making sense of hilton numbers

[pepin46]

top five picks

1. n.o. confidence level 80%
2. miami-conf. level 79%
3. minny-conf. level 78
4. green b.-conf. level 72
5. philly- conf. level 63

the above confidence levels (ratio of % of for/against) are in line with the high number of picks. nothing special.

low confidence levels (in the 54-57 or so range) which tend to go the other way:

sfo 57

those with lower numbers merely indicate an anticipated score right along the lines, or fairly unhandicappable games, with an almost even split on votes.(oak 53 and sd 52)

left this one out-editing-

tampa, while not in the top five vote getters, shows the highest confidence level at 83 %. from these numbers it looks solid. maybe i will do this better next time.

from the top five, about the only surprise for me was the large number of votes and confidence level of new orleans and miami. does that mean n.o. and miami are the cream picks? you be the judge. add tampa as well.


pep




[This message has been edited by pepin46 (edited 09-08-2001).]

 

[pepin46]

this is the whole picture:

points for-team-line-team-points for
40 Ind PK NYJ 28
40 Oak 3 KAN 35
66 MIN 9? Car 19
57 GRB 5? Det 22
27 CIN PK Nwe 17
85 Nor 1? BUF 21
26 Sea 4? CLE 40
53 Tam 8? DAL 11
28 JAX 3 Pit 47
23 BAL 10? Chi 45
33 Stl 3 PHI 56
47 SFO 3? Atl 36
40 SDG 2? Was 37
18 TEN 6? Mia 66
50 DEN 6? Nyg 17

 

[Palmetto Pimp]

I do the same thing pepin..above 80% was SMOKIN last year..Above 70% also hit for a good perctage.

 

[davekingmanfan]

hilton people are saying that buffalo at home is worthless here....

I don't care what they say...a brooks and NOR on the road as a favorite against a a hostile crowd????

 

[pepin46]

as good as new orleans should be, i do have my reservations for now, as they seemed to lack the spirit of the kill in pre-season, always coming up short on drives, and especially toward the end of the game.

even balt made their statement vs. giants.

will watch the outcome here and take it from there.


pep

 

[Senor Capper]

top five picks
1. n.o. confidence level 80% WINNER
2. miami-conf. level 79% WINNER
3. minny-conf. level 78 LOSER
4. green b.-conf. level 72 WINNER
5. philly- conf. level 63 PUSH

----------------------------------------

THE WHOLE GUACOMOLE ?? 7-4-2

Indy pk WINNER
Oak -3 PUSH
Minn -9.5 LOSER
GB - 5.5 WINNER
Cincy pk WINNER
N.O -1.5 WINNER
Clev +4.5 WINNER
TB - 8.5 LOSER
Chic +10.5 LOSER
Phil +3 PUSH
SF - 3.5 LOSER
SD -2.5 WINNER
Mia +6.5 WINNER

Denver - 6.5 PENDING

----------------------------------------

Appears that the Aints and Dolphins were perhaps the cream of the crop picks.
I bet all the Top 5 seperately the only differences in the lines were :
Eagles + 3.5 and Minnesota -10
4-1 ATS

Confucius say.....
Never under estimate the Aints. Even on the road against a hostile crowd.

 

[visionary]

can you please tell me the link to the contest??thanks in advance.

 

[Hamster]

Originally posted by visionary:
can you please tell me the link to the contest??thanks in advance.

http://www.nss.net/Hilton.asp

 

[Dugan]

Pep, Are you going to post this again this week? It would be interesting to see what the outcome is and if this would be a factor I may add to my capping.

 

[pepin46]

i will try to keep up with the analysis of the hilton numbers. it is a bit early, and it gets more interesting later, as we isolate the top five leader's picks and make a correlation with the rest of the contestants.

if i am not mistaken, there are 226 contestants, and a certain percentage, my guess is around 50%, have no business being there, but heck, it is cheap enough for many and a thrill, having the opportunity to be near the top for a week and get some recognition. anyway, when the j.q.p. in the hilton gets on a high profile team, it may load it enough to make it a top pick (minny), the titanic of week 1, the can't miss game of the week. hah! (i did go with carolina for the contest, btw)

this study is by no means a set science, and i try to look at it in a simplistic way, trying to discard top picks when they are the high profile teams (like minny last week), unless the votes reflect an unsual interest from all sides, which will take upwards of 90, or perhaps 100 picks (for) for that particular team and a corresponding confidence level of around 85% or greater. i seem to remember a few games last year that topped 90% in confidence level, but unfortunately don't have the stats with the actual results. if someone still has them and would care to post them, many of us will appreciate it.

on the other hand, when your number 1 or 2 pick is a perceived "loser", and the confidence level is high, that is usually a dinamite pick.

the very first week, i was able to isolate easy winners: miami and n.o., and the team that had the highest confidence level, tampa, which once again reminded me to never play for or against them, hilton or not. still, even with limited resources it yielded a 2-1.

the numbers also showed a potential upset with atlanta, and God knows they should have won that game 3 times over, and a pass, meaning a close to the line game at k.c.

so in conclusion, the numbers are interesting, and if well interpreted, should yield a very decent return for those seeking just the buck.


pep

 

[Dugan]

Thanks Pep, I appreciate your efforts and will not hold you to anything, just very curious.

 

[Nick Douglas]

Pay very little attention to Hilton numbers. A lot of pay services play multiple entries. Think about what it is worth to say your service won a Hilton contest. Of course there are also many entries from legitimate handicappers but my advice is to put very little stock in analyzing Hilton numbers and instead handicap the actual games. Just a little FYI.

 

[He Hate Me]

Wrong Nick,

These guys are best in the world,the numbers dont lie.

 

[pepin46]

agree in that it is a most valuable tool and can save you from making a major mistake sometimes, so even if for only that reason it is worth looking at.

same applies to nolan's analysis: i find some valuable information there that at times has prevented me from making a major boo-boo. other times it is the give and take here at the forum that opens my eyes, especially when i find myself as the only hold-out for a particular team. at least 4 out of 5 times the serious forum discussions are right in those instances.

of course, i refuse to lose my humble abilities as a handicapper, so i will use those numbers as an aid only, like for example, the contest: i may have 3 perceived solid picks and 2 or 3 debatable ones. those hilton picks and what they mean to me will help me round out my 5 contest picks.

as a matter of fact, this year i was planning on analyzing nolan's picks, based on how he worded his write-ups and exclusions on whether the line moves 1/2 a point, etc., but now he has complicated things with too many reviews, contrarian opinions, etc., making the job just about impossible.

again, selecting the top 5 picks is not my idea for looking at those numbers, it is going one step beyond, thus "making sense of hilton numbers".


pep

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Nick I strongly disagree.
There are some nuggets if you know where to look.Appears someone has enticed my horse I've been riding away this year and I wonder what their price was considering he won $124,600 last year,including a $10,000 bonus for busting 67%.The feliow in question is a Mr Byrnes dba PJB Pro who won last years with a with a 68.2 record 58-27.His only previous attempt was prior year ranking in top 15 with a 50-33 60.2% record.
He starting building computer based program over the years and has evidently tweeked it pretty good.I can not find him anywhere in Hiltons directory this year.Odd isn't it.No defending champion?Could we have a "new" computer group?
If you want to read a little backround on this fellow look up archives of Gaming Today newspaper article dated 1-9-01.I can't access it ,have to be subscriber,but would appreciate copy if anyone can access it.

 

[Nick Douglas]

Exactly what was I wrong about? It is a simple fact that many pay services have multiple entries to give themselves the best chance to have that notch in their belt.

1997 - Jeff Allen
1998 - Jeff Allen
1999 - Russ Culver

You can't honestly believe that guys like that are putting in only one entry per year.

Look, do whatever you want with the Hilton numbers. Heck, play the top pick each week and you will probably make money. My only point is that the way to make money in the NFL is analyzing games, not plays made in some contest full of pay services.

 

[pepin46]

while we are on the subject:

i have always believed that if you can play 4 or 5 entries and make one of them a 67-70 winner, my hat if off to you, whomever you are. it takes a lot of calculations, luck, and you still need to be able to handicap.

if you don't believe it, try it for a few weeks on your own (by thurs midnight, before picks start appearing all over). you have to key off certain teams, and while the possibility of a short term spectacular percentage may pop up, you will have one hell of a time keeping it up for 17 weeks, and for as many 5-0s and 4-1s you get, you will get the corresponding 0-5s and 1-4s. you still need to be a good handicapper and make good selections to get into the high 60's territory.


pep

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Went back and read your post Nick and understand where you are coming from.You are totally correct about the touts.Also agree total consensus #'s are worth little.There are a few sharps that enter it yearly that I do think are worth observing however.

 

[GlobalTrance]

Nick , while I don't have the exact numbers from last year , (pepin46 might have them) I rember a few 5-0's, some 4-1's , and quite a few 3-2's . Think about it from another perspective , there's big cash on the table in that contest (big cash for me anyway) . Your dart throwers or simpletons must be in a HUGE minority there. Just a opinion but I think the "OVERALL" sophistication of the entrants in that contest is far from a casual bettor. As for the "touts" , SCUM that they are , even they may be SERIOUSLY trying in there for the PR, thus even with 5 entries there MUST be some serious thought going into the "key games" they use , just a thought , but some may even come here to see what their "key" game is going to be . Secondly, in a contest with SUCH A HIGH level of competion as the winners winning percentage will attest too , I do not believe you can summarily dismiss the consensus as having no credibility. For someone like me , I "use" the consensus as a tool , much the same as I "use" the opinions of the HEAVYWEIGHTS in this forum . As I do not know you , or have ever followed your selections . I know that your reputation speaks for itself and I eagerly look forward to your thoughts and ideas this NFL season . Best Wishes

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

I see from attached that he is entering under alias this year. http://www.vegasinsider.com/vhtml/u/ce/column/0,2863,3352545,00.html
Will be interesting to try and find him.By eliminating past entrants and obvious throw outs have it narrowed to bout 11 possibles.