Yesterday's Recap:
1-0 +1.51 Units
Overall Second Half (July 1st & After)
32-22-1 +21.80 Units
MtL Expos Vs. AtL Braves OVER 7 -125
Risking 2.25 Units to Win 1.80 Units
You really have to pick your spots when you are going to play an over with Greg Maddux on the mound. To me, I have found a great spot here!!! This is why, first off let's start with the Atlanta Braves bullpen. They have to be getting tired, in the last two days they have used nine relievers and have thrown a total of 140 pitches, quite a few. The one thing Greg Maddux normally doesn't do is put in complete games. He might have to today, but if he can't those hot Expos bats should be able to do some damage. The Expos do have some guys on their team with a nice history against Greg.... Vidro 8-21 .381; Stevens 3-10 .300; Vlady 8-32 .250; Cabrera 6-20 .300; Barrett 6-16 .375.... The only other variable the Expos can do to score runs is steal a few bases, Maddux doesn't hold runners on at all. Mattes is getting the start for the Expos today and lately has been miserable. I have two possibilities for this. A) The book is now out on how to hit this guy and lately teams have or B) He just isn't ready for the Majors, he only had eight games started for Triple A. In July he is 1-1 with a whopping 8.59 ERA. Also, I am not sure Urbina is available tonight even with having last night off, he has worked a ton lately.
AZ DBacks Vs. SF Giants UNDER 9 -110
Risking 2.20 Units to Win 2.00 Units
Both Estes and Anderson have been pitching very well lately. This game looks to be a beautiful under due to Anderson when he pitches well gets no run support; as shown by his July Record 0-3 with a nice ERA of 3.68 plus his road record is only 1-4 but once again a decent ERA of 4.06. During day games he is 1-1 with a 3.62 ERA. Kent is questionable becuase of bruised ribs but if he does play it doesn't look to hurt out under since he is only 3-15 .200 Vs. Anderson. Bonds is 4-15 .267; Aurilia 3-19 .158 and Bernard 3-14 .214; the main guy Anderson will have to watch out for of all people is JT Snow 7-17 .412 against him. Rueter for the Giants has been incredible as of late. In his last 8 total starts he has allowed only 12 ER over 50 IP. Very nice!!! He is 1-0 with a 2.04 ERA in July and overall at home 4-3 with a 3.71. He is able to put away left handed batters who are only hitting .234 overall against him. Both Luis Gonzalez and Mark Grace have struggled against him going a combined 7 for 40. OUCH. Finally, home plate ump Travis Katzenmeir is working only his third game behind the plate, but in his first two games his called strike percentage was a whopping 65.6%, that is John Hirshbeck country guys!!
Tor BJ's +190 NY Yankees
Risking 1.75 Units to Win 3.32 Units
When I first saw this line I rubbed my eyes and then did it again. Wow!!! I guess books don't want people on the Yanks today. When I made my lines I figured at best the Yanks would be a -138 fav (approx 58%)!! Carpenter has been an absolute road warrior, in his last two road starts he has allowed only one earned run in 13 IP. But that is just the beginning, overall he is 6-1 with a 2.59 ERA. He is coming off a performance where he threw just 81 pitches on 7/17 so fatigue shouldn't be a problem. It isn't that the Yanks at home or Mussina is a pushover but come on, +190???? Mussina does show weakness when runners reach base, teams are hitting .303 with runners on. So he definitely can be score upon. Plus, after seeing Rivera yesterday we may not see him today because of that ankle. Not to mention that Yanks bullpen has bee rode extremely hard since the all star break.
Couple Notes: I will have at least one more play today. The Orioles look good in the double header Vs. the Angels. Extremely favorable pitcher Vs. Hitter matchups. Next, just a word of caution, take it however ya like or ignore it..... Even though that Under of 9 in that Reds Vs. Marlins game looks juicy be careful. Both Sullivan and Graves pitched last evening and that is the best the Reds pen has to offer. Next Burnett is coming off consecutive 114 pitch performances. Fatigue? Reitsma who is young is coming off 107 and 102 pitch performances. To me it looked like a one of those sucker bets, but who knows......
Good luck to everyone on this Sunday,
HC
1-0 +1.51 Units
Overall Second Half (July 1st & After)
32-22-1 +21.80 Units
MtL Expos Vs. AtL Braves OVER 7 -125
Risking 2.25 Units to Win 1.80 Units
You really have to pick your spots when you are going to play an over with Greg Maddux on the mound. To me, I have found a great spot here!!! This is why, first off let's start with the Atlanta Braves bullpen. They have to be getting tired, in the last two days they have used nine relievers and have thrown a total of 140 pitches, quite a few. The one thing Greg Maddux normally doesn't do is put in complete games. He might have to today, but if he can't those hot Expos bats should be able to do some damage. The Expos do have some guys on their team with a nice history against Greg.... Vidro 8-21 .381; Stevens 3-10 .300; Vlady 8-32 .250; Cabrera 6-20 .300; Barrett 6-16 .375.... The only other variable the Expos can do to score runs is steal a few bases, Maddux doesn't hold runners on at all. Mattes is getting the start for the Expos today and lately has been miserable. I have two possibilities for this. A) The book is now out on how to hit this guy and lately teams have or B) He just isn't ready for the Majors, he only had eight games started for Triple A. In July he is 1-1 with a whopping 8.59 ERA. Also, I am not sure Urbina is available tonight even with having last night off, he has worked a ton lately.
AZ DBacks Vs. SF Giants UNDER 9 -110
Risking 2.20 Units to Win 2.00 Units
Both Estes and Anderson have been pitching very well lately. This game looks to be a beautiful under due to Anderson when he pitches well gets no run support; as shown by his July Record 0-3 with a nice ERA of 3.68 plus his road record is only 1-4 but once again a decent ERA of 4.06. During day games he is 1-1 with a 3.62 ERA. Kent is questionable becuase of bruised ribs but if he does play it doesn't look to hurt out under since he is only 3-15 .200 Vs. Anderson. Bonds is 4-15 .267; Aurilia 3-19 .158 and Bernard 3-14 .214; the main guy Anderson will have to watch out for of all people is JT Snow 7-17 .412 against him. Rueter for the Giants has been incredible as of late. In his last 8 total starts he has allowed only 12 ER over 50 IP. Very nice!!! He is 1-0 with a 2.04 ERA in July and overall at home 4-3 with a 3.71. He is able to put away left handed batters who are only hitting .234 overall against him. Both Luis Gonzalez and Mark Grace have struggled against him going a combined 7 for 40. OUCH. Finally, home plate ump Travis Katzenmeir is working only his third game behind the plate, but in his first two games his called strike percentage was a whopping 65.6%, that is John Hirshbeck country guys!!
Tor BJ's +190 NY Yankees
Risking 1.75 Units to Win 3.32 Units
When I first saw this line I rubbed my eyes and then did it again. Wow!!! I guess books don't want people on the Yanks today. When I made my lines I figured at best the Yanks would be a -138 fav (approx 58%)!! Carpenter has been an absolute road warrior, in his last two road starts he has allowed only one earned run in 13 IP. But that is just the beginning, overall he is 6-1 with a 2.59 ERA. He is coming off a performance where he threw just 81 pitches on 7/17 so fatigue shouldn't be a problem. It isn't that the Yanks at home or Mussina is a pushover but come on, +190???? Mussina does show weakness when runners reach base, teams are hitting .303 with runners on. So he definitely can be score upon. Plus, after seeing Rivera yesterday we may not see him today because of that ankle. Not to mention that Yanks bullpen has bee rode extremely hard since the all star break.
Couple Notes: I will have at least one more play today. The Orioles look good in the double header Vs. the Angels. Extremely favorable pitcher Vs. Hitter matchups. Next, just a word of caution, take it however ya like or ignore it..... Even though that Under of 9 in that Reds Vs. Marlins game looks juicy be careful. Both Sullivan and Graves pitched last evening and that is the best the Reds pen has to offer. Next Burnett is coming off consecutive 114 pitch performances. Fatigue? Reitsma who is young is coming off 107 and 102 pitch performances. To me it looked like a one of those sucker bets, but who knows......
Good luck to everyone on this Sunday,
HC