Louisville is favored by 2? to 3 most places. I see them as even team-wise this week, considering injuries. If the game was in Louisville, that spread would be fine ? but it?s not, it is in Cincinnati. My first inclination was that maybe that Eric Shelton was coming back and it just wasn?t widely known. That would do it, but he?s been downgraded to Out on the latest IR I checked. Nothing else jumps out at me as a possible positive bump for Louisville, so maybe it's something negative for Cincinnati.
Richard Hall is listed as Questionable for the game with a lingering ankle problem. Rushing yardage per carry has decreased dramatically since the UAB game back in mid-October, when Hall went out of the line-up. Replacement Terry Arnold has been nowhere near as effective and the game results show it, even compensating for the tough end of year schedule.
The long and short of it is that rather than Shelton vs. Hall, we have Gates vs. Arnold. The nod definitely goes to Gates, but 3 points? Assuming Guidugli produces typically, Cincinnati should be able to hang 14 or so points on the scoreboard. Is Louisville likely to hang more than 17? I don?t think so ? look at what happened with Memphis, in Louisville. The offense was missing that game and it?s reasonable to think that Louisville with Gates at Cincinnati would have at least as tough a time, even if they score a bit more. I know, I know, they put up 28 at TCU, but they did that with a passing game that probably wouldn?t work as well against Cincinnati.
In the end, I just can?t find the missing 3 points on the field. When I step back, though, I see something else. Cincinnati has been floundering since opening 3-0 and I think this may be the key. Their record looks pretty shabby, even for 5-6. Their only wins after September 20 came at home against Army and Rhode Island, neither by more than a touchdown. Louisville?s 8-3 record looks pretty good, if you don?t look very closely. Most of those wins were against low level competition, but I think they get extra credit for beating Syracuse early on and for being only a field goal kicker away from winning at TCU. I think that it may be easy to really home in on Louisville as the pick from the perspective of those USA Today College Matchup pages.
So here?s what I think. Louisville and Cincinnati are more or less the same team assuming Gates and Arnold. Cincinnati at home in one last attempt to even their record trumps Louisville on the road with nothing really to gain. I also wonder what Petrino?s concentration level is these days. I doubt the line will move against Cincinnati, so I?ll take the points, but hold the wager until the last minute to make sure that the running back situation holds no late surprises.
Richard Hall is listed as Questionable for the game with a lingering ankle problem. Rushing yardage per carry has decreased dramatically since the UAB game back in mid-October, when Hall went out of the line-up. Replacement Terry Arnold has been nowhere near as effective and the game results show it, even compensating for the tough end of year schedule.
The long and short of it is that rather than Shelton vs. Hall, we have Gates vs. Arnold. The nod definitely goes to Gates, but 3 points? Assuming Guidugli produces typically, Cincinnati should be able to hang 14 or so points on the scoreboard. Is Louisville likely to hang more than 17? I don?t think so ? look at what happened with Memphis, in Louisville. The offense was missing that game and it?s reasonable to think that Louisville with Gates at Cincinnati would have at least as tough a time, even if they score a bit more. I know, I know, they put up 28 at TCU, but they did that with a passing game that probably wouldn?t work as well against Cincinnati.
In the end, I just can?t find the missing 3 points on the field. When I step back, though, I see something else. Cincinnati has been floundering since opening 3-0 and I think this may be the key. Their record looks pretty shabby, even for 5-6. Their only wins after September 20 came at home against Army and Rhode Island, neither by more than a touchdown. Louisville?s 8-3 record looks pretty good, if you don?t look very closely. Most of those wins were against low level competition, but I think they get extra credit for beating Syracuse early on and for being only a field goal kicker away from winning at TCU. I think that it may be easy to really home in on Louisville as the pick from the perspective of those USA Today College Matchup pages.
So here?s what I think. Louisville and Cincinnati are more or less the same team assuming Gates and Arnold. Cincinnati at home in one last attempt to even their record trumps Louisville on the road with nothing really to gain. I also wonder what Petrino?s concentration level is these days. I doubt the line will move against Cincinnati, so I?ll take the points, but hold the wager until the last minute to make sure that the running back situation holds no late surprises.
