Madeira Island Open

[Stanley]

Outright play (0.75 units):

John Bickerton to win 16/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler
A very obvious selection! Bickerton has played at Santo da Serra in each of the six years that this event has been held there and has finished in the top-15 on every occasion. Course experience is important this week as the course is set on the side of a mountain ... it is an acquired taste! With finishes of 20th and 8th in the two Middle East events, he looks set for another good finish this week. Not sure he will finally secure his first Tour win, but if it is to occur anywhere, it will be here.

 

[milpalm]

Difficult to unearth some talent in this field. Have gone for Otto and Luna at 40/1, and Scahill at 66/1.

 

[bettingmad]

Also taken the 40/1 Hennie Otto at V Chandler.... needs to do better on this course but at least he is a winner this year.

 

[Clive]

Struggling to cope with hospitalisation of pc this week!

Have gone for Golding 100/1, Ilonen 50/1, Otto 40/1, and Bickerton 16/1.

Awful event but that is just the reason why we should be betting in it!

 

[Stanley]

Adding (0.75 units):

Bradley Dredge to win 14/1 e.w. @ Tote
Simply the best player in the field and everyone has to win their first event sometime! Have looked at top-5 odds for many others, but there are very few in this field who have top-5 finishes to their name, let alone look like securing one this week. With course experience vital - he finished 7th on his last visit in 2000 - and having finished in the top-10 in four of seven visits to Portugal, he should be suited. Having continued his excellent late-season form of last year in the first few months of 2003, he is difficult to ignore at these odds.

Mikko Ilonen to finish in the top-four 12.5/1 @ SIA
The 2000 British Amateur Champion is a player who has threatened many times to live up to his potential - top-10 in the 2001 British Open, 3rd in the 2002 Wales Open, 6th in the Dubai Desert Classic, but has yet to put a string of good performances together. He may yet prove himself this year, but at least he does look a player who can finish high up the leaderboard even though he is just as likely to miss the cut. With a top-25 finish on this course last year and a top-10 finish in the Portuguese Open a month later, maybe this could be one of his good weeks. Taking the place-only option as apart from the rain-affected Portuguese Open last year, his best finishes have all been courtesy of storming final rounds when there has been a pressure.

 

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (0.75 units):

Santiago Luna to beat Robert-Jan Derksen -125 @ Easybets
Did consider Luna for the outrights, so having passed over him for that market, will gladly double-up on him with the matchups. He is a former winner of this title (1995) when it was held on another course, but his form at Santo da Serra is impressive and consistent. In five visits, he has finished no lower than 34th and was 5th last year. The winner of the Hassan II Trophy in December looks set for another good finish. Can't imagine the same from Derksen who will surely suffer a fallout from his career-changing win in Dubai. With three missed cuts and a best finish of 41st in five starts on this course, Derksen could very easily be back home at the weekend revelling in his newly acquired fortune.

Santiago Luna to beat Andrew Marshall +100 @ BetInternet
Marshall has been in excellent form this season with four top-20 finishes in five starts, but this is a very peculiar and infuriating course. He has played it once and missed the cut on that occasion. This is a week for course specialists and Luna has a decisive edge.

Simon Khan to beat Jean-Francois Lucquin -125 @ Five Dimes
Marked contrast in form between these two. Khan can boast two top-10 finishes this season, while Lucquin can boast only two cuts made from six starts, though one was a top-10 finish in the Singapore Masters. Similarly, Khan has a best finish of 15th in two visits to Santo da Serra, while Lucquin has a high of 46th. Just too much in favour of the Englishman.

 

[lostinamerica]

Here's an angle:

http://www.bettingzone.co.uk/story_get.dor?STORY_NAME=betting/03/03/17/manual_151134.html

GL

 

[sports student]

after going thru the above threads and Stanley's stats, I played the following matchups at 5 dimes:

Ilonen +105 over Derksen
Otto -105 over Coltart

If I only play the matchups for the whole tourney, but not day to day I know I will be ahead most of the way. To counteract this possible frustration I placed a small 2 man parlay on these matchups for the first round which pays 2.7-1. Good luck everybody

 

[lostinamerica]

OUTRIGHTS:

My first approach in an attempt to unearth plays this week was to start at the bottom of the list by looking at the players with the longest odds, but that got me nowhere with this cast of characters. Quite recently, I liked the angle I posted on the motivated "Qatar 35". But instead, I came out this way:

John Bickerton(14/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ Bet365
He hasn't had this much support since . . . ever! Not good.

Henrik Nystrom(66/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ 5dimes
A hint of progression in his career for starters, and in fact enough multiple occasions of good form and solid finishes over the last 365 days that I had already given him a brief look during both of the last two weeks. And missing the cut can certainly precede making a statement the following week. But I also tried to develop an angle around Stan's well taken point that a quirky course on the side of a mountain can be very much an acquired taste (or something the opposite of that), and I went looking for some players with some solid history in other Euro tournaments on courses that might have similar character or charms. While I've only had one year as a devotee of the European Tour, some venues that came immediately to mind were Celtic Manor (Wales), and Barseback and Kungsangen (Sweden), with a secondary nod to Mediterranean venues and even events in the Far East (notwithstanding an unfamiliarity with the actual course that was played). It's a flawed comparison in terms of length and altitude, and because of my inexperience, certainly flawed in terms of the best choices I selected and omitted, but the bottom line was that Nystrom came out favorably in the research and comparisons among other candidates in this field. Finally, stats are my only source regarding any strengths or weaknesses of the short hitting Mr. Nystrom's game, so this play is all about digging and numbers crunching.

Santiago Luna(33/1) for 0.50* @ 5dimes
He also stood out in the same analysis keyed to venues in which Nystrom also rated favorably, and the woeful putting Spaniard's form in Madeira is in keeping with his solid record throughout the Iberian peninsula and Mediterranean regions. After a disappointing year in 2002, this looks like his spot for a chance to hole some putts and start the season on the continent off on the right foot.

GL

 

[Stanley]

Mid-point update:

Luna/Derksen Leads by 3
Luna/Marshall trails by 2
Khan LOST by 16

Bickerton withdrew
Dredge 2nd
Ilonen 8th

Weather-disrupted event meant there were a lot of withdrawals, including Bickerton, and scores in the 90s, which Khan almost achieved! Plenty of opportunity for a decent return from the remaining selections, so could be a good weekend yet.

 

[Stanley]

Final update:

Matchups: 0-3-0; -2.63 units

Luna/Derksen LOST by 1
Luna/Marshall LOST by 2

Outrights: 1-2; +4.80 units

Dredge 1st
Ilonen 8th

Easy eight-shot victory for Dredge after he had stormed to a 60 in the 3rd round. The 2nd best Saturday score was a 67! Ilonen pushed hard for a place win, but bogeys at the last two holes ended that hope. A little disappointed that Luna finished 7th, but still lost both his matches. At least Dredge's win ensured a profitable event.

European Tour ytd
Matchups: 5-7; -2.20 units
Outrights: 1-8; +0.30 units

 

[hoss]

Good call on Dredge Stan, but that is absolutely desperate luck on Luna - 7th overall + still lost both matches !!!

Mind you - I'd backed Adam Gilchrist to be Top Aussie batsman at the Cricket World Cup + once he was out today Ponting needed to score 133 runs to get past him - he got 140 including 10 off the last 2 balls of the match!!

next week......some book will pay...

 

[Stanley]

:scared:

Now that is bad luck! I bet it spoilt an otherwise very enjoyable game.