Sergio Garcia to win 5/1 e.w. @ Coral [3pts]
I can't find better value elsewhere in this very poor field and to back Garcia in this event and against these players should be very close to a free bet. His record on this course reads 1st, 2nd, 2nd; his record in Spain reads six events played, won once, finished 2nd five times; and in his appearances on the European Tour over the last three years, he has finished in the top-5 in over two-thirds of those events. He hasn't played in the last five weeks and has been working on course design in San Antonio, plus he does tend to finish 2nd a lot, so each-way looks better value than win-only, but if he were to finish 2nd again, it would be a small profit and there is a good chance of victory this week. Unoriginal, certainly, but he should be at least a point lower and that is a big difference in probability terms.
I can't find better value elsewhere in this very poor field and to back Garcia in this event and against these players should be very close to a free bet. His record on this course reads 1st, 2nd, 2nd; his record in Spain reads six events played, won once, finished 2nd five times; and in his appearances on the European Tour over the last three years, he has finished in the top-5 in over two-thirds of those events. He hasn't played in the last five weeks and has been working on course design in San Antonio, plus he does tend to finish 2nd a lot, so each-way looks better value than win-only, but if he were to finish 2nd again, it would be a small profit and there is a good chance of victory this week. Unoriginal, certainly, but he should be at least a point lower and that is a big difference in probability terms.
