack made a concerted effort to
run the ball more & RB Lippincott responded as he led the WAC in rushing while also serving as a viable
receiving option. Over the L/7 gms, Lippincott rushed for 1,016 yds (145 ypg). The OL avg 6?4? 293 & all?d
23 sks (6.5%) while paving the way for 5.0 ypc. UN?s top three WR?s each have big-play ability as each avg
over 18 ypc. TE Bishop only posted 14 rec, but half of them (7) went for a TD?s making him a legitimate RZ
scoring threat. UN?s D is #77 in our rankings & is led by LB Butler who is the Pack?s leading tackler the L/2
yrs. Butler had a rocky start to ?07 after missing the opener (suspended) and another with an injury, but
he stormed his way back into the mix & recorded half of the tm?s 6 int on the ssn. The DL avg 6?3? 272 &
suffered a blow by losing DE Clark for the ssn (pneumonia). UN?s ST?s are rated #97 in our rankings.
Calling the season a slow one for NM would be quite the understatement as fans were looking
forward to a high-flying season behind the arm of QB Porterie. NM was stunned when they lost 10-6
at UTEP despite outgaining them 383-195. Porterie turned it up & threw for a ssn high 342 yds in their
44-34 win over NMSt. His fave targets as the ssn progressed were WR?s Smith (#11 NCAA rec pg, #25
rec ypg) & Brown (#3 MWC rec). The OL avg 6?4? 312 with 4 Sr?s including C Natali, who after suffering
a shoulder inj in ?06, was held out of all contact drills in practice yet still managed to be one of the school
record 8 players named 1st Tm All-Conf. The unit all?d 23 sks (5.8%) while paving the way for 131 ypg
rush (3.4). Overall the offense finished with our #87 ranking. The NM def has been a feared unit in the
MWC as they run a number of stunts & have a way of confusing opponents & getting to the QB quickly
& continuously. This year they backed off somewhat as during a 4 gm stretch the group recorded zero
sks. They finished with 20 & all?d just 127 ypg rush (3.3) to finish #32 in our rankings. The ST?s (#20) unit
boasts the nation?s leading FG K Sullivan (#1 in NCAA FG?s) who re-wrote the MWC record books TY.
New Mexico is making their second straight New Mexico Bowl appearance. Their HC Long is now
0-4 in bowls and does have pressure on him after LY?s loss. Nevada lost their starting QB earlier TY but
the offense was sparked by dual-threat Kaepernick. Speed can contain Nev?s QB and NM?s D is loaded
with quickness. They can also shutdown the Wolf Pack run game as they allowed just 3.3 ypc. NM had
377-280 yd and 20-8 FD edges in LY?s bowl loss to SJSt with 4 TO?s causing their demise. This year
they?ll be a little more conservative to control turnovers.
FORECAST: NEW MEXICO 30 Nevada 23 RATING: 2★
NEVADA (6-6) NEW MEXICO (8-4)
NEW MEXICOBOWL
Nevada was at a crossroads after 6 gms (2-4) but the players came together & made a pact to win
out & go to a bowl. While they didn?t win out, they did win 4 of their L/6 (losses by 5 pts comb) to get
to an unprecedented 3rd consec bowl. Since HC Ault?s return, he has guided UN to a record of 23-14
over the L/3Y. UN is 3-4 SU (1-3 ATS) in bowl gms & 1-3 SU (1-2 ATS) under Ault. The Pack?s L/5 bowl
gms have been decided by combined 9 pts with the L/2 by just 1 pt each. UN went 0-4 SU (3-1 ATS) vs
bowl caliber tms TY but 3 of 4 gms ended in heartbreaking fashion. New Mexico has not won in the post
season under HC Rocky Long (0-4 SU & ATS) but this group has a chance to win 9 gms & match ?97?s
tm (best L/25Y). The Lobos are disappointed as they were hoping their 8-4 record would vault them into
a higher MWC bowl. NM took on 4 bowl caliber tms & was 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS being outscored 31-17 &
outgained 354-267 (off avg?d just 95 ypg rush). The Lobos obviously have the home edge as this gm
is being played in their home stadium, but they are hoping to draw more than the 34,111 that showed
up LY (SJSt brought approx 2,500-3,000). Long has devoted all of his bowl practice to preparing for UN
(as opposed to working in younger guys) saying, ?I haven?t seen them, except on TV. They look pretty
darn good on TV.? Both tms took on NMSt & UNLV with NM 2-0 ATS outscoring them 36-20 & outgaining
them 439-408 while UN outscored them 34-29 and outgained them 491-482. UN has 9 seniors among
18 upperclassmen starters and are 4-2 ATS as an AD L/2Y. NM is 3-9 ATS as a HF the L/4Y but this is
the final gm for 19 Sr?s (12 starters) who are determined to get NM?s 1st bowl win in 46 yrs.
UN has our #39 offense which is directed by QB Kaepernick, the ?07 WAC Frosh POY. When starting QB
Graziano was lost for the season (foot injury) in the 5th game, Kaepernick stepped right in & never missed a
beat. In fact, he became an ideal fit for UN?s ?Pistol Offense? with his dual-threat ability to both run & throw.
Since taking over the starting role on Oct 6th (8 gms), Kaepernick has passed for 2,027 yds (253 ypg) with
a 19-2 ratio while rushing for 542 yds (68 ypg). During that span, the Wolf Pack made a concerted effort to
run the ball more & RB Lippincott responded as he led the WAC in rushing while also serving as a viable
receiving option. Over the L/7 gms, Lippincott rushed for 1,016 yds (145 ypg). The OL avg 6?4? 293 & all?d
23 sks (6.5%) while paving the way for 5.0 ypc. UN?s top three WR?s each have big-play ability as each avg
over 18 ypc. TE Bishop only posted 14 rec, but half of them (7) went for a TD?s making him a legitimate RZ
scoring threat. UN?s D is #77 in our rankings & is led by LB Butler who is the Pack?s leading tackler the L/2
yrs. Butler had a rocky start to ?07 after missing the opener (suspended) and another with an injury, but
he stormed his way back into the mix & recorded half of the tm?s 6 int on the ssn. The DL avg 6?3? 272 &
suffered a blow by losing DE Clark for the ssn (pneumonia). UN?s ST?s are rated #97 in our rankings.
Calling the season a slow one for NM would be quite the understatement as fans were looking
forward to a high-flying season behind the arm of QB Porterie. NM was stunned when they lost 10-6
at UTEP despite outgaining them 383-195. Porterie turned it up & threw for a ssn high 342 yds in their
44-34 win over NMSt. His fave targets as the ssn progressed were WR?s Smith (#11 NCAA rec pg, #25
rec ypg) & Brown (#3 MWC rec). The OL avg 6?4? 312 with 4 Sr?s including C Natali, who after suffering
a shoulder inj in ?06, was held out of all contact drills in practice yet still managed to be one of the school
record 8 players named 1st Tm All-Conf. The unit all?d 23 sks (5.8%) while paving the way for 131 ypg
rush (3.4). Overall the offense finished with our #87 ranking. The NM def has been a feared unit in the
MWC as they run a number of stunts & have a way of confusing opponents & getting to the QB quickly
& continuously. This year they backed off somewhat as during a 4 gm stretch the group recorded zero
sks. They finished with 20 & all?d just 127 ypg rush (3.3) to finish #32 in our rankings. The ST?s (#20) unit
boasts the nation?s leading FG K Sullivan (#1 in NCAA FG?s) who re-wrote the MWC record books TY.
New Mexico is making their second straight New Mexico Bowl appearance. Their HC Long is now
0-4 in bowls and does have pressure on him after LY?s loss. Nevada lost their starting QB earlier TY but
the offense was sparked by dual-threat Kaepernick. Speed can contain Nev?s QB and NM?s D is loaded
with quickness. They can also shutdown the Wolf Pack run game as they allowed just 3.3 ypc. NM had
377-280 yd and 20-8 FD edges in LY?s bowl loss to SJSt with 4 TO?s causing their demise. This year
they?ll be a little more conservative to control turnovers.
FORECAST: NEW MEXICO 30 Nevada 23 RATING: 2★
NORTHCOAST POWERSWEEPS:
LAS VEGAS BOWL
BYU (10-2) UCLA (6-6
The MWC petitioned the P10 to release UCLA (lost 4 of L/5) so this would not be a rematch from earlier
TY, however the P10 didn?t budge (bowl wanted Cal). This marks the 3rd visit for the Bruins to this bowl
(1-1 SU & ATS) & the 9th ever meeting with BYU (UCLA leads 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS). BYU will make their 3rd
straight visit to the Las Vegas Bowl where they are 1-1 SU & 2-0 ATS. BYU travels very well to Vegas as LY
their gm vs Oreg was the largest gathering to witness a team sporting event in Nevada and earlier TY vs
UNLV, the BYU faithful accounted for 65% of the attendance. UCLA held off a late Cougar charge earlier TY
although BYU had the FD (23-15) & yardage (435-236) edges. Despite the Bruins reaching a bowl in every
ssn under HC Dorrell, he was let go following the loss to USC. DC Walker will assume interim duties and is
a potential replacement. Walker served as DB cch for BYU in ?94. Mendenhall was also rumored to be on
the Bruins? wish list although he denied interest in the job. Under Mendenhall the Cougs are 1-1 SU & 2-0
ATS in bowls. Both played AZ & Utah TY. The Bruins lost both gms SU & ATS being outscored by a 39-17
clip & outgained 428-249. BYU won both gms (SU & ATS) by an avg score of 19-12 and outgained them
by an avg of 408-250. UCLA faced 7 bowl caliber tms going 6-1 ATS despite being outgained by a 330-289
margin. BYU played 6 bowl caliber squads (4-2 SU & 3-3 ATS) outscoring them 28-24 while outgaining
them 464-334. Both tms have 17 upperclassman with the Bruins having the senior edge (12-8).
The Cougs have our #25 off avg 31 ppg & 458 ypg. After an ARZ win, BYU suffered B2B losses behind
ASU trans QB Hall. He is expected to be at full strength here as over the L/2 gms he was playing with an inj?d
throwing arm. RFr RB Unga won the job & was named MWC Frosh of Yr becoming the1st frosh at BYU (3rd
in MWC) to rush 1,000+ yds. He needs just 6 yds to break the MWC Fr rush rec?d (AF?s Boyea ?01). The OL
avg 6?5? 317 paving the way for 154 ypg (4.0) and all?g just 17 sks (3.6%). The inj bug hit BYU?s D hard as they
ret?d 7 starters but lost 2 with inj early on. They finished 10th in NCAA in ttl D (our #19 ranking) all?g 19 ppg,
307 ypg with 29 sks. The DL avg 6?2? 271 all?g 92 rush ypg (2.9 ypc, #9 NCAA) and BYU is the only team not
to allow a 100 yd rusher. They are led by DE Jorgensen who finished tied for 9th in NCAA with 12 sks. The
strength of this team is at LB which features 4 of the top 5 tacklers. The secondary was crippled with inj?s incl
2Y starter SS Gabriel who was lost prior to the ssn & FS Gooch was lost for the ssn vs TCU. BYU is the only
team in the NCAA that starts 4 walk-ons in its secondary but still finished with our #18 pass eff D all?g 215
ypg (59%) with an 11-15 ratio. The Cougars have our #66 ST?s ranking led by a KR unit that finished #19 in
the NCAA highlighted by Collie and Mahuika. The KR D ranks #11 in the NCAA allowing just 18.4 ypr.
Injuries were a major concern TY as QB Olson (PS#1 signed with BYU and transferred) started just 5
gms missing substantial time with a knee inj. Bkup QB Cowan didn?t fare much better as he battled multiple
inj?s forcing walk-on rFr Bethel-Thompson & converted WR Rasshan to play throughout the ssn. Olson looks
to be near 100% & will likely start here while Cowan?s status is up in the air after another inj vs USC. The
Bruin RB?s were also bit by the inj with RB Bell tearing his ACL mid-ssn & RB Markey battling turf toe. WR?s
Breazell & Cowan led in receiving despite the chaos at QB. The OL avg 6?4? 308 & is led by C Joseph &
RG Tevaga who helped pave the way for 150 rush ypg (3.8) while all?g 33 sks (9.2%). UCLA finished with
our #75 overall off. While the off struggled, the Bruin D was suffocating at times posting our #11 overall
ranking. The DL which avg 6?3? 264 is led by sackmaster DE Davis who tallied 22 sks over the L/2Y. UCLA
all?d 115 rush ypg (3.1) with 36 sks. The LB corps is led by MLB Taylor who played valiantly despite also
dealing with nagging inj?s. The secondary is #17 in our pass D rankings all?g 234 ypg (54%) with a 21-13
ratio & quite possibly have 2 of the best safeties in the NCAA in FS Keyes & SS Horton. The Bruins ST?s
finished with our #6 rankings led by the spectacular KR?s of Slater (3 TD?s, #5 NCAA w/30.9 avg).
The situation certainly favors the Cougars as this is their 5th game at this venue in 3 seasons. This
game also is 1 of 2 rematches (CM-Purdue) and UCLA won the 1st 27-17 (-7.5) despite BYU having
a 435-236 edge. The Bruins finished 6-6 but prior to facing USC they still had Rose Bowl aspirations.
They struggled with QB & RB inj?s but the one constant was a defense that kept them in the game and
they finished this season with a 5-0 ATS mark as an underdog. We?ll call for them to have another big
defensive effort slowing down the potent BYU offense.
FORECAST: UNDER 47 RATING: 1★
LAS VEGAS BOWL
BYU (10-2) UCLA (6-6
The MWC petitioned the P10 to release UCLA (lost 4 of L/5) so this would not be a rematch from earlier
TY, however the P10 didn?t budge (bowl wanted Cal). This marks the 3rd visit for the Bruins to this bowl
(1-1 SU & ATS) & the 9th ever meeting with BYU (UCLA leads 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS). BYU will make their 3rd
straight visit to the Las Vegas Bowl where they are 1-1 SU & 2-0 ATS. BYU travels very well to Vegas as LY
their gm vs Oreg was the largest gathering to witness a team sporting event in Nevada and earlier TY vs
UNLV, the BYU faithful accounted for 65% of the attendance. UCLA held off a late Cougar charge earlier TY
although BYU had the FD (23-15) & yardage (435-236) edges. Despite the Bruins reaching a bowl in every
ssn under HC Dorrell, he was let go following the loss to USC. DC Walker will assume interim duties and is
a potential replacement. Walker served as DB cch for BYU in ?94. Mendenhall was also rumored to be on
the Bruins? wish list although he denied interest in the job. Under Mendenhall the Cougs are 1-1 SU & 2-0
ATS in bowls. Both played AZ & Utah TY. The Bruins lost both gms SU & ATS being outscored by a 39-17
clip & outgained 428-249. BYU won both gms (SU & ATS) by an avg score of 19-12 and outgained them
by an avg of 408-250. UCLA faced 7 bowl caliber tms going 6-1 ATS despite being outgained by a 330-289
margin. BYU played 6 bowl caliber squads (4-2 SU & 3-3 ATS) outscoring them 28-24 while outgaining
them 464-334. Both tms have 17 upperclassman with the Bruins having the senior edge (12-8).
The Cougs have our #25 off avg 31 ppg & 458 ypg. After an ARZ win, BYU suffered B2B losses behind
ASU trans QB Hall. He is expected to be at full strength here as over the L/2 gms he was playing with an inj?d
throwing arm. RFr RB Unga won the job & was named MWC Frosh of Yr becoming the1st frosh at BYU (3rd
in MWC) to rush 1,000+ yds. He needs just 6 yds to break the MWC Fr rush rec?d (AF?s Boyea ?01). The OL
avg 6?5? 317 paving the way for 154 ypg (4.0) and all?g just 17 sks (3.6%). The inj bug hit BYU?s D hard as they
ret?d 7 starters but lost 2 with inj early on. They finished 10th in NCAA in ttl D (our #19 ranking) all?g 19 ppg,
307 ypg with 29 sks. The DL avg 6?2? 271 all?g 92 rush ypg (2.9 ypc, #9 NCAA) and BYU is the only team not
to allow a 100 yd rusher. They are led by DE Jorgensen who finished tied for 9th in NCAA with 12 sks. The
strength of this team is at LB which features 4 of the top 5 tacklers. The secondary was crippled with inj?s incl
2Y starter SS Gabriel who was lost prior to the ssn & FS Gooch was lost for the ssn vs TCU. BYU is the only
team in the NCAA that starts 4 walk-ons in its secondary but still finished with our #18 pass eff D all?g 215
ypg (59%) with an 11-15 ratio. The Cougars have our #66 ST?s ranking led by a KR unit that finished #19 in
the NCAA highlighted by Collie and Mahuika. The KR D ranks #11 in the NCAA allowing just 18.4 ypr.
Injuries were a major concern TY as QB Olson (PS#1 signed with BYU and transferred) started just 5
gms missing substantial time with a knee inj. Bkup QB Cowan didn?t fare much better as he battled multiple
inj?s forcing walk-on rFr Bethel-Thompson & converted WR Rasshan to play throughout the ssn. Olson looks
to be near 100% & will likely start here while Cowan?s status is up in the air after another inj vs USC. The
Bruin RB?s were also bit by the inj with RB Bell tearing his ACL mid-ssn & RB Markey battling turf toe. WR?s
Breazell & Cowan led in receiving despite the chaos at QB. The OL avg 6?4? 308 & is led by C Joseph &
RG Tevaga who helped pave the way for 150 rush ypg (3.8) while all?g 33 sks (9.2%). UCLA finished with
our #75 overall off. While the off struggled, the Bruin D was suffocating at times posting our #11 overall
ranking. The DL which avg 6?3? 264 is led by sackmaster DE Davis who tallied 22 sks over the L/2Y. UCLA
all?d 115 rush ypg (3.1) with 36 sks. The LB corps is led by MLB Taylor who played valiantly despite also
dealing with nagging inj?s. The secondary is #17 in our pass D rankings all?g 234 ypg (54%) with a 21-13
ratio & quite possibly have 2 of the best safeties in the NCAA in FS Keyes & SS Horton. The Bruins ST?s
finished with our #6 rankings led by the spectacular KR?s of Slater (3 TD?s, #5 NCAA w/30.9 avg).
The situation certainly favors the Cougars as this is their 5th game at this venue in 3 seasons. This
game also is 1 of 2 rematches (CM-Purdue) and UCLA won the 1st 27-17 (-7.5) despite BYU having
a 435-236 edge. The Bruins finished 6-6 but prior to facing USC they still had Rose Bowl aspirations.
They struggled with QB & RB inj?s but the one constant was a defense that kept them in the game and
they finished this season with a 5-0 ATS mark as an underdog. We?ll call for them to have another big
defensive effort slowing down the potent BYU offense.
FORECAST: UNDER 47 RATING: 1★
NORTHCOAST POWERSWEEPS:
BOISE ST (10-2) EAST CAROLINA (7-5)
HAWAII BOWL
First meeting. The Pirates are excited about going to Hawaii but are disappointed they are not in the Liberty
Bowl. EC was part of the highest scoring bowl in a 64-61 (2OT) loss to Marshall (?01 GMAC) & is 4-4 (3-4
ATS) in bowls. The Pirates played a tough non-conf slate inc 3 ACC tms & WV (2 Top 10) going 1-3 SU & ATS.
EC has faced 6 bowl tms going 3-3 SU & 4-2 ATS being outgained by 111 ypg & outscored 34-30. EC has 6
senior starters among the 15 upperclassmen. The Pirates are 8-4 ATS on turf, 19-17 SU (25-11 ATS) overall
under Hotlz, 12-3 ATS as an AD & 8-4 ATS vs non-conf under Holtz. Both tms faced S Miss with EC losing
28-21(+1) being outgained 383-300 while Boise dominated 38-16 (-10?) outgaining them 516-345 (most yds
SM surrendered TY). Boise?s hopes of playing in B2B BCS bowls fell short but they still turned in a strong ssn
going 10-2 SU (6-5 ATS) with the two losses coming in AG?s at Wash (24-10, -3) & Hawaii (39-27, +2?). The
Boise players voted to come here vs staying home for the Humanitarian. This is Boise?s 6th cons bowl & its 8th
in 9 yrs & the Broncos are 5-2 SU & ATS. Boise went 3-1 SU & 2-2 ATS vs bowl tms TY. BSU HC Petersen is
23-2 SU & 13-10 ATS in 2 yrs at Boise. The Broncos closed out the ssn with a 4-1 ATS run & will actually be
playing their 2nd cons gm here in Aloha Stadium as they closed out the reg ssn vs Hawaii in the quasi WAC
Championship. While 2,000 BSU fans made the trek to the Islands on Thanksgiving Day weekend, officials
expect this to be the Broncos worst attended bowl game (previous low 1,200 for ?03 Fort Worth Bowl).
BSU has our #18 rated offense led by QB Tharp who entered ?07 with limited experience having
thrown for only 359 yds (64%) with a 2-3 ratio from ?04-?06. After a slow start he turned it on during a
four-gm stretch and threw for 1,206 yds (302 ypg) & 15 TD. LY RB Johnson ran for 1,713 yds & NCAA-high
25 TD & while defenses keyed in on him TY he still finished 3rd in the WAC in rushing & led the conf in
scoring (10.2 ppg) despite missing two gms (bruised kidney). BSU?s backfield also received a boost with
the addition of a pair of talented Fr RB?s in Avery & Harper. Boise had to replace its top trio of WR?s from
LY (James, Raab & Naanee) who combined for 1,777 yds & 14 TD, but WR Childs stepped up in a big
way TY en route to setting a BSU single-ssn rec record. Four of Boise?s five starters returned along the
OL TY which avg 6?4? 305 lbs & paved the way for 4.7 ypc while giving up 18 sks (4.3%). Boise has our
#40 rated defense & racked up 32 sks while limiting tms to 3.4 ypc on the ground. The Broncos? DL avg
6?3? 265 & is anchored by two Jr?s & Sr?s. Its LB corps is led by a quartet of Jr?s in Gingg, Brady, Shields
& Dobbs (led tm in ints). Boise is ranked #14 in pass eff def all?g 212 ypg (54%) with a 16-14 ratio. BSU
features our #14 ST unit led by PK Brotzman who missed just 2 of 17 FG att (from 49 & 51 yds).
EC has our #73 rated offense & is led by 2 QB?s who split time in Pinkney & Kass who played in the
Papajohns.com Bowl LY due to an injury & hit 10-19 (53%) for 138 yds. Holtz uses them as situational QB?s
& it hurt down the stretch as they avg just 174 ypg rush (56%) the L/3 as neither QB could get in a rhythm.
Both QB?s spread the ball around as 7 rec?s have DD catches. RB Johnson was challenged by Holtz coming
into his Sr ssn & answered with a career high in rush yds & became the Pirates? all-time leader in all-purpose
yds. The OL is the best Holtz has had in his 3 yrs but took a lot of tweaking to get it there. The OL is led by
Sr?s Coffman & Butler & the unit avg 6?5? 295 opening holes for 171 ypg (4.7), the most S/?01. The Pirates all?d
24 sks (6.4%) but just 4 in the L/4 gms. The Pirate D ranks #84 but only has 2 Sr def starters & the strength
is the DL. The starting front 4 all?d 146 ypg rush (3.9), its lowest ypc allowed S/?01 & also had 31 tfl. The DL
avg 6?4? 275 & has 20.5 of the teams 26 sks (79%). The LB corps has 3 of the top 5 tacklers but has been
nicked up all year. EC struggled in the secondary & ranks #99 in our pass eff D all?g 291 ypg pass (most in
L/20Y) 64% with a 24-15 ratio. On the ssn they all?d 5 foes 335+ pass ypg. However, the Pirates are +13 in
TO?s ranking #6 in the NCAA. EC is just #95 in ST?s with KR Johnson (28.5) being the lone standout.
The Broncos followed up their undefeated 12-0 ?06 season with a solid 10-2 record. That however is
deemed a disappointment at Boise as a win vs Hawaii would have placed them in the BCS pool. They did
vote to travel to the Islands for a second straight game instead of hosting the Humanitarian Bowl. East
Carolina finished at 7-5 but 3 losses were to BCS schools inc 2 BCS bowl teams (VT & WV). The Pirates will
benefit from the time off to regain their health and they have been a lethal underdog under HC Holtz with a
12-3 ATS mark as an AD. The Pirates are an opportunistic team and will relish this role as a big underdog.
FORECAST: EAST CAROLINA (+) 30 Boise St 34 RATING: 2★
BOISE ST (10-2) EAST CAROLINA (7-5)
HAWAII BOWL
First meeting. The Pirates are excited about going to Hawaii but are disappointed they are not in the Liberty
Bowl. EC was part of the highest scoring bowl in a 64-61 (2OT) loss to Marshall (?01 GMAC) & is 4-4 (3-4
ATS) in bowls. The Pirates played a tough non-conf slate inc 3 ACC tms & WV (2 Top 10) going 1-3 SU & ATS.
EC has faced 6 bowl tms going 3-3 SU & 4-2 ATS being outgained by 111 ypg & outscored 34-30. EC has 6
senior starters among the 15 upperclassmen. The Pirates are 8-4 ATS on turf, 19-17 SU (25-11 ATS) overall
under Hotlz, 12-3 ATS as an AD & 8-4 ATS vs non-conf under Holtz. Both tms faced S Miss with EC losing
28-21(+1) being outgained 383-300 while Boise dominated 38-16 (-10?) outgaining them 516-345 (most yds
SM surrendered TY). Boise?s hopes of playing in B2B BCS bowls fell short but they still turned in a strong ssn
going 10-2 SU (6-5 ATS) with the two losses coming in AG?s at Wash (24-10, -3) & Hawaii (39-27, +2?). The
Boise players voted to come here vs staying home for the Humanitarian. This is Boise?s 6th cons bowl & its 8th
in 9 yrs & the Broncos are 5-2 SU & ATS. Boise went 3-1 SU & 2-2 ATS vs bowl tms TY. BSU HC Petersen is
23-2 SU & 13-10 ATS in 2 yrs at Boise. The Broncos closed out the ssn with a 4-1 ATS run & will actually be
playing their 2nd cons gm here in Aloha Stadium as they closed out the reg ssn vs Hawaii in the quasi WAC
Championship. While 2,000 BSU fans made the trek to the Islands on Thanksgiving Day weekend, officials
expect this to be the Broncos worst attended bowl game (previous low 1,200 for ?03 Fort Worth Bowl).
BSU has our #18 rated offense led by QB Tharp who entered ?07 with limited experience having
thrown for only 359 yds (64%) with a 2-3 ratio from ?04-?06. After a slow start he turned it on during a
four-gm stretch and threw for 1,206 yds (302 ypg) & 15 TD. LY RB Johnson ran for 1,713 yds & NCAA-high
25 TD & while defenses keyed in on him TY he still finished 3rd in the WAC in rushing & led the conf in
scoring (10.2 ppg) despite missing two gms (bruised kidney). BSU?s backfield also received a boost with
the addition of a pair of talented Fr RB?s in Avery & Harper. Boise had to replace its top trio of WR?s from
LY (James, Raab & Naanee) who combined for 1,777 yds & 14 TD, but WR Childs stepped up in a big
way TY en route to setting a BSU single-ssn rec record. Four of Boise?s five starters returned along the
OL TY which avg 6?4? 305 lbs & paved the way for 4.7 ypc while giving up 18 sks (4.3%). Boise has our
#40 rated defense & racked up 32 sks while limiting tms to 3.4 ypc on the ground. The Broncos? DL avg
6?3? 265 & is anchored by two Jr?s & Sr?s. Its LB corps is led by a quartet of Jr?s in Gingg, Brady, Shields
& Dobbs (led tm in ints). Boise is ranked #14 in pass eff def all?g 212 ypg (54%) with a 16-14 ratio. BSU
features our #14 ST unit led by PK Brotzman who missed just 2 of 17 FG att (from 49 & 51 yds).
EC has our #73 rated offense & is led by 2 QB?s who split time in Pinkney & Kass who played in the
Papajohns.com Bowl LY due to an injury & hit 10-19 (53%) for 138 yds. Holtz uses them as situational QB?s
& it hurt down the stretch as they avg just 174 ypg rush (56%) the L/3 as neither QB could get in a rhythm.
Both QB?s spread the ball around as 7 rec?s have DD catches. RB Johnson was challenged by Holtz coming
into his Sr ssn & answered with a career high in rush yds & became the Pirates? all-time leader in all-purpose
yds. The OL is the best Holtz has had in his 3 yrs but took a lot of tweaking to get it there. The OL is led by
Sr?s Coffman & Butler & the unit avg 6?5? 295 opening holes for 171 ypg (4.7), the most S/?01. The Pirates all?d
24 sks (6.4%) but just 4 in the L/4 gms. The Pirate D ranks #84 but only has 2 Sr def starters & the strength
is the DL. The starting front 4 all?d 146 ypg rush (3.9), its lowest ypc allowed S/?01 & also had 31 tfl. The DL
avg 6?4? 275 & has 20.5 of the teams 26 sks (79%). The LB corps has 3 of the top 5 tacklers but has been
nicked up all year. EC struggled in the secondary & ranks #99 in our pass eff D all?g 291 ypg pass (most in
L/20Y) 64% with a 24-15 ratio. On the ssn they all?d 5 foes 335+ pass ypg. However, the Pirates are +13 in
TO?s ranking #6 in the NCAA. EC is just #95 in ST?s with KR Johnson (28.5) being the lone standout.
The Broncos followed up their undefeated 12-0 ?06 season with a solid 10-2 record. That however is
deemed a disappointment at Boise as a win vs Hawaii would have placed them in the BCS pool. They did
vote to travel to the Islands for a second straight game instead of hosting the Humanitarian Bowl. East
Carolina finished at 7-5 but 3 losses were to BCS schools inc 2 BCS bowl teams (VT & WV). The Pirates will
benefit from the time off to regain their health and they have been a lethal underdog under HC Holtz with a
12-3 ATS mark as an AD. The Pirates are an opportunistic team and will relish this role as a big underdog.
FORECAST: EAST CAROLINA (+) 30 Boise St 34 RATING: 2★
NORTHCOAST POWERSWEEPS:
PURDUE (7-5) C MICHIGAN (8-5)
MOTOR CITY BOWL
The Motor City Bowl finally landed a B10 opponent for the 1st time S/?03 as the Boilers dropped their
L/3 gms and 5 of their L/7 after a 5-0 start. This is rematch of a Sept 15th meeting in which the Boilers
won 45-22 after leading 31-0 at the half while compiling 402 yds. PU finished with 586 yds overall despite
5 TO?s including 4 fmbls. CM is 0-14 SU, 3-10-1 ATS vs the Big Ten S/?94 while Purdue is 34-7-1 SU
but 3-5 ATS vs the MAC (2-0 TY). Purdue has gone bowling in 10 of the 11 yrs of Tiller?s tenure (3-6 SU
& 4-5 ATS) with CM being the 1st non-BCS foe. Slow starts have been the norm as Purdue has fallen
behind 95-0 in the L/6 bowls. The Boilers have played 8 gms vs bowl eligible teams (3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS)
being slightly outscored 27.1-26.6 while outgaining those foes 397-388. CM was 1-3 SU and ATS being
outscored 51-25 and outgained 537-427. This is the Boilers? 1st trip to Ford Field where CM is 3-0 SU
and ATS the L/2Y including two MAC Championship games and a 31-14 win over MT in LY?s Motor City
Bowl. CM should have the crowd edge as they expect to sell 15,000 tickets while PU hopes to bring 5,000
fans. PU is 4-1-1 ATS an AF (2-1 TY). The Boilers have their most veteran team yet under Tiller with 9
senior starters and 17 upperclassmen. CM has 9 senior starters and 14 upperclassmen but also the
MAC Freshman of the Year in Antonio Brown. Purdue last played on Nov 17 while CM played Dec 1.
The Boilers started out ?07 on fire winning their first 5 gms (CM, IAA E Ill & 3 tms with losing records) by
25 ppg. QB Painter ?Breesed? through those overmatched foes with an 18-3 ratio. Once PU got to the meat
of their Big Ten schedule reality quickly set in as OSU and Michigan manhandled the Boilers by a combined
71-28 with 3 of PU?s TD?s coming in the L/1:00. PU rebounded to win their next 2 vs Iowa & NW before
stumbling in their L/3. The Boilers had an inconsistent ground game with Sheets having fmbl problems and
Taylor missing 4 gms with a broken arm. The receiving corps had 2 standouts in WR Bryant and TE Keller
(Mackey semis) but 6?4? Lymon suffered a sophomore slump before eventually being kicked off the team.
The OL is large (6?5? 310) and does a good job protecting Painter (23 sks allowed, 4.3%). Boilers are #39 in
our off rankings. PU?s D (#58) returned 9 starters but the undersized front 4 (6?4? 269) struggled vs the run
(149 rush ypg, 4.0 allowed) and failed to generate a strong pass rush (24 sks). The LB?s were solid finishing
as 4 of the team?s top 6 tacklers. Despite inj?s the secondary was greatly improved finishing #32 in our pass
eff D with CB Vinson actually leading the team in tackles, pbu and int. PU had their best ST unit of the Tiller
era finishing #5 with the one of the NCAA?s top KR units (#7) which scored 3 TD led by Bryant.
CM has our #23 offense. Their main weapon is QB LeFevour who is #5 in the NCAA in total offense
as he had over 3,000 yds passing and 1,000 yds rushing joining Vince Young as the only players to
do so. LeFevour attended PU camps in HS but was never offered a scholarship by the Boilers. The
Chippewas also have two RB?s who combined for over 1,000 yds rushing in Hoskins and LY?s leading
rusher Sneed. Their top two WR?s, Brown and Anderson, have combined for 53% of CM?s receptions
and 55% of their receiving yds. The OL avg 6?4? 294 with 3 seniors which has opened holes for 5.0
ypc while allowing just 16 sacks (3.1%). CM has our #112 def allowing 36 ppg with 5 gms over 40 pts
including two over 50 pts. The DL avg 6?3? 264 with 2 seniors allowing 4.1 ypc with 22 sacks led by DE
Zombo, who leads the team in sacks. The top three tacklers are all LB?s led by 2 seniors including Keith,
the MAC?s #2 tackler. The Chippewas? weakest link is the secondary with 4 underclassmen starters as
they have our #110 pass eff D allowing 285 ypg (65%) and a poor 31-16 ratio. CM comes in with our
#91 ranked ST?s unit. Brown was the bright spot of the ST leading the team in KR and PR with 1 TD.
They allowed two return TD?s and 10.4 ypr on punts but just 19.4 on KR.
This matchup gave us a 4H Key Selection winner in the first meeting as Purdue was a 21? point
favorite. The Boilermakers are now a single digit favorite and while CM has the emotional edge and is
thrilled to be here, the disparity in talent will become obvious in the 2H. Purdue will be able to run the
ball against a defense allowing 4.1 ypc and pass the ball against a secondary ranked #110 in our pass
eff defense. Three straight bowl losses and a 24-7 loss to Mayland LY (outgained 429-285) will ensure
that Purdue is ready. There?s also a big edge in coaching with Tiller matching up vs a bowl virgin.
FORECAST: PURDUE 48 Central Michigan 31 RATING: 4★
PURDUE (7-5) C MICHIGAN (8-5)
MOTOR CITY BOWL
The Motor City Bowl finally landed a B10 opponent for the 1st time S/?03 as the Boilers dropped their
L/3 gms and 5 of their L/7 after a 5-0 start. This is rematch of a Sept 15th meeting in which the Boilers
won 45-22 after leading 31-0 at the half while compiling 402 yds. PU finished with 586 yds overall despite
5 TO?s including 4 fmbls. CM is 0-14 SU, 3-10-1 ATS vs the Big Ten S/?94 while Purdue is 34-7-1 SU
but 3-5 ATS vs the MAC (2-0 TY). Purdue has gone bowling in 10 of the 11 yrs of Tiller?s tenure (3-6 SU
& 4-5 ATS) with CM being the 1st non-BCS foe. Slow starts have been the norm as Purdue has fallen
behind 95-0 in the L/6 bowls. The Boilers have played 8 gms vs bowl eligible teams (3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS)
being slightly outscored 27.1-26.6 while outgaining those foes 397-388. CM was 1-3 SU and ATS being
outscored 51-25 and outgained 537-427. This is the Boilers? 1st trip to Ford Field where CM is 3-0 SU
and ATS the L/2Y including two MAC Championship games and a 31-14 win over MT in LY?s Motor City
Bowl. CM should have the crowd edge as they expect to sell 15,000 tickets while PU hopes to bring 5,000
fans. PU is 4-1-1 ATS an AF (2-1 TY). The Boilers have their most veteran team yet under Tiller with 9
senior starters and 17 upperclassmen. CM has 9 senior starters and 14 upperclassmen but also the
MAC Freshman of the Year in Antonio Brown. Purdue last played on Nov 17 while CM played Dec 1.
The Boilers started out ?07 on fire winning their first 5 gms (CM, IAA E Ill & 3 tms with losing records) by
25 ppg. QB Painter ?Breesed? through those overmatched foes with an 18-3 ratio. Once PU got to the meat
of their Big Ten schedule reality quickly set in as OSU and Michigan manhandled the Boilers by a combined
71-28 with 3 of PU?s TD?s coming in the L/1:00. PU rebounded to win their next 2 vs Iowa & NW before
stumbling in their L/3. The Boilers had an inconsistent ground game with Sheets having fmbl problems and
Taylor missing 4 gms with a broken arm. The receiving corps had 2 standouts in WR Bryant and TE Keller
(Mackey semis) but 6?4? Lymon suffered a sophomore slump before eventually being kicked off the team.
The OL is large (6?5? 310) and does a good job protecting Painter (23 sks allowed, 4.3%). Boilers are #39 in
our off rankings. PU?s D (#58) returned 9 starters but the undersized front 4 (6?4? 269) struggled vs the run
(149 rush ypg, 4.0 allowed) and failed to generate a strong pass rush (24 sks). The LB?s were solid finishing
as 4 of the team?s top 6 tacklers. Despite inj?s the secondary was greatly improved finishing #32 in our pass
eff D with CB Vinson actually leading the team in tackles, pbu and int. PU had their best ST unit of the Tiller
era finishing #5 with the one of the NCAA?s top KR units (#7) which scored 3 TD led by Bryant.
CM has our #23 offense. Their main weapon is QB LeFevour who is #5 in the NCAA in total offense
as he had over 3,000 yds passing and 1,000 yds rushing joining Vince Young as the only players to
do so. LeFevour attended PU camps in HS but was never offered a scholarship by the Boilers. The
Chippewas also have two RB?s who combined for over 1,000 yds rushing in Hoskins and LY?s leading
rusher Sneed. Their top two WR?s, Brown and Anderson, have combined for 53% of CM?s receptions
and 55% of their receiving yds. The OL avg 6?4? 294 with 3 seniors which has opened holes for 5.0
ypc while allowing just 16 sacks (3.1%). CM has our #112 def allowing 36 ppg with 5 gms over 40 pts
including two over 50 pts. The DL avg 6?3? 264 with 2 seniors allowing 4.1 ypc with 22 sacks led by DE
Zombo, who leads the team in sacks. The top three tacklers are all LB?s led by 2 seniors including Keith,
the MAC?s #2 tackler. The Chippewas? weakest link is the secondary with 4 underclassmen starters as
they have our #110 pass eff D allowing 285 ypg (65%) and a poor 31-16 ratio. CM comes in with our
#91 ranked ST?s unit. Brown was the bright spot of the ST leading the team in KR and PR with 1 TD.
They allowed two return TD?s and 10.4 ypr on punts but just 19.4 on KR.
This matchup gave us a 4H Key Selection winner in the first meeting as Purdue was a 21? point
favorite. The Boilermakers are now a single digit favorite and while CM has the emotional edge and is
thrilled to be here, the disparity in talent will become obvious in the 2H. Purdue will be able to run the
ball against a defense allowing 4.1 ypc and pass the ball against a secondary ranked #110 in our pass
eff defense. Three straight bowl losses and a 24-7 loss to Mayland LY (outgained 429-285) will ensure
that Purdue is ready. There?s also a big edge in coaching with Tiller matching up vs a bowl virgin.
FORECAST: PURDUE 48 Central Michigan 31 RATING: 4★
NORTHCOAST POWERSWEEPS:
ARIZONA ST (10-2) TEXAS (9-3)
HOLLIDAY BOWL
This will be the 1st meeting between these programs. Texas is making a bowl trip for the 10th straight
year (23-21-2 all-time). Longhorns are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in the Holiday Bowl & are 0-5 ATS S/?95 in non-NYD
bowls. Arizona St (12-10-1 all-time) is 0-2 SU, but 2-0 ATS in the Holiday Bowl (lost 27-4, +18? in last trip
here vs #6 K-St). Sun Devil HC Erickson is 5-5 in bowls (4-6 ATS) and this is the 4th different team he has
guided to the post season. Horns? HC Brown is 9-6 SU & 6-9 ATS (3-6 ATS w/UT) in bowls. ASU & UT are
both disappointed not to be playing on NYD. ASU did sell their allotment of tickets, but Texas might have the
fan edge due to the Longhorns? faithful fans. ASU is 4-2 SU & 3-3 ATS vs bowl caliber tms outscoring opp?s
on avg 30-28 & being outgained 381-378. UT is 4-2 SU & 3-2-1 ATS vs bowl caliber teams outscoring foes
on avg 36-32 & outgaining them 464-432. Texas has 8 senior starters with 15 upperclassman (68%) while
ASU has 10 senior starters with 18 upperclassman (82%). The Sun Devils are 6-16 ATS as AD?s, incl TY?s
loss in Eugene (w/Dixon). Horns are 2-7-1 ATS as an AF (including LY?s bowl). Texas has had 8 more days
to prepare as ASU finished up on Dec 1st. While UT (#6) & ASU (#26) both rank high offensively, the Sun
Devils have a slight def edge (#14-32), and have played a stronger sked (#9-25).
QB Carpenter flourished in Erickson?s system increasing the tms ppg avg from 26.8 to 32.2 TY.
The ground gm was a surprising plus for the 2nd consec yr despite #1RB Torain going down mid-ssn
w/inj as Herring & Nance did a solid job in his absence. WR Jones continues to be the deep threat in
the receiving corps while McGaha leads the tm in rec & rec yds but surprisingly has yet to reach the
EZ. ASU?s OL avg 6?5? 315 and is full of experience with 4 Sr?s & 1 Jr paving the way for 147 ypg (3.4)
but surprisingly allowed a Pac 10 high 51 sks (only SYR & ND allowed more nationally). Altogether
the offense has our #26 ranking. For the 2nd straight ssn, ASU?s def started on fire holding 4 of their
first 5 opponents to 14 pts or less. The DL avg 6?3? 267 & is led by Davis and Vasquez allowing 101
ypg (3.4) on the ground while recording 27 ttl sks. The LB corps is led by James who led the tm in
tkls (37 more than #2). The ASU secondary is ranked #6 in pass eff def allowing 232 ypg (52%) with
a 17-17 ratio. They are led by a dangerous CB in Tryon & playmaking SS Nolan. ASU finished with
our #14 overall defense. First yr K Weber had an AA ssn converting on all but 1 of his FG attempts
earning the Groza Award in the process. The Sun Devils finished with our #39 ST ranking.
Texas has had one of the most inconsistent seasons under Brown, but he is the only active IA HC
to guide his tms to 9+ wins in 11 consec ssns. After B2B opening Big XII losses, the Longhorns avg win
was by 19 ppg while they outgained foes by 126 ypg before running into an emotional A&M squad in
their ssn finale. Brown still had UT one gm from a Title shot & a possible BCS bowl. Soph QB McCoy
had a little slump as he tossed an int in every gm TY except vs Rice (#105 pass eff D) & ISU (#106).
The rushing attack was stellar led by Charles with six 100+ yd gms including a career best 290 (8.8)
vs Nebraska. The Longhorns came into TY with one of the most explosive WR corps in the country, but
suffered a huge loss when Sr Sweed had ssn ending wrist surg at mid-ssn. Sr Jones & former minor
league baseball player Cosby stepped up as the primary targets. The OL avg 6?5?? 305 with NO senior
starters but 1st Tm All-Big 12 Sr LT Hills (6?6?? 305) broke his left fibula on 11/10 & Sr C Griffin (6?4?? 285)
tore an ACL on 11/3 & going into the bowl they are very inexperienced with just 1 upperclassman in the
3 deep. The DL avg 6?3?? 284 with 2 senior starters & this is a deep unit allowing 3.0 ypc & UT is ranked
#10 in NCAA in rush D all?g just 99 ypg. UT has a lot of talent in the secondary, but ranks #56 (all?g 276
ypg, 62%, 20-14 ratio). Texas has our #6 ranked offense, #32 defense & #25 sp tms.
This bowl features a pair of HC?s with National Championships. Both teams have a propensity to fall
behind early and rally back. Texas had an uneven season and did not win & cover consec games this
year and finished their season getting upset by A&M for a 2nd straight year. ASU did finish by beating
UA but failed to cover any of their final 4 gms. As you can see by the checklist, we rate these teams even
but the Sun Devils get the call being a team thrilled to be here vs a team that is 0-5 ATS on non-NY Day
bowls and that expected to be a national contender or at the minimum a BCS bowl team.
FORECAST: ARIZONA STATE (+) 35 Texas 32 RATING: 2★
ARIZONA ST (10-2) TEXAS (9-3)
HOLLIDAY BOWL
This will be the 1st meeting between these programs. Texas is making a bowl trip for the 10th straight
year (23-21-2 all-time). Longhorns are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in the Holiday Bowl & are 0-5 ATS S/?95 in non-NYD
bowls. Arizona St (12-10-1 all-time) is 0-2 SU, but 2-0 ATS in the Holiday Bowl (lost 27-4, +18? in last trip
here vs #6 K-St). Sun Devil HC Erickson is 5-5 in bowls (4-6 ATS) and this is the 4th different team he has
guided to the post season. Horns? HC Brown is 9-6 SU & 6-9 ATS (3-6 ATS w/UT) in bowls. ASU & UT are
both disappointed not to be playing on NYD. ASU did sell their allotment of tickets, but Texas might have the
fan edge due to the Longhorns? faithful fans. ASU is 4-2 SU & 3-3 ATS vs bowl caliber tms outscoring opp?s
on avg 30-28 & being outgained 381-378. UT is 4-2 SU & 3-2-1 ATS vs bowl caliber teams outscoring foes
on avg 36-32 & outgaining them 464-432. Texas has 8 senior starters with 15 upperclassman (68%) while
ASU has 10 senior starters with 18 upperclassman (82%). The Sun Devils are 6-16 ATS as AD?s, incl TY?s
loss in Eugene (w/Dixon). Horns are 2-7-1 ATS as an AF (including LY?s bowl). Texas has had 8 more days
to prepare as ASU finished up on Dec 1st. While UT (#6) & ASU (#26) both rank high offensively, the Sun
Devils have a slight def edge (#14-32), and have played a stronger sked (#9-25).
QB Carpenter flourished in Erickson?s system increasing the tms ppg avg from 26.8 to 32.2 TY.
The ground gm was a surprising plus for the 2nd consec yr despite #1RB Torain going down mid-ssn
w/inj as Herring & Nance did a solid job in his absence. WR Jones continues to be the deep threat in
the receiving corps while McGaha leads the tm in rec & rec yds but surprisingly has yet to reach the
EZ. ASU?s OL avg 6?5? 315 and is full of experience with 4 Sr?s & 1 Jr paving the way for 147 ypg (3.4)
but surprisingly allowed a Pac 10 high 51 sks (only SYR & ND allowed more nationally). Altogether
the offense has our #26 ranking. For the 2nd straight ssn, ASU?s def started on fire holding 4 of their
first 5 opponents to 14 pts or less. The DL avg 6?3? 267 & is led by Davis and Vasquez allowing 101
ypg (3.4) on the ground while recording 27 ttl sks. The LB corps is led by James who led the tm in
tkls (37 more than #2). The ASU secondary is ranked #6 in pass eff def allowing 232 ypg (52%) with
a 17-17 ratio. They are led by a dangerous CB in Tryon & playmaking SS Nolan. ASU finished with
our #14 overall defense. First yr K Weber had an AA ssn converting on all but 1 of his FG attempts
earning the Groza Award in the process. The Sun Devils finished with our #39 ST ranking.
Texas has had one of the most inconsistent seasons under Brown, but he is the only active IA HC
to guide his tms to 9+ wins in 11 consec ssns. After B2B opening Big XII losses, the Longhorns avg win
was by 19 ppg while they outgained foes by 126 ypg before running into an emotional A&M squad in
their ssn finale. Brown still had UT one gm from a Title shot & a possible BCS bowl. Soph QB McCoy
had a little slump as he tossed an int in every gm TY except vs Rice (#105 pass eff D) & ISU (#106).
The rushing attack was stellar led by Charles with six 100+ yd gms including a career best 290 (8.8)
vs Nebraska. The Longhorns came into TY with one of the most explosive WR corps in the country, but
suffered a huge loss when Sr Sweed had ssn ending wrist surg at mid-ssn. Sr Jones & former minor
league baseball player Cosby stepped up as the primary targets. The OL avg 6?5?? 305 with NO senior
starters but 1st Tm All-Big 12 Sr LT Hills (6?6?? 305) broke his left fibula on 11/10 & Sr C Griffin (6?4?? 285)
tore an ACL on 11/3 & going into the bowl they are very inexperienced with just 1 upperclassman in the
3 deep. The DL avg 6?3?? 284 with 2 senior starters & this is a deep unit allowing 3.0 ypc & UT is ranked
#10 in NCAA in rush D all?g just 99 ypg. UT has a lot of talent in the secondary, but ranks #56 (all?g 276
ypg, 62%, 20-14 ratio). Texas has our #6 ranked offense, #32 defense & #25 sp tms.
This bowl features a pair of HC?s with National Championships. Both teams have a propensity to fall
behind early and rally back. Texas had an uneven season and did not win & cover consec games this
year and finished their season getting upset by A&M for a 2nd straight year. ASU did finish by beating
UA but failed to cover any of their final 4 gms. As you can see by the checklist, we rate these teams even
but the Sun Devils get the call being a team thrilled to be here vs a team that is 0-5 ATS on non-NY Day
bowls and that expected to be a national contender or at the minimum a BCS bowl team.
FORECAST: ARIZONA STATE (+) 35 Texas 32 RATING: 2★
NORTHCOAST POWERSWEEPS:
BOSTON COLLEGE (10-3) MICHIGAN ST (7-5)
CHAMPS SPORTS BOWL
This will be the 6th meeting and Boston College holds a 3-1-1 SU & 1-1 ATS record. This is BC?s 9th
consecutive bowl game winning 7 in a row SU (6-1 ATS). BC played in the then-Carquest Bowl in ?94 &
defeated Virginia 31-13. Michigan St returns to the post season for the first time S/?03. They are 7-10 SU
(5-8 ATS) all-time in bowls and this is their first trip to this bowl. Dantonio is 1-0 SU & ATS in the bowls as
a HC with a 32-14 win over Marshall in the ?04 Ft Worth Bowl. This is Jagodzinski?s first year as a HC &
first bowl game. The Eagles have won 10 gms in B2B years for the 1st time in BC history. These 2 have
faced 2 common opp?s TY (BG & ND) and the Eagles outscored those opp?s 41-19 while the Spartans had
a 30-16 edge. BC has faced 7 bowl caliber teams (Virginia Tech twice) and outscored those opp?s 27-24
and outgained them 436-358. MSU had the tougher overall sked facing 9 bowl caliber teams outscoring
them 34-31 and outgaining them 427-388. MSU has 15,000 alums who live in Florida and should be
well represented as they finished the year winning their last 2 to earn this bid. BC fans are known as
poor travellers. The Eagles are 4-11 ATS as an AF (0-2 TY) while MSU was 3-0 ATS as an AD TY. The
Eagles were in the ACC Championship game on Dec 1 while MSU has not played since Nov 17th. BC
has 8 seniors and 14 upperclassmen starters while MSU has 10 seniors and 17 upperclassmen.
Even though BC finished #2 in the ACC and #14 overall they were still passed up by the Chick-fil-A
and Gator Bowls. This season BC had a lot of ?firsts? beginning with a first year coach, 8-0 record for
the first time since 1942, beat Miami for the first time since 1984 and won their division & played in the
ACC Championship game for the first time. They can send the seniors out with just 12 losses in their 4
years, the winningest class ever. BC is led by the ACC POY & Unitas Award winner QB Matt Ryan (#3
NCAA total pass yds), who broke Doug Flutie?s BC season record for TD passes. RB Callender is not
only the top rusher but leads the teams in rec?s. The OL avg?s 6?6? 292 with 2 senior starters. BC has only
allowed 19 sks TY (3.1%) but also only avg?d 105 ypg rush (3.6). BC is led by the nation?s #1 rushing D
which allowed only 68.2 ypg (2.2). The DL avg 6?3? 274 with just 1 senior starter and the defense posted
34 sacks. Herzlich & Dunbar (hampered by sprained ankle) are the top 2 LB?s with a combined 16.5 tfl.
BC is #24 in scoring D, however MSU scored 83 pts in the last 2 gms (Purdue & Penn St). The Eagles
have our #63 pass eff D (#33 NCAA) allowing 261 ypg (60%) with a 19-21 ratio. The secondary is led
by Thorpe finalist FS Silva. BC has our #50 sp tms. The loss of LS Jack Geiser (knee) became costly in
the ACC title game when his backup was slow on a couple of snaps and 2 kicks were blocked.
The 3rd time may finally be the charm as Mark Dantonio is the third MSU HC hired since Nick
Saban left. Dantonio brought the Spartans some much needed toughness and discipline and scrapped
the team?s spread to go with a power running game. Luckily Dantonio had the horses to do it as speedy
Ringer and bruising Caulcrick combined for 2,159 yds and 27 TD?s. QB Hoyer steadily built confidence
in his first year as a starter and finished #2 in the B10 in pass eff. WR Thomas went from a little used JC
transfer to the team?s go-to receiver. TE Davis played both ways and finally lived up to his vast potential.
The huge OL (6?6? 310 avg) started 5 upperclassmen and paved the way for 4.4 ypc (4.0 in ?06) although
they did allow 30 sks (8.4%). MSU is one of 9 NCAA teams to avg 200 ypg both rushing & passing and is
#17 in our off rankings. The Spartans have struggled for years to develop a pass rush but that changed
under ex-DC Dantonio as MSU finished #12 in the NCAA with 37 sks. The DL was anchored by ?The
Sack Master? DE Saint-Dic who had a league record 8 FF. True frosh LB Jones led the team in tackles
in an impressive debut. The secondary was a weak spot with preseason All Conf FS Wiley benched at
times and MSU playing true frosh and ex-WR?s at CB. MSU finished #79 in pass eff D and #50 in our
overall defensive rankings. MSU finished #83 in ST?s with KR Thomas (28.1) the lone standout.
The line may look surprising with a 10-3 BC team only favored by a FG vs a 7-5 Mich St squad.
BC did drop the ACC title game and throughout this entire season they felt they were heading to a BCS
bowl. This team lived on TO?s but only had 3 int in the L/6gm of the season and are now without top
sackman DL Albright. Michigan St won their L2 both as underdogs and all 5 of MSU?s losses were by
7 pts or less with 2 coming in OT. MSU?s emotions are also the polar opposite of BC?s as they thought
they were headed to Detroit to play a MAC team and now get a trip to Orlando and Disney World.
FORECAST: MICHIGAN ST (+) 31 Boston College 30 RATING: 2★
BOSTON COLLEGE (10-3) MICHIGAN ST (7-5)
CHAMPS SPORTS BOWL
This will be the 6th meeting and Boston College holds a 3-1-1 SU & 1-1 ATS record. This is BC?s 9th
consecutive bowl game winning 7 in a row SU (6-1 ATS). BC played in the then-Carquest Bowl in ?94 &
defeated Virginia 31-13. Michigan St returns to the post season for the first time S/?03. They are 7-10 SU
(5-8 ATS) all-time in bowls and this is their first trip to this bowl. Dantonio is 1-0 SU & ATS in the bowls as
a HC with a 32-14 win over Marshall in the ?04 Ft Worth Bowl. This is Jagodzinski?s first year as a HC &
first bowl game. The Eagles have won 10 gms in B2B years for the 1st time in BC history. These 2 have
faced 2 common opp?s TY (BG & ND) and the Eagles outscored those opp?s 41-19 while the Spartans had
a 30-16 edge. BC has faced 7 bowl caliber teams (Virginia Tech twice) and outscored those opp?s 27-24
and outgained them 436-358. MSU had the tougher overall sked facing 9 bowl caliber teams outscoring
them 34-31 and outgaining them 427-388. MSU has 15,000 alums who live in Florida and should be
well represented as they finished the year winning their last 2 to earn this bid. BC fans are known as
poor travellers. The Eagles are 4-11 ATS as an AF (0-2 TY) while MSU was 3-0 ATS as an AD TY. The
Eagles were in the ACC Championship game on Dec 1 while MSU has not played since Nov 17th. BC
has 8 seniors and 14 upperclassmen starters while MSU has 10 seniors and 17 upperclassmen.
Even though BC finished #2 in the ACC and #14 overall they were still passed up by the Chick-fil-A
and Gator Bowls. This season BC had a lot of ?firsts? beginning with a first year coach, 8-0 record for
the first time since 1942, beat Miami for the first time since 1984 and won their division & played in the
ACC Championship game for the first time. They can send the seniors out with just 12 losses in their 4
years, the winningest class ever. BC is led by the ACC POY & Unitas Award winner QB Matt Ryan (#3
NCAA total pass yds), who broke Doug Flutie?s BC season record for TD passes. RB Callender is not
only the top rusher but leads the teams in rec?s. The OL avg?s 6?6? 292 with 2 senior starters. BC has only
allowed 19 sks TY (3.1%) but also only avg?d 105 ypg rush (3.6). BC is led by the nation?s #1 rushing D
which allowed only 68.2 ypg (2.2). The DL avg 6?3? 274 with just 1 senior starter and the defense posted
34 sacks. Herzlich & Dunbar (hampered by sprained ankle) are the top 2 LB?s with a combined 16.5 tfl.
BC is #24 in scoring D, however MSU scored 83 pts in the last 2 gms (Purdue & Penn St). The Eagles
have our #63 pass eff D (#33 NCAA) allowing 261 ypg (60%) with a 19-21 ratio. The secondary is led
by Thorpe finalist FS Silva. BC has our #50 sp tms. The loss of LS Jack Geiser (knee) became costly in
the ACC title game when his backup was slow on a couple of snaps and 2 kicks were blocked.
The 3rd time may finally be the charm as Mark Dantonio is the third MSU HC hired since Nick
Saban left. Dantonio brought the Spartans some much needed toughness and discipline and scrapped
the team?s spread to go with a power running game. Luckily Dantonio had the horses to do it as speedy
Ringer and bruising Caulcrick combined for 2,159 yds and 27 TD?s. QB Hoyer steadily built confidence
in his first year as a starter and finished #2 in the B10 in pass eff. WR Thomas went from a little used JC
transfer to the team?s go-to receiver. TE Davis played both ways and finally lived up to his vast potential.
The huge OL (6?6? 310 avg) started 5 upperclassmen and paved the way for 4.4 ypc (4.0 in ?06) although
they did allow 30 sks (8.4%). MSU is one of 9 NCAA teams to avg 200 ypg both rushing & passing and is
#17 in our off rankings. The Spartans have struggled for years to develop a pass rush but that changed
under ex-DC Dantonio as MSU finished #12 in the NCAA with 37 sks. The DL was anchored by ?The
Sack Master? DE Saint-Dic who had a league record 8 FF. True frosh LB Jones led the team in tackles
in an impressive debut. The secondary was a weak spot with preseason All Conf FS Wiley benched at
times and MSU playing true frosh and ex-WR?s at CB. MSU finished #79 in pass eff D and #50 in our
overall defensive rankings. MSU finished #83 in ST?s with KR Thomas (28.1) the lone standout.
The line may look surprising with a 10-3 BC team only favored by a FG vs a 7-5 Mich St squad.
BC did drop the ACC title game and throughout this entire season they felt they were heading to a BCS
bowl. This team lived on TO?s but only had 3 int in the L/6gm of the season and are now without top
sackman DL Albright. Michigan St won their L2 both as underdogs and all 5 of MSU?s losses were by
7 pts or less with 2 coming in OT. MSU?s emotions are also the polar opposite of BC?s as they thought
they were headed to Detroit to play a MAC team and now get a trip to Orlando and Disney World.
FORECAST: MICHIGAN ST (+) 31 Boston College 30 RATING: 2★
NORTHCOAST POWERSWEEPS:
TCU (7-5) HOUSTON (8-4)
TEXAS BOWL
This is the 2nd Texas Bowl and the 25th meeting between SWC/CUSA foes who last met in ?04. UH has
lost L/7 (1-6 ATS) in the series. This is TCU?s 2nd trip in 3 years (former Houston Bowl) and their 9th bowl
trip in 10 years. This is the Cougars 18th bowl (7-9-1 all-time) but they have not won a bowl game S/?80. HC
Briles took the Cougars to 4 bowls in the L5Y but left for the Baylor job and DB cch Chris Thurmond will be
the interim coach as new HC Sumlin will remain with Oklahoma for the bowl. He is considering hiring other
asst?s to help coach in this one as both co-OC?s Montgomery and Clements joined Briles? staff. TCU clinched
a bowl bid battling back from a 17-0 deficit vs SDSt in their finale, turning out the 3rd largest offensive output
in school history. Houston was looking to repeat as CUSA Champs but got hammered by Tulsa 56-7. LY the
Cougs lost the Liberty Bowl 44-36 (+5) to S Carolina. TCU is 3-3 SU, 3-2-1 ATS under HC Gary Patterson in
the post season. The Cougs faced 4 bowl caliber teams TY going 0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS, outgaining them 440-416
but being outscored 43-23 with 3 of those gms being their lowest pt ttls of the yr. TCU took on 5 bowl caliber
opps and went 2-3 ATS outscoring foes 21.8-21.6 and outgaining them 344-304. UH went 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS
in bowls under Briles (all as dogs), but this is just a few miles from campus. The Cougs are 5-3 ATS as an AD
(1-2 TY) and 10-5 ATS on grass & have played at Reliant Stadium twice, a 10-7 loss to Rice in ?04 (-4) and a
38-24 loss to Oregon (+7?) in ?05. TCU was 0-3 TY as an AF and is just 10-18-1. They are however, 19-12-1
ATS on grass the L/4Y and 10-7-1 the L/2Y as a fav of a FG or more. The Frogs have 16 upperclassmen (9
Sr?s) in the starting lineup. Houston has 9 seniors among their 19 upperclassmen starters.
TCU was the media darling before the ssn, having the Preseason Off and Def POY?s. Unfortunately, DL
Blake faced medical probs and never played to his potential (missed parts or all of 5 gms). The Off POY Brown
was inj?d and DNP in 2 of the 1st 3. He returned vs SMU but his production fell as he was bothered by a knee
inj and coaches made the decision to put the ball in RB Turner?s hands. Turner also missed parts of 6 gms but
over the L/4 avg?d 109 ypg rush (5.2) inc a career high 226 yd vs SDSt. Brown broke his ankle vs UNLV and will
not be available. After the AF loss, TCU decided to go with the QB who was not turning the ball over. Both QB?s
Marcus Jackson and Andy Dalton saw PT, and Patterson was true to his word, as each was pulled after a TO.
The OL avg 6?5? 296 with just 1 Sr and has all?d 21 sks (5.1%) and paved the way for 169 ypg (3.8). Overall they
finished with our #57 rated off. Hiding in the shadows of Blake for the L/3Y was DL Ortiz (3x 1st Tm MWC), and
he stepped up ranking #28 in the NCAA with 15.5 tfl while leading our #16 def. The D all?d just 109 ypg rush
(3.0) and tallied 36 sks. David Roach leads our #8 pass eff D that allows 211 ypg (53%) with a 12-16 ratio. TCU
has our #1 ranked ST?s unit led by PK Chris Manfredini (tied #13 in NCAA in FG?s) and P Derek Wash (#13 net).
PR Brian Bonner ranks #18 in the NCAA in PR and the Frogs give up 17.4 ypr on KR and 5.8 ypr on PR.
The Cougars have avg?d more than 438 ypg in 4 of the L/5Y. They are one of the most balanced teams
in the NCAA avg 240 ypg on the ground and 273 thru the air. After losing QB Kevin Kolb to the NFL, Briles
instituted a 2 QB system with rFr Keenum and soph Joseph. Keenum saw a majority of the action down
the stretch and ranks #16 in NCAA in pass eff. WR Avery ranks #4 in the NCAA in ypg rec and has legit
4.2 spd. RB Anthony ?Quick Six? Alridge is another legit 4.2 guy, finished #13 in NCAA in all-purp yds. The
Cougs OL avg 6?3? 291 led by RT Akeroyd and RG Bloesch and have 2 Sr?s on the front line. The OL opened
up holes for 240 ypg rush good for #10 in NCAA and the 5.1 ypc are the most S/?99 but they all?d 29 sks
(7.3%). The DL avg just 6?3? 276 led by CUSA sack leader Hunt and the Houston D usually wins the 4Q
allowing just 54 pts on the yr. The LB corps is led by the duo of Allen & Lubojasky who help plug holes as
Houston allowed 3.9 ypc rush which is its lowest S/?02. The secondary is led by SS Schwartz who missed
LY due to inj but has bounced back and leads the team in tkls. SS Kenneth Fontenette has a tm leading 4
int as the Cougs are ranked #47 in our pass eff D all?g 224 ypg (51%) with a 28-13 ratio. Overall the Cougs
have our #43 offense, #78 def and #84 ST?s with KR Avery #16 in the NCAA.
Houston was thinking CUSA championship but they were mauled vs Tulsa 56-7 and are now dealing with
the mass exodus of their coaching staff to Baylor. TCU recovered after losing both the pressn off & def POY?s
for a period of time and did win 3 of their L/4 with the loss being a cover at bowl bound BYU. This game is a
classic matchup of off vs def and in LY?s bowl TCU held N Ill to just 60 yards of TOTAL off. The Horned Frogs will
battle for next season while the Cougars are playing for interim coaches and haven?t won a bowl since 1980.
FORECAST: TCU 35 Houston 24 RATING: 2★
TCU (7-5) HOUSTON (8-4)
TEXAS BOWL
This is the 2nd Texas Bowl and the 25th meeting between SWC/CUSA foes who last met in ?04. UH has
lost L/7 (1-6 ATS) in the series. This is TCU?s 2nd trip in 3 years (former Houston Bowl) and their 9th bowl
trip in 10 years. This is the Cougars 18th bowl (7-9-1 all-time) but they have not won a bowl game S/?80. HC
Briles took the Cougars to 4 bowls in the L5Y but left for the Baylor job and DB cch Chris Thurmond will be
the interim coach as new HC Sumlin will remain with Oklahoma for the bowl. He is considering hiring other
asst?s to help coach in this one as both co-OC?s Montgomery and Clements joined Briles? staff. TCU clinched
a bowl bid battling back from a 17-0 deficit vs SDSt in their finale, turning out the 3rd largest offensive output
in school history. Houston was looking to repeat as CUSA Champs but got hammered by Tulsa 56-7. LY the
Cougs lost the Liberty Bowl 44-36 (+5) to S Carolina. TCU is 3-3 SU, 3-2-1 ATS under HC Gary Patterson in
the post season. The Cougs faced 4 bowl caliber teams TY going 0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS, outgaining them 440-416
but being outscored 43-23 with 3 of those gms being their lowest pt ttls of the yr. TCU took on 5 bowl caliber
opps and went 2-3 ATS outscoring foes 21.8-21.6 and outgaining them 344-304. UH went 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS
in bowls under Briles (all as dogs), but this is just a few miles from campus. The Cougs are 5-3 ATS as an AD
(1-2 TY) and 10-5 ATS on grass & have played at Reliant Stadium twice, a 10-7 loss to Rice in ?04 (-4) and a
38-24 loss to Oregon (+7?) in ?05. TCU was 0-3 TY as an AF and is just 10-18-1. They are however, 19-12-1
ATS on grass the L/4Y and 10-7-1 the L/2Y as a fav of a FG or more. The Frogs have 16 upperclassmen (9
Sr?s) in the starting lineup. Houston has 9 seniors among their 19 upperclassmen starters.
TCU was the media darling before the ssn, having the Preseason Off and Def POY?s. Unfortunately, DL
Blake faced medical probs and never played to his potential (missed parts or all of 5 gms). The Off POY Brown
was inj?d and DNP in 2 of the 1st 3. He returned vs SMU but his production fell as he was bothered by a knee
inj and coaches made the decision to put the ball in RB Turner?s hands. Turner also missed parts of 6 gms but
over the L/4 avg?d 109 ypg rush (5.2) inc a career high 226 yd vs SDSt. Brown broke his ankle vs UNLV and will
not be available. After the AF loss, TCU decided to go with the QB who was not turning the ball over. Both QB?s
Marcus Jackson and Andy Dalton saw PT, and Patterson was true to his word, as each was pulled after a TO.
The OL avg 6?5? 296 with just 1 Sr and has all?d 21 sks (5.1%) and paved the way for 169 ypg (3.8). Overall they
finished with our #57 rated off. Hiding in the shadows of Blake for the L/3Y was DL Ortiz (3x 1st Tm MWC), and
he stepped up ranking #28 in the NCAA with 15.5 tfl while leading our #16 def. The D all?d just 109 ypg rush
(3.0) and tallied 36 sks. David Roach leads our #8 pass eff D that allows 211 ypg (53%) with a 12-16 ratio. TCU
has our #1 ranked ST?s unit led by PK Chris Manfredini (tied #13 in NCAA in FG?s) and P Derek Wash (#13 net).
PR Brian Bonner ranks #18 in the NCAA in PR and the Frogs give up 17.4 ypr on KR and 5.8 ypr on PR.
The Cougars have avg?d more than 438 ypg in 4 of the L/5Y. They are one of the most balanced teams
in the NCAA avg 240 ypg on the ground and 273 thru the air. After losing QB Kevin Kolb to the NFL, Briles
instituted a 2 QB system with rFr Keenum and soph Joseph. Keenum saw a majority of the action down
the stretch and ranks #16 in NCAA in pass eff. WR Avery ranks #4 in the NCAA in ypg rec and has legit
4.2 spd. RB Anthony ?Quick Six? Alridge is another legit 4.2 guy, finished #13 in NCAA in all-purp yds. The
Cougs OL avg 6?3? 291 led by RT Akeroyd and RG Bloesch and have 2 Sr?s on the front line. The OL opened
up holes for 240 ypg rush good for #10 in NCAA and the 5.1 ypc are the most S/?99 but they all?d 29 sks
(7.3%). The DL avg just 6?3? 276 led by CUSA sack leader Hunt and the Houston D usually wins the 4Q
allowing just 54 pts on the yr. The LB corps is led by the duo of Allen & Lubojasky who help plug holes as
Houston allowed 3.9 ypc rush which is its lowest S/?02. The secondary is led by SS Schwartz who missed
LY due to inj but has bounced back and leads the team in tkls. SS Kenneth Fontenette has a tm leading 4
int as the Cougs are ranked #47 in our pass eff D all?g 224 ypg (51%) with a 28-13 ratio. Overall the Cougs
have our #43 offense, #78 def and #84 ST?s with KR Avery #16 in the NCAA.
Houston was thinking CUSA championship but they were mauled vs Tulsa 56-7 and are now dealing with
the mass exodus of their coaching staff to Baylor. TCU recovered after losing both the pressn off & def POY?s
for a period of time and did win 3 of their L/4 with the loss being a cover at bowl bound BYU. This game is a
classic matchup of off vs def and in LY?s bowl TCU held N Ill to just 60 yards of TOTAL off. The Horned Frogs will
battle for next season while the Cougars are playing for interim coaches and haven?t won a bowl since 1980.
FORECAST: TCU 35 Houston 24 RATING: 2★
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NORTHCOAST POWERSWEEPS:
OREGON ST (8-4) MARYLAND (6-6)
EMERALD BOWL
This is the 1st meeting and only the 4th time MD has played a P10 tm in school history with only one in
a bowl (Aloha Bowl vs Wash ?82). This will be MD?s 1st bowl in the state of California but they do have 5,000
alumni between LA & San Fran. This will be MD?s 5th bowl game in 7 yrs and their 22nd bowl appearance
(9-10-2). The Terps have won their L/3 bowl gms, outscoring those opp?s 95-17. Friedgen is 3-1 SU & ATS in
bowl gms which is the most wins by any MD coach. LY MD defeated Purdue 24-7 (+1) in the Champ Sports
Bowl in a game the Terps had a 429-285 yd edge. The Terps have faced 8 bowl caliber tms and were just
3-5 SU & ATS, being outscored 27-24. MD is 42-33 ATS on grass under Friedgen. OSU played the tougher
schedule TY (#11-44). After winning 7 of their final 8 LY to earn a Sun Bowl bid (39-38 win over Mizzou),
the Beavers continued their 2H surge again TY winning 6 of their L/7 (6-1 ATS) to earn their 7th bowl in 9
seasons. OSU has won their last 3 post season trips (2-1 ATS). The Beavers faced 7 bowl caliber teams
and were 3-4 SU & ATS being outscored by an avg of 30-21. OSU has 13 senior starters incl 8 on def giving
them the experience edge as the Terps have 8 senior starters with just 3 on the offensive side of the ball.
The Terps outscored their opp?s 25-22 but were outgained 356-351. The Terps? offense (#53 ranking),
which has been decimated by injuries (only 3 players have started all 12 gms), avg?d 424 ypg their final
3 games. QB Turner has been solid since stepping in for Steffy who was inj?d vs Rutgers. RB?s Lattimore
(#1 ACC scoring TDs) and Ball became just the 2nd duo in MD history to each post 10+ rush TDs in the
same season. WR Heyward-Bey, a frosh AA in ?06, leads the Terps in rec?s. OG?s Crummey and Thomas
were out with fractured fibulas, while LT Burley has missed quite a bit of time w/an ankle inj. Crummey
did return for the season finale. MD all?d 38 sks TY (12%, #107 in NCAA). The Terps defense has our #30
ranking. The DL avg 6?4? 293 with 2 Sr starters but the defense only has 23 sk, while all?g 137 rush ypg
(3.9). LB Henderson led the team in tkl in all but 2 gms despite being hampered by inj the final 7 wks. MD
is +7 in TO?s. They are ranked #70 in our pass eff D all?g 219 (60%) with a 13-12 ratio. MD had to replace
their starting P, K and top KR TY and their only returning specialist, PR Oquendo, was lost prior to the BC
game (knee inj) but they do have the #2 KR def in the NCAA. MD finished with our #48 ST unit.
After heavy competition at the QB position during fall camp, HC Riley decided to go with a QB
rotation for OSU?s first 2 gms of the ssn. QB Canfield became the full-time starter in wk 3 but struggled
with accuracy issues early throwing a nation leading 13 int through the AZ gm. He then suffered a shldr
inj 3 gms later vs USC allowing bkup Moevao to assume starting duties. Moevao was able to guide
OSU to 3 straight wins (3-0 ATS) to end the year and may have earned the starting job for this one
(Canfield possibly available). RB Bernard became the #2 all-time rusher in school history after a 3rd
consec 1,000+ yd ssn and should return for the bowl after missing the Civil War with a knee inj. The
WR position took a big blow when standout Stroughter (74 rec, 17.5 in ?06) took a Med RS forcing true
frosh WR?s Rodgers and Catchings to accept bigger roles behind starters Brown & Powers. The OL
avg 6?3? 309 and paved the way for 167 ypg rush (4.1) led by C DeVan & RG Schuening (49 consec
starts). OSU allowed 31 sks TY (7.5%) & finished with our #49 overall offense. The DL avg 6?2? 272
with 4 Sr starters. OSU uses a heavy rotation on the line keeping players fresh as they all?d 75 ypg
(2.1) on the ground finishing #2 in the nation. The LB spot also consists of 3 senior starters with team
captain Doggett leading the way on a tm that finished with the #6 overall def. The secondary finished
#10 in pass eff D allowing 238 ypg (53%) with an 18-20 ratio. Former Groza winner Serna had another
fine year and after LY?s starting P quit the tm just prior to the ssn, Serna took on double duty for the
first time since HS. OSU finished with our #86 ST unit.
Maryland suffered as much attrition as any team in the country and it showed as they dropped 3 of
their L/5 games. Five weeks of healing will have this team in the best shape they?ve been in all season.
OSU had to adjust to losing their top WR as well as finishing the year with their backup QB. Maryland
is the better offensive team while OSU has a shutdown defense. We side with Friedgen?s offense to be
able to dissect the Beavers? defense. The Fridge has won his L/3 bowls by an avg of 32-6 and should
get enough out of his defense that is facing a QB unit with a 10-20 ratio.
FORECAST: MARYLAND (+) 23 Oregon State 20 RATING: 3★
NORTHCOAST POWERSWEEPS:
OREGON ST (8-4) MARYLAND (6-6)
EMERALD BOWL
This is the 1st meeting and only the 4th time MD has played a P10 tm in school history with only one in
a bowl (Aloha Bowl vs Wash ?82). This will be MD?s 1st bowl in the state of California but they do have 5,000
alumni between LA & San Fran. This will be MD?s 5th bowl game in 7 yrs and their 22nd bowl appearance
(9-10-2). The Terps have won their L/3 bowl gms, outscoring those opp?s 95-17. Friedgen is 3-1 SU & ATS in
bowl gms which is the most wins by any MD coach. LY MD defeated Purdue 24-7 (+1) in the Champ Sports
Bowl in a game the Terps had a 429-285 yd edge. The Terps have faced 8 bowl caliber tms and were just
3-5 SU & ATS, being outscored 27-24. MD is 42-33 ATS on grass under Friedgen. OSU played the tougher
schedule TY (#11-44). After winning 7 of their final 8 LY to earn a Sun Bowl bid (39-38 win over Mizzou),
the Beavers continued their 2H surge again TY winning 6 of their L/7 (6-1 ATS) to earn their 7th bowl in 9
seasons. OSU has won their last 3 post season trips (2-1 ATS). The Beavers faced 7 bowl caliber teams
and were 3-4 SU & ATS being outscored by an avg of 30-21. OSU has 13 senior starters incl 8 on def giving
them the experience edge as the Terps have 8 senior starters with just 3 on the offensive side of the ball.
The Terps outscored their opp?s 25-22 but were outgained 356-351. The Terps? offense (#53 ranking),
which has been decimated by injuries (only 3 players have started all 12 gms), avg?d 424 ypg their final
3 games. QB Turner has been solid since stepping in for Steffy who was inj?d vs Rutgers. RB?s Lattimore
(#1 ACC scoring TDs) and Ball became just the 2nd duo in MD history to each post 10+ rush TDs in the
same season. WR Heyward-Bey, a frosh AA in ?06, leads the Terps in rec?s. OG?s Crummey and Thomas
were out with fractured fibulas, while LT Burley has missed quite a bit of time w/an ankle inj. Crummey
did return for the season finale. MD all?d 38 sks TY (12%, #107 in NCAA). The Terps defense has our #30
ranking. The DL avg 6?4? 293 with 2 Sr starters but the defense only has 23 sk, while all?g 137 rush ypg
(3.9). LB Henderson led the team in tkl in all but 2 gms despite being hampered by inj the final 7 wks. MD
is +7 in TO?s. They are ranked #70 in our pass eff D all?g 219 (60%) with a 13-12 ratio. MD had to replace
their starting P, K and top KR TY and their only returning specialist, PR Oquendo, was lost prior to the BC
game (knee inj) but they do have the #2 KR def in the NCAA. MD finished with our #48 ST unit.
After heavy competition at the QB position during fall camp, HC Riley decided to go with a QB
rotation for OSU?s first 2 gms of the ssn. QB Canfield became the full-time starter in wk 3 but struggled
with accuracy issues early throwing a nation leading 13 int through the AZ gm. He then suffered a shldr
inj 3 gms later vs USC allowing bkup Moevao to assume starting duties. Moevao was able to guide
OSU to 3 straight wins (3-0 ATS) to end the year and may have earned the starting job for this one
(Canfield possibly available). RB Bernard became the #2 all-time rusher in school history after a 3rd
consec 1,000+ yd ssn and should return for the bowl after missing the Civil War with a knee inj. The
WR position took a big blow when standout Stroughter (74 rec, 17.5 in ?06) took a Med RS forcing true
frosh WR?s Rodgers and Catchings to accept bigger roles behind starters Brown & Powers. The OL
avg 6?3? 309 and paved the way for 167 ypg rush (4.1) led by C DeVan & RG Schuening (49 consec
starts). OSU allowed 31 sks TY (7.5%) & finished with our #49 overall offense. The DL avg 6?2? 272
with 4 Sr starters. OSU uses a heavy rotation on the line keeping players fresh as they all?d 75 ypg
(2.1) on the ground finishing #2 in the nation. The LB spot also consists of 3 senior starters with team
captain Doggett leading the way on a tm that finished with the #6 overall def. The secondary finished
#10 in pass eff D allowing 238 ypg (53%) with an 18-20 ratio. Former Groza winner Serna had another
fine year and after LY?s starting P quit the tm just prior to the ssn, Serna took on double duty for the
first time since HS. OSU finished with our #86 ST unit.
Maryland suffered as much attrition as any team in the country and it showed as they dropped 3 of
their L/5 games. Five weeks of healing will have this team in the best shape they?ve been in all season.
OSU had to adjust to losing their top WR as well as finishing the year with their backup QB. Maryland
is the better offensive team while OSU has a shutdown defense. We side with Friedgen?s offense to be
able to dissect the Beavers? defense. The Fridge has won his L/3 bowls by an avg of 32-6 and should
get enough out of his defense that is facing a QB unit with a 10-20 ratio.
FORECAST: MARYLAND (+) 23 Oregon State 20 RATING: 3★
These teams met in 2006, a 24-13 WF win (+6?) and Conn upset Wake on the road in ?03, 51-17 as a
9 pt dog. Conn is 2-5 ATS the L/7 vs teams from the ACC with 2 straight covers. This is the Huskies? 2nd
bowl ever after they defeated Toledo in the ?04 Motor City 39-10 (+3?). The Huskies went from 4-8 LY to
9-3 tying for the most regular ssn wins in the program?s 109 year history, its 1st ever national ranking and
won a share of BE Title. A soft non-conf schedule, 2 blown calls and favorable home field weather were
contributing factors. Conn has played 6 bowl caliber teams with only 1 outside of their conf (UVA). They
were dogs in 5 and went 3-3 SU & 4-2 ATS despite being outscored 27-20 & outgained 441-318 benefitting
from their +13 TO margin. WF also faced 6 bowl caliber teams going 3-3 SU & ATS being outscored
28-26 & outgained 366-362. Conn was 2-2 as an AD TY but is 4-11 since 2004. Conn fans travelled well
their last bowl (10,000+) & sold out TY?s allotment of 12,500 tickets. WF should have the crowd edge with
17,500+ tix sold and the bowl is just over an hour away. The Huskies have 4 senior starters among 13
upperclassmen while WF has 16 upperclassmen starters incl 9 seniors. These 2 played 2 common opp?s
TY (Duke & UVA) and WF outscored them 29-27 but was outgained 347-326 while UC outscored them
31-16 and outgained them 371-251, however both teams lost to UVA 17-16. This will be WF?s 8th bowl
appearance but marks the first time WF has been to bowl games in consecutive years. The Deacons are
4-3 SU all-time in bowl games (3-3 ATS) incl their Orange Bowl loss LY. This is Grobe?s 7th year as HC
and his 3rd bowl appearance (1-1 SU & ATS). WF is just 4-7 ATS as an AF and 5-4 ATS on grass since
installing turf LY (1-3 TY). Conn plays on grass & was 2-9 as an AD from ?04-?06 but went 2-2 TY.
Conn is the most recent surprise out of the BE or this year?s Rutgers of 2006. The Huskies offense has
our #71 ranking, avg 358 ypg & 28 ppg. Edsall began the season returning 8 starters on offense but 6 were
sophs and a 1st year JUCO QB. Lorenzen transferred from Palomar CC where he was a JCAA. Last year?s
QB DJ Hernandez switched to WR. Lorenzen didn?t put up the flashiest numbers but manages the offense
very well. RB Brown started the first 6 gms but was hampered by injury & platooned the rest of the year with
Dixon. The Huskies got better WR play TY from Hernandez (2 QB?s on field), Kanuch & NFL prototype Jeffers.
The OL avg 6?3? 301 & has paved the way for 165 ypg rush (3.9) but all?d 28 sks (8.5%). UC?s defense has
our #51 ranking all?g 19 ppg, 346 ypg with 28 sacks. The DL avg 6?2? 267 all?g 159 ypg (4.4) rush. The heart
of the defense is at LB led by Sr Lansanah. The defense is tied for #7 in the NCAA in TO margin & tied for #3
in int with 22. They have our #21 pass eff defense avg 188 ypg (58%) with an 11-22 ratio. The Huskies have
our #58 ST?s ranking. Edsall experimented with Tyvon Branch in 2005 as a KR where he fumbled 3 times vs
WV but the test panned out this year as he finished #21 in NCAA & had 2 TD returns.
After starting the year 0-2, the Deacons won 8 of their L/10. Under Grobe, WF is 19-7 SU over the L/2Y, the
most successful 2 yr stretch in school history. However, after being the ACC Champs LY & making their appearance
in the Orange Bowl, this is a step down. WF has a somewhat conservative passing game, led by QB Skinner, as
they have a high completion rate (72%), but avg just 191 ypg pass. Skinner (missed 2 gms w/shldr inj), however,
threw more than twice as many int TY (13) as he did as a rFr LY (5). They do have a big-play threat at WR in
Moore (#1 rec/gm in ACC) and rFr TB Adams (ACC Rookie POY) really stepped up and finished 3rd in the ACC
rushing. The OL, led by AA C Justice, avg 6?4? 309, allowing 26 sks (7.3%) and 143 ypg (3.3). Overall, WF has
our #70 ranked off. The DL, with 3 Sr starters, avg 6?3? 278 and is allowing 109 ypg rush (3.1) but the D (#38) had
just 27 sks. WF has our #22 pass eff D allowing 242 ypg (54%) with a 20-18 ratio. CB Alphonso Smith (#1 NCAA
in int) and LB Curry have combined 6 IR TD and WF has scored 10 non-off TD?s (#1 NCAA). The Deacons have
the edge on sp tms with our #28 ranking. K Swank is just the 2nd player in WF history with more than 100 PAT.
Conn comes in with the better record but they are still an overrated team. A bad call vs Temple and a
missed fair catch pen vs L?ville would drop their record to 7-5 plus UC was helped by weather in 2 other gms.
WF?s HC Grobe deserves his accolades as the Deacons have 19 wins the L/2 ssns which matched their
regular season record in the previous 4 yrs combined. After rumors of him leaving for Ark, Grobe signed
an extension with WF. While the units are comparable it is a rarity that a tm gets shutout on our checklist
as every category is either even or gives Wake the edge. Conn is second to last among bowl teams having
been outgained by 123 ypg vs bowl caliber opponents. Wake has always been an outstanding underdog
but they?ve now gone 5-1 ATS as a TD or less favorite. FORECAST: WAKE FOREST 27 Connecticut 20 RATING: 2★
This is the 2nd meeting between these two schools with the previous meeting a 35-28 MSU (-4?)
win in ?97. CUSA Champ UCF is off a 44-25 win vs Tulsa avenging their 2005 championship loss. For
CUSA members this is the bowl invite you want because it means you finished #1 in the conference
& after missing out on a bowl game LY the Knights are excited. This is just the 12th season in IA ball
for the Knights and their 2nd ever bowl game as they lost the 2005 Hawaii Bowl to Nevada 49-48
(+2?) in OT on a missed xp. HC George O?Leary was the TY?s CUSA COY (named Bobby Dodd Nat?l
COY in ?00 at GT) and is 2-3 SU & 3-2 ATS in bowl games. SEC COY Croom is coaching his first
bowl and this is MSU?s first bowl trip since ?00. MSU sold out their allotment of 30,000 tickets while
UCF is having trouble selling their 10,000 ticket allotment (7,500 sold as of presstime). UCF is 4-3
SU and 5-2 ATS vs bowl teams TY while MSU is 3-5 SU & 4-4 ATS. UCF is 1-8 ATS as an AF &
MSU is on a 7-2-1 ATS run as an AD with 4 outright upsets the L/2Y. UCF has 6 senior starters &
14 upperclassmen & MSU has 7 seniors & 18 upperclassmen. UCF is just 3-10 ATS vs non-conf
foes under O? Leary. Both teams beat UAB TY with MSU having a greater margin of victory (30-13
to 45-31) but UCF outgained UAB 506-343 while MSU was actually outgained 288-284.
UCF has our #44 rated offense and QB Israel really matured the 2H of the season during their 7
game win streak avg 177 ypg (67%) with a 10-4 ratio showing great poise. RB Smith had a Heisman-like
season leading the NCAA in both rushing and TD?s. Smith exploded during a 7 game streak breaking
200 yds 3x?s including a career high 320 vs UAB all as a junior (likely to test the NFL waters). Smith
who broke Marcus Allen?s single ssn rush attempt record is now just 181 yds from breaking Barry
Sanders? single season rush record of 2,628 yds and has avg 122 yds in the 1H of games. The OL
with 2 senior starters avg 6?4? 304 opening holes for 243 ypg (5.1), both school records, and allowed
17 sacks (5.3%). With all the talk of Smith the D seems to have been forgotten but after all?g 116
points (58 ppg) to EC and USF they all?d just 149 points (21.3) in the L/7. The DL is led by 2 seniors
and avg 6?3? 288 and leads CUSA in rush ypg all?d at 131 (3.7) and the D tallied 38 sks. The LB corps
took a hit in the offseason when they lost WLB Richards to inj and in the CUSA Champ game lost #4
tklr Hogue to a broken hand so they will be thin. The secondary is the best in CUSA and ranks #12 in
our pass eff D (248 ypg, 56%, 26-23 ratio) with their 23 int tied for #1 in NCAA. Overall the D ranks
#56. UCF has a huge edge on sp tms (#9-103) with solid PK and return gms.
Croom said his team performed ahead of schedule this year reaching a bowl with a 7-5 record.
Returning starting QB Henig was inj?d in the 3rd gm and 2nd string QB Riddell suffered a torn ACL
in gm 5 which left true frosh Carroll in charge of MSU?s #92 offense. Carroll started out throwing 137
passes without an int, but finished with a 5-6 ratio in the L/3 gms and was replaced for 2 drives by
Henig in the Egg Bowl. RB Dixon was in Croom?s doghouse at various times during the ssn losing
his starting job to FB Ducr? at mid-season but regaining it the following gm after rushing for 152 yds
& 3 TD vs UAB. With the inconsistency at QB, top WR Burks? numbers fell almost by 50% from LY.
MSU?s #40 defense all?d 159 ypg rush (4.2) but gave up over 200 yds rush in 5 gms TY and MSU
finished #34 in our pass D rankings (182 ypg, 54%, 20-15 ratio). FS Pegues is a converted CB who
led the MSU comeback vs Ole Miss with a 75 yd PR TD late 4Q.
Though MSU is excited to be here and will have a huge crowd edge UCF has the better skill players,
a solid D, strong sp tms and would love to knock off just their 2nd SEC tm in school history (1-12 SU,
7-5 ATS). This is only the third time UCF has had more rush yards than pass yards led by All-American
RB Kevin Smith. Miss St will hear about his talents for the next several weeks and will be ready for the
challenge as he is just 181 yards from breaking the all-time rushing record. The Bulldogs have one of
the fastest defenses the Knights have faced and their outside speed can contain Smith. Although MSU
has not been to a bowl since 2000 their tough SEC schedule and crowd edge plus the indignity of being
an underdog against a school which has been in IA ball for only 12 years makes them the play.
FORECAST: MISSISSIPPI ST (+) 27 Ucf 23 RATING: 2★
These traditional powers last met in PSU?s only Alamo Bowl appearance in ?99 when the Lions shutout
the Aggies 24-0. PSU leads the all-time series 2-1. Despite being located just 160 miles from San Antonio,
this is only A&M?s 3rd Alamo appearance (2-1 SU & 1-2 ATS) and the game is a sellout thanks to their
fans. Paterno is 22-10-1 SU & 20-9-1 ATS in bowls while the Aggies? interim HC Darnell is 0-1 SU & ATS.
The loss came to Wash 34-7 in the ?89 Freedom Bowl when he coached Florida after Galen Hall was
fired. Hall is currently PSU?s OC. Both teams are disappointed to be here with A&M in transition between
the end of the Franchione era while new HC Sherman finishes his NFL ssn. Paterno admitted after the
ssn that his team should?ve won 10 gms & that he made some coaching errors. A&M has played 8 bowl
caliber tms (4-4 SU & 3-5 ATS, outscored on avg 31-28). PSU also played 8 bowl eligible tms (4-4 SU &
2-6 ATS, outscoring them on avg 26-22). A&M was 1-4 SU & 2-3 ATS on the road while PSU was 2-3 SU
& 1-4 ATS. Lions were favored in all AG?s & their lone cover was at Temple where 2/3 of the fans were in
blue. A&M was 3-4 ATS as a dog pulling upsets vs Neb & Tex. The Aggies are 5-3 ATS on turf L/2Y while
Lions are 0-5 ATS. The veteran A&M has 13 Sr starters and 21 upperclassmen! PSU has just 3 Sr starters
with 16 upperclassmen. A&M last played on Nov 23 while PSU finished the season 6 days earlier.
After losing 4 games to Top 25 teams in ?06, Penn St was considered a contender for the B10 Title. QB
Morelli actually posted better #?s than Kerry Collins in his 1st year as a starter and much was expected of the
Sr. Morelli posted better overall #?s in ?07 but finished his career failing to throw a TD pass vs either OSU or
Mich. PSU started the year with RB?s Kinlaw and Scott who avg?d 136 ypg. When Scott was susp?d, powerful
rFr Royster stepped up and the new duo avg?d 169 ypg. The Jr trio of WR?s (Williams, Norwood & Butler) are
steady but none are taller than 6?0?. TE Quarless spent the year in the staff?s doghouse. Despite replacing #5
overall NFL DC LT Brown, PSU had a better rushing ypc (4.6 to ?06?s 4.3) and all?d 20 sks (23 in ?06). Overall
PSU is #32 in our offensive rankings. The Lions had to replace 5 starters on D (#13) and the results were
inconsistent. DE Evans showed true star potential but inj?s and susp?s were a problem as DT Odrick (ankle),
DE Hayes (knee), DT Koroma (foot) and DT Baker (susp) all missed time. Koroma should play in the bowl
while Baker is ?. LB?s Connor and Lee were the NCAA?s top duo. The fine front 7 helped the Lions finished
#2 NCAA in sks and #6 in rush D. Three DB starters returned but top cover CB King spent as much time off
the field defending his play than making plays on it. VHT Wallace started the L/2 after Sargeant started the
1st 10 at the other CB spot. After finishing ?06 #16 in pass eff D they finished #74 in ?07.
A&M persevered through a ssn filled with many distractions winning their last game vs rival Texas to
secure a bowl berth. The Aggies at one point during the ssn were 3-0 & ranked #20 in the country until
a complete collapse vs Miami, Fl. They did win their first 2 Big XII gms and stood at 5-1 & alone atop the
South Div & then went into a meltdown going 1-4 in a 5 wk stretch being outscored by 11 ppg & outgained
by 113 ypg. A&M did end the ssn with 4 ranked opponents, but took care of UT and Franchione resigned
shortly after the gm (told players prior). In their 1st 8 gms the Aggies ran wild avg 260 ypg (5.3), but vs
those ranked foes to end the yr were held to just 127 ypg (3.4), which was 89 yds & 1.4 ypc below their
season avg. QB McGee accounts for 62% of the Aggies? offense. A&M has 2 solid RB?s and when Lane
has 15+ carries A&M was a perfect 5-0 (14 or less 2-5). Goodson is a Reggie Bush RB type. A&M is
ranked #98 in the NCAA in passing off, but did surprise Texas with 362 yds (66%) which was a ssn high
& the most passing yds in 33 gms. The OL avg 6?5?? 309 and is senior filled with 4 up-front & all 5 are
returning starters. The DL is led by DE Harrington while the LB corps is the oldest in the country with
Dodge & Tupe. Aggies are ranked #88 in our pass eff def allowing 264 ypg (63%) with a very poor 21-7
ratio (#100 in NCAA). Texas A&M is ranked #38 on offense, #45 on defense & #40 on ST?s.
Texas A&M finished a tumultuous season and lost 4 of 5 games during the Franchione fiasco but
did finish by knocking off Texas for a 2nd straight year. Penn St is also disappointed as they were a B10
frontrunner to start the season. This is a one-sided matchup with a powerful Nittany Lion defense facing
a one dimensional offense. The Lions front seven can dominate the run game of A&M and the Aggies
have had no success when being forced to throw. Penn St HC Paterno is a ?bowl genius? and will have
his team prepared and focused even in this lower tier bowl.
FORECAST: Penn St 30 Texas A&M 16 RATING: 3★
9 pt dog. Conn is 2-5 ATS the L/7 vs teams from the ACC with 2 straight covers. This is the Huskies? 2nd
bowl ever after they defeated Toledo in the ?04 Motor City 39-10 (+3?). The Huskies went from 4-8 LY to
9-3 tying for the most regular ssn wins in the program?s 109 year history, its 1st ever national ranking and
won a share of BE Title. A soft non-conf schedule, 2 blown calls and favorable home field weather were
contributing factors. Conn has played 6 bowl caliber teams with only 1 outside of their conf (UVA). They
were dogs in 5 and went 3-3 SU & 4-2 ATS despite being outscored 27-20 & outgained 441-318 benefitting
from their +13 TO margin. WF also faced 6 bowl caliber teams going 3-3 SU & ATS being outscored
28-26 & outgained 366-362. Conn was 2-2 as an AD TY but is 4-11 since 2004. Conn fans travelled well
their last bowl (10,000+) & sold out TY?s allotment of 12,500 tickets. WF should have the crowd edge with
17,500+ tix sold and the bowl is just over an hour away. The Huskies have 4 senior starters among 13
upperclassmen while WF has 16 upperclassmen starters incl 9 seniors. These 2 played 2 common opp?s
TY (Duke & UVA) and WF outscored them 29-27 but was outgained 347-326 while UC outscored them
31-16 and outgained them 371-251, however both teams lost to UVA 17-16. This will be WF?s 8th bowl
appearance but marks the first time WF has been to bowl games in consecutive years. The Deacons are
4-3 SU all-time in bowl games (3-3 ATS) incl their Orange Bowl loss LY. This is Grobe?s 7th year as HC
and his 3rd bowl appearance (1-1 SU & ATS). WF is just 4-7 ATS as an AF and 5-4 ATS on grass since
installing turf LY (1-3 TY). Conn plays on grass & was 2-9 as an AD from ?04-?06 but went 2-2 TY.
Conn is the most recent surprise out of the BE or this year?s Rutgers of 2006. The Huskies offense has
our #71 ranking, avg 358 ypg & 28 ppg. Edsall began the season returning 8 starters on offense but 6 were
sophs and a 1st year JUCO QB. Lorenzen transferred from Palomar CC where he was a JCAA. Last year?s
QB DJ Hernandez switched to WR. Lorenzen didn?t put up the flashiest numbers but manages the offense
very well. RB Brown started the first 6 gms but was hampered by injury & platooned the rest of the year with
Dixon. The Huskies got better WR play TY from Hernandez (2 QB?s on field), Kanuch & NFL prototype Jeffers.
The OL avg 6?3? 301 & has paved the way for 165 ypg rush (3.9) but all?d 28 sks (8.5%). UC?s defense has
our #51 ranking all?g 19 ppg, 346 ypg with 28 sacks. The DL avg 6?2? 267 all?g 159 ypg (4.4) rush. The heart
of the defense is at LB led by Sr Lansanah. The defense is tied for #7 in the NCAA in TO margin & tied for #3
in int with 22. They have our #21 pass eff defense avg 188 ypg (58%) with an 11-22 ratio. The Huskies have
our #58 ST?s ranking. Edsall experimented with Tyvon Branch in 2005 as a KR where he fumbled 3 times vs
WV but the test panned out this year as he finished #21 in NCAA & had 2 TD returns.
After starting the year 0-2, the Deacons won 8 of their L/10. Under Grobe, WF is 19-7 SU over the L/2Y, the
most successful 2 yr stretch in school history. However, after being the ACC Champs LY & making their appearance
in the Orange Bowl, this is a step down. WF has a somewhat conservative passing game, led by QB Skinner, as
they have a high completion rate (72%), but avg just 191 ypg pass. Skinner (missed 2 gms w/shldr inj), however,
threw more than twice as many int TY (13) as he did as a rFr LY (5). They do have a big-play threat at WR in
Moore (#1 rec/gm in ACC) and rFr TB Adams (ACC Rookie POY) really stepped up and finished 3rd in the ACC
rushing. The OL, led by AA C Justice, avg 6?4? 309, allowing 26 sks (7.3%) and 143 ypg (3.3). Overall, WF has
our #70 ranked off. The DL, with 3 Sr starters, avg 6?3? 278 and is allowing 109 ypg rush (3.1) but the D (#38) had
just 27 sks. WF has our #22 pass eff D allowing 242 ypg (54%) with a 20-18 ratio. CB Alphonso Smith (#1 NCAA
in int) and LB Curry have combined 6 IR TD and WF has scored 10 non-off TD?s (#1 NCAA). The Deacons have
the edge on sp tms with our #28 ranking. K Swank is just the 2nd player in WF history with more than 100 PAT.
Conn comes in with the better record but they are still an overrated team. A bad call vs Temple and a
missed fair catch pen vs L?ville would drop their record to 7-5 plus UC was helped by weather in 2 other gms.
WF?s HC Grobe deserves his accolades as the Deacons have 19 wins the L/2 ssns which matched their
regular season record in the previous 4 yrs combined. After rumors of him leaving for Ark, Grobe signed
an extension with WF. While the units are comparable it is a rarity that a tm gets shutout on our checklist
as every category is either even or gives Wake the edge. Conn is second to last among bowl teams having
been outgained by 123 ypg vs bowl caliber opponents. Wake has always been an outstanding underdog
but they?ve now gone 5-1 ATS as a TD or less favorite. FORECAST: WAKE FOREST 27 Connecticut 20 RATING: 2★
This is the 2nd meeting between these two schools with the previous meeting a 35-28 MSU (-4?)
win in ?97. CUSA Champ UCF is off a 44-25 win vs Tulsa avenging their 2005 championship loss. For
CUSA members this is the bowl invite you want because it means you finished #1 in the conference
& after missing out on a bowl game LY the Knights are excited. This is just the 12th season in IA ball
for the Knights and their 2nd ever bowl game as they lost the 2005 Hawaii Bowl to Nevada 49-48
(+2?) in OT on a missed xp. HC George O?Leary was the TY?s CUSA COY (named Bobby Dodd Nat?l
COY in ?00 at GT) and is 2-3 SU & 3-2 ATS in bowl games. SEC COY Croom is coaching his first
bowl and this is MSU?s first bowl trip since ?00. MSU sold out their allotment of 30,000 tickets while
UCF is having trouble selling their 10,000 ticket allotment (7,500 sold as of presstime). UCF is 4-3
SU and 5-2 ATS vs bowl teams TY while MSU is 3-5 SU & 4-4 ATS. UCF is 1-8 ATS as an AF &
MSU is on a 7-2-1 ATS run as an AD with 4 outright upsets the L/2Y. UCF has 6 senior starters &
14 upperclassmen & MSU has 7 seniors & 18 upperclassmen. UCF is just 3-10 ATS vs non-conf
foes under O? Leary. Both teams beat UAB TY with MSU having a greater margin of victory (30-13
to 45-31) but UCF outgained UAB 506-343 while MSU was actually outgained 288-284.
UCF has our #44 rated offense and QB Israel really matured the 2H of the season during their 7
game win streak avg 177 ypg (67%) with a 10-4 ratio showing great poise. RB Smith had a Heisman-like
season leading the NCAA in both rushing and TD?s. Smith exploded during a 7 game streak breaking
200 yds 3x?s including a career high 320 vs UAB all as a junior (likely to test the NFL waters). Smith
who broke Marcus Allen?s single ssn rush attempt record is now just 181 yds from breaking Barry
Sanders? single season rush record of 2,628 yds and has avg 122 yds in the 1H of games. The OL
with 2 senior starters avg 6?4? 304 opening holes for 243 ypg (5.1), both school records, and allowed
17 sacks (5.3%). With all the talk of Smith the D seems to have been forgotten but after all?g 116
points (58 ppg) to EC and USF they all?d just 149 points (21.3) in the L/7. The DL is led by 2 seniors
and avg 6?3? 288 and leads CUSA in rush ypg all?d at 131 (3.7) and the D tallied 38 sks. The LB corps
took a hit in the offseason when they lost WLB Richards to inj and in the CUSA Champ game lost #4
tklr Hogue to a broken hand so they will be thin. The secondary is the best in CUSA and ranks #12 in
our pass eff D (248 ypg, 56%, 26-23 ratio) with their 23 int tied for #1 in NCAA. Overall the D ranks
#56. UCF has a huge edge on sp tms (#9-103) with solid PK and return gms.
Croom said his team performed ahead of schedule this year reaching a bowl with a 7-5 record.
Returning starting QB Henig was inj?d in the 3rd gm and 2nd string QB Riddell suffered a torn ACL
in gm 5 which left true frosh Carroll in charge of MSU?s #92 offense. Carroll started out throwing 137
passes without an int, but finished with a 5-6 ratio in the L/3 gms and was replaced for 2 drives by
Henig in the Egg Bowl. RB Dixon was in Croom?s doghouse at various times during the ssn losing
his starting job to FB Ducr? at mid-season but regaining it the following gm after rushing for 152 yds
& 3 TD vs UAB. With the inconsistency at QB, top WR Burks? numbers fell almost by 50% from LY.
MSU?s #40 defense all?d 159 ypg rush (4.2) but gave up over 200 yds rush in 5 gms TY and MSU
finished #34 in our pass D rankings (182 ypg, 54%, 20-15 ratio). FS Pegues is a converted CB who
led the MSU comeback vs Ole Miss with a 75 yd PR TD late 4Q.
Though MSU is excited to be here and will have a huge crowd edge UCF has the better skill players,
a solid D, strong sp tms and would love to knock off just their 2nd SEC tm in school history (1-12 SU,
7-5 ATS). This is only the third time UCF has had more rush yards than pass yards led by All-American
RB Kevin Smith. Miss St will hear about his talents for the next several weeks and will be ready for the
challenge as he is just 181 yards from breaking the all-time rushing record. The Bulldogs have one of
the fastest defenses the Knights have faced and their outside speed can contain Smith. Although MSU
has not been to a bowl since 2000 their tough SEC schedule and crowd edge plus the indignity of being
an underdog against a school which has been in IA ball for only 12 years makes them the play.
FORECAST: MISSISSIPPI ST (+) 27 Ucf 23 RATING: 2★
These traditional powers last met in PSU?s only Alamo Bowl appearance in ?99 when the Lions shutout
the Aggies 24-0. PSU leads the all-time series 2-1. Despite being located just 160 miles from San Antonio,
this is only A&M?s 3rd Alamo appearance (2-1 SU & 1-2 ATS) and the game is a sellout thanks to their
fans. Paterno is 22-10-1 SU & 20-9-1 ATS in bowls while the Aggies? interim HC Darnell is 0-1 SU & ATS.
The loss came to Wash 34-7 in the ?89 Freedom Bowl when he coached Florida after Galen Hall was
fired. Hall is currently PSU?s OC. Both teams are disappointed to be here with A&M in transition between
the end of the Franchione era while new HC Sherman finishes his NFL ssn. Paterno admitted after the
ssn that his team should?ve won 10 gms & that he made some coaching errors. A&M has played 8 bowl
caliber tms (4-4 SU & 3-5 ATS, outscored on avg 31-28). PSU also played 8 bowl eligible tms (4-4 SU &
2-6 ATS, outscoring them on avg 26-22). A&M was 1-4 SU & 2-3 ATS on the road while PSU was 2-3 SU
& 1-4 ATS. Lions were favored in all AG?s & their lone cover was at Temple where 2/3 of the fans were in
blue. A&M was 3-4 ATS as a dog pulling upsets vs Neb & Tex. The Aggies are 5-3 ATS on turf L/2Y while
Lions are 0-5 ATS. The veteran A&M has 13 Sr starters and 21 upperclassmen! PSU has just 3 Sr starters
with 16 upperclassmen. A&M last played on Nov 23 while PSU finished the season 6 days earlier.
After losing 4 games to Top 25 teams in ?06, Penn St was considered a contender for the B10 Title. QB
Morelli actually posted better #?s than Kerry Collins in his 1st year as a starter and much was expected of the
Sr. Morelli posted better overall #?s in ?07 but finished his career failing to throw a TD pass vs either OSU or
Mich. PSU started the year with RB?s Kinlaw and Scott who avg?d 136 ypg. When Scott was susp?d, powerful
rFr Royster stepped up and the new duo avg?d 169 ypg. The Jr trio of WR?s (Williams, Norwood & Butler) are
steady but none are taller than 6?0?. TE Quarless spent the year in the staff?s doghouse. Despite replacing #5
overall NFL DC LT Brown, PSU had a better rushing ypc (4.6 to ?06?s 4.3) and all?d 20 sks (23 in ?06). Overall
PSU is #32 in our offensive rankings. The Lions had to replace 5 starters on D (#13) and the results were
inconsistent. DE Evans showed true star potential but inj?s and susp?s were a problem as DT Odrick (ankle),
DE Hayes (knee), DT Koroma (foot) and DT Baker (susp) all missed time. Koroma should play in the bowl
while Baker is ?. LB?s Connor and Lee were the NCAA?s top duo. The fine front 7 helped the Lions finished
#2 NCAA in sks and #6 in rush D. Three DB starters returned but top cover CB King spent as much time off
the field defending his play than making plays on it. VHT Wallace started the L/2 after Sargeant started the
1st 10 at the other CB spot. After finishing ?06 #16 in pass eff D they finished #74 in ?07.
A&M persevered through a ssn filled with many distractions winning their last game vs rival Texas to
secure a bowl berth. The Aggies at one point during the ssn were 3-0 & ranked #20 in the country until
a complete collapse vs Miami, Fl. They did win their first 2 Big XII gms and stood at 5-1 & alone atop the
South Div & then went into a meltdown going 1-4 in a 5 wk stretch being outscored by 11 ppg & outgained
by 113 ypg. A&M did end the ssn with 4 ranked opponents, but took care of UT and Franchione resigned
shortly after the gm (told players prior). In their 1st 8 gms the Aggies ran wild avg 260 ypg (5.3), but vs
those ranked foes to end the yr were held to just 127 ypg (3.4), which was 89 yds & 1.4 ypc below their
season avg. QB McGee accounts for 62% of the Aggies? offense. A&M has 2 solid RB?s and when Lane
has 15+ carries A&M was a perfect 5-0 (14 or less 2-5). Goodson is a Reggie Bush RB type. A&M is
ranked #98 in the NCAA in passing off, but did surprise Texas with 362 yds (66%) which was a ssn high
& the most passing yds in 33 gms. The OL avg 6?5?? 309 and is senior filled with 4 up-front & all 5 are
returning starters. The DL is led by DE Harrington while the LB corps is the oldest in the country with
Dodge & Tupe. Aggies are ranked #88 in our pass eff def allowing 264 ypg (63%) with a very poor 21-7
ratio (#100 in NCAA). Texas A&M is ranked #38 on offense, #45 on defense & #40 on ST?s.
Texas A&M finished a tumultuous season and lost 4 of 5 games during the Franchione fiasco but
did finish by knocking off Texas for a 2nd straight year. Penn St is also disappointed as they were a B10
frontrunner to start the season. This is a one-sided matchup with a powerful Nittany Lion defense facing
a one dimensional offense. The Lions front seven can dominate the run game of A&M and the Aggies
have had no success when being forced to throw. Penn St HC Paterno is a ?bowl genius? and will have
his team prepared and focused even in this lower tier bowl.
FORECAST: Penn St 30 Texas A&M 16 RATING: 3★
This is the only bowl matching two 6-6 tms TY and is the 3rd all-time meeting (1-1) with both prior
tilts in bowls. They last met in the ?91 Blockbuster Bowl and Bama won 30-25 (-2). CU did not make a
bowl LY & is 12-15 all-time. UA is making their NCAA record 55th bowl appearance and their 4th bowl
trip in a row. This is UA?s 3rd trip to the Independence Bowl (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS) and their 2nd trip in a row
to Shreveport. Bama is on a 1-5 ATS run in bowls. Saban went 3-5 SU & ATS in bowls at LSU & Mich St.
This will mark CU?s 1st Independence Bowl berth, but they are on a 7-3 SU & 8-2 ATS run in the post
season. HC Hawkins is 2-2 SU & ATS in bowls (all w/Boise St). CU fans are not known for traveling &
might not be well represented again due to the 1,071 mile trip & the late night Sun start. Bama may also
have trouble selling tickets since they went to this bowl LY and finished the reg ssn with 4 straight losses
including their 6th in a row to rival Aub. CU has faced 6 bowl caliber tms TY & has gone 2-4 SU & ATS
being outscored on avg 29-17 & outgained 346-294. UA faced 9 bowl caliber tms with a 3-6 SU & 1-7-1
ATS record but was only outscored 25-24 and outgained 355-350. Both schools ply?d FSU and both lost
SU & ATS, but CU was held to -27 rush yds (-1.1). CU has 6 senior starters with 15 upperclassmen
(68%) and Bama has 7 seniors with 12 upperclassmen (55%). CU is 4-10 ATS (including bowls) as an
AD & the Tide was 1-2 ATS as a AF TY and finished the ssn on a 1-8-1 ATS run.
Colorado took care of business vs rival Neb to become bowl eligible in their ssn finale & secured this
slot when Fresno beat K-St. They dropped 65 pts on the Huskers (most scored in a single gm S/?95). It
was a tale of 2 ssns as CU stood 4-2 outgaining foes by 76 ypg with a win over then #3 OU (snapped 14
gm losing streak vs ranked tms). Buffs were outscored by 15 ppg & outgained by 97 ypg in a 5 wk period
(1-4) before the ssn final. CU has our #48 off avg 28 ppg & 377 ypg. Buffs returned 9 starters on off from
LY?s 2-10 tm that avg 16.3 ppg (lowest in 22 yrs). HC Hawkins? son Cody earned the starting QB job but
understandably struggled early but had a 8-1 ratio over the L/4 gms. The success of the off relies heavily
on RB Charles. Five of their 6 losses came when Charles failed to reach 100 yds. The OL avg 6?4? 305
paving the way for 150 ypg (3.9) all?g 16 sks. The CU def has our #53 ranking all?g 29 ppg, 389 ypg with
just 19 sks. The DL avg 6?3? 268 all?g 128 rush ypg (4.0). The LB corps was hampered by inj?s early in
the ssn and is missing 50% of the 2 deep. LB Dizon was named Big 12 Def POY with a league leading
12.4 tpg (#2 NCAA). CB Wheatley, who is the leader of the secondary, missed the L/2 gms with an inj
but should be 100% (#2 all-time int leader w/14). CU ranks #24 in our pass eff def rankings all?g 262 ypg
(57%) with a 24-15 ratio vs a very tough slate of opposing QB?s. K Eberhart has a strong leg, hitting 8-12
from 40+ (L/54) but will not have the advantage of the high altitude. CU has our #21 ST?s ranking.
LY Tide alum Mike Shula was fired after a 6-6 reg ssn which resulted in a trip to the Independence
Bowl and Bama brought in Saban for an unheard of salary to save the program from mediocrity. The
Tide proved that Rome wasn?t built in a day and return to Shreveport after taking a nosedive in the 2H
of the ssn including a humiliating home loss to ULM. Tide QB Wilson led the Tide?s #58 offense but was
erratic and wilted under heavy pressure finishing the ssn with a 1-5 ratio in the L/3. RB?s Grant, Coffee,
Upchurch and Johns were all given opportunities, but Grant proved to be the most consistent starting
9 gms. WR Hall finished #2 in the SEC in rec ypg in a strong senior yr. The OL suffered greatly when
2 starters missed 4 gms in the highly publicized textbook scandal and all?d 24 sks (5.5%) with the tm
rushing for 151 ypg (4.0). The defense finished #29 in our overall rankings and #39 in our pass D rankings
all?g opposing QB?s to complete just 54% with a 17-17 ratio. Bama has our #17 ST?s rankings.
Nick Saban has not quite been the savior that the Crimson Tide alumni had hoped for. A 6-6
year with a season ending 4 game losing streak is unacceptable. While Colorado also comes in with
a 6-6 mark their fans are pleased with the progress HC Hawkins has shown. Saban made ?disaster?
remarks after the loss to ULM and no one has more pressure for a feel good win to save face for
recruiting. Bama has the talent edge, the need, the crowd, and the fear of embarrassment.
FORECAST: ALABAMA 30 Colorado 17 RATING: 2★
These two met in ?04 with Cal leading the series 5-2. HC Tedford & Co enter this game much maligned
after losing 6 of L/7 (0-7 ATS) incl an embarrassing loss to Stanford. Cal will be playing a 5th str bowl gm
for the 1st time while AF is making its 1st appearance S/?02. None of AF?s 17 seniors have played in a
bowl, and this was their 1st winning ssn S/?03. Cal has played 6 bowl squads being outscored by a 29-27
and outgained 399-389 going just 2-4 SU & ATS. AF took on 5 bowl tms and went 3-2 ATS & 2-3 SU
being outscored 25-19 and outgained 376-351. During pressn, new AF HC Calhoun told the Cadet Wing
that if his tm went 6-0 at home and went bowling (which they did), he would buy the first 200 tickets. AF
should have a large crowd edge, drawing many military fans. This is MWC COY Calhoun?s (an AF grad)
1st bowl game as a HC but he was the OC at Ohio and WF where he did go to a bowl in ?02. Both Cal
& AF faced CSU this ssn and while both tms were victorious, Cal was actually outgained 458-391 and
they barely held on with a 6 pt win (-14) while the Falcons manhandled CSU outgaining them 437-380
in their 45-21 win (+3). The Bears have 8 senior starters & 20 upperclassmen starters while the Falcons
have 14 seniors and 19 upperclassmen.
The Bears? offense began the ssn on fire avg 39 ppg & 426 ypg on their way to being #2 in the country
after 5 gms. QB Longshore (64%, 7-2 ratio in first 5 gms) appeared to be having an even better ssn than
LY until an ankle inj suffered late in the gm vs UO caused him to miss the heartbreaking loss to OSU.
Following his return the next wk, it was apparent that he was not 100% causing him to struggle for the
remainder of the ssn completing just 57% of his passes with a 9-11 ratio over the L/6. Forsett became
the 5th straight Cal RB to rush for 1,000+ yds practically carrying the off for most of the ssn. The WR
combo of Jackson & Hawkins comb for over 50% of the tm?s rec?s despite both dealing with nagging inj?s
most of the yr. The OL avg 6?5? 303 & is led by AA C Mack who helped Cal rush for 163 ypg (4.8) while
all?g just 11 sks (#5 NCAA, 2.6%). Overall the off finished with our #30 rankings. Despite losing some key
players to graduation the Bears D played surprisingly well earning our #31 overall ranking. The DL avg
6?3? 295 & all?d 152 rush ypg (3.9) while recording just 22 sks as injuries to this position were significant
most of the year. The secondary earned a middle of the pack ranking at #54 in pass eff D all?g 223 ypg
(61%) with a 16-10 ratio. Opposing tms chose to punt away from dangerous DeSean Jackson for most of
the ssn as he returned just 12 punts (1 TD) all ssn long. The Bears finished with our #47 ST ranking.
AF?s #36 off is led by MWC Off POY Hall who was the target of a late ssn grass roots Heisman
campaign. Hall began the ssn as a WR in Calhoun?s modified offensive scheme, but stepped into the RB
role in gm 6 vs UNLV and never looked back (1,257 rush, 6.9 L/6). He needs just 79 yds rush to break
AF?s single-ssn rush rec?d (Beau Morgan, 1996) He is also the leading rec when QB Carney chooses
to pass it (23% of the time) becoming the only player in the NCAA to lead his team in both rushing and
receiving. The OL avg 6?4? 272 with 2 Sr starters and helped pave the way for 299 rush ypg (5.4) which
is #2 in the NCAA in rush offense while all?g 13 sks (6.7%). LB Fowler is the tm?s #1 tklr and leads our
#59 rated D which is all?g just 131 rush ypg (3.3) with 28 sks. DB Thomas follows close behind, heading
up our #62 pass eff D. In their L/3 gms (Army, ND, SDSt) the AF D held each team under 100 yds rush
as those teams avg just 57 ypg (1.7), but it could be hard to hold that enthusiasm as they have not played
since Nov 17th. The Falcons have our #11 ST?s unit. Hall literally does it all for the Falcons as he is the
only player who has returned punts TY and is also the leading KR. PK Harrison helped the season along
as he nailed the game winning 33 yarder vs TCU, which spring-boarded AF through a tough conference
schedule (7-1 ATS in conf play, only loss to BYU).
The service academies perform well in bowls as they are not distracted by the pageantry and stay
focused on their goals. After AF HC Calhoun talked about changing to a pass offense he basically kept
the Falcons? offense the same. California is devastated to be here after being ranked #2 and thinking
about a national championship early TY. They now have lost an unthinkable 6 of 7 and need to win to
keep from a losing season. They are now healthy (QB & top 2 DL) and can refocus. The Bears finished
last season is a disappointing fashion (1-2 SU & 0-5 ATS) and came out and blasted A&M while AF
played only one top #20 team (BYU) and lost that game 31-6.
FORECAST: CALIFORNIA 38 Air Force 27 RATING: 2★
This is the 1st meeting in a matchup that features two former #2 ranked tms. The Bulls have never played
a P10 tm and have 37 days to prepare while UO last played Dec 1st (2OT loss to rival OSU). The Ducks are
4-2 vs BE tms but haven?t faced one S/?65 (Pitt). The Bulls are 22-11 ATS vs non-conf tms S/?01 while UO has
covered 8 of 10 S/?04. This is USF?s 3rd straight bowl appearance as well as their 3rd bowl in school history.
LY in its 10th yr of existence, USF won its 1st bowl 24-7 (-5) over EC. Under HC Bellotti Oregon has gone
4-6 SU (5-5 ATS) in bowl gms losing their L/4 incl a 30 pt loss to BYU LY. This marks UO?s 4th appearance
in the Sun Bowl with their last being a 31-30 (+4) ?03 loss to Minny. In ?07 the Bulls defeated #17 Auburn on
the road & #5 WV at home and achieved their 1st Top 25 ranking in school history. They rose to #2 but after
3 straight losses & a challenge by Leavitt, the offense responded avg 48 ppg in their L/3. Oregon also rose
to #2 before Heisman front-runner Dixon?s knee inj KO?d him for the season in a 34-24 (-10) loss to AZ to
begin a 3 gm SU & ATS losing streak. USF played 7 bowl caliber tms TY going 4-3 SU & ATS outscoring
opp?s 34-21 & outgaining them 409-332. UO has played 8 bowl squads going 5-3 SU & ATS outscoring them
32-23 & outgaining them 411-398. The Bulls are 2-3 ATS TY as an AF while UO is 9-4 as an AD since ?03.
USF has 6 seniors among 16 upperclassmen starters while UO has 8 among their 16.
The Bulls have our #22 ranked offense avg 35.8 ppg & 422 ypg. LY USF found a dual-threat QB they
hadn?t seen since 2002?s Marquel Blackwell. QB Grothe has been a one man offensive machine leading in
passing & rushing. Much like ?06, USF got little production from the backfield platooning 3 RB?s until HT Bama
transfer Ford (PS#46) emerged rushing for 112 ypg (5.0) the L/3. Late ssn inj?s to the WR position gave rFr
Mitchell 22 of his tm leading 37 rec. The OL, avg 6?4? 309, was banged up all ssn giving up 25 sks (6.6%)
but still paved the way for 193 ypg (4.4). The offense should be healthy for the bowl. USF?s defense has our
#23 ranking all?g 20.7 ppg & 327 ypg with 30 sks. The DL which features 2 Sr?s avg 6?2? 275 and has all?d
112 rush ypg (3.2). They are led by BE Def POY DE Selvie who broke the NCAA single ssn tfl record with
31.5. This defense held the #4 rush attack (293 ypg) of WV to 188 yds & held L?ville QB Brohm to a season
low 213 yds & 3 int. They lead the NCAA in TO?s gained with 40!!! AA CB Jenkins skipped the NFL (#3DC)
& teams avoiding him found All-BE Williams on the other side who returned 3 int for TD?s. The Bulls have
our #7 pass eff def all?g 215 ypg (51%) with a 17-23 ratio. USF has our #81 ST?s led by Delbert Alvarado
who had a solid yr despite missing 4 of 7 FG?s vs Auburn which could have given USF a comfortable lead.
Numbers are misleading for UO?s offense as they finished with our #12 offense but inj?s to key players
have decimated the team. QB Dixon earned P10 Off POY honors despite missing the final 2.5 gms as he
was probably the most important player to any tm in the nation. The off avg 41 ppg & 506 ypg in Dixon?s
10 starts but just 16 ppg & 244 ypg without him incl the team?s first shutout S/?85 vs UCLA. After an inj to
bkup QB Leaf & #3 QB Costa, the Ducks will be forced to use rFr QB?s Roper & Kempt (102 ypg, 36%, 2-4
ratio combined). RB Stewart has taken the bulk of the workload (79% of RB att?s) at the RB spot since an
ACL inj to Johnson in their 6th gm. WR Williams & TE Dickson became UO?s only consistent targets after
inj?s to WR?s Paysinger and Colvin (#2 & #3 on depth chart) early in the ssn. The OL avg 6?5? 311 & is led
by C Unger who helped lead the way for 243 ypg rush (5.1) while all?g just 23 sks (6.0% - 6 in the L/2 gms).
The Duck D had a better than expected ssn earning our #27 ranking. The DL led by DE Reed avg 6?3? 284
and the team allowed 137 ypg rush (3.6) with 35 sks. The LB position also battled inj?s losing WLB Tuitele
for most of the ssn (should be available) & MLB Bacon who tore his ACL vs ASU. UO?s secondary features
an abundance of playmakers led by ROV Chung and they finished #15 in pass eff D all?g 250 ypg (53%)
with an 18-16 ratio. The ST unit finished with the #46 ranking featuring a strong 1st yr effort from P Syria.
Both teams were ranked as high as #2 earlier this year and each believed they had a legitimate
chance to play in the BCS Title game. Oregon lost probable Heisman winner QB Dixon and now will go
with rFr Roper. While he struggled replacing Leaf vs UCLA, he had a week of practice to face Oreg St
and has worked with the #1?s the last month. Both defenses have talent that will be playing on Sunday
and by looking at the checklist you?ll see they are very evenly matched. Oregon will try to control the
TOP with Stewart running and Grothe has tossed 8 int the L/4 games.
FORECAST: OREGON (+) 21 South Florida 23 RATING: 2★
tilts in bowls. They last met in the ?91 Blockbuster Bowl and Bama won 30-25 (-2). CU did not make a
bowl LY & is 12-15 all-time. UA is making their NCAA record 55th bowl appearance and their 4th bowl
trip in a row. This is UA?s 3rd trip to the Independence Bowl (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS) and their 2nd trip in a row
to Shreveport. Bama is on a 1-5 ATS run in bowls. Saban went 3-5 SU & ATS in bowls at LSU & Mich St.
This will mark CU?s 1st Independence Bowl berth, but they are on a 7-3 SU & 8-2 ATS run in the post
season. HC Hawkins is 2-2 SU & ATS in bowls (all w/Boise St). CU fans are not known for traveling &
might not be well represented again due to the 1,071 mile trip & the late night Sun start. Bama may also
have trouble selling tickets since they went to this bowl LY and finished the reg ssn with 4 straight losses
including their 6th in a row to rival Aub. CU has faced 6 bowl caliber tms TY & has gone 2-4 SU & ATS
being outscored on avg 29-17 & outgained 346-294. UA faced 9 bowl caliber tms with a 3-6 SU & 1-7-1
ATS record but was only outscored 25-24 and outgained 355-350. Both schools ply?d FSU and both lost
SU & ATS, but CU was held to -27 rush yds (-1.1). CU has 6 senior starters with 15 upperclassmen
(68%) and Bama has 7 seniors with 12 upperclassmen (55%). CU is 4-10 ATS (including bowls) as an
AD & the Tide was 1-2 ATS as a AF TY and finished the ssn on a 1-8-1 ATS run.
Colorado took care of business vs rival Neb to become bowl eligible in their ssn finale & secured this
slot when Fresno beat K-St. They dropped 65 pts on the Huskers (most scored in a single gm S/?95). It
was a tale of 2 ssns as CU stood 4-2 outgaining foes by 76 ypg with a win over then #3 OU (snapped 14
gm losing streak vs ranked tms). Buffs were outscored by 15 ppg & outgained by 97 ypg in a 5 wk period
(1-4) before the ssn final. CU has our #48 off avg 28 ppg & 377 ypg. Buffs returned 9 starters on off from
LY?s 2-10 tm that avg 16.3 ppg (lowest in 22 yrs). HC Hawkins? son Cody earned the starting QB job but
understandably struggled early but had a 8-1 ratio over the L/4 gms. The success of the off relies heavily
on RB Charles. Five of their 6 losses came when Charles failed to reach 100 yds. The OL avg 6?4? 305
paving the way for 150 ypg (3.9) all?g 16 sks. The CU def has our #53 ranking all?g 29 ppg, 389 ypg with
just 19 sks. The DL avg 6?3? 268 all?g 128 rush ypg (4.0). The LB corps was hampered by inj?s early in
the ssn and is missing 50% of the 2 deep. LB Dizon was named Big 12 Def POY with a league leading
12.4 tpg (#2 NCAA). CB Wheatley, who is the leader of the secondary, missed the L/2 gms with an inj
but should be 100% (#2 all-time int leader w/14). CU ranks #24 in our pass eff def rankings all?g 262 ypg
(57%) with a 24-15 ratio vs a very tough slate of opposing QB?s. K Eberhart has a strong leg, hitting 8-12
from 40+ (L/54) but will not have the advantage of the high altitude. CU has our #21 ST?s ranking.
LY Tide alum Mike Shula was fired after a 6-6 reg ssn which resulted in a trip to the Independence
Bowl and Bama brought in Saban for an unheard of salary to save the program from mediocrity. The
Tide proved that Rome wasn?t built in a day and return to Shreveport after taking a nosedive in the 2H
of the ssn including a humiliating home loss to ULM. Tide QB Wilson led the Tide?s #58 offense but was
erratic and wilted under heavy pressure finishing the ssn with a 1-5 ratio in the L/3. RB?s Grant, Coffee,
Upchurch and Johns were all given opportunities, but Grant proved to be the most consistent starting
9 gms. WR Hall finished #2 in the SEC in rec ypg in a strong senior yr. The OL suffered greatly when
2 starters missed 4 gms in the highly publicized textbook scandal and all?d 24 sks (5.5%) with the tm
rushing for 151 ypg (4.0). The defense finished #29 in our overall rankings and #39 in our pass D rankings
all?g opposing QB?s to complete just 54% with a 17-17 ratio. Bama has our #17 ST?s rankings.
Nick Saban has not quite been the savior that the Crimson Tide alumni had hoped for. A 6-6
year with a season ending 4 game losing streak is unacceptable. While Colorado also comes in with
a 6-6 mark their fans are pleased with the progress HC Hawkins has shown. Saban made ?disaster?
remarks after the loss to ULM and no one has more pressure for a feel good win to save face for
recruiting. Bama has the talent edge, the need, the crowd, and the fear of embarrassment.
FORECAST: ALABAMA 30 Colorado 17 RATING: 2★
These two met in ?04 with Cal leading the series 5-2. HC Tedford & Co enter this game much maligned
after losing 6 of L/7 (0-7 ATS) incl an embarrassing loss to Stanford. Cal will be playing a 5th str bowl gm
for the 1st time while AF is making its 1st appearance S/?02. None of AF?s 17 seniors have played in a
bowl, and this was their 1st winning ssn S/?03. Cal has played 6 bowl squads being outscored by a 29-27
and outgained 399-389 going just 2-4 SU & ATS. AF took on 5 bowl tms and went 3-2 ATS & 2-3 SU
being outscored 25-19 and outgained 376-351. During pressn, new AF HC Calhoun told the Cadet Wing
that if his tm went 6-0 at home and went bowling (which they did), he would buy the first 200 tickets. AF
should have a large crowd edge, drawing many military fans. This is MWC COY Calhoun?s (an AF grad)
1st bowl game as a HC but he was the OC at Ohio and WF where he did go to a bowl in ?02. Both Cal
& AF faced CSU this ssn and while both tms were victorious, Cal was actually outgained 458-391 and
they barely held on with a 6 pt win (-14) while the Falcons manhandled CSU outgaining them 437-380
in their 45-21 win (+3). The Bears have 8 senior starters & 20 upperclassmen starters while the Falcons
have 14 seniors and 19 upperclassmen.
The Bears? offense began the ssn on fire avg 39 ppg & 426 ypg on their way to being #2 in the country
after 5 gms. QB Longshore (64%, 7-2 ratio in first 5 gms) appeared to be having an even better ssn than
LY until an ankle inj suffered late in the gm vs UO caused him to miss the heartbreaking loss to OSU.
Following his return the next wk, it was apparent that he was not 100% causing him to struggle for the
remainder of the ssn completing just 57% of his passes with a 9-11 ratio over the L/6. Forsett became
the 5th straight Cal RB to rush for 1,000+ yds practically carrying the off for most of the ssn. The WR
combo of Jackson & Hawkins comb for over 50% of the tm?s rec?s despite both dealing with nagging inj?s
most of the yr. The OL avg 6?5? 303 & is led by AA C Mack who helped Cal rush for 163 ypg (4.8) while
all?g just 11 sks (#5 NCAA, 2.6%). Overall the off finished with our #30 rankings. Despite losing some key
players to graduation the Bears D played surprisingly well earning our #31 overall ranking. The DL avg
6?3? 295 & all?d 152 rush ypg (3.9) while recording just 22 sks as injuries to this position were significant
most of the year. The secondary earned a middle of the pack ranking at #54 in pass eff D all?g 223 ypg
(61%) with a 16-10 ratio. Opposing tms chose to punt away from dangerous DeSean Jackson for most of
the ssn as he returned just 12 punts (1 TD) all ssn long. The Bears finished with our #47 ST ranking.
AF?s #36 off is led by MWC Off POY Hall who was the target of a late ssn grass roots Heisman
campaign. Hall began the ssn as a WR in Calhoun?s modified offensive scheme, but stepped into the RB
role in gm 6 vs UNLV and never looked back (1,257 rush, 6.9 L/6). He needs just 79 yds rush to break
AF?s single-ssn rush rec?d (Beau Morgan, 1996) He is also the leading rec when QB Carney chooses
to pass it (23% of the time) becoming the only player in the NCAA to lead his team in both rushing and
receiving. The OL avg 6?4? 272 with 2 Sr starters and helped pave the way for 299 rush ypg (5.4) which
is #2 in the NCAA in rush offense while all?g 13 sks (6.7%). LB Fowler is the tm?s #1 tklr and leads our
#59 rated D which is all?g just 131 rush ypg (3.3) with 28 sks. DB Thomas follows close behind, heading
up our #62 pass eff D. In their L/3 gms (Army, ND, SDSt) the AF D held each team under 100 yds rush
as those teams avg just 57 ypg (1.7), but it could be hard to hold that enthusiasm as they have not played
since Nov 17th. The Falcons have our #11 ST?s unit. Hall literally does it all for the Falcons as he is the
only player who has returned punts TY and is also the leading KR. PK Harrison helped the season along
as he nailed the game winning 33 yarder vs TCU, which spring-boarded AF through a tough conference
schedule (7-1 ATS in conf play, only loss to BYU).
The service academies perform well in bowls as they are not distracted by the pageantry and stay
focused on their goals. After AF HC Calhoun talked about changing to a pass offense he basically kept
the Falcons? offense the same. California is devastated to be here after being ranked #2 and thinking
about a national championship early TY. They now have lost an unthinkable 6 of 7 and need to win to
keep from a losing season. They are now healthy (QB & top 2 DL) and can refocus. The Bears finished
last season is a disappointing fashion (1-2 SU & 0-5 ATS) and came out and blasted A&M while AF
played only one top #20 team (BYU) and lost that game 31-6.
FORECAST: CALIFORNIA 38 Air Force 27 RATING: 2★
This is the 1st meeting in a matchup that features two former #2 ranked tms. The Bulls have never played
a P10 tm and have 37 days to prepare while UO last played Dec 1st (2OT loss to rival OSU). The Ducks are
4-2 vs BE tms but haven?t faced one S/?65 (Pitt). The Bulls are 22-11 ATS vs non-conf tms S/?01 while UO has
covered 8 of 10 S/?04. This is USF?s 3rd straight bowl appearance as well as their 3rd bowl in school history.
LY in its 10th yr of existence, USF won its 1st bowl 24-7 (-5) over EC. Under HC Bellotti Oregon has gone
4-6 SU (5-5 ATS) in bowl gms losing their L/4 incl a 30 pt loss to BYU LY. This marks UO?s 4th appearance
in the Sun Bowl with their last being a 31-30 (+4) ?03 loss to Minny. In ?07 the Bulls defeated #17 Auburn on
the road & #5 WV at home and achieved their 1st Top 25 ranking in school history. They rose to #2 but after
3 straight losses & a challenge by Leavitt, the offense responded avg 48 ppg in their L/3. Oregon also rose
to #2 before Heisman front-runner Dixon?s knee inj KO?d him for the season in a 34-24 (-10) loss to AZ to
begin a 3 gm SU & ATS losing streak. USF played 7 bowl caliber tms TY going 4-3 SU & ATS outscoring
opp?s 34-21 & outgaining them 409-332. UO has played 8 bowl squads going 5-3 SU & ATS outscoring them
32-23 & outgaining them 411-398. The Bulls are 2-3 ATS TY as an AF while UO is 9-4 as an AD since ?03.
USF has 6 seniors among 16 upperclassmen starters while UO has 8 among their 16.
The Bulls have our #22 ranked offense avg 35.8 ppg & 422 ypg. LY USF found a dual-threat QB they
hadn?t seen since 2002?s Marquel Blackwell. QB Grothe has been a one man offensive machine leading in
passing & rushing. Much like ?06, USF got little production from the backfield platooning 3 RB?s until HT Bama
transfer Ford (PS#46) emerged rushing for 112 ypg (5.0) the L/3. Late ssn inj?s to the WR position gave rFr
Mitchell 22 of his tm leading 37 rec. The OL, avg 6?4? 309, was banged up all ssn giving up 25 sks (6.6%)
but still paved the way for 193 ypg (4.4). The offense should be healthy for the bowl. USF?s defense has our
#23 ranking all?g 20.7 ppg & 327 ypg with 30 sks. The DL which features 2 Sr?s avg 6?2? 275 and has all?d
112 rush ypg (3.2). They are led by BE Def POY DE Selvie who broke the NCAA single ssn tfl record with
31.5. This defense held the #4 rush attack (293 ypg) of WV to 188 yds & held L?ville QB Brohm to a season
low 213 yds & 3 int. They lead the NCAA in TO?s gained with 40!!! AA CB Jenkins skipped the NFL (#3DC)
& teams avoiding him found All-BE Williams on the other side who returned 3 int for TD?s. The Bulls have
our #7 pass eff def all?g 215 ypg (51%) with a 17-23 ratio. USF has our #81 ST?s led by Delbert Alvarado
who had a solid yr despite missing 4 of 7 FG?s vs Auburn which could have given USF a comfortable lead.
Numbers are misleading for UO?s offense as they finished with our #12 offense but inj?s to key players
have decimated the team. QB Dixon earned P10 Off POY honors despite missing the final 2.5 gms as he
was probably the most important player to any tm in the nation. The off avg 41 ppg & 506 ypg in Dixon?s
10 starts but just 16 ppg & 244 ypg without him incl the team?s first shutout S/?85 vs UCLA. After an inj to
bkup QB Leaf & #3 QB Costa, the Ducks will be forced to use rFr QB?s Roper & Kempt (102 ypg, 36%, 2-4
ratio combined). RB Stewart has taken the bulk of the workload (79% of RB att?s) at the RB spot since an
ACL inj to Johnson in their 6th gm. WR Williams & TE Dickson became UO?s only consistent targets after
inj?s to WR?s Paysinger and Colvin (#2 & #3 on depth chart) early in the ssn. The OL avg 6?5? 311 & is led
by C Unger who helped lead the way for 243 ypg rush (5.1) while all?g just 23 sks (6.0% - 6 in the L/2 gms).
The Duck D had a better than expected ssn earning our #27 ranking. The DL led by DE Reed avg 6?3? 284
and the team allowed 137 ypg rush (3.6) with 35 sks. The LB position also battled inj?s losing WLB Tuitele
for most of the ssn (should be available) & MLB Bacon who tore his ACL vs ASU. UO?s secondary features
an abundance of playmakers led by ROV Chung and they finished #15 in pass eff D all?g 250 ypg (53%)
with an 18-16 ratio. The ST unit finished with the #46 ranking featuring a strong 1st yr effort from P Syria.
Both teams were ranked as high as #2 earlier this year and each believed they had a legitimate
chance to play in the BCS Title game. Oregon lost probable Heisman winner QB Dixon and now will go
with rFr Roper. While he struggled replacing Leaf vs UCLA, he had a week of practice to face Oreg St
and has worked with the #1?s the last month. Both defenses have talent that will be playing on Sunday
and by looking at the checklist you?ll see they are very evenly matched. Oregon will try to control the
TOP with Stewart running and Grothe has tossed 8 int the L/4 games.
FORECAST: OREGON (+) 21 South Florida 23 RATING: 2★
Tech is one of just 6 schools to play in a bowl gm in each of the L/11Y & ranks 3rd all time in
bowl winning % (62.9). This will be the 2nd time GT has played in the Humanitarian Bowl as they
defeated Tulsa, 52-10 in ?03 & it was the last time the Jackets played on artificial turf. GT & FSU
have met just once before, a 30-21 FSU win in ?02 Silicon Valley Classic. GT fired their HC Gailey,
who led the Jackets to a bowl gm in each of his 6 seasons, after they lost to in-state rival UGA for
the 7th straight yr. DC Tenuta has taken over as the interim HC. This will be Tenuta?s 3rd time vs the
Bulldogs. Fresno should have the fan edge as this is in a WAC stadium & GT fans won?t travel this
far to sit in the snow. FSU played Nov 30th while GT?s last gm was Nov 24th. GT has 16 upperclassmen
starters including 11 Sr?s while FSU has 12 upperclassmen including 6 Sr?s. The Jackets are
just 4-7-1 as an AF and FSU is 3-1 as an AD. GT faced 6 bowl caliber tms going 1-5 ATS & was
outscored 24-15 & outgained 394-325. Fresno went 1-4 SU & 3-2 ATS vs bowl tms & was outgained
by 121 ypg & outscored by 9 ppg. The Bulldogs had their string of 7 consec bowl gm appearances
snapped LY but turned its ?06 record of 4-8 around to finish 8-4 in ?07. Fresno is in a bowl for the 8th
time under HC Hill and the Bulldogs are 3-4 SU & 4-3 ATS. Each of FSU?s 7 bowl gms under Hill
were closely contested & all were decided by single digits, an avg of 6 ppg. Fresno is 2-0 SU & ATS
vs tms from the ACC with both meetings occurring in a bowl game. Aside from its win over GT in
?02, FSU defeated UVA 37-34 (+5) in OT in the MPC Computers Bowl here in ?04.
Tenuta said he will not make any changes on the def or sp tms but expects to do some tinkering
on offense (#52), especially in the passing game which ranks #102 in the NCAA. Tenuta will probably
go with more than 1 QB. FSU ranks #86 in run def & now has to face a healthy Choice (hamstring &
knee), who finished as the #1 rusher in the ACC (#15 NCAA). GT?s OL avg 6?3? 295 & has paved the
way for a solid 4.8 ypc rush & all?d just 19 sks (5.7%). GT?s rush D is ranked 12th in NCAA all?g 100
ypg & GT is #1 NCAA with 47 sks, but now has to face the #16 rush off (FSU avg 205 ypg rush). The
DL avg 6?4? 268 with 2 Sr starters & is allowing just 2.8 ypc. LB Wheeler, GT?s leading tklr, is solid
around the line of scrimmage. As solid as GT?s overall D (#28) has been, it struggled on pass D & is
#58 all?g 210 ypg (55%). While they all?d just 11 TD, they only came up with 5 int (#117 NCAA). Ray
Guy Winner P Brooks, who has the highest career punting avg ever in the ACC, is #4 in the NCAA
TY & PK Bell is #4 in FG?s on our #3 ST?s unit.
FSU has our #64 offense which is directed by QB Brandstater who really took a step forward in
his progression TY. What?s more, the bigger FSU?s game & opponent, the bigger he played in those
gms. In Fresno?s five gms TY vs BCS conf tms or tms that appeared in the rankings in ?07, Brandstater
threw for 1,264 yds (62%) & 10 TD with only 3 int. When RB Dwayne Wright (1462 yds) left early for
the NFL LY, the backfield was a concern for the Bulldogs entering ?07. However, that concern soon
gave way to strong performances in FSU?s RB-by-committee backfield that racked up 2,456 yds &
30 TD on the ground TY. The OL avg 6?4? 285 & paved the way for 4.7 ypc while allowing 18 sks. TE
Pascoe led the tm in rec thru 11 gms before WR Moore turned it up down the stretch. In FSU?s final
two gms, Moore had 13 rec (18.5) with 2 TD and recorded the only 100 yd rec gms by a Bulldog TY.
FSU DL avg 6?2? 265 & features two Sr?s. The defense is led by LB Riley who posted 51 more tkls than
any other Bulldog en route to earning WAC Def POY honors. FSU had the fewest int by any tm in the
NCAA TY with 3. FSU has our #8 rated ST unit & is led by Jefferson who is #1 in the NCAA in KR.
Fresno St has lived by HC Pat Hill?s mantra ?Anyone, Anywhere, Anytime?. They made a statement
knocking off Kansas St and took A&M to OT and would relish a win vs a BCS conference
team in a bowl. In LY?s Humanitarian Bowl Nevada had the crowd edge as the Boise fans supported
their conference foe and you?ll find the same situation again. Fresno?s offense has been clicking at
the end of the season and Brandstater, at 6?5?, has nimble feet and a cannon for an arm while GT
players will be thinking about how next season?s switch to the option affects them.
FORECAST: FRESNO ST (+) 30 Georgia Tech 24 RATING: 4*
UK is 3-1-1 vs FSU with the last meeting a 26-24 win by UK in 1965. FSU is 39-33-4 vs SEC teams
not incl Florida. FSU is 4-5 as an unfamiliar AD while KY is 4-2 as an AF under Brooks. LY FSU avoided
their 2nd losing ssn with their 44-27 win over UCLA in the Emerald Bowl, and need a win TY to put a
positive finish to an up & down ssn. Since 1982 FSU leads the NCAA with a 18-6-1 bowl record (16-8-1
ATS). FSU was in danger of breaking their consecutive bowl appearances (28th, 38th overall) at 5-3 with
Nov gms vs BC, VT, MD & Florida. They split going 2-2 with wins at BC & at home vs MD before their
45-12 loss to FL. FSU was unable to score a TD vs the Gators & was outgained 541-287 while KY was
able to score 5 TD & outgained FL 512-427. KY will be going to B2B bowl games for the 4th time in their
history and will make their 2nd straight trip to the Music City Bowl while this will be FSU?s 1st visit. LY UK
defeated Clemson 28-20 (+10?) in front of a record crowd for the Music City Bowl and most of the fans
were wearing blue. UK fans snapped up 27,000 tickets to this bowl because Lexington is within driving
distance and should greatly outnumber FSU fans who have been notoriously absent from recent bowl
appearances. UK has only won B2B bowls once in their history (?51-?52). KY has played 9 bowl caliber
teams going 4-5 SU & ATS with an avg score of 34-34 & outgaining those tms 429-399. FSU has played
8 bowl caliber tms going 4-4 SU & ATS being outgained 381-315 & outscored 23-20. FSU has 6 senior
starters among 14 upperclassmen in the starting lineup while KY has 9 seniors & 14 upperclassmen.
The Noles have our #60 off ranking avg 23 ppg & 360 ypg. Bowden cleaned house after LY?s dismal ssn &
brought in LSU OC Jimbo Fisher to revamp his offense, who has been named Bowden?s successor when he
retires. Still a work in progress, FSU made minor improvements. QB Weatherford was benched after subpar
performances in the 1st 4 gms, but returned after Lee consistently turned the ball over. Weatherford has 1 int
in 270 att?s after throwing 29 in 1st 2Y. RB Smith was banged up this season and never really produced. He
missed vs MD & the Noles moved over WR Parker who rushed for 133 (6.7). Parker leads the team in rec?s
& all-purp yds avg 112 ypg. The OL avg 6?5? 286 paving the way for 121 rush ypg (3.5) all?g 21 sks (5.0%).
The defense which is the strength of the team, returned 8 starters but all?d nearly 60 ypg more than LY &
all?d 437 ypg over L/4 gms. They have our #24 defense all?g 22 ppg & 350 ttl ypg with a league low 26 sks
(6.3%). The DL avg 6?3? 263, all?g 114 ypg rush (3.3). The defense is led by LB Hayes who is tied for #15 in
NCAA in tfl with 17.5. CB Robinson is tied for 10th in NCAA with 6 int. FSU has our #38 pass eff defense
all?g 236 ypg (56%) with a 20-16 ratio. The Noles have a large edge on sp tms (#16-89) led by Parker avg
10.4 yds on PR?s & K Cismesia who was 8-12 from 40+ incl a 60 yd FG vs FL. The bowl elig of some FSU
players could be affected by an academic misconduct case that?s under investigation.
Future NFL QB Woodson ret?d for his senior yr to end some of the school?s long losing streaks
and was able to help the tm achieve some of those goals including their first win over rival Louisville
since ?02 and their first win over a #1 tm (LSU) since 1964. Woodson avg?d 275 ypg (65%) with a 26-4
ratio in the 1st 8 gms and was being touted for the Heisman, but then injs to RB?s Little & Dixon and
WR Burton and an inexplicable OL collapse which left Woodson scrambling for his life at times, led to
a 10-6 ratio in the L/4 gms. Woodson set an NCAA record with 325 passes without an int and finished
#1 in the SEC in pass ypg. The OL finished last in the SEC with 35 sks all?d (23 in L/5 gms) & the tm
avg?d 157 ypg rush (4.2). With all of the offensive injs, UK avg?d just 21 ppg in regulation the L/4 (40
ppg the 1st 8). Little, Burton and Dixon should be healthy for the bowl. UK?s #55 defense is led by LB
Woodyard (#1 SEC tkl pg) and DE Jarmon (#2 SEC sks). UK?s secondary finished #44 in our pass D
rankings all?g 200 ypg (56%) with a 23-15 ratio.
Kentucky finished their season losing 4 of their last 5 after upsetting LSU. Florida St underachieved
for a 2nd straight year but did finish LY with a bowl win. The Wildcats and QB Woodson will get most
of the headlines while the Seminoles will be insulted as a bowl underdog for the 2nd straight year.
FSU has a significant def edge and will be able to slow Woodson while the FSU offense has talent
and speed and look for OC Fisher to open up the offense with a few new wrinkles.
FORECAST: FLORIDA ST (+) 31 Kentucky 24 RATING: 3★
These schools met once in 1930. Indiana snapped a 14 yr bowl drought & 12 straight losing ssns
in the midst of an emotional yr with the passing of HC Hoeppner in June. The Hoosiers are 3-5 in
bowls & 4-1 ATS S/?87. HC Lynch (1st IU HC to lead tm to bowl in debut ssn) guided Ball St to the ?96
Las Vegas Bowl (lost 18-15, but covered +6?). OSU is 11-6 SU in bowls (1-3-1 ATS S/?97), but hasn?t
won B2B post season gms since ?87 & ?88. HC Gundy is 3-0 SU & ATS as a player/cch in bowls for
the Cowboys. Indiana is 23-19-6 vs current B12 teams, but hasn?t played one S/?92. OSU is 1-8-1
vs the B10, including 0-2 SU & ATS in bowls. This is both teams? 1st trip to the Insight Bowl which is
played on grass. Indiana (3-8 ATS) & OSU (4-8 ATS) both normally play on artificial turf. The Hoosiers
are 12-26 ATS as an AD and the Cowboys are 8-3 as an AF. Both teams played 8 bowl eligible foes
and Indiana was 3-5 SU (4-4 ATS) all?g 432 ypg & only avg 354 ypg on offense. OSU was just 2-6 SU
(3-4-1 ATS) all?g 479 ypg, but did avg 453 ypg on off. Both have 7 senior starters, but OSU has 14
upperclassmen (64%) while IU has 11 (50%). Indiana has had a extra wk of prep as they played their
last gm on Nov 17th. The Cowboys? Orange Brigade will be well represented but Indiana is offering
free tickets to students and has a sizable alumni base in Arizona.
Oklahoma St finished in the B12 South basement (1st tm other than Baylor) 2 yrs ago allowing
418 ypg. They improved on that LY by 54 ypg, but let DC Bedford go. Former Ohio St DB cch Beckman
was brought in as the new DC TY & the def allowed 447 ypg which was the most S/?88 (455 ypg). For
all the trouble with the def TY the spread off had its best yr under HC Gundy & OC Fedora avg 484
ypg (best ironically S/?88, 515 ypg) & the 2nd highest mark since 1940. QB Reid started the first 2
gms, but in a surprise move was benched for Robinson (single ssn rec for ttl yds, 3299) who has not
relinquished his duties. He did miss some time in the reg ssn finale, but X-rays only showed a bruised
shoulder so he should be 100% for the bowl. The rushing yds have gone up by 38 ypg from LY as the
ypc has increased each of the L/3Y (3.9, 5.2 & 5.4). RB Savage has topped 100+ yds in 9 straight. The
Cowboys are 1 of only two IA tms (Houston) to avg 230+ ypg in both rushing & passing. WR Bowman
should be 100% after missing 2.5 gms. The front seven is led by Sr DE Peterson (6?2?? 240). The LB
corps suffered TY as 3 of the players on the preseason 2 deep were dismissed from the program. The
Cowboys rank #100 in our pass eff def giving up 292 ypg (66%) with a 25-12 ratio & clearly this is the
weakness of the tm as the leading tklr is a former WR. Oklahoma St is ranked #11 on offense, but just
#66 on the defensive side & comes in at #69 on ST?s.
After HC Hoeppner died of brain cancer in June, the team and interim HC Lynch dedicated the
2007 ssn to his memory with the goal of ?Playing 13?. IU started the season 5-1 but lost 3 in a row
before rebounding to win 2 of their L/3 to clinch an elusive bid and rightly rewarded Lynch with a 4
year contract extension. The Hoosiers are led by QB Lewis who is rewriting the team?s record book
as a soph. Lewis was also the tm?s top rusher by default as the RB?s struggled due to inj?s in ?07. The
WR corps is probably the deepest in IU history led by 6?7? NFL prospect Hardy who was #2 in the
NCAA in TD rec?s. Hoeppner?s ?7 Blocks of Limestone? OL recruiting class paid dividends with 3 starters
contributing to an off (#62) which avg?d 4.2 ypc and allowed 30 sks. IU?s D (#64) is small by B10
standards with none of the LB?s weighing even 235 lbs. The front 7 was vulnerable vs the run allowing
199.6 ypg to bowl eligible tms but DE Middleton emerged as star as he led the nation in sks. IU set a
school record with 42 sks. The secondary features first day NFL prospect CB Porter and the Hoosiers
rank #61 in pass eff D. IU is #52 in ST?s led by Groza finalist K Starr who hit 10-11 from 40+ including
the game winning 49 yd FG which beat rival Purdue and clinched the Hoosiers? bowl bid.
IU set a goal of ?Playing 13? and reached that goal. You now have a team that is making their first
bowl appearance in 14 years and emotionally feel that this season is a success. Oklahoma St meanwhile
is in their 5th bowl in 6 years, knocked off an SEC opponent LY, and with a 6-6 record knows that a
loss makes this season a complete disappointment. OkSt has more offensive weapons and has been
much more competitive versus a far more difficult schedule (#15-77).
FORECAST: OKLAHOMA ST 38 Indiana 31 RATING: 1★
Less than 48 hours after the Chick-fil-A Bowl selected Clemson and Auburn, officials declared the
game a complete sellout. This will be the first meeting between these two since the ?98 Chick-fil-A Bowl,
won by Auburn 21-17 under Terry Bowden, Tommy?s brother. AU is 32-11-2 in this series & has won each
of the L/12. This will be Clemson?s 30th bowl appearance (15-14 overall) and its 7th in the Chick-fil-A
(2-4). CU last appeared here in 2004 when it upset #6 Tennessee 27-14. CU is 3-4 SU & 2-5 ATS under
Bowden in bowls. Overall Aub is making their 34th bowl appearance & this is their 8th straight bowl under
Tuberville (5-3 SU & ATS overall). Aub hasn?t been a bowl dog since their ?02 upset of Penn St in the
Capital One Bowl. Aub is 2-1 SU and 0-3 ATS in prior Peach Bowl appearances. Bowden served as an
assistant coach at Auburn from ?91-?96. Clemson is 4-1 SU & 3-2 ATS on the road TY, all as a fav but are
just 8-14-1 in that role under Bowden. Aub was 3-1 ATS (2-2 SU) with 2 outright upsets as an AD TY &
is 10-3 as an AD since ?02. CU is 2-2 ATS on artificial turf under Bowden with both wins coming in bowl
gms. Aub last played in the Georgia Dome in the ?04 SEC Champ gm. AU faced the tougher schedule TY
(#29-51). Both tms have only 6 senior starters, but CU has 15 upperclassmen starting while Aub has 12.
CU has faced 9 bowl caliber teams (6-3 SU, 4-5 ATS), outscoring them 31-20 & outgaining them 401-309.
Aub has faced 7 bowl tms (3-4 SU, 4-3 ATS) and was outscored 23-19 and outgained 326-283.
After rumors spread that Ark was interested in Bowden, CU offered him a contract extension. A
victory here would give the Tigers a 10 win season for the first time S/?90. QB Harper is #1 in the ACC
(#17 NCAA) in pass eff with a solid 27-6 ratio (TD?s CU rec). RB Davis, who is 2nd in CU history in
career rushing with 3,058 yds, is CU?s top RB & half of the ?Thunder-and-Lightning? attack. The other
half is Spiller, who is not only the #2 rusher but #3 in rec?s. WR Kelly led the ACC in rec ypg & has set a
CU single ssn record in rec. The OL avg 6?5? 313 and is led by 4 senior starters who are opening holes
for 159 ypg rush (4.1) but did allow 32 sks (#99 NCAA). Both teams have Top 10 defenses and CU?s D
is only all?g 297 total ypg & 18 pts per gm. The DL avg 6?5? 278 and all?d just 3.3 ypc rush, considering
they only had 26 sks (T#9 FSU in ACC). CU was +12 in TO margin (#2 ACC, #10 NCAA). DE Merling
leads the tm in sks & tfl but he also has the ability to drop back into pass coverage. Watkins and BIllie
are CU?s top LB?s and they have combined for almost 200 tkls. CU has our #20 pass eff D all?g 185 ypg
(58%) with an 11-15 ratio, led by safeties Hamlin & Clemons. CU?s K game struggled TY as PK Buchholz
who also played on CU?s soccer team and many times had games the night before a FB game incl
driving down to Atlanta late Friday night to face GT & where his 4 missed FG?s cost CU the game. He
also missed 2 vs BC incl one as time expired for yet another loss. Buchholz did however make the game
winner in their season finale as time expired for the 23-21 win vs SC.
Aub?s ssn started out rough when they almost lost to KSt (14 pts scored in last 2:01 for 10 pt win),
then suffered B2B upsets at home vs USF & Miss St. Heading into the Swamp at the end of Sept, Aub
was a 17? pt dog and brought Tebow to tears as true frosh PK Byrum hit the 43 yd gm winner twice to end
UF?s 18 gm home win streak. After that Aub?s ssn turned around with the only other losses being a close
loss to LSU and a mistake-filled loss to UGA (both BCS tms). Usually steady QB Cox struggled with a 2-6
ratio in the 1st 3 gms and had a 1-4 ratio in their blowout loss to UGA. True frosh bkup QB Burns actually
started the NMSt gm, but Cox came off the bench to lead the win and Burns served as a change of pace
mobile QB the rest of the yr. The running gm wasn?t up to par early in the ssn, but improved significantly
once Lester ret?d from susp in gm 6. Aub?s OL had 3 true frosh starters (24 sks allowed, 154 rush ypg,
3.7) which is another reason the offense finished #90, and led to the resignation of OC Borges prior to
the bowl. Aub?s #9 D held Doak Walker winner McFadden to 43 yds & overall allowed 119 ypg (3.5) & 17
ppg. Aub finished #16 in our pass defense rankings allowing just 179 pass ypg. Tuberville was rumored
to be a candidate at TX A&M, LSU & Ark TY, but reportedly has agreed to return to Aub next year.
Tuberville called this gm a ?true rivalry? as the tms are close in proximity and recruit many of the same
players. These 2 teams are ranked #8 & #9 in our defensive ratings but Clemson has a large edge on offense.
Auburn was outgained on the season by 43 ypg vs bowl foes while Clemson outgained their bowl opponents
by 92 ypg. Clemson?s embarrassing bowl performance LY insures that Bowden has this team ready.
FORECAST: CLEMSON 19 Auburn 13 RATING: 2★
These two met once in the ?81 Garden State Bowl which UT won 28-21. The Vols make a return
visit to Tampa where they are 1-1 SU & ATS in their history including LY?s 20-10 upset loss to Penn
St (-4?). The Badgers make their 4th appearance in this game (1-2 SU & 2-1 ATS). The last time they
visited Tampa in ?04 they hung tough with favored Georgia but lost 24-21 (+8). The bowl committee
snapped up UW nearly a week before all the other bowl invites were handed out because of their fans?
fine reputation as travellers. Fulmer is 3-2 SU & ATS vs the Big Ten in bowls (7-7 SU & ATS overall).
UW has pulled 2 straight upsets of ranked SEC teams in NY?s Day bowls to bring their record up to
2-3 SU & 3-2 ATS vs the league in bowls (LY?s win under Bielema). UT has played a tougher schedule
(#20-46) taking on 10 bowl eligible teams (6-4 SU & 5-3-2 ATS) to UW?s 7 (4-3 SU & 2-5 ATS), but UT
was outgained 429-385 while UW outgained bowl foes 400-370. Both struggled on the road TY with
UT 2-4 SU & 2-3-1 ATS while UW was 2-3 SU & 0-5 ATS! UW has 5 senior starters & UT has 7. UW is
1-3 ATS as a dog TY & UT is 6-1 ATS as an AF S/?05. UW finished their season Nov 17 while UT last
played on Dec 1 but the extra rest has not affected this Big Ten team the L/2Y.
UW came into ?07 with expectations to not only win their 1st Big Ten Title S/?99 but also to compete for
their first-ever Nat?l Title as they opened the yr at #7. QB Donovan was 1 of just 2 new starters on off but
inj?s hampered the unit all ssn. TE Crooks, WR?s Swan and Hubbard, RB Hill and RG Kemp were among
the starters who missed multiple gms. The Badgers, who never quite looked like the tm that finished 12-1
in Bielema?s debut season, won their 1st 5 gms to climb into the Top 5 before losing to an unranked yet
favored Illinois tm. Donovan?s efficiency was hampered by the banged up rec corps which by the Penn
St gm saw the Badgers starting 2 true Fr WR?s. Eventually Hubbard returned for the L/5 gms to provide
the offense with a big play threat. The off MVP was John Mackey finalist Beckum who led the NCAA?s
TE in rec ypg and was #2 in rec per game. RB depth was a season long problem as #2 TB Smith was
suspended for all road games (is elig for bowl). When Hill was injured vs Indiana the staff was forced
to turn to true frosh Brown and he finished with 421 yds (5.5) in the L/3. UW returned 5 of their front 7
but were disappointing as they surrendered 73 more pass ypg & 13 extra TD passes than in ?06. The S
play was erratic as well as CB Ikegwuonu?s play slipped (1st tm All-Big Ten in ?06). The Badgers will be
without DT Chapman (knee), CB Langford (knee) and possibly Hill (leg) for the bowl.
UT?s roller coaster ssn started with a 1-2 record with blowout losses to Cal & rival UF and fans were
calling for Fulmer?s head. A blowout win over rival UGA quieted the fans until 2 wks later when the Vols
were blown out by rival Bama. Prior to the Ark gm, 191 former UT players including Peyton Manning took
out a full page ad supporting Fulmer, and UT finished the reg ssn with 5 str wins clinching a spot in the
SEC Champ gm. UT?s offense (#32) is led by Sr QB Ainge who lost his top 3 rec?s from ?06, but still topped
LY?s ydg & threw 10 more TD. Taylor became Ainge?s go-to guy finishing #3 in the SEC in rec pg despite
being less than 100% in several gms. RB Foster turned in a career best ssn with five 100+ rush gms. UT?s
OL has been outstanding allowing just 4 sks in 491 pass atts (0.8%) which is #1 in the NCAA. DC Chavis
has built outstanding defenses here, but TY was an exception. UT finished #46 in overall D, but #76 in our
pass eff D rankings with 3 CB?s lost to inj & dismissal since April ?07. Undersized FS Hefney (2nd Tm SEC
?06) had a disappointing beginning of the yr, but true frosh SS Berry emerged as a star setting a UT record
with 222 int ret yds TY. Overall UT was outscored 29.7-28.6 and outgained 415-372 in SEC play TY but
their bend-but-don?t-break defense allowed just 20 ppg in regulation the L/6 (32 ppg 1st 7).
UT has had an all-or-nothing approach to the bowls the last few yrs with huge blowout wins over
TX A&M in ?04 & Michigan in ?01, but blowout losses to Clem & Maryland in B2B Peach Bowls in ?02
& ?03. The Vols finished with a loss in the SEC Championship but had a successful 9 win season with
a New Year?s Day bowl bid. Highly respected UT OC Cutcliffe was named HC of Duke and may not
coach the Vols in the bowl. Wisc has covered the L/3 vs the SEC on NY?s Day but Tenn did finish on a
7-3-2 ATS run while facing 10 bowl eligible teams. The Vols running game & defense improved as the
season progressed making them the more balanced team and the choice here.
FORECAST: TENNESSEE 35 WISCONSIN 24 RATING: 3★
bowl winning % (62.9). This will be the 2nd time GT has played in the Humanitarian Bowl as they
defeated Tulsa, 52-10 in ?03 & it was the last time the Jackets played on artificial turf. GT & FSU
have met just once before, a 30-21 FSU win in ?02 Silicon Valley Classic. GT fired their HC Gailey,
who led the Jackets to a bowl gm in each of his 6 seasons, after they lost to in-state rival UGA for
the 7th straight yr. DC Tenuta has taken over as the interim HC. This will be Tenuta?s 3rd time vs the
Bulldogs. Fresno should have the fan edge as this is in a WAC stadium & GT fans won?t travel this
far to sit in the snow. FSU played Nov 30th while GT?s last gm was Nov 24th. GT has 16 upperclassmen
starters including 11 Sr?s while FSU has 12 upperclassmen including 6 Sr?s. The Jackets are
just 4-7-1 as an AF and FSU is 3-1 as an AD. GT faced 6 bowl caliber tms going 1-5 ATS & was
outscored 24-15 & outgained 394-325. Fresno went 1-4 SU & 3-2 ATS vs bowl tms & was outgained
by 121 ypg & outscored by 9 ppg. The Bulldogs had their string of 7 consec bowl gm appearances
snapped LY but turned its ?06 record of 4-8 around to finish 8-4 in ?07. Fresno is in a bowl for the 8th
time under HC Hill and the Bulldogs are 3-4 SU & 4-3 ATS. Each of FSU?s 7 bowl gms under Hill
were closely contested & all were decided by single digits, an avg of 6 ppg. Fresno is 2-0 SU & ATS
vs tms from the ACC with both meetings occurring in a bowl game. Aside from its win over GT in
?02, FSU defeated UVA 37-34 (+5) in OT in the MPC Computers Bowl here in ?04.
Tenuta said he will not make any changes on the def or sp tms but expects to do some tinkering
on offense (#52), especially in the passing game which ranks #102 in the NCAA. Tenuta will probably
go with more than 1 QB. FSU ranks #86 in run def & now has to face a healthy Choice (hamstring &
knee), who finished as the #1 rusher in the ACC (#15 NCAA). GT?s OL avg 6?3? 295 & has paved the
way for a solid 4.8 ypc rush & all?d just 19 sks (5.7%). GT?s rush D is ranked 12th in NCAA all?g 100
ypg & GT is #1 NCAA with 47 sks, but now has to face the #16 rush off (FSU avg 205 ypg rush). The
DL avg 6?4? 268 with 2 Sr starters & is allowing just 2.8 ypc. LB Wheeler, GT?s leading tklr, is solid
around the line of scrimmage. As solid as GT?s overall D (#28) has been, it struggled on pass D & is
#58 all?g 210 ypg (55%). While they all?d just 11 TD, they only came up with 5 int (#117 NCAA). Ray
Guy Winner P Brooks, who has the highest career punting avg ever in the ACC, is #4 in the NCAA
TY & PK Bell is #4 in FG?s on our #3 ST?s unit.
FSU has our #64 offense which is directed by QB Brandstater who really took a step forward in
his progression TY. What?s more, the bigger FSU?s game & opponent, the bigger he played in those
gms. In Fresno?s five gms TY vs BCS conf tms or tms that appeared in the rankings in ?07, Brandstater
threw for 1,264 yds (62%) & 10 TD with only 3 int. When RB Dwayne Wright (1462 yds) left early for
the NFL LY, the backfield was a concern for the Bulldogs entering ?07. However, that concern soon
gave way to strong performances in FSU?s RB-by-committee backfield that racked up 2,456 yds &
30 TD on the ground TY. The OL avg 6?4? 285 & paved the way for 4.7 ypc while allowing 18 sks. TE
Pascoe led the tm in rec thru 11 gms before WR Moore turned it up down the stretch. In FSU?s final
two gms, Moore had 13 rec (18.5) with 2 TD and recorded the only 100 yd rec gms by a Bulldog TY.
FSU DL avg 6?2? 265 & features two Sr?s. The defense is led by LB Riley who posted 51 more tkls than
any other Bulldog en route to earning WAC Def POY honors. FSU had the fewest int by any tm in the
NCAA TY with 3. FSU has our #8 rated ST unit & is led by Jefferson who is #1 in the NCAA in KR.
Fresno St has lived by HC Pat Hill?s mantra ?Anyone, Anywhere, Anytime?. They made a statement
knocking off Kansas St and took A&M to OT and would relish a win vs a BCS conference
team in a bowl. In LY?s Humanitarian Bowl Nevada had the crowd edge as the Boise fans supported
their conference foe and you?ll find the same situation again. Fresno?s offense has been clicking at
the end of the season and Brandstater, at 6?5?, has nimble feet and a cannon for an arm while GT
players will be thinking about how next season?s switch to the option affects them.
FORECAST: FRESNO ST (+) 30 Georgia Tech 24 RATING: 4*
UK is 3-1-1 vs FSU with the last meeting a 26-24 win by UK in 1965. FSU is 39-33-4 vs SEC teams
not incl Florida. FSU is 4-5 as an unfamiliar AD while KY is 4-2 as an AF under Brooks. LY FSU avoided
their 2nd losing ssn with their 44-27 win over UCLA in the Emerald Bowl, and need a win TY to put a
positive finish to an up & down ssn. Since 1982 FSU leads the NCAA with a 18-6-1 bowl record (16-8-1
ATS). FSU was in danger of breaking their consecutive bowl appearances (28th, 38th overall) at 5-3 with
Nov gms vs BC, VT, MD & Florida. They split going 2-2 with wins at BC & at home vs MD before their
45-12 loss to FL. FSU was unable to score a TD vs the Gators & was outgained 541-287 while KY was
able to score 5 TD & outgained FL 512-427. KY will be going to B2B bowl games for the 4th time in their
history and will make their 2nd straight trip to the Music City Bowl while this will be FSU?s 1st visit. LY UK
defeated Clemson 28-20 (+10?) in front of a record crowd for the Music City Bowl and most of the fans
were wearing blue. UK fans snapped up 27,000 tickets to this bowl because Lexington is within driving
distance and should greatly outnumber FSU fans who have been notoriously absent from recent bowl
appearances. UK has only won B2B bowls once in their history (?51-?52). KY has played 9 bowl caliber
teams going 4-5 SU & ATS with an avg score of 34-34 & outgaining those tms 429-399. FSU has played
8 bowl caliber tms going 4-4 SU & ATS being outgained 381-315 & outscored 23-20. FSU has 6 senior
starters among 14 upperclassmen in the starting lineup while KY has 9 seniors & 14 upperclassmen.
The Noles have our #60 off ranking avg 23 ppg & 360 ypg. Bowden cleaned house after LY?s dismal ssn &
brought in LSU OC Jimbo Fisher to revamp his offense, who has been named Bowden?s successor when he
retires. Still a work in progress, FSU made minor improvements. QB Weatherford was benched after subpar
performances in the 1st 4 gms, but returned after Lee consistently turned the ball over. Weatherford has 1 int
in 270 att?s after throwing 29 in 1st 2Y. RB Smith was banged up this season and never really produced. He
missed vs MD & the Noles moved over WR Parker who rushed for 133 (6.7). Parker leads the team in rec?s
& all-purp yds avg 112 ypg. The OL avg 6?5? 286 paving the way for 121 rush ypg (3.5) all?g 21 sks (5.0%).
The defense which is the strength of the team, returned 8 starters but all?d nearly 60 ypg more than LY &
all?d 437 ypg over L/4 gms. They have our #24 defense all?g 22 ppg & 350 ttl ypg with a league low 26 sks
(6.3%). The DL avg 6?3? 263, all?g 114 ypg rush (3.3). The defense is led by LB Hayes who is tied for #15 in
NCAA in tfl with 17.5. CB Robinson is tied for 10th in NCAA with 6 int. FSU has our #38 pass eff defense
all?g 236 ypg (56%) with a 20-16 ratio. The Noles have a large edge on sp tms (#16-89) led by Parker avg
10.4 yds on PR?s & K Cismesia who was 8-12 from 40+ incl a 60 yd FG vs FL. The bowl elig of some FSU
players could be affected by an academic misconduct case that?s under investigation.
Future NFL QB Woodson ret?d for his senior yr to end some of the school?s long losing streaks
and was able to help the tm achieve some of those goals including their first win over rival Louisville
since ?02 and their first win over a #1 tm (LSU) since 1964. Woodson avg?d 275 ypg (65%) with a 26-4
ratio in the 1st 8 gms and was being touted for the Heisman, but then injs to RB?s Little & Dixon and
WR Burton and an inexplicable OL collapse which left Woodson scrambling for his life at times, led to
a 10-6 ratio in the L/4 gms. Woodson set an NCAA record with 325 passes without an int and finished
#1 in the SEC in pass ypg. The OL finished last in the SEC with 35 sks all?d (23 in L/5 gms) & the tm
avg?d 157 ypg rush (4.2). With all of the offensive injs, UK avg?d just 21 ppg in regulation the L/4 (40
ppg the 1st 8). Little, Burton and Dixon should be healthy for the bowl. UK?s #55 defense is led by LB
Woodyard (#1 SEC tkl pg) and DE Jarmon (#2 SEC sks). UK?s secondary finished #44 in our pass D
rankings all?g 200 ypg (56%) with a 23-15 ratio.
Kentucky finished their season losing 4 of their last 5 after upsetting LSU. Florida St underachieved
for a 2nd straight year but did finish LY with a bowl win. The Wildcats and QB Woodson will get most
of the headlines while the Seminoles will be insulted as a bowl underdog for the 2nd straight year.
FSU has a significant def edge and will be able to slow Woodson while the FSU offense has talent
and speed and look for OC Fisher to open up the offense with a few new wrinkles.
FORECAST: FLORIDA ST (+) 31 Kentucky 24 RATING: 3★
These schools met once in 1930. Indiana snapped a 14 yr bowl drought & 12 straight losing ssns
in the midst of an emotional yr with the passing of HC Hoeppner in June. The Hoosiers are 3-5 in
bowls & 4-1 ATS S/?87. HC Lynch (1st IU HC to lead tm to bowl in debut ssn) guided Ball St to the ?96
Las Vegas Bowl (lost 18-15, but covered +6?). OSU is 11-6 SU in bowls (1-3-1 ATS S/?97), but hasn?t
won B2B post season gms since ?87 & ?88. HC Gundy is 3-0 SU & ATS as a player/cch in bowls for
the Cowboys. Indiana is 23-19-6 vs current B12 teams, but hasn?t played one S/?92. OSU is 1-8-1
vs the B10, including 0-2 SU & ATS in bowls. This is both teams? 1st trip to the Insight Bowl which is
played on grass. Indiana (3-8 ATS) & OSU (4-8 ATS) both normally play on artificial turf. The Hoosiers
are 12-26 ATS as an AD and the Cowboys are 8-3 as an AF. Both teams played 8 bowl eligible foes
and Indiana was 3-5 SU (4-4 ATS) all?g 432 ypg & only avg 354 ypg on offense. OSU was just 2-6 SU
(3-4-1 ATS) all?g 479 ypg, but did avg 453 ypg on off. Both have 7 senior starters, but OSU has 14
upperclassmen (64%) while IU has 11 (50%). Indiana has had a extra wk of prep as they played their
last gm on Nov 17th. The Cowboys? Orange Brigade will be well represented but Indiana is offering
free tickets to students and has a sizable alumni base in Arizona.
Oklahoma St finished in the B12 South basement (1st tm other than Baylor) 2 yrs ago allowing
418 ypg. They improved on that LY by 54 ypg, but let DC Bedford go. Former Ohio St DB cch Beckman
was brought in as the new DC TY & the def allowed 447 ypg which was the most S/?88 (455 ypg). For
all the trouble with the def TY the spread off had its best yr under HC Gundy & OC Fedora avg 484
ypg (best ironically S/?88, 515 ypg) & the 2nd highest mark since 1940. QB Reid started the first 2
gms, but in a surprise move was benched for Robinson (single ssn rec for ttl yds, 3299) who has not
relinquished his duties. He did miss some time in the reg ssn finale, but X-rays only showed a bruised
shoulder so he should be 100% for the bowl. The rushing yds have gone up by 38 ypg from LY as the
ypc has increased each of the L/3Y (3.9, 5.2 & 5.4). RB Savage has topped 100+ yds in 9 straight. The
Cowboys are 1 of only two IA tms (Houston) to avg 230+ ypg in both rushing & passing. WR Bowman
should be 100% after missing 2.5 gms. The front seven is led by Sr DE Peterson (6?2?? 240). The LB
corps suffered TY as 3 of the players on the preseason 2 deep were dismissed from the program. The
Cowboys rank #100 in our pass eff def giving up 292 ypg (66%) with a 25-12 ratio & clearly this is the
weakness of the tm as the leading tklr is a former WR. Oklahoma St is ranked #11 on offense, but just
#66 on the defensive side & comes in at #69 on ST?s.
After HC Hoeppner died of brain cancer in June, the team and interim HC Lynch dedicated the
2007 ssn to his memory with the goal of ?Playing 13?. IU started the season 5-1 but lost 3 in a row
before rebounding to win 2 of their L/3 to clinch an elusive bid and rightly rewarded Lynch with a 4
year contract extension. The Hoosiers are led by QB Lewis who is rewriting the team?s record book
as a soph. Lewis was also the tm?s top rusher by default as the RB?s struggled due to inj?s in ?07. The
WR corps is probably the deepest in IU history led by 6?7? NFL prospect Hardy who was #2 in the
NCAA in TD rec?s. Hoeppner?s ?7 Blocks of Limestone? OL recruiting class paid dividends with 3 starters
contributing to an off (#62) which avg?d 4.2 ypc and allowed 30 sks. IU?s D (#64) is small by B10
standards with none of the LB?s weighing even 235 lbs. The front 7 was vulnerable vs the run allowing
199.6 ypg to bowl eligible tms but DE Middleton emerged as star as he led the nation in sks. IU set a
school record with 42 sks. The secondary features first day NFL prospect CB Porter and the Hoosiers
rank #61 in pass eff D. IU is #52 in ST?s led by Groza finalist K Starr who hit 10-11 from 40+ including
the game winning 49 yd FG which beat rival Purdue and clinched the Hoosiers? bowl bid.
IU set a goal of ?Playing 13? and reached that goal. You now have a team that is making their first
bowl appearance in 14 years and emotionally feel that this season is a success. Oklahoma St meanwhile
is in their 5th bowl in 6 years, knocked off an SEC opponent LY, and with a 6-6 record knows that a
loss makes this season a complete disappointment. OkSt has more offensive weapons and has been
much more competitive versus a far more difficult schedule (#15-77).
FORECAST: OKLAHOMA ST 38 Indiana 31 RATING: 1★
Less than 48 hours after the Chick-fil-A Bowl selected Clemson and Auburn, officials declared the
game a complete sellout. This will be the first meeting between these two since the ?98 Chick-fil-A Bowl,
won by Auburn 21-17 under Terry Bowden, Tommy?s brother. AU is 32-11-2 in this series & has won each
of the L/12. This will be Clemson?s 30th bowl appearance (15-14 overall) and its 7th in the Chick-fil-A
(2-4). CU last appeared here in 2004 when it upset #6 Tennessee 27-14. CU is 3-4 SU & 2-5 ATS under
Bowden in bowls. Overall Aub is making their 34th bowl appearance & this is their 8th straight bowl under
Tuberville (5-3 SU & ATS overall). Aub hasn?t been a bowl dog since their ?02 upset of Penn St in the
Capital One Bowl. Aub is 2-1 SU and 0-3 ATS in prior Peach Bowl appearances. Bowden served as an
assistant coach at Auburn from ?91-?96. Clemson is 4-1 SU & 3-2 ATS on the road TY, all as a fav but are
just 8-14-1 in that role under Bowden. Aub was 3-1 ATS (2-2 SU) with 2 outright upsets as an AD TY &
is 10-3 as an AD since ?02. CU is 2-2 ATS on artificial turf under Bowden with both wins coming in bowl
gms. Aub last played in the Georgia Dome in the ?04 SEC Champ gm. AU faced the tougher schedule TY
(#29-51). Both tms have only 6 senior starters, but CU has 15 upperclassmen starting while Aub has 12.
CU has faced 9 bowl caliber teams (6-3 SU, 4-5 ATS), outscoring them 31-20 & outgaining them 401-309.
Aub has faced 7 bowl tms (3-4 SU, 4-3 ATS) and was outscored 23-19 and outgained 326-283.
After rumors spread that Ark was interested in Bowden, CU offered him a contract extension. A
victory here would give the Tigers a 10 win season for the first time S/?90. QB Harper is #1 in the ACC
(#17 NCAA) in pass eff with a solid 27-6 ratio (TD?s CU rec). RB Davis, who is 2nd in CU history in
career rushing with 3,058 yds, is CU?s top RB & half of the ?Thunder-and-Lightning? attack. The other
half is Spiller, who is not only the #2 rusher but #3 in rec?s. WR Kelly led the ACC in rec ypg & has set a
CU single ssn record in rec. The OL avg 6?5? 313 and is led by 4 senior starters who are opening holes
for 159 ypg rush (4.1) but did allow 32 sks (#99 NCAA). Both teams have Top 10 defenses and CU?s D
is only all?g 297 total ypg & 18 pts per gm. The DL avg 6?5? 278 and all?d just 3.3 ypc rush, considering
they only had 26 sks (T#9 FSU in ACC). CU was +12 in TO margin (#2 ACC, #10 NCAA). DE Merling
leads the tm in sks & tfl but he also has the ability to drop back into pass coverage. Watkins and BIllie
are CU?s top LB?s and they have combined for almost 200 tkls. CU has our #20 pass eff D all?g 185 ypg
(58%) with an 11-15 ratio, led by safeties Hamlin & Clemons. CU?s K game struggled TY as PK Buchholz
who also played on CU?s soccer team and many times had games the night before a FB game incl
driving down to Atlanta late Friday night to face GT & where his 4 missed FG?s cost CU the game. He
also missed 2 vs BC incl one as time expired for yet another loss. Buchholz did however make the game
winner in their season finale as time expired for the 23-21 win vs SC.
Aub?s ssn started out rough when they almost lost to KSt (14 pts scored in last 2:01 for 10 pt win),
then suffered B2B upsets at home vs USF & Miss St. Heading into the Swamp at the end of Sept, Aub
was a 17? pt dog and brought Tebow to tears as true frosh PK Byrum hit the 43 yd gm winner twice to end
UF?s 18 gm home win streak. After that Aub?s ssn turned around with the only other losses being a close
loss to LSU and a mistake-filled loss to UGA (both BCS tms). Usually steady QB Cox struggled with a 2-6
ratio in the 1st 3 gms and had a 1-4 ratio in their blowout loss to UGA. True frosh bkup QB Burns actually
started the NMSt gm, but Cox came off the bench to lead the win and Burns served as a change of pace
mobile QB the rest of the yr. The running gm wasn?t up to par early in the ssn, but improved significantly
once Lester ret?d from susp in gm 6. Aub?s OL had 3 true frosh starters (24 sks allowed, 154 rush ypg,
3.7) which is another reason the offense finished #90, and led to the resignation of OC Borges prior to
the bowl. Aub?s #9 D held Doak Walker winner McFadden to 43 yds & overall allowed 119 ypg (3.5) & 17
ppg. Aub finished #16 in our pass defense rankings allowing just 179 pass ypg. Tuberville was rumored
to be a candidate at TX A&M, LSU & Ark TY, but reportedly has agreed to return to Aub next year.
Tuberville called this gm a ?true rivalry? as the tms are close in proximity and recruit many of the same
players. These 2 teams are ranked #8 & #9 in our defensive ratings but Clemson has a large edge on offense.
Auburn was outgained on the season by 43 ypg vs bowl foes while Clemson outgained their bowl opponents
by 92 ypg. Clemson?s embarrassing bowl performance LY insures that Bowden has this team ready.
FORECAST: CLEMSON 19 Auburn 13 RATING: 2★
These two met once in the ?81 Garden State Bowl which UT won 28-21. The Vols make a return
visit to Tampa where they are 1-1 SU & ATS in their history including LY?s 20-10 upset loss to Penn
St (-4?). The Badgers make their 4th appearance in this game (1-2 SU & 2-1 ATS). The last time they
visited Tampa in ?04 they hung tough with favored Georgia but lost 24-21 (+8). The bowl committee
snapped up UW nearly a week before all the other bowl invites were handed out because of their fans?
fine reputation as travellers. Fulmer is 3-2 SU & ATS vs the Big Ten in bowls (7-7 SU & ATS overall).
UW has pulled 2 straight upsets of ranked SEC teams in NY?s Day bowls to bring their record up to
2-3 SU & 3-2 ATS vs the league in bowls (LY?s win under Bielema). UT has played a tougher schedule
(#20-46) taking on 10 bowl eligible teams (6-4 SU & 5-3-2 ATS) to UW?s 7 (4-3 SU & 2-5 ATS), but UT
was outgained 429-385 while UW outgained bowl foes 400-370. Both struggled on the road TY with
UT 2-4 SU & 2-3-1 ATS while UW was 2-3 SU & 0-5 ATS! UW has 5 senior starters & UT has 7. UW is
1-3 ATS as a dog TY & UT is 6-1 ATS as an AF S/?05. UW finished their season Nov 17 while UT last
played on Dec 1 but the extra rest has not affected this Big Ten team the L/2Y.
UW came into ?07 with expectations to not only win their 1st Big Ten Title S/?99 but also to compete for
their first-ever Nat?l Title as they opened the yr at #7. QB Donovan was 1 of just 2 new starters on off but
inj?s hampered the unit all ssn. TE Crooks, WR?s Swan and Hubbard, RB Hill and RG Kemp were among
the starters who missed multiple gms. The Badgers, who never quite looked like the tm that finished 12-1
in Bielema?s debut season, won their 1st 5 gms to climb into the Top 5 before losing to an unranked yet
favored Illinois tm. Donovan?s efficiency was hampered by the banged up rec corps which by the Penn
St gm saw the Badgers starting 2 true Fr WR?s. Eventually Hubbard returned for the L/5 gms to provide
the offense with a big play threat. The off MVP was John Mackey finalist Beckum who led the NCAA?s
TE in rec ypg and was #2 in rec per game. RB depth was a season long problem as #2 TB Smith was
suspended for all road games (is elig for bowl). When Hill was injured vs Indiana the staff was forced
to turn to true frosh Brown and he finished with 421 yds (5.5) in the L/3. UW returned 5 of their front 7
but were disappointing as they surrendered 73 more pass ypg & 13 extra TD passes than in ?06. The S
play was erratic as well as CB Ikegwuonu?s play slipped (1st tm All-Big Ten in ?06). The Badgers will be
without DT Chapman (knee), CB Langford (knee) and possibly Hill (leg) for the bowl.
UT?s roller coaster ssn started with a 1-2 record with blowout losses to Cal & rival UF and fans were
calling for Fulmer?s head. A blowout win over rival UGA quieted the fans until 2 wks later when the Vols
were blown out by rival Bama. Prior to the Ark gm, 191 former UT players including Peyton Manning took
out a full page ad supporting Fulmer, and UT finished the reg ssn with 5 str wins clinching a spot in the
SEC Champ gm. UT?s offense (#32) is led by Sr QB Ainge who lost his top 3 rec?s from ?06, but still topped
LY?s ydg & threw 10 more TD. Taylor became Ainge?s go-to guy finishing #3 in the SEC in rec pg despite
being less than 100% in several gms. RB Foster turned in a career best ssn with five 100+ rush gms. UT?s
OL has been outstanding allowing just 4 sks in 491 pass atts (0.8%) which is #1 in the NCAA. DC Chavis
has built outstanding defenses here, but TY was an exception. UT finished #46 in overall D, but #76 in our
pass eff D rankings with 3 CB?s lost to inj & dismissal since April ?07. Undersized FS Hefney (2nd Tm SEC
?06) had a disappointing beginning of the yr, but true frosh SS Berry emerged as a star setting a UT record
with 222 int ret yds TY. Overall UT was outscored 29.7-28.6 and outgained 415-372 in SEC play TY but
their bend-but-don?t-break defense allowed just 20 ppg in regulation the L/6 (32 ppg 1st 7).
UT has had an all-or-nothing approach to the bowls the last few yrs with huge blowout wins over
TX A&M in ?04 & Michigan in ?01, but blowout losses to Clem & Maryland in B2B Peach Bowls in ?02
& ?03. The Vols finished with a loss in the SEC Championship but had a successful 9 win season with
a New Year?s Day bowl bid. Highly respected UT OC Cutcliffe was named HC of Duke and may not
coach the Vols in the bowl. Wisc has covered the L/3 vs the SEC on NY?s Day but Tenn did finish on a
7-3-2 ATS run while facing 10 bowl eligible teams. The Vols running game & defense improved as the
season progressed making them the more balanced team and the choice here.
FORECAST: TENNESSEE 35 WISCONSIN 24 RATING: 3★
This will be the 5th meeting overall (2-2) & a rematch of the ?03 Independence Bowl which Arkansas won
27-14 (-2?) despite being outgained 407-385. Mizzou is 10-14 in bowls & lost 40-27 vs Texas in their only Cotton
Bowl appearance. This will also be the Tigers? 1st NYD bowl S/?70 (lost 10-3 vs PSU). Ark is 11-21-3 in bowls,
including 3-6-1 (1-2 ATS) in the Cotton Bowl. The Razorbacks are on a 3-12 SU & 4-11 ATS run in bowls S/?79
are 1-7 SU & 2-6 ATS on NYD. Pinkel is 2-2 in bowls (2-1 SU & ATS as HC w/MO). Ark interim HC Herring will
be making his HC debut. Both schools sold their allotment of tickets & with the strong recruiting ties for Ark
in TX along with the home of the Big XII for MO the crowd will be a full house at 50/50. Mizzou has faced 6
bowl caliber tms going 5-2 SU & ATS, outscoring opp?s on avg 37-27 & outgaining them on avg 465-364. Ark
was 3-4 SU & 4-3 ATS vs their 7 bowl caliber opps, outgaining them on avg 432-408, but were outscored on
avg 34-31. Both tms played Ole Miss, winning & covering, but Ark only all?d 294 yds & Mizzou gave up 534.
The Tigers have 7 seniors starters with 18 upperclassmen (82%) in starting roles while the Razorbacks start
10 seniors & 17 upperclassmen (77%). Mizzou was 4-0 ATS as an AF TY & Ark is 7-2 ATS as an AD. Ark will
have 8 more days of preparation as MO last played in the Big XII Title gm on Dec 1st.
Missouri was just one gm away from a Nat?l Title shot, but lost to OU for the 2nd time in one yr (only tm that
has beat them all ssn) & was bypassed by the BCS accepting the Cotton Bowl invite ungraciously. Missouri &
Ohio St are the only 2 schools in IA whose losses came vs BCS tms, yet the Tigers are not in the BCS? If you
take away the gms vs OU, Mizzou has dropped 36+ on every opp. Heisman finalist QB Daniel had a stellar Jr
season as he threw for at least 300 yds in 8 gms (62%) & is 4th in the NCAA in ttl off (343 ypg). Jeremy Maclin
broke an NCAA record for the most ttl yds in one ssn by a Fr with 2,713. He is 35% of the Tigers? total yardage.
John Mackey runner-up Rucker along with Coffman are the best set of TE?s in the nation. The OL avg 6?4? 310
with 2 senior starters. The DL avg 6?3? 280 with 1 senior starter. The DL is the strength of the D all?g just 101
ypg (3.3) over the L/9 gms. They are led by Sr DT Lorenzo Williams & Jr DE Sulak. The secondary suffered
a big blow with the loss of Sr Pig Brown in late Oct, but does have 5 of 8 upperclassmen in the 2 deep & is
ranked #35 in the pass eff D allowing 262 ypg (62%) with an 18-16 ratio. K Wolfert is a ex-diver on the Mizzou
swim tm & has had an outstanding ssn. Super KR/PR Maclin is a threat to take it all the way on every touch.
Missouri is ranked #2 on offense, #25 on defense & #71 on ST?s (#115 in net punting, 30.9).
HC Nutt?s job was on the line well before the ssn started with all of the offssn drama surrounding the
transfer of former QB Mustain and the other Springdale players. When the Hogs started the ssn 0-3 in SEC
play, planes flew over Ark?s stadium during gms calling for his ouster. The tm led by junior RB?s McFadden &
Jones stuck together and fully supported their HC and won 5 of their L/6 gms including a huge upset of #1
LSU in 3OT to earn a NY?s Day bowl bid. Ark?s offense is #12 in our rankings. Two-time Heisman runner-up
McFadden wasn?t 100% for much of the ssn & was held to 43 yds in their loss to Aub, but tied an NCAA
record with 321 rush yds vs SCar and took nearly half of the snaps from center vs LSU (206 rush, 3 TD).
Jones was inj?d vs Tenn & missed all but 1 snap vs Miss St, but still reached 1,000. QB Dick was solid TY,
but not spectacular with a much improved TD/int ratio (LY 9-6). Dick was hampered by a banged up WR
corps with top WR Monk inj?d in the pressn and not returning until the L/6 gms. Starting WR Johnson missed
2 gms and both Monk & Johnson didn?t get much practice time all yr with the coaches holding them out
to keep them healthy for the gms. The OL is led by Rimington Trophy winner Jonathan Luigs and all?d just
10 sks (3.6%) & the tm finished #3 in the NCAA in rush (297 ypg, 6.2). Ark?s D is #49 in our rankings with
the DL solidifying midssn after Harrison ret?d from susp and settled in at his more natural DT position. Ark
allowed 147 rush ypg (3.8) and finished #5 in our pass D rankings all?g 211 ypg (46%) with a 21-19 ratio
vs a tough opposing slate of QB?s. CB Grant led the SEC in PD after moving from FS midssn.
This is a rematch of our 2003 Bowl Game of the Year as Ark (-2?) won 27-14. Missouri was the team
left out of the BCS mix and certainly will use this venue to prove they belonged. Arkansas knocked off the
#1 team in the country in their last game and then struggled to find a HC before luring Petrino from the
Falcons. Missouri has edges on both offense and defense and outgained bowl opponents by 101 ypg while
going 5-2 ATS. Missouri?s run defense is stout enough to slow the powerful Razorback rush attack and QB
Daniel knows that Ark all?d the pass attacks of Alabama and Kentucky to both put up 40+ points. FORECAST: Missouri 41 Arkansas 30 RATING: 4★
This is a rematch of the ?02 Outback Bowl which Mich won 38-30 (-1), the only prior meeting between
these 2 powers. The Capital One was hoping to get 9-3 Illinois with HC Zook facing his former team, but
instead will host Lloyd Carr?s retirement party. Michigan leads the NCAA with their 33rd straight post season
gm while Florida has played 17 in a row (3rd longest). This is the Gators? 5th trip to the Capital One Bowl
(2-2 SU) with their last appearance in ?99 (37-34 loss to Mich St, -2?) while this is UM?s 4th appearance
(2-1 SU & 1-2 ATS). Though Michigan should bring some fans, UF should have a large crowd edge. UF HC
Meyer will be trying to win his 5th straight bowl (4-0 ATS) after LY?s trouncing of #1 ranked Ohio St in the
BCS Title gm as a 7? pt dog. Meyer is 2-0 ATS as a bowl favorite (both at Utah). Carr is 5-7 SU & 4-8 ATS
in bowls (2-3 as bowl dog) & LY suffered a blowout loss to USC in the Rose Bowl (+1). UM has 8 senior
starters and 15 upperclassmen in starting roles while UF has just 6 senior starters and 11 upperclassmen.
UF is 3-2 SU & ATS on the road TY, but just 2-9 ATS as an AF under Meyer. UM has faced 8 bowl elig
tms (5-3 SU & 3-4-1 ATS) with an avg score of 22-22 while being outgained by them 371-326. UF faced
9 bowl elig tms and outscored those tms 43-27 and outgained foes 447-370. Our rankings show UM with
the tougher schedule overall (#18-35). UM last played on Nov 17 while UF played on Nov 24.
#5 Michigan began ?07 with National Championship expectations as they returned 4 of the NCAA?s best players
in QB Henne, RB Hart, WR Manningham and OT Long. Their shocking loss in the opener to IAA champ App St not
only dashed those lofty dreams but it also opened the floodgates for what proved to be 1 of the NCAA?s wackiest
ssns ever. The opener was also the last time that all of their stars played a full gm as Henne missed parts of 8
gms (knee & shoulder inj?s) while RB Hart missed 3 due to a nagging ankle inj. True frosh Mallett started 4 gms
(3-1 SU & ATS) but struggled with control (5 int & 10 fmbl?s w/5 lost). Despite the inj, Hart rushed for 100+ in 8
of his 9 gms played and will finally be 100% here. Biletnikoff finalist Manningham was in Carr?s doghouse due to
inconsistent play. Lombardi finalist Long was the steadiest performer on an OL which started 6 different combos.
Overall UM finished with our #47 off. After getting blown out by Oregon, UM rallied to win their next 8 gms thanks
to their D which all?d just 15 ppg and 275 ypg during the streak. The Wolves had 1 of the nation?s top D?s in ?06 but
had to replace 7 starters incl 5 NFL DC?s. They struggled once again vs spread offenses which featured mobile
QB?s allowing 30 ppg and 421 ypg to App St, Oregon & IL. Crable led NCAA LB?s in tfl and was the only true star
of the defense that ranked #7 overall ST?s were rarely special as K Gingell had 2 FG?s blk?d vs App St which cost
them the gm. P Mesko was a standout vs OSU with 12 punts for a 45.9 avg in foul weather (40.1 net).
UF?s 2006 Nat?l Champ high started to wear off late Sept when the Gators were almost upset by Ole
Miss then the next week Aub upset the Gators in the Swamp as a 17? pt dog ending their 18 gm home win
streak. The following wk, UF outplayed LSU, but lost in Baton Rouge for Meyer?s 1st B2B losses at Florida
(just 2nd time in career). QB Tebow suffered a shldr inj vs UK, and was unable to run vs rival UGA which
led to the Gators? final loss of the ssn knocking them out of the SEC Title hunt. Heisman-Winner Tebow set
an NCAA record becoming the only player in history with 20+ pass & rush TD?s in a ssn. Tebow is their #1
offensive weapon (72%) as the tm?s top rusher and finished #2 in the NCAA in pass efficiency. Tebow suffered
a brkn hand vs FSU but is expected to be 100% here. Tebow?s top receiver Harvin missed 2 gms and
was forced to fill in at RB finishing as the #2 rusher. Tebow?s mobility helped the OL allow just 12 sks and
the tm rushed for 198 ypg (5.2). The Gators finished with our #1 offense. UF?s defense ret?d just 2 starters
from ?06 and finished #42 overall in our rankings. The soft spot is the secondary which features 2 true frosh
starters (CB Haden & FS Wright) and finished #68 in our pass D rankings allowing 249 ypg (59%) with a
16-9 ratio. The rush D finished #10 in the NCAA allowing 99 ypg (3.0). UF has a large edge on ST?s (#18-98)
with returnman James & a net punt avg of 38.6 (#9 in NCAA).
Florida won the ?06 BCS Champ with a coach who is 4-0 in bowls facing a Michigan squad that lost
its L/2 with a coach that has lost 4 straight bowls. Now let?s look a little deeper. The checklist shows that
Michigan matches up fairly evenly and they were a Top 10 team to start the year but were riddled with injuries
to their offense skill players. They will now finally be healthy and can keep this game close. Intangibles
favor the Wolves playing there final game for HC Carr against the Gators who expected, at worst, a BCS
Sugar Bowl trip as SEC Champs. This game is eerily similar to the ?05 Capital One Bowl where a seemingly
undermatched Wisconsin squad beat Arkansas 24-10 as 10 point dog in Barry Alvarez?s final game. FORECAST: MICHIGAN (+) 31 Florida 35 RATING: 1★
1st matchup. This is UVA?s 5th bowl appearance under Groh, and the Cavs are 7-9 SU & 7-8-1 ATS overall
in bowls. TT is 9-20-1 SU in bowls & is playing in their 8th straight post ssn gm, all under HC Leach (4-3
SU & 3-4 ATS). This will be UVA?s 2nd appearance in the Gator Bowl (lost to OK 48-14, -2 in ?91). TT hasn?t
won a NYD bowl S/?54 (Gator Bowl) going 0-3 SU & 0-2 ATS since. The Raiders are 2-1 in the Gator Bowl
but this is their 1st appearance S/?73. The Cavs have not played a NYD bowl since they lost to BC 31-13 in
the ?94 Carquest Bowl. UVA has faced 5 bowl caliber tms going 4-1 SU & 3-2 ATS while outgaining those
opp?s 335-317 but were outscored 21-20 with 3 one pt wins. TT has faced 6 bowl caliber tms going 2-4 SU
& ATS, avg 510 ypg, outgaining foes by 59 ypg but being outscored 36-32. The Cavs have 7 seniors and 15
upperclassmen (68%) in the starting lineup while TT has just 4 senior starters & 10 upperclassmen (45%).
UVA plays their home games on grass & was 6-4 ATS on it & has the surface edge over TT who plays on
turf (3-7 ATS on grass). The Cavs are just 9-15 ATS as an AD under Groh but went 3-0 TY. TT was 3-1 ATS
as an AF TY. TT should have the fan edge here as they have sold their allotment of 12,000+ while UVA still
had 5,000 tickets remaining and their fans generally don?t travel to far away bowls.
TT is known for its potent offense that scores at will as HC Leach has that kind of persona. The
Red Raiders did return to form this year (42 ppg) from an off that avg ?d 10 pgg less in ?06 (prior to the
bowl). TT dropped 34+ on 10 opponents TY (83%). TT was 6-1 & ranked #22, but finished 2-3. They did
beat OU (w/o QB Bradford) to end the regular ssn & are the only Big XII tm to be bowl elig every year
since the league was formed in ?96. For the 1st time in 6 yrs, TT had the same QB start for 2 straight
yrs. Harrell is #1 in the NCAA in pass yds, pass ypg & pass TD?s. TT however is ranked #119 in rush off
avg 61 ypg. Biletnikoff Winner WR Crabtree (1st FR named AFCA AA since Herschel Walker in ?80) set
a Fr record with 21 TD (shattered old record of 14). He leads the nation in rec & rec yds & has eleven
100+ yd gms (two 200+). Sr WR Amendola was overshadowed, but his veteran leadership is invaluable.
The OL avg 6?6?? 331 with NO seniors up front, making them inexperienced, but also the tallest &
largest OL in the country. The DL avg 6?4?? 262 and again with NO seniors starters. DC Setencich was
let go after Tech all?d 49 pts & 610 yds to OkSt. McNeill has filled as interim DC & since then Tech has
allowed 25 ppg & 348 ypg. The Red Raiders rank #25 in our pass eff def allowing 196 ypg (55%) with
a 19-10 ratio. Texas Tech is ranked #3 on offense, #47 on defense & #15 on sp tms.
UVA started the ssn with an embarrassing 23-3 loss to WY with many wanting Groh fired. However, the
Cavs turned it around and won 7 straight finishing the season 9-3 with Groh being named the ACC COY &
getting his contract extended. UVA played many close games that could have gone either way. A win here
would give UVA 10 wins in a ssn for the first time S/?89. The Cavs lost their top TB Peerman midseason
w/a leg inj (#1 ACC prior to inj) and shuffled around several players until Simpson finally emerged as the
#1. The OL avg 6?5? 301 with 2 Sr starters, paving the way for 126 ypg rush (3.4) but did allow 30 sks.
The key to this game for UVA is trying to contain the nation?s #1 passing offense with their #22 ranked D.
Hendricks Winner & ACC Def POY DE Long is #3 in the nation in sks and has that first-step quickness to
apply pressure on TT. Fitzgerald is capable of creating havoc on the other side. The DL avg 6?4? 278 is only
all?g 113 ypg rush (3.0) and ranks #6 in the nation with 40 sks. LB Sintim is #2 on the team in sacks and
also has the capability of applying a lot of pressure. UVA?s secondary has struggled, all?g 210 ypg (57%)
with a 15-11 ratio ranking #72 in our pass eff D. They now have to try to defend a team that produced two
1,000+ yd receivers. The Cavs only have our #61 ST ranking but they did have one of the top punters in
the country in Weigand with a 45.5 avg but the tm had 3 P?s blk?d bringing the net to 35.2.
Ironically both of these tms had huge comebacks to beat Minnesota in their previous bowl win
(sorry Glenn Mason). TT?s spread offense is led by Graham Harrell, who passed for 5,000+ yds and
freshman WR Crabtree (1861 yds & 21 TD) and they?ll receive most of the pregame hype. Virginia?s
superstar is DL Long (Howie?s son) who is a one man wrecking crew and this grass field will help slow
the TT offense. The Cavs will quietly prep for this game as the underdog and will keep this one close
against the favored Red Raiders.
FORECAST: VIRGINIA (+) 28 Texas Tech 30 RATING: 2★
The Trojans have won 10 of 12 meetings outscoring the Illini by a 26-10 avg with the last game
in ?96. Illinois makes their 1st bowl appearance S/?01 (Sugar Bowl) and 1st Rose Bowl S/?83. Since
?82 the Illini are 3-8 SU in bowls and Zook went 0-2 SU & ATS on NY?s day as Florida?s HC. USC is
making an unprecedented 6th straight BCS Bowl which also happens to be their 32nd Rose Bowl
bid overall. The Trojans are 66-6 their L/72 gms under Carroll with their losses by a combined 20 pts
and are 4-2 SU & ATS in the post season. USC faced 5 bowl caliber teams winning 4 of 5 SU (3-2
ATS) outscoring them by a 27-15 avg. Illinois has faced 9 bowl eligible tms going 6-3 SU & 5-4 ATS
outscoring them 27-22 and outgaining them 390-388. USC is playing in their hometown while Illini fans
are expected to flock to Pasadena. USC went 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS on the road TY and IL went 4-2 SU
& ATS including their upset of #1 Ohio St. The Trojans have 10 senior starters and 19 upperclassmen
while bowl hungry Illinois has 8 seniors among 15 upperclassmen. Since the 2nd gm of ?03 USC has
been favored in every reg ssn game except vs Oregon TY. The Trojans are 4-11 ATS as DD favorites.
IL is 4-2 ATS as an AD L/2Y. IL wrapped up its season Nov 17th while USC finished on Dec 1st.
Ron Zook came to Illinois with the reputation of being a big time recruiter (21 of 22 starters on Florida?s
National Championship tm) but he entered the 2007 season with a 27-33 career record. Zook?s young
squad pulled the NCAA?s largest turnaround in his 3rd year in Champaign going from a 2-10 record to
9-3. The Illini run a no-huddle spread power option which suits the skills of QB Williams. Williams is very
mobile but an unpolished passer, in fact if you take out his 4 TD pass performance vs OSU he had a 9-10
ratio TY. Early in the year Zook frequently substituted Williams with backup McGee who is considered a
better passer but the coach stuck with Juice and was rewarded. Big Ten Offensive POY RB Mendenhall
led the conf in rushing. Frosh WR Benn, who was recruited by USC, led the Illini in receiving despite rarely
being 100% TY due to a shoulder injury. The OL was 1 of the NCAA?s best paving the way for 5.7 ypc with
just 11 sks all?d (3.8%). The offense is #19 in our ranking while the D is #20. The Illini defense is led by AA
LB Leman who was #3 in the conf in tkls. The DL avg?s 6?5? 277 and had 38 sks with 3.3 rush ypc all?d.
Illinois ranks #42 in pass eff D led by cover CB Davis who was the only soph to be a Thorpe semifinalist.
The ST?s were a much improved unit (#62) as K Reda hit 3 FG?s from 50+ and the team blk?d 2 kicks.
Trojans QB Booty looked to be the Heisman frontrunner early but a broken finger vs Stanford (4
int in the 2H) caused him to miss the next 3. In Booty?s absence, bkup Sanchez took over leading
USC to victories in 2 of 3 starts. Booty returned & despite accuracy issues early, put together an
impressive performance vs ASU (375 yds, 67%, 4-0 ratio) boosting his confidence to end the ssn.
RB Washington led in rushing for the 2nd straight ssn while rFr Johnson & true frosh McKnight were
forced to carry the remainder of the load after the transfer of Moody (#2 rush LY) and a ssn ending inj
to Gable (#3 rush LY). The WR position was the biggest ? TY after the departure of Jarrett & Smith to
the NFL. The new receiving trio of Turner, Ausberry & Hazelton struggled early in the ssn as TE Davis
led the tm in rec, rec yds & rec TD?s winning the John Mackey Award. The OL is loaded with talent &
size (6?5? 303) led by AA LT Baker who helped pave the way for 185 ypg rush (4.7) while all?g 15 sks
(3.6%). USC is ranked #10 on offense. The DL avg 6?5? 286 all?g just 79 ypg rush (2.4) led by DT Ellis
and DE Jackson. The LB corps is one of the best in the nation with Maualuga, Rivers & Cushing. The
secondary all?d 180 ypg (54%) with an 8-10 ratio ranking #4 in pass eff D. The def finished #2 overall.
USC struggled on ST?s (#100) as they allowed 3 blk?d P?s and a KR TD.
It is business as usual as USC is playing in their 3rd straight Rose Bowl and 6th straight BCS appearance.
Illinois is thrilled to be selected by the BCS and their season is a success just by landing in this
game. The Trojans have a chip on their shoulder and are out to prove that they are a national power. The
defense has at least 9 players who will be playing on Sundays and already faced a pair of mobile QB?s
in Dixon and Locker. They held Oreg (w/ Dixon) 167 yds under their season avg and held Washington
204 yards under theirs. USC?s HC Carroll against UI HC Zook is one of the biggest bowl mismatches.
FORECAST: USC 34 ILLINOIS 13 RATING: 2★
Hawaii ended the reg ssn with a perfect 12-0 record en route to becoming the only undefeated team in
IA. The Warriors own the nation?s longest winning streak at 13 gms & have won 22 of their L/23 contests.
The Warriors are playing in their first BCS bowl (the WAC?s 2nd in as many yrs) & are making their 5th
bowl appearance in 6 years. Three-time WAC COY (?99, ?06, ?07) Jones has guided the Warriors to 5 of
their 7 bowls & is 4-1 SU & 3-2 ATS. UGA is playing in their 11th straight bowl & 7th consec bowl under
Richt (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) and LY upset #14 VT in a 31-24 come-from-behind win in the Chick-fil-A Bowl.
This is UGA?s 43rd bowl appearance (#6 in NCAA, 23-16-3 record) and their 9th Sugar Bowl (3-5 SU). In
their last Sugar Bowl trip, UGA was upset by WV (-6) 38-35, a gm in which the Dawgs trailed 28-0 early
2Q. UH is 3-0 SU & 1-2 ATS vs bowl tms TY outscoring them 35-28 and outgaining them 517-357 while
completing 73% of its pass atts. UGA has faced a much tougher schedule (#49-118) with a 7-2 SU & 6-3
ATS record vs 9 bowl elig tms. UGA outscored those tms 30-22 & outgained them 372-333. The Warriors
are 1-3 SU (3-1 ATS) vs SEC squads S/?87. UGA sold over 22,000 tickets to this gm as of presstime and
will have a huge crowd edge with possibly less than 1,500 fans making the long trip from Hawaii. UGA is
4-1 SU & 3-2 ATS on the road TY while UH is 5-0 SU & 2-3 ATS. UH has 12 senior & 21 of their starters
are upperclassmen while UGA has just 7 seniors & 13 upperclassmen in starting roles.
UH QB Brennan, the WAC Off POY, directs our #8 rated off & is the NCAA?s career leader with 131
TD passes. Brennan has passed for over 4,000 yds in each of his 3 ssns at UH. TY he threw for over
400 yds & 4 or more TD?s in 6 of UH?s 12 gms with ssn-highs of 548 yds & 6 TD. In the Warriors? final
2 gms vs their biggest opps, Brennan passed for 937 yds (80%) & 10 TD, including a school-record 20
consec comp vs Wash. UH?s WR trio of Bess, Grice-Mullen & Rivers have each surpassed the 1,000
yd plateau TY (ties NCAA record). UH also had at least 2 WR?s with 100+ yds in a gm 8 times TY
including 4 gms with three 100+ yd receivers. UH?s OL avg 6?2? 293 & all 5 have started every game
TY. The unit is primarily a pass-protection front in the Run-&-Shoot (606 pass plays vs 261 rush) &
all?d 26 sks while aiding a running game that avg 3.6 ypc. UH is known for its offense but it features
our #61 rated D which has been flying under the radar. UH is #9 in the NCAA in sks (38), #11 in int
(19) & #5 in 3rd down conv (28.7%). UH?s DL avg 6?3?, 281 & DE Veikune leads the WAC in sks. The
LB duo of Elimimian & Leonard both eclipsed the century mark in tkls while the veteran secondary
all?d 217 ypg (57%) with a 15-19 ratio earning our #23 overall pass eff D ranking. UH is #55 in our ST
ratings & PK Kelly hit two HUGE kicks to keep UH?s undefeated season & BCS hopes alive.
UGA?s young offense (#41) is led by soph QB Stafford who made great strides after a rocky true
frosh ssn improving his TD/int ratio from 7-13 in ?06. However, the team?s 6 gm win streak to end the
ssn can partially be attributed to RB Moreno who started the L/6 after Brown & Lumpkin were inj?d.
Brown ret?d as a bkup in the L/3 & led the tm vs GT with 139. Lumpkin (?06?s top rusher with 798, 4.9)
may be available for the bowl. The WR?s were steady but unspectacular for most of the ssn with less
dropped passes than ?06. The OL starts 3 true frosh and all?d just 15 sks (4.4%) while opening holes
for 179 rush ypg (4.6). UGA?s #15 D was solid vs the run all?g 120 ypg (3.4) & had a solid pass rush
with DT Atkins collecting 29 qbh & DE Howard having 33. The safeties were a little banged up TY, so
CB Allen finished as the #2 tklr and UGA finished #41 in our pass D rankings all?g 205 ypg (59%) with
an 11-11 ratio. They will need their top 6 DB?s (at least) to be healthy for the bowl, but UGA did hold
the best QB they faced, Tebow (though stationary due to shldr inj) to 236 pass yds and 1 TD pass.
Though UGA is happy to make a BCS bowl, this is potentially a lose-lose situation for the Dawgs
because if they beat UH, they ?only? beat a WAC tm, and if they lose, it will be a replay of LY?s Fiesta
Bowl. Hawaii is thrilled with a BCS appearance and does have hope from fellow WAC member Boise?s
Fiesta Bowl win. Georgia however will use that same upset from LY to keep themselves focused and
HC Richt has made a point that their loss to WV in 2005 catapulted the Mountaineers program. A
focused Georgia team will show you the talent difference between the SEC and the WAC, FORECAST: GEORGIA 43 Hawaii 27 RATING: 2★
27-14 (-2?) despite being outgained 407-385. Mizzou is 10-14 in bowls & lost 40-27 vs Texas in their only Cotton
Bowl appearance. This will also be the Tigers? 1st NYD bowl S/?70 (lost 10-3 vs PSU). Ark is 11-21-3 in bowls,
including 3-6-1 (1-2 ATS) in the Cotton Bowl. The Razorbacks are on a 3-12 SU & 4-11 ATS run in bowls S/?79
are 1-7 SU & 2-6 ATS on NYD. Pinkel is 2-2 in bowls (2-1 SU & ATS as HC w/MO). Ark interim HC Herring will
be making his HC debut. Both schools sold their allotment of tickets & with the strong recruiting ties for Ark
in TX along with the home of the Big XII for MO the crowd will be a full house at 50/50. Mizzou has faced 6
bowl caliber tms going 5-2 SU & ATS, outscoring opp?s on avg 37-27 & outgaining them on avg 465-364. Ark
was 3-4 SU & 4-3 ATS vs their 7 bowl caliber opps, outgaining them on avg 432-408, but were outscored on
avg 34-31. Both tms played Ole Miss, winning & covering, but Ark only all?d 294 yds & Mizzou gave up 534.
The Tigers have 7 seniors starters with 18 upperclassmen (82%) in starting roles while the Razorbacks start
10 seniors & 17 upperclassmen (77%). Mizzou was 4-0 ATS as an AF TY & Ark is 7-2 ATS as an AD. Ark will
have 8 more days of preparation as MO last played in the Big XII Title gm on Dec 1st.
Missouri was just one gm away from a Nat?l Title shot, but lost to OU for the 2nd time in one yr (only tm that
has beat them all ssn) & was bypassed by the BCS accepting the Cotton Bowl invite ungraciously. Missouri &
Ohio St are the only 2 schools in IA whose losses came vs BCS tms, yet the Tigers are not in the BCS? If you
take away the gms vs OU, Mizzou has dropped 36+ on every opp. Heisman finalist QB Daniel had a stellar Jr
season as he threw for at least 300 yds in 8 gms (62%) & is 4th in the NCAA in ttl off (343 ypg). Jeremy Maclin
broke an NCAA record for the most ttl yds in one ssn by a Fr with 2,713. He is 35% of the Tigers? total yardage.
John Mackey runner-up Rucker along with Coffman are the best set of TE?s in the nation. The OL avg 6?4? 310
with 2 senior starters. The DL avg 6?3? 280 with 1 senior starter. The DL is the strength of the D all?g just 101
ypg (3.3) over the L/9 gms. They are led by Sr DT Lorenzo Williams & Jr DE Sulak. The secondary suffered
a big blow with the loss of Sr Pig Brown in late Oct, but does have 5 of 8 upperclassmen in the 2 deep & is
ranked #35 in the pass eff D allowing 262 ypg (62%) with an 18-16 ratio. K Wolfert is a ex-diver on the Mizzou
swim tm & has had an outstanding ssn. Super KR/PR Maclin is a threat to take it all the way on every touch.
Missouri is ranked #2 on offense, #25 on defense & #71 on ST?s (#115 in net punting, 30.9).
HC Nutt?s job was on the line well before the ssn started with all of the offssn drama surrounding the
transfer of former QB Mustain and the other Springdale players. When the Hogs started the ssn 0-3 in SEC
play, planes flew over Ark?s stadium during gms calling for his ouster. The tm led by junior RB?s McFadden &
Jones stuck together and fully supported their HC and won 5 of their L/6 gms including a huge upset of #1
LSU in 3OT to earn a NY?s Day bowl bid. Ark?s offense is #12 in our rankings. Two-time Heisman runner-up
McFadden wasn?t 100% for much of the ssn & was held to 43 yds in their loss to Aub, but tied an NCAA
record with 321 rush yds vs SCar and took nearly half of the snaps from center vs LSU (206 rush, 3 TD).
Jones was inj?d vs Tenn & missed all but 1 snap vs Miss St, but still reached 1,000. QB Dick was solid TY,
but not spectacular with a much improved TD/int ratio (LY 9-6). Dick was hampered by a banged up WR
corps with top WR Monk inj?d in the pressn and not returning until the L/6 gms. Starting WR Johnson missed
2 gms and both Monk & Johnson didn?t get much practice time all yr with the coaches holding them out
to keep them healthy for the gms. The OL is led by Rimington Trophy winner Jonathan Luigs and all?d just
10 sks (3.6%) & the tm finished #3 in the NCAA in rush (297 ypg, 6.2). Ark?s D is #49 in our rankings with
the DL solidifying midssn after Harrison ret?d from susp and settled in at his more natural DT position. Ark
allowed 147 rush ypg (3.8) and finished #5 in our pass D rankings all?g 211 ypg (46%) with a 21-19 ratio
vs a tough opposing slate of QB?s. CB Grant led the SEC in PD after moving from FS midssn.
This is a rematch of our 2003 Bowl Game of the Year as Ark (-2?) won 27-14. Missouri was the team
left out of the BCS mix and certainly will use this venue to prove they belonged. Arkansas knocked off the
#1 team in the country in their last game and then struggled to find a HC before luring Petrino from the
Falcons. Missouri has edges on both offense and defense and outgained bowl opponents by 101 ypg while
going 5-2 ATS. Missouri?s run defense is stout enough to slow the powerful Razorback rush attack and QB
Daniel knows that Ark all?d the pass attacks of Alabama and Kentucky to both put up 40+ points. FORECAST: Missouri 41 Arkansas 30 RATING: 4★
This is a rematch of the ?02 Outback Bowl which Mich won 38-30 (-1), the only prior meeting between
these 2 powers. The Capital One was hoping to get 9-3 Illinois with HC Zook facing his former team, but
instead will host Lloyd Carr?s retirement party. Michigan leads the NCAA with their 33rd straight post season
gm while Florida has played 17 in a row (3rd longest). This is the Gators? 5th trip to the Capital One Bowl
(2-2 SU) with their last appearance in ?99 (37-34 loss to Mich St, -2?) while this is UM?s 4th appearance
(2-1 SU & 1-2 ATS). Though Michigan should bring some fans, UF should have a large crowd edge. UF HC
Meyer will be trying to win his 5th straight bowl (4-0 ATS) after LY?s trouncing of #1 ranked Ohio St in the
BCS Title gm as a 7? pt dog. Meyer is 2-0 ATS as a bowl favorite (both at Utah). Carr is 5-7 SU & 4-8 ATS
in bowls (2-3 as bowl dog) & LY suffered a blowout loss to USC in the Rose Bowl (+1). UM has 8 senior
starters and 15 upperclassmen in starting roles while UF has just 6 senior starters and 11 upperclassmen.
UF is 3-2 SU & ATS on the road TY, but just 2-9 ATS as an AF under Meyer. UM has faced 8 bowl elig
tms (5-3 SU & 3-4-1 ATS) with an avg score of 22-22 while being outgained by them 371-326. UF faced
9 bowl elig tms and outscored those tms 43-27 and outgained foes 447-370. Our rankings show UM with
the tougher schedule overall (#18-35). UM last played on Nov 17 while UF played on Nov 24.
#5 Michigan began ?07 with National Championship expectations as they returned 4 of the NCAA?s best players
in QB Henne, RB Hart, WR Manningham and OT Long. Their shocking loss in the opener to IAA champ App St not
only dashed those lofty dreams but it also opened the floodgates for what proved to be 1 of the NCAA?s wackiest
ssns ever. The opener was also the last time that all of their stars played a full gm as Henne missed parts of 8
gms (knee & shoulder inj?s) while RB Hart missed 3 due to a nagging ankle inj. True frosh Mallett started 4 gms
(3-1 SU & ATS) but struggled with control (5 int & 10 fmbl?s w/5 lost). Despite the inj, Hart rushed for 100+ in 8
of his 9 gms played and will finally be 100% here. Biletnikoff finalist Manningham was in Carr?s doghouse due to
inconsistent play. Lombardi finalist Long was the steadiest performer on an OL which started 6 different combos.
Overall UM finished with our #47 off. After getting blown out by Oregon, UM rallied to win their next 8 gms thanks
to their D which all?d just 15 ppg and 275 ypg during the streak. The Wolves had 1 of the nation?s top D?s in ?06 but
had to replace 7 starters incl 5 NFL DC?s. They struggled once again vs spread offenses which featured mobile
QB?s allowing 30 ppg and 421 ypg to App St, Oregon & IL. Crable led NCAA LB?s in tfl and was the only true star
of the defense that ranked #7 overall ST?s were rarely special as K Gingell had 2 FG?s blk?d vs App St which cost
them the gm. P Mesko was a standout vs OSU with 12 punts for a 45.9 avg in foul weather (40.1 net).
UF?s 2006 Nat?l Champ high started to wear off late Sept when the Gators were almost upset by Ole
Miss then the next week Aub upset the Gators in the Swamp as a 17? pt dog ending their 18 gm home win
streak. The following wk, UF outplayed LSU, but lost in Baton Rouge for Meyer?s 1st B2B losses at Florida
(just 2nd time in career). QB Tebow suffered a shldr inj vs UK, and was unable to run vs rival UGA which
led to the Gators? final loss of the ssn knocking them out of the SEC Title hunt. Heisman-Winner Tebow set
an NCAA record becoming the only player in history with 20+ pass & rush TD?s in a ssn. Tebow is their #1
offensive weapon (72%) as the tm?s top rusher and finished #2 in the NCAA in pass efficiency. Tebow suffered
a brkn hand vs FSU but is expected to be 100% here. Tebow?s top receiver Harvin missed 2 gms and
was forced to fill in at RB finishing as the #2 rusher. Tebow?s mobility helped the OL allow just 12 sks and
the tm rushed for 198 ypg (5.2). The Gators finished with our #1 offense. UF?s defense ret?d just 2 starters
from ?06 and finished #42 overall in our rankings. The soft spot is the secondary which features 2 true frosh
starters (CB Haden & FS Wright) and finished #68 in our pass D rankings allowing 249 ypg (59%) with a
16-9 ratio. The rush D finished #10 in the NCAA allowing 99 ypg (3.0). UF has a large edge on ST?s (#18-98)
with returnman James & a net punt avg of 38.6 (#9 in NCAA).
Florida won the ?06 BCS Champ with a coach who is 4-0 in bowls facing a Michigan squad that lost
its L/2 with a coach that has lost 4 straight bowls. Now let?s look a little deeper. The checklist shows that
Michigan matches up fairly evenly and they were a Top 10 team to start the year but were riddled with injuries
to their offense skill players. They will now finally be healthy and can keep this game close. Intangibles
favor the Wolves playing there final game for HC Carr against the Gators who expected, at worst, a BCS
Sugar Bowl trip as SEC Champs. This game is eerily similar to the ?05 Capital One Bowl where a seemingly
undermatched Wisconsin squad beat Arkansas 24-10 as 10 point dog in Barry Alvarez?s final game. FORECAST: MICHIGAN (+) 31 Florida 35 RATING: 1★
1st matchup. This is UVA?s 5th bowl appearance under Groh, and the Cavs are 7-9 SU & 7-8-1 ATS overall
in bowls. TT is 9-20-1 SU in bowls & is playing in their 8th straight post ssn gm, all under HC Leach (4-3
SU & 3-4 ATS). This will be UVA?s 2nd appearance in the Gator Bowl (lost to OK 48-14, -2 in ?91). TT hasn?t
won a NYD bowl S/?54 (Gator Bowl) going 0-3 SU & 0-2 ATS since. The Raiders are 2-1 in the Gator Bowl
but this is their 1st appearance S/?73. The Cavs have not played a NYD bowl since they lost to BC 31-13 in
the ?94 Carquest Bowl. UVA has faced 5 bowl caliber tms going 4-1 SU & 3-2 ATS while outgaining those
opp?s 335-317 but were outscored 21-20 with 3 one pt wins. TT has faced 6 bowl caliber tms going 2-4 SU
& ATS, avg 510 ypg, outgaining foes by 59 ypg but being outscored 36-32. The Cavs have 7 seniors and 15
upperclassmen (68%) in the starting lineup while TT has just 4 senior starters & 10 upperclassmen (45%).
UVA plays their home games on grass & was 6-4 ATS on it & has the surface edge over TT who plays on
turf (3-7 ATS on grass). The Cavs are just 9-15 ATS as an AD under Groh but went 3-0 TY. TT was 3-1 ATS
as an AF TY. TT should have the fan edge here as they have sold their allotment of 12,000+ while UVA still
had 5,000 tickets remaining and their fans generally don?t travel to far away bowls.
TT is known for its potent offense that scores at will as HC Leach has that kind of persona. The
Red Raiders did return to form this year (42 ppg) from an off that avg ?d 10 pgg less in ?06 (prior to the
bowl). TT dropped 34+ on 10 opponents TY (83%). TT was 6-1 & ranked #22, but finished 2-3. They did
beat OU (w/o QB Bradford) to end the regular ssn & are the only Big XII tm to be bowl elig every year
since the league was formed in ?96. For the 1st time in 6 yrs, TT had the same QB start for 2 straight
yrs. Harrell is #1 in the NCAA in pass yds, pass ypg & pass TD?s. TT however is ranked #119 in rush off
avg 61 ypg. Biletnikoff Winner WR Crabtree (1st FR named AFCA AA since Herschel Walker in ?80) set
a Fr record with 21 TD (shattered old record of 14). He leads the nation in rec & rec yds & has eleven
100+ yd gms (two 200+). Sr WR Amendola was overshadowed, but his veteran leadership is invaluable.
The OL avg 6?6?? 331 with NO seniors up front, making them inexperienced, but also the tallest &
largest OL in the country. The DL avg 6?4?? 262 and again with NO seniors starters. DC Setencich was
let go after Tech all?d 49 pts & 610 yds to OkSt. McNeill has filled as interim DC & since then Tech has
allowed 25 ppg & 348 ypg. The Red Raiders rank #25 in our pass eff def allowing 196 ypg (55%) with
a 19-10 ratio. Texas Tech is ranked #3 on offense, #47 on defense & #15 on sp tms.
UVA started the ssn with an embarrassing 23-3 loss to WY with many wanting Groh fired. However, the
Cavs turned it around and won 7 straight finishing the season 9-3 with Groh being named the ACC COY &
getting his contract extended. UVA played many close games that could have gone either way. A win here
would give UVA 10 wins in a ssn for the first time S/?89. The Cavs lost their top TB Peerman midseason
w/a leg inj (#1 ACC prior to inj) and shuffled around several players until Simpson finally emerged as the
#1. The OL avg 6?5? 301 with 2 Sr starters, paving the way for 126 ypg rush (3.4) but did allow 30 sks.
The key to this game for UVA is trying to contain the nation?s #1 passing offense with their #22 ranked D.
Hendricks Winner & ACC Def POY DE Long is #3 in the nation in sks and has that first-step quickness to
apply pressure on TT. Fitzgerald is capable of creating havoc on the other side. The DL avg 6?4? 278 is only
all?g 113 ypg rush (3.0) and ranks #6 in the nation with 40 sks. LB Sintim is #2 on the team in sacks and
also has the capability of applying a lot of pressure. UVA?s secondary has struggled, all?g 210 ypg (57%)
with a 15-11 ratio ranking #72 in our pass eff D. They now have to try to defend a team that produced two
1,000+ yd receivers. The Cavs only have our #61 ST ranking but they did have one of the top punters in
the country in Weigand with a 45.5 avg but the tm had 3 P?s blk?d bringing the net to 35.2.
Ironically both of these tms had huge comebacks to beat Minnesota in their previous bowl win
(sorry Glenn Mason). TT?s spread offense is led by Graham Harrell, who passed for 5,000+ yds and
freshman WR Crabtree (1861 yds & 21 TD) and they?ll receive most of the pregame hype. Virginia?s
superstar is DL Long (Howie?s son) who is a one man wrecking crew and this grass field will help slow
the TT offense. The Cavs will quietly prep for this game as the underdog and will keep this one close
against the favored Red Raiders.
FORECAST: VIRGINIA (+) 28 Texas Tech 30 RATING: 2★
The Trojans have won 10 of 12 meetings outscoring the Illini by a 26-10 avg with the last game
in ?96. Illinois makes their 1st bowl appearance S/?01 (Sugar Bowl) and 1st Rose Bowl S/?83. Since
?82 the Illini are 3-8 SU in bowls and Zook went 0-2 SU & ATS on NY?s day as Florida?s HC. USC is
making an unprecedented 6th straight BCS Bowl which also happens to be their 32nd Rose Bowl
bid overall. The Trojans are 66-6 their L/72 gms under Carroll with their losses by a combined 20 pts
and are 4-2 SU & ATS in the post season. USC faced 5 bowl caliber teams winning 4 of 5 SU (3-2
ATS) outscoring them by a 27-15 avg. Illinois has faced 9 bowl eligible tms going 6-3 SU & 5-4 ATS
outscoring them 27-22 and outgaining them 390-388. USC is playing in their hometown while Illini fans
are expected to flock to Pasadena. USC went 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS on the road TY and IL went 4-2 SU
& ATS including their upset of #1 Ohio St. The Trojans have 10 senior starters and 19 upperclassmen
while bowl hungry Illinois has 8 seniors among 15 upperclassmen. Since the 2nd gm of ?03 USC has
been favored in every reg ssn game except vs Oregon TY. The Trojans are 4-11 ATS as DD favorites.
IL is 4-2 ATS as an AD L/2Y. IL wrapped up its season Nov 17th while USC finished on Dec 1st.
Ron Zook came to Illinois with the reputation of being a big time recruiter (21 of 22 starters on Florida?s
National Championship tm) but he entered the 2007 season with a 27-33 career record. Zook?s young
squad pulled the NCAA?s largest turnaround in his 3rd year in Champaign going from a 2-10 record to
9-3. The Illini run a no-huddle spread power option which suits the skills of QB Williams. Williams is very
mobile but an unpolished passer, in fact if you take out his 4 TD pass performance vs OSU he had a 9-10
ratio TY. Early in the year Zook frequently substituted Williams with backup McGee who is considered a
better passer but the coach stuck with Juice and was rewarded. Big Ten Offensive POY RB Mendenhall
led the conf in rushing. Frosh WR Benn, who was recruited by USC, led the Illini in receiving despite rarely
being 100% TY due to a shoulder injury. The OL was 1 of the NCAA?s best paving the way for 5.7 ypc with
just 11 sks all?d (3.8%). The offense is #19 in our ranking while the D is #20. The Illini defense is led by AA
LB Leman who was #3 in the conf in tkls. The DL avg?s 6?5? 277 and had 38 sks with 3.3 rush ypc all?d.
Illinois ranks #42 in pass eff D led by cover CB Davis who was the only soph to be a Thorpe semifinalist.
The ST?s were a much improved unit (#62) as K Reda hit 3 FG?s from 50+ and the team blk?d 2 kicks.
Trojans QB Booty looked to be the Heisman frontrunner early but a broken finger vs Stanford (4
int in the 2H) caused him to miss the next 3. In Booty?s absence, bkup Sanchez took over leading
USC to victories in 2 of 3 starts. Booty returned & despite accuracy issues early, put together an
impressive performance vs ASU (375 yds, 67%, 4-0 ratio) boosting his confidence to end the ssn.
RB Washington led in rushing for the 2nd straight ssn while rFr Johnson & true frosh McKnight were
forced to carry the remainder of the load after the transfer of Moody (#2 rush LY) and a ssn ending inj
to Gable (#3 rush LY). The WR position was the biggest ? TY after the departure of Jarrett & Smith to
the NFL. The new receiving trio of Turner, Ausberry & Hazelton struggled early in the ssn as TE Davis
led the tm in rec, rec yds & rec TD?s winning the John Mackey Award. The OL is loaded with talent &
size (6?5? 303) led by AA LT Baker who helped pave the way for 185 ypg rush (4.7) while all?g 15 sks
(3.6%). USC is ranked #10 on offense. The DL avg 6?5? 286 all?g just 79 ypg rush (2.4) led by DT Ellis
and DE Jackson. The LB corps is one of the best in the nation with Maualuga, Rivers & Cushing. The
secondary all?d 180 ypg (54%) with an 8-10 ratio ranking #4 in pass eff D. The def finished #2 overall.
USC struggled on ST?s (#100) as they allowed 3 blk?d P?s and a KR TD.
It is business as usual as USC is playing in their 3rd straight Rose Bowl and 6th straight BCS appearance.
Illinois is thrilled to be selected by the BCS and their season is a success just by landing in this
game. The Trojans have a chip on their shoulder and are out to prove that they are a national power. The
defense has at least 9 players who will be playing on Sundays and already faced a pair of mobile QB?s
in Dixon and Locker. They held Oreg (w/ Dixon) 167 yds under their season avg and held Washington
204 yards under theirs. USC?s HC Carroll against UI HC Zook is one of the biggest bowl mismatches.
FORECAST: USC 34 ILLINOIS 13 RATING: 2★
Hawaii ended the reg ssn with a perfect 12-0 record en route to becoming the only undefeated team in
IA. The Warriors own the nation?s longest winning streak at 13 gms & have won 22 of their L/23 contests.
The Warriors are playing in their first BCS bowl (the WAC?s 2nd in as many yrs) & are making their 5th
bowl appearance in 6 years. Three-time WAC COY (?99, ?06, ?07) Jones has guided the Warriors to 5 of
their 7 bowls & is 4-1 SU & 3-2 ATS. UGA is playing in their 11th straight bowl & 7th consec bowl under
Richt (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) and LY upset #14 VT in a 31-24 come-from-behind win in the Chick-fil-A Bowl.
This is UGA?s 43rd bowl appearance (#6 in NCAA, 23-16-3 record) and their 9th Sugar Bowl (3-5 SU). In
their last Sugar Bowl trip, UGA was upset by WV (-6) 38-35, a gm in which the Dawgs trailed 28-0 early
2Q. UH is 3-0 SU & 1-2 ATS vs bowl tms TY outscoring them 35-28 and outgaining them 517-357 while
completing 73% of its pass atts. UGA has faced a much tougher schedule (#49-118) with a 7-2 SU & 6-3
ATS record vs 9 bowl elig tms. UGA outscored those tms 30-22 & outgained them 372-333. The Warriors
are 1-3 SU (3-1 ATS) vs SEC squads S/?87. UGA sold over 22,000 tickets to this gm as of presstime and
will have a huge crowd edge with possibly less than 1,500 fans making the long trip from Hawaii. UGA is
4-1 SU & 3-2 ATS on the road TY while UH is 5-0 SU & 2-3 ATS. UH has 12 senior & 21 of their starters
are upperclassmen while UGA has just 7 seniors & 13 upperclassmen in starting roles.
UH QB Brennan, the WAC Off POY, directs our #8 rated off & is the NCAA?s career leader with 131
TD passes. Brennan has passed for over 4,000 yds in each of his 3 ssns at UH. TY he threw for over
400 yds & 4 or more TD?s in 6 of UH?s 12 gms with ssn-highs of 548 yds & 6 TD. In the Warriors? final
2 gms vs their biggest opps, Brennan passed for 937 yds (80%) & 10 TD, including a school-record 20
consec comp vs Wash. UH?s WR trio of Bess, Grice-Mullen & Rivers have each surpassed the 1,000
yd plateau TY (ties NCAA record). UH also had at least 2 WR?s with 100+ yds in a gm 8 times TY
including 4 gms with three 100+ yd receivers. UH?s OL avg 6?2? 293 & all 5 have started every game
TY. The unit is primarily a pass-protection front in the Run-&-Shoot (606 pass plays vs 261 rush) &
all?d 26 sks while aiding a running game that avg 3.6 ypc. UH is known for its offense but it features
our #61 rated D which has been flying under the radar. UH is #9 in the NCAA in sks (38), #11 in int
(19) & #5 in 3rd down conv (28.7%). UH?s DL avg 6?3?, 281 & DE Veikune leads the WAC in sks. The
LB duo of Elimimian & Leonard both eclipsed the century mark in tkls while the veteran secondary
all?d 217 ypg (57%) with a 15-19 ratio earning our #23 overall pass eff D ranking. UH is #55 in our ST
ratings & PK Kelly hit two HUGE kicks to keep UH?s undefeated season & BCS hopes alive.
UGA?s young offense (#41) is led by soph QB Stafford who made great strides after a rocky true
frosh ssn improving his TD/int ratio from 7-13 in ?06. However, the team?s 6 gm win streak to end the
ssn can partially be attributed to RB Moreno who started the L/6 after Brown & Lumpkin were inj?d.
Brown ret?d as a bkup in the L/3 & led the tm vs GT with 139. Lumpkin (?06?s top rusher with 798, 4.9)
may be available for the bowl. The WR?s were steady but unspectacular for most of the ssn with less
dropped passes than ?06. The OL starts 3 true frosh and all?d just 15 sks (4.4%) while opening holes
for 179 rush ypg (4.6). UGA?s #15 D was solid vs the run all?g 120 ypg (3.4) & had a solid pass rush
with DT Atkins collecting 29 qbh & DE Howard having 33. The safeties were a little banged up TY, so
CB Allen finished as the #2 tklr and UGA finished #41 in our pass D rankings all?g 205 ypg (59%) with
an 11-11 ratio. They will need their top 6 DB?s (at least) to be healthy for the bowl, but UGA did hold
the best QB they faced, Tebow (though stationary due to shldr inj) to 236 pass yds and 1 TD pass.
Though UGA is happy to make a BCS bowl, this is potentially a lose-lose situation for the Dawgs
because if they beat UH, they ?only? beat a WAC tm, and if they lose, it will be a replay of LY?s Fiesta
Bowl. Hawaii is thrilled with a BCS appearance and does have hope from fellow WAC member Boise?s
Fiesta Bowl win. Georgia however will use that same upset from LY to keep themselves focused and
HC Richt has made a point that their loss to WV in 2005 catapulted the Mountaineers program. A
focused Georgia team will show you the talent difference between the SEC and the WAC, FORECAST: GEORGIA 43 Hawaii 27 RATING: 2★
