Majors 7/23/01

[Happy'Capper]

Yesterday's Brutal Recap:
1-3 -4.25 Units
Overall Second Half (July 1st & After)
33-25-1 +17.55 Units

Today is a new day, and wanted to get this early play in:

Ana Angels -104 Blt Orioles
Risking 2.08 Units to Win 2.00 Units

There are more than a few good reasons that the Angels are the way to go today, so let's start with the bullpen. The Angels went 1-1 yesterday in that DH and used their bullpen very well. They used only three guys total in the two games therefore not depleting their BP for about a week. Holtz, Hasegawa, Levine, Weber, and Percival will all be able to go today. On the Orioles side the two BP guys I look at are Trombley and Groom and both of those relievers have gone to the mound two days straight, at best they will be tired. Merecedes is brutal at home, 2-4 6.20 ERA and in July Overall is 0-2 with a 5.12 ERA. Batters are hitting him at a clip of .330 at home. Valdes on the road is a very respectable 4-2 with a 3.83 ERA and in July 2-1 with a 2.58 ERA; both righties and lefties overall are hitting under .250 against him. Very nice spot to grab the Angels at a low price.

Be back later,
HC

 

[Happy'Capper]

Mtl Expos Vs. Phl Phills Over 8 1/2 -107
Risking 2.14 Units to Win 2.00 Units

Man, it seems like I have played the Expos over a ton lately. Actually this will be the fifth time in the last seven or eight days. Well, when the pen stinks and the Expos bats are hot that is a beauty of a combo. Anyway here is my reasoning tonight. First that line is at least one run too low and possibly a run and half. Next, Vasquez has thrown about as many pitches as he physically can throw with effectiveness over his past two starts. (120 & 115) I can't see him going too much past the sixth and then here comes that tired Expos BP who has thrown 89 pitches over the last two days. There ERA over the last ten games is 5.32. Vasquez also has a tendency of losing concentration when runners are on the bases. With runners in scoring position teams hit him at a .355 clip and when runners are in scoring position and two outs teams hit him at a .356 clip. Omar Daal has a fantastic home record of 6-1 but an unimpressive ERA of 4.91, excellent run support another good sign for the Over. So far against the Expos this year he has given up 8 Earned in 9.1 IP; then the Phills pen has also thrown 89 pitches over the past two days. Over their last ten the pen has a total ERA of 4.18.... Summing up, Good hitting, Tired Starter and Relievers, good run support for the starter = FAT OVER PLAY.

Good luck again, and I am not sure if I will have anymore tonight, but I will keep lookin'

HC