Madeira Island Open

[Stanley]

Outright plays (total stake per play: 1pt)

Robert-Jan Derksen to win 25/1 e.w. @ Sportingbet, Sporting Odds, Tote and Boyle Sports
A common feature among the last five winners is that they finished in the top-25 in their last visit to Santo da Serra before winning the title. And given that this course is set on the site of a mountain with very large altitude changes on many of the holes, it is not surprising that a good acquaintance with the course is a prerequisite to winning here. Derksen, actually, doesn't fit the angle of a top-25 finish at last visit (he finished 45th), but he did win here in 2005 (having been 6th and 14th the previous two years) and no-one has ever successfully defended the Madeira Island Open, so he certainly meets the criteria of course familiarity. And there is the current state of his game: in six starts this year, his worst finish has been 27th. That level of consistency is unmatched in this field and he should be counted upon to challenge for this title for the fourth time in five years.

Oliver Wilson to win 33/1 e.w. @ SkyBet, Victor Chandler, Ladbrokes, BlueSq and Tote
Wilson missed the cut on his course debut in 2005, but bounced back with a 21st place finish last year and so is well-placed to improve on that further. Like Derksen, he has yet to miss a cut this year (5 starts) and has a worst-finish of 41st, but it was his performance in the Johnnie Walker Classic that deserves attention. He was denied in the playoff by Anton Haig who performed heroics - as opposed to Wilson buckling - to get there, but he again showed that he has enough potential to be competing in the WGC event this week in future years rather than becoming a regular here. Even a repeat of the form that he showed when finishing in the top-20 the week after that playoff should earn him a strong shot at this title.

Francesco Molinari to win 33/1 e.w. available generally
Molinari is already a winner on this Tour, having picked up the Italian Open title last year. And he also meets the course history criteria with finishes of 22nd and 15th in his two previous appearances here. His 22nd place finish in 2005 was his best finish on this Tour to date outside Italy and his 15th place finish was part of a very promising early season form that culminated in his Italian Open win. He hasn't played as well at the start of this year, despite finishing 2006 very strongly, but his 14th place finish last time out in Singapore is enough indication of a return to form. Certainly enough in the sense that course form is much more important this week and he completes a trio of players with a good history at Santo da Serra.

 

[ridle]

1/4 1-5:
Andersson Hed 150/1 General
Arruti 225/1 Stan James mc
Foret 250/1 General
Lima J-F 125/1 General
Mork 200/1 General
Rodiles 125/1 Coral
Sullivan K 150/1 Coral mc
Suneson 100/1 General
Tadini 125/1 Sky
Walker 150/1 General
Webster S-P 175/1 Bet365 mc
Matches at 5Dimes:
Sullivan 1.97 over Higley L
Webster SP 1.98 over Erlandsson L
Arruti 1.98 over Raitt L
Noren 2.00 over Karjalainen W
Foret 1.97 over Cea L
Sobrinho 1.95 over Campino W

Was thinking about R1 Lead Betting but forecast put me off.

 

[lostinamerica]

ODDS and ENDS:


(1) Going about 7300 miles - and thankfully, about six time zones - from Hainan Island to Madeira finally lands the Tour in Europe (I'm assuming centuries of history preclude any need for a geography discussion on that one).


(2) Well, this week marks the anniversary of last year's heady experience of my tipping and hitting Stephen Ames(150/1) in The Players and Jean Van De Velde(100/) in Madeira in the same week . . .

I probably can't top last week when a single play on Rocco Mediate(250/1) gave me a fine run for my money as an encore to last year. As it is, this is a week when I'm having trouble limiting my plays rather than struggling to find any plays that appeal, but the bottom line is that I could easily embarrass myself, and any profit at all would actually make for a commendable result.


(3) "Flatters to deceive" . . . When trying to pick winners (without the cushion of Betfair style hedging), there are few things more important to speculate on than that not so wonderful signature on the weekend, "Flatters to deceive". Sometimes just a temporary condition, but often a long-term moniker and prescription for failure . . . While capping the Mayakoba event in Mexico, the name Boo Weekly got stuck in my head as my top candidate for the "Flatters to deceieve" award for that week, and with just a $1 e.w. wager at about 125/1, my hypothesis toting player shined all the way to 6th place. I had no one pegged for the role the next week, but the following week I really liked Peter Lawrie to deceive in Singapore, and with $1 e.w. at 150/1, he waited until Sunday to drift before finishing T-8 and one stroke from the money. Last week I had the name of Shaun Micheel "circled in my mind" about 5 times (going on fifty) as looking perfect for the role, and a desperate rush of closing birdies on Saturday couldn't fend off the handwriting on the wall for Sunday (T-12 and 3 strokes from in the money), and my $1 e.w at 150/1 proved a waste. So my figuring has been a little too fine for comfort, but kind of on a roll nevertheless, and this week I keep tripping over the name of Zack Johnson as appearing close to being in the right spot at the right time, but eventually being found out as not yet his time, just another "Flatters to deceive" man . . . but with the anniversary and all, I've bumped my insurance this time to $2 e.w. on his 80/1 prospects. Flatters to deceive.


(4) Outrights:

Peter Lawrie(80/1) e.w. @ thegreek
- - A player who has sucked me in too often over the years, but there is some quality there I like. Anyway, Lawrie gave an excellent television interview after the 3rd round of KLM (June of 2006, after a 64), in which he discussed his 3 wood off the tee as being flat out the best club in his bag, and he expects to play well on venues in which he can navigate his way around on that basis. On the following Sunday, it was relatively easy to see his confidence and form with that stick. Moreover, I've since went back and checked his results, and that insight seemed to nicely synthesize much of his performance history, and helped explain a dichotomy I've always struggled with in capping Lawrie, to wit, steering clear when wayward driving gets punished, despite some very solid finishes on some very tight - almost quirky - courses . . . Fast forward to 2007 - Mr. PeLawrie in Singapore really looked as relaxed and chipper as I've ever seen him when in the mix, this quirky clifftop venue would really seem to play to his strength (notwithstanding no significant prior course form), and the lad from the land of St. Patrick has a nice morning grouping with Lynn and Frost on his 33rd birthday (Thursday) to get himself off on his best foot.

Eduardo Molinari(40/1) e.w.
- - I agree with assessments liking his immediate and long term prospects vis-a-vis his younger brother; I like his competing jointly with his brother at a Euro Tour event (and one that for now is a much rarer and special treat for the BigBro than the places the KidBro has been); success at Merion is not that far removed from the type of fiddly demands this course throws at you; and forget for the moment a Challenge Tour win for a promotion to the Euro Tour, and seize the day with playing privileges through 2009.

Paul Lawrie(50/1) e.w.
- - It's about 1800 miles from Aberdeen, but not so far in terms of the forecasted March weather. Not surprisingly, his website diary/blog is wall-to-wall with saying and doing much the right stuff prior to this event, he gets paired with the Carnoustie name with whom he will be forever linked, and I am squarely in the camp that rates him a proven specialist that can rise to the top when winds or weather are frightful and/or elevations and stances might be better suited for a billy goat.

Jean Van De Velde(20/1) e.w.
- - I kept a candle burning for the Mr. Noun and Verb, and I was richly rewarded. This week, his price is off putting, but proper appreciation and respect means I really have no hesitation in letting him carry my cash again this week (same with Ames in Florida), and I actually give the dude a decent chance of being near his best . . . It is a quirky event with scary weather in the forecast, so I'm leary of getting involved with nearly any of the short priced favorites, so a direct consequence of this play is passing on Storm, Derksen, Lynn and others in the Van De Velde price range.

Pablo Martin-Benavides(150/1) e.w.
- - His game probably displays all the refinement of an American tourist, but his potential makes this an intriguing possibility . . . hoping to adopt him after he fills my boots.

Tom Whitehouse(80/1) e.w.
- - Looking to add a specialist for this venue and weather forecast, or at least a favorite son, and liking this play over Wakefield, Cevaer and Lima. The lad has shown flashes all over while on this side of the Pyrenees, and not so much at all on the other side, so I guess he fits the criteria I established for this slot. And with his 27th birthday also on Thursday, I've got an angle to seal the deal.


The boat feels plenty full, but I might yet capsize the craft before I even start the journey nb adding to it.


GL