Mac and others week 5

[spang]

YTD: 26-28 (-2.65) Thought I was headed for the black last week but it was not to be. Moving on...

Eagerly awaiting a number on Baylor and Kent despite the shaky QB situation at BU. The bears took a major hit with the loss of Griffin but the real problem this saturday will be if his back up,Szymanski will be ready to go after having a shoulder injury in the same game.Szymanski has plenty of experience, so if he's ready this should be a very comfortable spot for the Bears who can easily control this one on the ground and protect Szymanski's gimpy shoulder.If he can't go it's a pass unless the number is so soft that I can not resist.

My disdain for the Flashes and my eagerness to play against them may seem quite apparent here. I just think that we may see a somewhat softer number due to Baylors injuries,so this may or may not be the spot for me. I won't get stupid.

I'm considering a few, but there is nothing I feel that there is a hurry to get down on. Falcon and Spackler may well have the right idea with BG though, this a light number at home for a decent Mac team to lay .You have to like that one before it hits 3 and I am pretty sure that it will. As I respect those two cappers, I will follow suit for a unit.

Games of interest off the top of my head.

W VA / Colorado- Can they set the total high enough??

Indiana + I've watched Indiana's last two and the Hoosiers have some playmakers. Can they stay close at home vs. the stout Buckeye defense? I'm thinking, maybe so If Tressel and crew remain conservative. I would like to grab another point or two though before getting involved. If it goes to or past 17, I'll probably bite.

Cinci - at Miami O. I feel that Miami is far better than their record shows but they are seriously outclassed in this spot. Have to think that the Bearcats are 4 TDs or more better here in a game that is in their back yard.I do not think that 26 is too many, but the first half line may be a better way to go.

Temple at Eastern Mich. I was also watching the temple /Buffalo game last week and Buffalo simply gift wrapped this one for the Owls. Be careful though if considering a play against the Owls as EMU will be playing without talented QB Schmitt who was lost for the season with a knee injury. It will be of interest to see if the Eagles can compete without him.

So for now , just a small one on BG -2'. No hurry for any of the others

The beat goes on......

 

[Sun Tzu]

Griffin is out for the year. That's a devastating blow to Baylor and will be a big mental issue for them I suspect.

Szymanski has experience but he is a much different type of QB than the offense Baylor has been running.

 

[spang]

Griffin is out for the year. That's a devastating blow to Baylor and will be a big mental issue for them I suspect.

Szymanski has experience but he is a much different type of QB than the offense Baylor has been running.

Thanks

That was the biggest concern, how much the playbook would have to be modified. The mental impact to the team is a factor that I had not considered but should be factored in as well. I never saw him play, but I understand that Griffin was quite a talent and the Bears will suffer vs Big 12 company.

 

[Irish]

Good luck Spang
I was looking at the WVU game myself... I just am not sure if WVU can rebound after last week. They should have little to no confidence in Brown and I also think Colorado should abandon the pass and run every play. Still the poor defense of Colorado has me waiting to see what I do.

Cheers
Irish

 

[spang]

Thanks Irish,

Going to grab Cinci now at 27. This is already at 27' at some spots. one unit

 

[spang]

Idaho + 3' two units :

I had the Vandals last week and think they can be used right back in the role of the home dog. Idaho just impressed the hell out of me last week. I played them last week due to their ability to run the ball and they racked up 200+ in rushing yardage. But it was QB Nathan Enderle and the passing game that went for 270+ and 3 Tds that really impressed and proved that they are not a one dimensional team. This was all acheived against a NIU defense that was regarded as a pretty good unit.

Idaho appears to be turning the corner and I'm not at all convinced that the correct team is favored here. I would not be at all surprised to see this bet down to 3 or less so I really like getting the hook here.

A possible play on the total looms as well if the number looks good.

Lets- Go- Idaho :director:

 

[AR182]

spang....

do you know anything about the replacement qb on e. mich. ?


good luck with your plays...except for the ones against me....lol...

 

[spang]

spang....

do you know anything about the replacement qb on e. mich. ?


good luck with your plays...except for the ones against me....lol...

I do know a little about him because of his Ohio HS background and I have boned up on the situation after Schmitt went down.

It appears that true freshman Gillett has moved into the spot over Mc Mahon because he's the guy that got the call in the big house when Schmitt went down. That came as a surprise to many because Mc Mahon was always the guy who took over in the past.

Gillete is a very smart QB who led Ohio div.3 power, Clyde HS here in Ohio. He was known to be a kid that made very good decisions and could make a play all by himself when things broke down.I remember that I thought he was a pretty good catch for EMU when they signed him. He can run it really well and also deliver the ball with accuracy. He's a bit smaller than Schmitt at 6'1" but I think that he will be a much more mobile QB. I would be surprised if EMU doesn't put a few plays in the playbook for him to use his legs. He should become a very good MAC QB with some seasoning.

All that said, I thought very highly of Schmitt. He was a very good QB that nobody heard of because he was on such a poor team. I really liked him and know that nearly the entire offense was built around him so the transition will probably be difficult. I will be surprised if an already bad football team doesn't take a few more steps backward before it begins to gets better.

If there is a positive in the whole thing it is that EMU had a bye last week to get Gillette some more work with the first team. I am really looking forward to seeing how he develops. English must have great confidence in him to give him the start over McMahon who had started a few games in the past.

I'll have to watch a game or two before I throw some money their way but I hope the kid does well.

 

[thomas_howard]

Spang,

How about toledo again this week?

Cashed a winner on them last week...

 

[spang]

Spang,

How about toledo again this week?

Cashed a winner on them last week...

Good, glad you caught them.

Ball St, as bad as they are, actually showed some signs of life in a big time environment last week. Before that they really played OK vs Army the week before but fell on the short end of the score. Who knows, maybe they have some hope after all but I doubt it because that defense is just horrible.

I'm always hesitant to lay points on the road but it was good to see the Rockets bounce back after the OSU game. If I had to move on it I'd probably side with the Rockets as well but their defense just scares the hell out of me, it just may be worse than Ball State's. The difference is that the Rockets can outscore their defensive problems and Ball State can not.

Both teams like to give up yards like government cheese in the ghetto so it should be an entertaining affair for the fan that can't get enough offense.

I had this one circled as a possible over play.

 

[#cruncher]

Good, glad you caught them.

Ball St, as bad as they are, actually showed some signs of life in a big time environment last week. Before that they really played OK vs Army the week before but fell on the short end of the score. Who knows, maybe they have some hope after all but I doubt it because that defense is just horrible.

I'm always hesitant to lay points on the road but it was good to see the Rockets bounce back after the OSU game. If I had to move on it I'd probably side with the Rockets as well but their defense just scares the hell out of me, it just may be worse than Ball State's. The difference is that the Rockets can outscore their defensive problems and Ball State can not.

Both teams like to give up yards like government cheese in the ghetto so it should be an entertaining affair for the fan that can't get enough offense.

I had this one circled as a possible over play.

Good take on those teams...was leaning Toledo but will probably pass now.

 

[spang]

Baylor -20' (-120) Ten Units

Don't give a rats ass whos at QB.

 

[spang]

Back from Hells kitchen...

I was very pleased with this number though I did think it wise to buy off of 21. If Iowa State can go into Kent and win by 20 with 4 turnovers then Baylor can name the score. All they need to do is pound it on the ground play a little D and take care of the ball.

Not sure of what the line would have been with Griffin but I think this is a bargain. I don't think people realize just how bad this Kent St. team is. This is by far my largest play so far.

 

[AR182]

Back from Hells kitchen...

I was very pleased with this number though I did think it wise to buy off of 21. If Iowa State can go into Kent and win by 20 with 4 turnovers then Baylor can name the score. All they need to do is pound it on the ground play a little D and take care of the ball.

Not sure of what the line would have been with Griffin but I think this is a bargain. I don't think people realize just how bad this Kent St. team is. This is by far my largest play so far.

spang....

i'm tailing you on this play....but there is some stuff to back it up which i'll post asap....plus i think this is an important game for baylor because of bowl eligibility & i think kent will look to get out with as little injuries as possible & get ready for the mac opponents....

good luck....

 

[hawkeye]

Like Bay and Cinn alot--looking at CMich un-Cinn ov what are your thoughts on these games?

 

[spang]

Hawk, I'd be inclined to agree with both. Buffalo is aware ot the fact that they need to try to hold this number down to have a chance. I would expect them to try to move the ball on the ground and run clock. They have to do what they can to keep LeFevour off of the field.

Miami may need to score only once, hell maybe not at all to get that one over. The nice thing about Cinci is that they have 2 other really good QBs that played a lot in Pikes absence last year. If they build a big lead and pull Tony , no problem the others can move the 'Cats as well.

I will probably be on both of them, and looking at two more MAC totals as well.

 

[spang]

Mac Totals

CMU/Buff U55' one unit
Tol/ Ball St O 61' two units
Cin/ Mia O 56 two units
Kent/Baylor U50 one unit
OU/BG over 46 one unit

All plays based on a simple formula that I use with some speculation added due to current form, key injuries, and pojected strategy. (and some imput from the best total player I know I was only planning on using The Cinci total for one unit but I'll bump it since Hawkeye likes it.

CMU Buffalo
Buffalo figures to run clock to keep CMU's high powered QB and offense off of the field. Zach Maynard also comes in off of his worse game,I mean he was horrible against temple, so even more reason to try to run the ball

Toledo / Ball St.
Neither team plays any D at all. Opelt will light it up and Ball St. can and will score on the Toledo defense.
This should be one of those fairly typical MAC west shootouts.


Cin/ Mia

Kelly names the score and has enough depth to keep moving it with the second team when the game gets out of hand. need a score or two out of Miami to feel secure, should get one late.

Kent/ Baylor

Baylors QB problems would suggest that they would pound it down Kents throat, and they can. The Kent defense gave up 550 yards to Miami fucking Ohio so I have little doubt that Baylor methodically marches up and down the field.

Kent's offense will struggle to get to double digits.Kent's scoring numbers have been boosted by garbage time scores and the many gifts from Miami last week. This offensive unit is, in fact, pathetic. A 35-6 or 42-0 type game would work well for me here and I think thats close to how this one plays out.

OU/ BG

Simply a formula play with no outside imput added.

 

[tulah]

I got Toledo BIG this week....
Totally agree on your imput....
Will play the Ov too...

GL this week:mj06:

 

[spang]

Good luck Tulah,

I rarely play these garbage match ups in prime time but I looked at the numbers and I think the wrong team is favored. Have to toss a unit down on the ML.

Haw. Money line one unit to win 1.95

 

[LDB]

gl this week spang:toast: