LPGA Tournament of Champions

[Stanley]

Outright plays (1.5 units unless stated):

Annika Sorenstam to win 11/10 @ William Hill [3 units]
Poor performance on this course on her only previous visit (1999), but that matters little this week. Annika is dominating the game at the moment and will be seeking her fifth straight victory. She now has 11 victories from 20 starts this year and against a reduced field, I would have taken odds of evens. She is having the same effect on the field as Tiger has done in the men's game. Totally dominant and these odds do not quite reflect that. So happy birthday Annika!

Michele Redman to win 33/1 e.w. @ SkyBet
Came very close to siding with Cristie Kerr (who also has a birthday this week ... on Saturday), but chose course experience instead. Redman has competed each year this event has been held at Magnolia Groves and together with two decent performances, she finished 4th in 2000. But it is primarily her current form that earned her selection. Her last twelve finishes on North American soil read: 6th, 2nd, 4th, 37th, 22nd, 8th, 6th, 4th, 2nd, 22nd, 5th, 3rd. That is amazing consistency and it was an impressive performance last week after she could have been forgiven a mental letdown after halving her singles match with Suzann Pettersen when she had been five up with five holes to play.

 

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (1.5 units):

Charlotta Sorenstam to beat Heather Daly-Donofrio -118 @ Expekt
Daly-Donofrio shot 76-77-76-79 to finish next-to-last in this event last year and having missed nine of her last fourteen starts on American soil, it should be no surprise if she repeats last year's performance. Charlotta won't threaten her sister this week, but she has missed only one cut in the last six months and finished 6th in the Canadian Women's Open in August. Out of Daly-Donofrio's league.

Rosie Jones to beat Laura Diaz -118 @ Expekt
Diaz has blown hot and cold all season and as the season has wore on, it has become more cold than hot. She has missed two of her last six cuts and finished down in 12th place (of twenty) last week. With no course experience, she should be no match for Jones who has played here in all three years and has finished in the top-4 in her last two events.

Catriona Matthew to beat Emilee Klein -111 @ BetandWin
Both in good form before the break and it is difficult to split them in the head-to-heads, but this course should suit Matthew considerably more than Klein. It is long and Matthew has been averaging 20-30 yards longer off the tee than Klein, while hitting the same percentage of fairways over the past few months. Klein's putting has been much better, but it is length off the tee and good greens in regulation figures that are important on this course. Klein may have finished higher than Matthew last year, but that is misleading when looking at this year. Klein's drives were 30 yards longer in that event last year and she was in a much better run of form at the time. I don't see her repeating last year's performance.

 

[Clive]

Stan

Interestingly Kerr complaining a lot about her swing after last week...a costly +3 after her first two holes on Sunday ruined any chance of the win..started ok, but Koch pretty quick off the mark.

 

[Stanley]

Final update:

Matchups: 3-0-0; +4.50 units

Sorenstam/Daly-Donofrio WON by 14
Jones/Diaz WON by 1
Matthew/Klein WON by 2

Outrights: 0-2; -4.50 units

Sorenstam 4th
Redman 13th

Break-even event as the matchups covered the outrights. Annika looked like she might pull off the win halfway through the final round, but she faltered over the final nine and Se Ri Pak surged ahead of the field. Redman was out of the tournament after her 2nd round 74. So glad the two close matchups finished on the right side!

LPGA Tour ytd
Matchups: 15-13; +5.90 units
Outrights: 13-47; +47.79 units