Madeira Island Open

[Stanley]

Course: Santo da Serra Golf Club, Santa Cruz, Madeira
Yardage: 6664
Par: 72 (four par-fives)
Greens: Penncross, Poa Annua

Weather Forecast

Best Players Last 10 Years

Past Winners:
2001 - Des Smyth
2000 - Niclas Fasth
1999 - Pedro Lindart
1998 - Mats Lanner
1997 - Peter Mitchell
1996 - Jarmo Sandelin
1995 - Santiago Luna
1994 - Mats Lanner
1993 - Mark James

 

[Monarch]

Stanley, do you feel in an event like this it is worth taking whatever quality is available against a field of relatively unknowns? It just looks from 1st sight that there is a good chance only a handful have a legitimate shot this week. Am I lulling myself into a false sense of security?

 

[Stanley]

Outright plays (1.5 units unless stated):

Peter Fowler to win 22/1 e.w. @ Eurobet [5 places option]
Played on the side of a mountain, course experience is essential at Santo da Serra and all three selections have that. Fowler finished 15th last year to meet that requirement so it primarily his current form that makes him stand out at this price. He had finished 10th in the Johnnie Walker Classic, 2nd in the Heineken Classic and 3rd in the Jacob's Creek Open before returning to the European Tour to finish 12th in Qatar last week. Against a field comprised primarily of European Challenge Tour regulars, he is just too a player for this company and is better value than Bickerton at twice his odds.

Andrew Oldcorn to win 33/1 e.w. @ Eurobet [5 places option]
The only Category 2 player in the field, the reigning Volvo PGA Champion also looks too good for this field. The obligatory top-15 finish last year means he satisfies the course experience requirement and he looks to be in great form. He opened his season in the Dubai Desert Classic and finished 7th, while he withdrew 'for personal reasons' after a first-round level-par 72 last week. I don't know the full reasons for his withdrawal, but it doesn't appear that he was injured so, like Fowler, he has been playing well against much better company to warrant this price.

David Lynn to win 66/1 e.w. @ BetInternet
Lynn bucks the trend of in-form selections. He has just one round from ten this year under par. Thankfully, it was his last round, but it was not enough to enable him to make the cut in Qatar after an opening 76. The reason for his selection is solely his course form. Back-to-back 7th place finishes on this course must surely be inspiration enough for the Englishman to reverse his current run of form. Worth a speculative punt at 66/1.

 

[Stanley]

Monarch, I would think that you are right, but the list of winners above does not inspire too much confidence

Because this is such a quirky golf course - on the side of a mountain and played in thin air - decent course experience is essential in my opinion. For that reason I have discounted the likes of Kjeldsen and Bennett for poor course form and Dougherty and Maritz for no course form. Everything points to Bickerton, but his odds also reflect that

 

[bettingmad]

John Bickerton, 14/1 Ladbrokes.
This looks as easy Ernie at Dubai but more than double his odds. Cannot be discounted by serious form followers who can bring themselves to support the favourite. His course form is second to none with finishes of 2-5-4-14-13. Add to this his excellent recent form of 4th Qatar, 6th Malaysia & 14th ANZ and you have a another winner too obvious to miss!

 

[Clive]

sounds like the bmad wedge is on!
Els is a proven winner, can't say the same about Bickerton. Bit short for me.

Will side with Suneson, who has top tens here too...was 100/1 with Sporting Odds

Also backed Luna at 80/1 with Hills, and David Park at 80/1 with Corals.

Think the 33 Oldcorn is a great price, but what were the personal reasons?

 

[bettingmad]

Clive,
No Dubai/Buick type wedge.... because as you say he is not a proven winner, though he must go to sleep each night thinking this is his best chance! I just think that on paper it seems easy.... but that's not always reliable or we would stop betting as it would be no fun any more.... just winning all the time. The wins wouldn't feel as good if there not after a few losses!

Are you laying any 21.00 at betfair.... come on mate.... you can afford it after last week.. your "biggest golf win ever"..... shed some of the weight... release the tension on your pockets?

 

[Ian]

Trying desperately to think of a reason why I should back someone whose only win was in 1994 on the Challenge Tour, who has a great course record admittedly but who is only 14/1 - might have to wait til in-running.
Two 80/1 shots for me (can't break the habit of a lifetime )
Stenson - was so hyped last year and he won - if he was in form he would be vying for favouritism - but he ain't so he's not (succinctly put Ian) - just think the return to Europe will see a change in his game 80/1 Bet365.
Hank Kuehne - last 2 weeks played the Canadian Tour events in Texas:shrug: and finished 2nd and 1st - OK - crappy events I know but clearly in form - the 80/1 with Sporting Odds and Hills has vanished - he might still be that at Centrebet.

 

[Stanley]

Kuehne is out

 

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (1.5 units unless stated):

Daren Lee to beat David Dixon -111 @ Simon Bold
Neither play in great form in regular European Tour events, but crucially Lee has experience on this course and Dixon does not. Top-20 finish for Lee at Santo da Serra last time around and he is more than capable of repeating that feat this week.

Mark Mouland to beat Scott Drummond -111 @ Simon Bold
Again lots of course experience against none. Drummond may have had a very good season on the Southern Africa Tour, but he has struggled in his two European Tour starts to date - 58th in the Sao Paolo Open and a missed cut in the North West of Ireland Open, both last year - and missed the cut in the European Challenge Tour's Kenya Open on his last start. Together with no course experience, he should be one to oppose.

Santiago Luna to beat Ben Mason -111 @ Simon Bold [3 units]
Ditto! Great course form and even a winner of this title (though it was on a different course at the time), Luna is an automatic selection here. No course experience and selected for this matchup presumably on the basis of his two top-10 finishes on the Challenge Tour this month, Mason may make the cut but he is not in the class of Luna, particularly on this course.

 

[Monarch]

Disappointing news regarding Kuehne as I had taken a little ew at the start of the week. To keep some mild interest in the event I will take a couple of men I figure should at least contend:

Bickerton 14/1 @ Ladbrokes - 1 Unit ew.

Fowler 20/1 @ Spodds - 1 Unit ew.

 

[Clive]

What a weird tournament!!

Seve atop the leaderboard for a while yesterday.

Live scoring extremely unreliable - they had Luna at +5 after nine; at that point my three selections were a combined +13, so I gave up...when I log on this morning Luna is -3 and very nice thankyou!!

Anybody know what Oldcorn's personal reasons were? Seems to be playing ok?

Also, at one point yesterday, two of the tour's most inaccurate drivers, Seve and Winchester were leading, on a course where accuracy has always been important??!

 

[Stanley]

Mid-point update:

Lee/Dixon Void (Dixon did not start)
Mouland/Drummond WON by 11
Luna/Mason Leads by 8

Fowler 40th
Oldcorn 1st
Lynn 7th

Decent start to the event. Course experience vs. no experience proves profitable with an easy win with Mouland and a healthy lead with Luna. Fowler had a difficult day, but looking very promising with the other outright plays.

 

[bettingmad]

just testing... after errors posting

 

[steved]

Stanley, what is happening in Madeira? I never liked andrew oldcorn...I suppose he has a round to redeem himself !

 

[Stanley]

WTF!!!!

I don't know steved ... with no TV pictures I can only guess ... from the weather link above it appears to be rather windy and everyone else who has completed their rounds this morning has struggled.

Tough break with the weather for Oldcorn. As last out, he has to struggle with very poor visibility on the back nine yesterday and wind this morning. :nooo: It has certainly bunched the field together.

Go David Lynn (at double the odds)!!

 

[bettingmad]

The finishers this morning definitely struggled. Those completing yesterday (e.g. Terblanche) definitely gained a shot or two.
Just hope the wind is gale force today and blows away a few early starters... then abates just as Bickerton tees off!! But can he get his head in front... and keep it there? Nicely positioned yesterday then +1 for his last 12 holes.

 

[bettingmad]

post a smiley test..... :shrug:

 

[Monarch]

That was quite a shock to see the leaderboard this morning. Friday night I had given the tournament to Oldcorn and wished I'd taken him over Bickerton. What a difference a day makes. Still looks like it could be lottery if conditions prevail. With no TV coverage and abysmal scoring updates I guess I'll have to say a prayer and wait.

 

[steved]

I think the person doing the live scoring is on the 12th, as all the leaders scores are up to the 12th...I think he has moved to the 15th now, as some scores coming thrugh from there..oldcorn out with the washing...
cant remember why, but have backed borrego, picked him, then forgot, then for some reason i backed him, looked here but cannot see anyone else, so do not know what prompted this action...anyway, sort of interesting!