Hi LIA ... yes, it's good to be back in Europe, though there may be some that will be wishing Shaun stays on to cover the European Tour on Tour-Tips
Outright plays (total stake per play: 1pt)
Bradley Dredge to win 12/1 e.w. available generally
Did also consider David Lynn (18/1 Coral & Boyles), but Dredge looks the best player amongst the favourites. His two finishes of 24th in the Qatar Masters and 13th in the Dubai Desert Classic cannot quite match Lynn's recent form, but it is still far better than anyone else in this field and he should also benefit from not having gone on the tiring Asian leg of the Tour schedule. And if his 2006 form is very much in his favour, his course form is even moreso. He has played in this event three times, winning once (2003) and finishing 7th and 14th. When he won he shot the lowest-ever round on this course with a 60 and even though it doesn't count as a course record because of the preferred lies, it is enough evidence that Dredge should go very close to winning this week. It is hard to see him not being in contention this week.
Francisco Molinari to win 40/1 e.w. @ BetInternet, Sportingbet, Sporting Odds, Victor Chandler and BetFred
It has been quite a six months for the Molinari family. Brother Edoardo won the U.S. Amateur Championship in August, the same month that Francisco earned his first top-10 on the Tour with a 6th place finish in the Johnnie Walker Championship and it enabled him to retain his Tour Card for this season. And it has been this season that he has moved up at least one level with three top-10 finishes in six starts. That is impressive form for this field and at these odds and given that his 22nd place finish on his debut last year was at a time when he was out of form (missed cuts in the week before and after this event) and it represented his best finish on the Tour up that point outside Italy, there is plenty of reason to expect him to finish in the top-10 again this week.
Mark Foster to win 66/1 e.w. available generally
Has struggled in previous seasons with injury and prolonged illness, but looks to be back to his best this season. Even when he won the Dunhill Championship after a six-man playoff in 2003, he only finished 67th in the Order of Merit, but now ranks 52nd this season after a 12th place finish in the Abu Dhabi Golf Championship and 4th in the Malaysian Open in his last outing with a final round 63. That was a month ago, so there should be no fatigue worries after the Asian leg of the Tour schedule and on his return to this course last year, having not played in the previous three years, he finished alongside Molinari in 22nd place. That is a decent effort when not in the form that he is in now and that means there should be plenty of value at these odds.
