mac saturday: week eight .......

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gman2

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this has been, by far, the more unpredictable the mac has been in either football or basketball in recent memory. the parity (or pathetic play) in this conference from week to week has made it very difficult to cap.

just look at the preseason favorites. akron was supposed to be the best team in the east. they're all but out of the race before halloween.

and in the west, northern illinois has lost to ohio at home as well as to a bad western michigan team. theyre also all out of the race.

toledo is one loss away from quitting on the season despite having a load of offensive talent.

bowling green comes to every game equipped with guns to take on the field so the players can shoot themsleves in the foot every time they do something good. and if they realize they are in position to win, they immediately make it a point to implode.

miami looks like the best team in the mac on some drives .... and the 1-6 team that they are on others.

central michigan and kent state might end up meeting for the mac championship despite having special teams units that cant even put an extra point or chip shot field goal through the uprights with regularity. kent state is the best team in the conference right now ... and they couldnt cover 18 on opening night at home against minnesota while getting blanked 44-0. what?

aside from a few promising young players and the obvious production of wolfe (then again, even he was a no-show last week), there isnt a lot of good football being played in this conference right now.

ohio/buffalo
bulls coming off the short week after playing the make-up game on sunday. ohio starting to come on strong in the middle of the season. when ohio plays to their strength -- namely, mcrae and the running game -- they can be very good. when they get the ridiculous urge to become a pass-first team, they look like a JV team. if they are smart, theyll run right at buffalo. and if theyre smart, theyll stick to the run the rest of the season because the mac east is there for the taking if they want it. chalk is a little high in this game, but buffalo had to deal with a messed up practice week and is starting to regress after showing signs of progress in the early weeks.

miami/akron
normally one of the best matchups in the mac. now, its an almost meaningless game between two sub-.500 teams. zips coming off a bye and they needed it. kennedy is healthy and that helps. but this offense has not been consistent. the cincy game was a microcosm of their season. they jumped out early in the first quarter and looked great offensively ... and then completely shut it down for the remainder of the game. miami is far better than their 1-6 record. but akron is so due to lay it on someone. the over here is very, very tempting. lots of talent at the offensive skill positions for both teams. but inconsistency has plagued both teams.

toledo/eastern michigan
if you want a perfect example of how fu.cked up this conference is right now, look no further than this game and spread. toledo was a 24 point chalk last year against eastern. and now they come into this one as a 1-point dog to an emu team that hasnt won a game this season. toledo is one loss away from letting this season get really ugly. they self-destructed in the 2h of the central michigan game and went off virginia tech-style with personal fouls and mistakes. then they were talking trash in pregrame to kent state before they got their heads beaten in by the flashes. this program isnt used to losing and now that they are facing adversity, it seems like they dont know how to sack up and face it. on paper, this game isnt even close today. toledo is double digits better. but beware of the "quit factor". this team is dangerously close to doing it despite their talent. eastern michigan got a big boost with jones coming back healthy last week. he is a sparkplug for their offense.

ball state/western
western has no business laying points on the road, but then again ball state is horrible. these teams are big time opposites. wmu has a pedestrian offense with a solid defense. ball state has some young playmakers on offense, but a d-III level defense. ball state is a tough place to win. their home field is like any other in the mac and it almost lulls opponents to sleep. the better team rarely plays to their potential in bsu home games. but backing ball state isnt the most appealing thing right now. imo, its ball state or nothing .... and "nothing" might be the prudent choice.
 

gman2

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just to clarify on the ball state "home field edge". its not because they have crowds/fans that care (they dont). and its not because they have a great program or tradition (obviously, they dont). its that their field is high school quality. the conditions are always sloppy at this time of year. bsu home games have a way of turning into very ugly games that often dont play out like you would expect. good toledo teams and good northern illinois teams have even struggled in this shitty environment. if bsu had any reliable defense to speak of, theyd be well worth a moneyline shot here.
 

DIRTY Diapers

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It's homecoming this weekend at BSU... This is really the only time they fill up the stadium. I'm making a small play on the cardinals
 
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#cruncher

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Know what you mean Gman, at least from a numbers point of view...the MAC has treated me better than any other conf over the last few years...but not this year?
 

kneifl

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I can honestly say....

I can honestly say....

The only team I ever liked in the MAC is the Toledo Rockets. Well coached, great program, and a great football school for a University.

Sometime I gotta get myself a Toledo Rockets hat because they made me lots of $$$ gambling.

kneifl
 

gman2

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The only team I ever liked in the MAC is the Toledo Rockets. Well coached, great program, and a great football school for a University.

Sometime I gotta get myself a Toledo Rockets hat because they made me lots of $$$ gambling.

kneifl

completely agree. thats why id like to think they wont quit on amstutz. he is a players coach that puts tons of confidence in his players (he routinely goes for it on 4th and 1, even in his own territory). it would be a shame if they mailed the season in on him. like you said, theyve built a 'program'. miami and bowling green were on their way, but meyer's stay at bg was a little short. he was on the way to establishing them as the premier team in the conference before he left for utah. its kind of a shame because meyer would have stayed instead of going to utah but the university wouldnt commit to improving the facilities and new weight room and stuff like that. but i digress. i know what you mean though. normally, any bet you make on toledo, you know youre betting on a good coach and program. but even toledo has slipped. yes, gradkowski is gone. but they shouldnt be where theyre at right now.
 
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gman2

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the only reason toledo is in this game is because emu is, well .... emu.

2 short field goals, and then stuffed 3 straight times inside the 2. could easily be 17-0 or 21-0.

instead, toledo getting the ball back down just 6-0.
 

gman2

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if the 2nd half total is 23 or less, going to play the 2nd half over fairly strong. that will be the lone mac play for the afternoon unless something pops up for akron/miami.

but there have been plenty of points left on the field in this emu/toledo game.
 

gman2

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get the feeling from the amstutz comments right before he went to the locker room that cochran might be re-inserted at quarterback for a spark.

toledo 2nd half over 21.5

great line. if emu can find the endzone once, this one should go over the #
 
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gman2

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actually laughing at this eastern michigan 2nd half. teams have combined for 8 penalties midway through the 3rd. just an ugly, ugly, ugly 2h

same sized play

akron/miami over the total

going to trust my original instinct here. anything less than 50 is just too low for these two teams. this is usually a high scoring series and this shouldnt be any different. akron's offense hasnt been in sync lately. hopefully the bye helped because this offense is better than it has shown
 

gman2

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eastern michigan 1st goal yet again .... and they throw an interception. :mj07:

toledo touchdown later called back on a penalty.

the mac is beyond bad this year. just horrible football all around.
 
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vinnie

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