Malaysia

[Ian]

Ed Fryatt never played well in US last year but a return to his old hunting ground of Asia where he has won 4 times including this event could rekindle his game.(100/1 also at Coral)
The event has strong connections for US players - I'll count Fryatt as one - other winners include Maggert, Norquist, Devers and numerous top 5's from others.
Will also add Ted Purdy at 100/1 (VC and Skybet) - throws in the odd performance and the American has played the course - albeit in 98 - finishing 7th.

 

[Clive]

Don't understand the price on Lafeber, who is 80/1 at Ladbrokes...been pretty poor in Aus, but much happier in Asia...some respectable performances. Should be half the price.

 

[bettingmad]

Ditto Lafeber...if you can forgive 3 missed cuts.... 4th in Singapore before that and ended last season with 8 consecutive top 25's in better fields than this.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Place only wagers MUCH better @ 5dimes than Skybet

Yates 12/1 Lafeber 16/1 Garrido 16/1 & Skybet bout 7/1 on each!!

These are comparisons by the way and not plays.

 

[Stanley]

Outright plays (0.5 units):

Ian Woosnam to win 40/1 e.w. @ Easybets
Opposed him last week, unfortunately, on his 2003 debut, but he did play well for two rounds and then in the last five holes of his last round. He should be upbeat after finishing the event so well and returns to Malaysia where he has played well in the past. Last year he finished 6th around Royal Selangor, having finished 11th on that course on his previous visit. In an open event bar the two headline players, this looks a bog price when he is generally 25/1 elsewhere.

Ignacio Garrido to finish in the top-five 16/1 @ Five Dimes
The 'money back if he misses the cut' offer at Paddy Power was tempting for the next two selections, but I can't see either of them winning and so will opt for the place-only option instead. Garrido has been quietly rebuilding his game, missing only one of his last twelve cuts and finishing 11th in the Johnnie Walker Classic last week with every round under 70. This week's field is very much weaker and he does have a very good history in this event. In 2001 he finished 18th and last year he finished 4th having never been lower than that position at the end of any round. Still some way short of the form that earned him a central role in the 1997 Ryder Cup, but he has a definite chance of a top-5 finish.

Fran Quinn to finish in the top-five 33/1 @ SkyBet
Huge price for a player currently in the top-10 of the 2003 Davidoff Tour Order of Merit and who finished 9th in the co-sanctioned Singapore Masters last month. He was a regular on this Tour from 1996 to 1999 securing back-to-back wins in 1999 before concentrating on the Nationwide (then Nike) Tour where he was a winner in 2000 (Dakota Dunes Open). He failed to secure his PGA Tour card at Q-School (he finished 82nd) and so will concentrating on this Tour and the Nationwide Tour again. This is much too big a price (Five Dimes have higher outright odds for him than Skybet, but only offer 24/1 for a top-five place) for someone who has been successful in this region.

 

[milpalm]

Lafeber 80/1 Lads. Quality player in a weak field. Likes Asia so I'll forgive him for 3 missed cuts.

Yates 80/1 Centrebet. Has played well recently and plays this tour regularly.

Dredge 25/1 Hills. A decent start to the year for a player who should win soon.

 

[steved]

I agree about Yates, got some 50/1 (slow this week)..a Davidoff man...
Also spotted Nyman playing well in Asia and SA, and waiting for this as opposed to going to Oz..66/1 Tote

 

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (0.5 units unless stated):

Ignacio Garrido to beat Charl Schwartzel -118 @ Expekt [1 unit]
Looking to oppose Schwartzel to continues to thrive off the exposure from his 3rd place finish in the South African Open. Apart from winning the 2002 English Amateur Strokeplay Championship, there was little evidence that he travelled particularly well as an amateur and in his first start overseas as a professional he missed the cut in the ANZ Championship. Acclimatisation to Malaysian conditions will be a big factor this week and he looks opposable again, particularly with an outright selection who has a good record in this coutry.

Paul McGinley to beat Charl Schwartzel -128 @ Centrebet
McGinley is another with a good record in Malaysia - he finished 14th in the individual event in the World Cup on this course in 1999 and finished no worse than 21st from 1997 to 1999 in this event at Saujana. Coming off a top-20 finish last week, he looks set to repeat it this week.

Simon Yates to beat Charl Schwartzel -138 @ Five Dimes
Yates is a regular on this Tour with a good history of success and finished in the top-10 in the co-sanctioned Singapore Masters last month and in the top-20 in the Johnnie Walker Classic. Having also played on this course in the 1998 Kuala Lumpur Open, he has a definite edge over Schwartzel.

Stephen Dodd to beat Terry Price -111 @ Paddy Power
Did consider Dodd for the outright markets at the price of 100/1 with Sean Graham, but his history in Malaysia was not supportive. However with excellent form in the co-sanctioned events over the last three months, including 4th in the Hong Kong Open, he should record his best finish in this event. It should be enough to beat Price who has played well in the last two events in Australia, but has a long history of struggling on his travels - on the European, Japan, Davidoff and Nationwide Tours - other than a full decade ago. He played in the co-sanctioned Singapore Masters last month and missed the cut, shooting 73-82, and did try to gain his Card for the Davidoff Tour two years ago, but failed at the Q-School in Malaysia. Wouldn't oppose him in Australia at the moment, but elsewhere is a different proposition.

Charlie Wi to beat Terry Price -110 @ BetInternet [1 unit]
His form dipped last year as he travelled far more than in previous years having gained a European Tour card, but Wi displayed with his top-25 finish in the Johnnie Walker Classic last week that he is still a formidable player. He is a former winner of the Kuala Lumpur Open (1997) in this country and looks set challenge for the Davidoff Order of Merit which he came so close to winning in 2001.

Prayad Marksaeng to beat Edward Fryatt -118 @ Easybets
Backing Malaysia's most famous player who finished 6th in this event last year and was 3rd in the co-sanctioned Singapore Masters last month against a player who has won this event (1998) and has a good record in this country, but has not played there since 1999 and has since struggled to make any cuts on the PGA Tour. His confidence must be at an all-time low.

Rick Gibson to beat Richard Sterne -133 @ Five Dimes
Again siding with local knowledge against none. Gibson is a former winner of this event (1991) and finished no lower than 11th in the three co-sanctioned events in the last three months. Very consistent and with good local knowledge, he has a large edge over Sterne who has never played on this Tour, let alone Malaysia.

Soren Kjeldsen to beat Steve Webster -125 @ Easybets
Very consistent player against a very inconsistent one. Kjeldsen has made his last nine cuts with two top-5 finishes, including the Hong Kong Open, and did play in the 1999 World Cup on this course, finishing 16th in the individual event. Webster misses far too many cuts and in his three events in this region, he has missed the cut twice. He has never played on this course or in Malaysia until this week.

 

[lostinamerica]

I am leaning on the forum brain trust to give me a shot in this one.

OUTRIGHTS:

Prayad Marksaeng(66/1) for 0.40* e.w. @ 5dimes
He brings local connections and noteworthy credentials to land in a marquee pairing with Harrington and Lafeber. I'd say he's worth a look.

Simon Yates(60/1) for 0.40* e.w. @ 5dimes
Another solid chance.

Maarten Lafeber(80/1) for 0.40* e.w. @ 5dimes
This boat is now at full capacity.


MATCHUPS:

Simon Yates(-138) over Charles Schwartzel for 1* @ Bet365
Some solid elements are there for a rookie mismatch.

Thanks a little for now, I'll save the big thanks for later.

GL

 

[Stanley]

Have just realised that although the Kjeldsen/Webster play at Easybets is with Steve Webster, he is not playing It will either be voided or graded with Shaun Webster as the player.

 

[lostinamerica]

3 BALL (2nd Round):

Westwood(+200) over Jaidee/Ranhawa for 0.75* @ Bet 365

Lee Westwood (2/20/03): "It was difficult last week to concentrate on scoring in my first event after working with David (Leadbetter) . . . a 66 was as bad as it could have been and it's a long time since I've been able to say that. I played well and missed a lot of chances but the all round game was good." Westwood was especially delighted that his short game, normally not one of his strengths, was particularly good, chipping in from off the seventh green for one of his six birdies."That's the first time that has happened in a long time too."

Only six players in this field failed to match or better 76 in the first round. Now that I have seen the course, I would say it clearly looks as though there are accomodating qualities for a player trying to spark a confident game. I like Westwood's chances of keeping it going today. While the gents in Lee's group are capable enough of going low, neither of them heads into the 2nd round deserving of so much support.

GL

 

[Stanley]

Mid-point update:

Garrido/Schwartzel LOST by 4
McGinley/Schwartzel Leads by 4
Yates/Schwartzel Leads by 3
Dodd/Price LOST by 4
Wi/Price Leads by 1
Marksaeng/Fryatt WON by 11
Gibson/Sterne WON (Sterne withdrew during 1st round)

Woosnam 34th
Garrido mc
Quinn mc

Not pretty and can hope for a break-even event at best as Woosie is quite some distance from the leaders. Garrido's run of triple-bogey, double-bogey, double-bogey on the 16th, 17th and 18th holes on Thursday proved to be costly. Will need Wi to hold on to his narrow lead over Schwartzel in the other double-play is this event is not to prove costly as a whole.

 

[Stanley]

Final update:

Matchups: 3-4-0; -2.03 units

McGinley/Schwartzel WON by 3
Yates/Scwartzel LOST by 2
Wi/Price LOST by 6

Outrights: 0-3; -1.50 units

Woosnam 50th

Looked like being a break-even event before the weekend ... not so at the end of it! Just as well they were only half-unit plays.

Davidoff Tour ytd
Matchups: 4-10; -6.65 units
Outrights: 1-5; +0.75 units