of course, sorta
OKC may be as high as ML -200
SA money comes in, ML drops
Anything under -200 will be a bargain on this game
Lines are certainly adjusted for this situation. While some portion of people may not take the 4-in-5 into account, people who are serious bettors will surely know this. The line will be much higher than ML -200, in my opinion. The lowest line that the Thunder have had at home all season this year is 4.5 against the Clippers early in the season, and recently they were a 5 point favorite over Miami. This line will be at least 5, and I believe a bit bigger - as Denver (at a very hot moment) was playing a back to back in Oklahoma as a 9 point dog just a few weeks ago... My guess is minimum they will be a 7 point favorite, which puts the ML around -330.
Further, I think it is difficult to say that you are going to automatically play against this trend every time. The chances of certain things happening, such as the Spurs resting players, coming off a blow-out, blowing a team out, an inflated line, etc., are bound to happen. All of these things affect the situation. While this is generally a good spot to fade teams, there are other factors to take into account. The Spurs themselves are 10-1 ATS in their last eleven games playing their fourth game in five days. Mentally tough teams can persevere through lack of rest.
The Clippers were a good play-against last night, but not only for the reason that they were playing 4 in 5. Minnesota was a great play against last night - but by adding in other factors, you can greatly sharpen this trend, or actually find a reason to go with it.
In all games where teams are playing their fourth in five, teams fail to cover the spread 52.9% of the time since the 2000 season. While this is acceptable, it is just right above the break-even point for gamblers. Trying to find additional angles to add to the play would be the way to really add value. Not an automatic play-against, either, at least for me. In the four games before the last two that fit this trend, teams went 4-0 SU and ATS.
Finally, depending on the line, OKC hardly ever has a lack of money for them. Hard to say that the line will definitely move in your favor in this one, as Thunder lines rarely do.
Just my thoughts on this -
Good luck!
