I have followed this board for a year now, and finally started posting last week. I actually won my biggest bet of the year last sat. with USC +3 over CU. (40-3) I had $1000 on USC and i have another big play (Auburn +1 over MSU) Thur. which i plan on betting $500 on. I don't bet nearly this much every week, but only when i see great matchups like i see this thur. Not as strong as my USC bet but close. Hopefully i can get other cappers opinions on this game as well and maybe they can find something to help or go against my play that i did not see.
I have done a lot of research on this game, and as a bonus, i have seen Auburn (live) play USC this year. Here is a long write-up i did, and you can make an informed decision based on my info.
Auburn defense: overall defense based on team speed, and there LB are very fast (top 5 in nation). D-Line is very good at stopping the run, but have not been getting great pass rush on QB's. Secondary is average but have not given up any big pass plays in 3 games.
Auburn offense: Strength is their running game. They have a great RB in Carnell (Cadilac) Williams. He is very fast and strong and is the best RB in SEC and top 10 in country. Their QB Cobb is a 5th year senior but is a very average QB. Passing game is not nearly as strong as their running game.
Miss. St. offense: Hard to tell how good their offense is. They were without their starting QB against Oregon, and he played agains division 1aa JSU. He started off poorly going 0-5, but had a great 2nd half. He is accurate and also threw some long passing plays. But remember this was a 1aa team he did this against. There weakness is their offensive line. Their O-Line could not run block at all. Very poor run blocking but they are good at pass blocking. MSU RB is a very average/poor RB.
MSU defense: Usually MSU has great defense but not his year. They let Oregon score at will, running and passing. Against JSU there D-Line struggled stopping the run. JSU only rushed 169 yards because the MSU DB's came up and made tackles which helped a lot. MSU D-Line also has trouble getting pressure on the QB, and got ZERO sacks against JSU. JSU moved the ball against MSU and was compeitive in the 1st half. Midway 2nd quarter MSU was winning 19-13, but MSU won the game 51-13.
Auburn wins this game because games are won in the trenches. MSU weakness is ther 0-line and D-line. Auburn will be able to run against MSU and their run game will set up the passing game. Since MSU cannot put pressure on the QB, Cobb should have no problem with the very little passing he will have to do in this game. I think AU can still run successfully if MSU stacks 8 in the box and Cobb should be capable of burning them with the pass. MSU will not be able to run, and they have a terrible O-Coordinator who will try and run and play smash mouth football. MSU only success will be passing and they will test the AU secondary. WIthout a running game, i do not see MSU putting up a lot of points, especially if AU can run the ball and eat up the clock.
In addition to that, Miss. St. is a VERY undisciplined team. They always lead SEC in penalties and look for them to easily record over a 100 yards in penalties. Especially stupid penalities (roughing passer and personal fouls). MSU cannot beat a good AU team if they make penalties.
After visiting the each teams message boards, i came away with this: Auburn fans are confident in beating Miss. St. and want to make an impression on the nation. They want to be ranked in the top 25 badly. Miss. St. fans were very disspointed in their first 2 games, and think they will need to make major improvements to beat Auburn. AU fans want and think they are at least a top 25 team, and MSU fans hope they will finish season @ or above 500. FInished 3-8 last year. MSU beat Auburn last 2 years, and AU gave MSU last years game on a silver platter with key Turnovers. Hopefully MSU returns the favor this year, but AU will not need to rely on TO's to win the game.
Miss. St. has one advantage and that is they are playing at home. AU travelled across the country and were very competitive against the #11 ranked Trojans. Miss. St. played @Oregon and got routed. Auburn has played 3 games this year and looked good in all 3. MSU played 2 games, and looked terrible against Oregon and did not dominate a 1aa team. AU played tougher opponents and will be ready for this game.
On special team AU has one of the best kickers in nation in Duval. Miss. St. had poor special teams in both their games, especially on special team coverage. Maybe AU gets a punt/kickoff return? MSU certainly won't with Duval kicking!
Auburn wins this game between 7-17pts, depending how well AU QB Cobb plays. He does not make costly mistakes but is not a real threat in passing the ball. Fans are real high on Miss. St. QB but I look for him to have some trouble against this very fast AU defense. Hopefully AU brings pressure on MSU Qb like he has not seen this year. (he played against 1aa team)
Auburn 26
MSU 13
Good luck in choosing your games this week, and if I had to choose the best game of week, it def. would be this one. I saw USC+3 against CO, and jumped all over it. I see similar situation here. Wrong team favored, and AU should be at least 7pt favorites even though they are on the road. MSU tough place to play, but AU will be fine. Auburn wins in close game or a blowout. Thats exactly what i said about USC and USC won 40-3!
I have done a lot of research on this game, and as a bonus, i have seen Auburn (live) play USC this year. Here is a long write-up i did, and you can make an informed decision based on my info.
Auburn defense: overall defense based on team speed, and there LB are very fast (top 5 in nation). D-Line is very good at stopping the run, but have not been getting great pass rush on QB's. Secondary is average but have not given up any big pass plays in 3 games.
Auburn offense: Strength is their running game. They have a great RB in Carnell (Cadilac) Williams. He is very fast and strong and is the best RB in SEC and top 10 in country. Their QB Cobb is a 5th year senior but is a very average QB. Passing game is not nearly as strong as their running game.
Miss. St. offense: Hard to tell how good their offense is. They were without their starting QB against Oregon, and he played agains division 1aa JSU. He started off poorly going 0-5, but had a great 2nd half. He is accurate and also threw some long passing plays. But remember this was a 1aa team he did this against. There weakness is their offensive line. Their O-Line could not run block at all. Very poor run blocking but they are good at pass blocking. MSU RB is a very average/poor RB.
MSU defense: Usually MSU has great defense but not his year. They let Oregon score at will, running and passing. Against JSU there D-Line struggled stopping the run. JSU only rushed 169 yards because the MSU DB's came up and made tackles which helped a lot. MSU D-Line also has trouble getting pressure on the QB, and got ZERO sacks against JSU. JSU moved the ball against MSU and was compeitive in the 1st half. Midway 2nd quarter MSU was winning 19-13, but MSU won the game 51-13.
Auburn wins this game because games are won in the trenches. MSU weakness is ther 0-line and D-line. Auburn will be able to run against MSU and their run game will set up the passing game. Since MSU cannot put pressure on the QB, Cobb should have no problem with the very little passing he will have to do in this game. I think AU can still run successfully if MSU stacks 8 in the box and Cobb should be capable of burning them with the pass. MSU will not be able to run, and they have a terrible O-Coordinator who will try and run and play smash mouth football. MSU only success will be passing and they will test the AU secondary. WIthout a running game, i do not see MSU putting up a lot of points, especially if AU can run the ball and eat up the clock.
In addition to that, Miss. St. is a VERY undisciplined team. They always lead SEC in penalties and look for them to easily record over a 100 yards in penalties. Especially stupid penalities (roughing passer and personal fouls). MSU cannot beat a good AU team if they make penalties.
After visiting the each teams message boards, i came away with this: Auburn fans are confident in beating Miss. St. and want to make an impression on the nation. They want to be ranked in the top 25 badly. Miss. St. fans were very disspointed in their first 2 games, and think they will need to make major improvements to beat Auburn. AU fans want and think they are at least a top 25 team, and MSU fans hope they will finish season @ or above 500. FInished 3-8 last year. MSU beat Auburn last 2 years, and AU gave MSU last years game on a silver platter with key Turnovers. Hopefully MSU returns the favor this year, but AU will not need to rely on TO's to win the game.
Miss. St. has one advantage and that is they are playing at home. AU travelled across the country and were very competitive against the #11 ranked Trojans. Miss. St. played @Oregon and got routed. Auburn has played 3 games this year and looked good in all 3. MSU played 2 games, and looked terrible against Oregon and did not dominate a 1aa team. AU played tougher opponents and will be ready for this game.
On special team AU has one of the best kickers in nation in Duval. Miss. St. had poor special teams in both their games, especially on special team coverage. Maybe AU gets a punt/kickoff return? MSU certainly won't with Duval kicking!
Auburn wins this game between 7-17pts, depending how well AU QB Cobb plays. He does not make costly mistakes but is not a real threat in passing the ball. Fans are real high on Miss. St. QB but I look for him to have some trouble against this very fast AU defense. Hopefully AU brings pressure on MSU Qb like he has not seen this year. (he played against 1aa team)
Auburn 26
MSU 13
Good luck in choosing your games this week, and if I had to choose the best game of week, it def. would be this one. I saw USC+3 against CO, and jumped all over it. I see similar situation here. Wrong team favored, and AU should be at least 7pt favorites even though they are on the road. MSU tough place to play, but AU will be fine. Auburn wins in close game or a blowout. Thats exactly what i said about USC and USC won 40-3!
