Hey guys don’t post much but very thankful for all your plays and insight. Have a hedge question for tonight and could use some advice. My bracket pool has come down to the Miami-UConn game. If Miami wins I win 3k and if UConn wins I get nothing. I’ve been trying to think of possible hedge options, including taking futures etc and I can’t seem to come up with anything due to UConn’s ML being so high. Any advice would be greatly appreciated. Thanks in advance!
Help me understand. I’m assuming the uconn mia game clinches it b/c no one else has the opp to get points now. No one had SDSU or FAU, so these points in the senis would clinch it correct?
I have an idea. Two options - option 1 complicated you put on both SGPs below and risk $700. If they lose you still are +2,300
Single game parlay:
Mia O 68.5
uconn O 73.5
U 156.5 (total for game )
+486 payout - bet $200 to win $1,172 (inc stake)
either team can win in this scenario.
next sgp:
Uconn ML
O 149.5
+175 payout - bet $500 to win $1.375 inc stake
OR OPTION TWO:
bet $500 on Uconn -2.5 H1
Either they win that bet and you win $450, OR they are trailing in the 1st half and you get a ML # to hedge out with. You’ll want to bet $500 more on that ML.
example - 8 min in, uconn trails 20-13. You’ll be able to get a uconn ML at -150 or better (likely -175 at worst to -125 best). If they trail by as much or more further into the half, you’ll get uconn ML at + money.
example - 5 min left in h1, miami leads 36-26, you’ll def get uconn +150 or so maybe better as a ML.
Now i’d go option 2 personally - because you could end up winning the 1st half bet anyway, and the uconn ML bet for the game.
In that scenario, you win $1,000 minimum. Not $3k but not bad.
the best case is uconn gets down a lot and early. Then you could play another $500 on uconn + points in H1.
you stand to win as many as 3 uconn bets, the most difficult of which is -2.5 for H1.
not for the risk adverse, but i’d def bet uconn in the first half. If they jump out big and dont look back you’ll salvage a win despite losing the pool. Depending on risk tolerance , adjust bet sizes accordingly.
the SGP options give you real leverage though, because you could not only win $1k, but miami can win the game in the first SGP, and you’d win $1k plus your $3k in the pool.
hard but doable
UBER AGGRESSIVE: do SGP 1 and the uconn H1 bet. Lay $1k total but allows opportunity to win much more than the $3k when all is done.
these aren’t pie in the sky ideas. In the sweet 16, i had FAU +4.5 for the game. I went BIG on tenn -1.5 first half when they were trailing 12 min into the game. Tenn covered that h1 bet and FAU covered the +4.5 in the end. These require an open mind, sharp quick calculations, some luck, and definitely some mental instability to pull off. But winning multiple bets in one game is very doable , PLUS gives you your hedge at the very least.
gl
opcorn2:facepalm::shrug::shrug::shrug:
