Madeira Island Open

[Stanley]

Outright plays (1pt):

Maarten Lafeber to win 12/1 e.w. @ SkyBet and Paddy Power
Available at 14/1 at William Hill (though with poorer place terms), but also joint favourite at 6/1 with Bet365, there is considerable difference of opinion about Lafeber. But considering that he was only three shots off the lead when he had to pull out of the Qatar Masters two weeks ago with a virus, there looks good reason to back him rather than oppose him this week. He won is home Open last year and was 2nd on this course in 2002 (14th on his other visit in 1998), so if he is well again, then his class should prevail against this field.

Steve Webster to win 33/1 e.w. @ William Hill
Although he has yet to win a Tour event - though he failed to win the 2001 Open de Madrid only via a playoff loss to Retief Goosen - among all the missed cuts, he does have some very high finishes. He has made three cuts this year and finished 2nd, 6th and 24th on those occasions. He does have course experience which is important here and has finished in the top-25 on his last two visits. If he makes the cut, he shouldn't be too far from the leaderboard.

Robert-Jan Derksen to win 33/1 e.w. available generally
Derksen has won on Tour - last year's Dubai Desert Classic were he beat Ernie Els into 2nd place - and that puts him in lofty company in this field. He subsequently returned to struggling on this Tour thereafter, but there was an encouraging sign of a return to form with a top-10 finish in Qatar two weeks ago. With plenty of course experience as well, including a top-10 finish last year, Derksen warrants his tag as one of the favourites for this event.

 

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (1pt):

Paul Broadhurst to beat Diego Borrego -115 @ Five Dimes
Borrego may have some very impressive form here - top-25 in all four visits including a win in 2002 - but his form is desperate. Since last year's event, he as played 13 times and missed the cut in all but two events.

Andrew Oldcorn to beat Gareth Paddison -115 @ Five Dimes
This is a quirky course set at altitude on the side of a mountain; course experience is vital. Paddison has none and despite a year on the European Challenge Tour last season, he has had very little success on this continent - just one top-10 on that Tour last year and a missed cut in all four full European Tour events that he has played in. He is capable of much better, but should struggle to find it on this course. Siding with a player who still makes more cuts than not and has plenty of experience at Santo da Serra.

Henrik Stenson to beat Gareth Paddison -110 @ BetInternet
Stenson is another who makes a majority of cuts against much better fields - four of six this year - and has plenty of course form with the cut made in each of his four visits. Should be enough in his favour in this matchup.

 

[gethman]

Terribly poor field, where favourite Bradley Dredge should win at a canter. However, I would never bet a player at 6/1 in a field this big, and while the event does not warrant large stakes, there does appear to be some value.
Players who know the course, and its tricky greens are more likely to go well, but any player who has half decent form at the top level will have a chance given the poor field. Do not write off however, some of the junior tour players, who could seize the opportunity to win at a higher level.

Mikka Ilonen, 40/1, SkyBet, 1pt E/W

Henrik Stenson, 66/1, Bet365, 0.75 pt E/W

Christopher Hanell, 80/1, StanJames, 0.5 pt E/W

Sion Bebb, 200/1, Stan James, 0.25 pt E/W

 

[Let's Have Fun]

Tailing Stan with Webster.

 

[lal2000]

Outrights ? ? unit ew ? all ? odds 1st 5

J Elson 150/1 @ Bet365
D Botes 125/1 @ Sporting Odds
M Ilonen 50/1 @ Bet365
J Sandelin 66/1 @ Sporting Odds
R Rock 150/1 Victor Chandler
Sam Little 100/1 @ Sporting Odds
T Moore 66/1 @ Sporting Odds

Also interested in Elson, Borrego, Cayeux and Luna.

Good Luck!

 

[lostinamerica]

OUTRIGHTS:

Robert-Jan Derksen(30/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ 5dimes
John Bickerton(18/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ Bet365
Steve Webster(25/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ Bet365
Jarmo Sandelin(60/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ 5dimes

I'm without television coverage on this one, so any in-running wagers seem most unlikely . . . I won't regret pursuing a profit with that lineup, and that was the clincher.

GL

 

[Stanley]

Nice call gethman on Hanell

Outrights - Final update: 0-3; -3.00pts

Lafeber 29th
Webster mc
Derksen 14th

Chaotic event with none of the rounds completed on time. Derksen finished only five shots out of the lead, but none of the selections were really in contention at any stage.

Matchups - Final update: 3-0-0; +3.00pts

Broadhurst/Borrego WON by 10
Oldcorn/Paddison WON by 2
Stenson/Paddison WON by 4

A nice sweep to cancel out the losses on the outrights and all were decided at the cut. Just as well as any score was possible in the high winds over the weekend.

European Tour ytd
Outrights - 2-7; -5.12pts
Matchups - 6-6; -0.75pts

 

[lal2000]

Well Halled on Hanell, Gethman - he was certainly not on my radar - nice to have you on board - keep those good calls coming.

 

[gethman]

Thanks for the comments. Pretty unlikely winner given he only shot one sub 70 round all week, but I knew I was looking at something good when he went one under for the round today, and the leaders were falling apart in the wind.

Pity as I had lowered my staking for this event, given the field, but Hanell and Adam Scott tonight, certainly made up for a tough week at the Players!!

On to next week!! :tongue