Outright plays (total stake per play: 1.5pts)
Jose-Filipe Lima to win 28/1 e.w. @ Bet365 and Coral
Portugal's newest sporting import made himself an instant hero last week when he finished 3rd to beat the previous best of 42nd by a home player in the Portuguese Open. While rather too many of his final round shots were described by the commentators as "agricultural", any downside from his wayward play would have been immediately negated by chipping-in for a birdie on the last hole while the sky was falling in on everyone else. Now he plays in the second Portuguese event and will draw a very large proportion of the support again. He is clearly a player who thrives on this as he showed last week and when winning the St Omer Open in front of his then-home crowd in France last year - he had also won the previous week in Spain on the Challenge Tour - so he is certainly capable of winning or at least without the live TV audience. Importantly, he has already played this course and finished in the top-30 last year, and momentum, if nothing else, should carry him for the first couple of days here.
Stephen Scahill to win 33/1 e.w. @ Stan James, Sportingbet, Sporting Odds, Victor Chandler and BetFred
In start contrast, Scahill quietly hung around the top-10 all week last week and secured his third high finish in his last five starts with 17th in the New Zealand Open and 16th in the Dubai Desert Classic. Very few in this field can match that form and he has shown good form on Portuguese soil in the past as well. He finished 4th in the Portuguese Open in 2001 and looked set to win this event in 1998 after a 2nd round 61, but surrendered a two-shot lead heading into the final round to finish 2nd. He is a player who will miss a lot of cuts, but is just as capable of high finishes in events like these and could add to his tally of two Challenge Tour victories.
Ivo Giner to win 50/1 e.w. @ Sportingbet, Sporting Odds and Bet365
Shot to prominence recently with a swashbuckling 7th place finish in the TCL Classic in last month and, but for a poor first round, could have added another top-10 finish the following week in Indonesia. He had also ended 2004 in good form when a 3rd round 64 hauled him up to 3rd place after three rounds in the Open de Madrid. Only a top-two finish would have secured his Tour Card for 2005, but he took a triple-bogey seven on the 5th hole. However, he then put together a very impressive run that saw him finish 6th - three shots from 2nd place - and even though he lost his Card, he still finished inside the top-150 in the Money List and so earned the right to play in a limited number of events this season and he has taken his chance very well. This season, he ranks 6th in Scoring Average on Tour and 1st in Greens in Regulation. Throw in two top-10 finishes in his last four visits to Santa da Serra, including a 2nd place finish in 2002 when he had a four-foot putt on the last hole to force a playoff, and the Spaniard looks a decent proposition at these odds.
Jose-Filipe Lima to win 28/1 e.w. @ Bet365 and Coral
Portugal's newest sporting import made himself an instant hero last week when he finished 3rd to beat the previous best of 42nd by a home player in the Portuguese Open. While rather too many of his final round shots were described by the commentators as "agricultural", any downside from his wayward play would have been immediately negated by chipping-in for a birdie on the last hole while the sky was falling in on everyone else. Now he plays in the second Portuguese event and will draw a very large proportion of the support again. He is clearly a player who thrives on this as he showed last week and when winning the St Omer Open in front of his then-home crowd in France last year - he had also won the previous week in Spain on the Challenge Tour - so he is certainly capable of winning or at least without the live TV audience. Importantly, he has already played this course and finished in the top-30 last year, and momentum, if nothing else, should carry him for the first couple of days here.
Stephen Scahill to win 33/1 e.w. @ Stan James, Sportingbet, Sporting Odds, Victor Chandler and BetFred
In start contrast, Scahill quietly hung around the top-10 all week last week and secured his third high finish in his last five starts with 17th in the New Zealand Open and 16th in the Dubai Desert Classic. Very few in this field can match that form and he has shown good form on Portuguese soil in the past as well. He finished 4th in the Portuguese Open in 2001 and looked set to win this event in 1998 after a 2nd round 61, but surrendered a two-shot lead heading into the final round to finish 2nd. He is a player who will miss a lot of cuts, but is just as capable of high finishes in events like these and could add to his tally of two Challenge Tour victories.
Ivo Giner to win 50/1 e.w. @ Sportingbet, Sporting Odds and Bet365
Shot to prominence recently with a swashbuckling 7th place finish in the TCL Classic in last month and, but for a poor first round, could have added another top-10 finish the following week in Indonesia. He had also ended 2004 in good form when a 3rd round 64 hauled him up to 3rd place after three rounds in the Open de Madrid. Only a top-two finish would have secured his Tour Card for 2005, but he took a triple-bogey seven on the 5th hole. However, he then put together a very impressive run that saw him finish 6th - three shots from 2nd place - and even though he lost his Card, he still finished inside the top-150 in the Money List and so earned the right to play in a limited number of events this season and he has taken his chance very well. This season, he ranks 6th in Scoring Average on Tour and 1st in Greens in Regulation. Throw in two top-10 finishes in his last four visits to Santa da Serra, including a 2nd place finish in 2002 when he had a four-foot putt on the last hole to force a playoff, and the Spaniard looks a decent proposition at these odds.
