Man I am struggling..I want to hear some opinions on something....

[double down]

I have noticed this trend for a few years and continue to fall prey to this certain circumstance......

I look at opening lines and see a few games that absolutely make no sense...Team A is clearly the better team and is either getting points or laying small chalk against a much weaker opponent...you say to yourself "wow" that looks easy..you expect the line to move all day long against you and low and behold it moves in the opposite direction you expected..this happens at the same time everyone and their brother states they love the game as much as you!!! Well, I am saying 80% of time the other team either wins or covers.. I am suckered into this every time! Any reasoning out there..should we spot games like this every day and go opposite of the public???

 

[xerri]

In college basketball you really have to look at home teams and good defensive teams. The talent difference is really not that big a difference in division 1 teams. Some teams may be bigger or more athletic but if you can shoot the ball you have the ability to win. I almost never take road favorites anymore in college hoops. Home court can have a lot of impact. The crowd can be a huge factor in the college game and it seems to me like home teams get many more calls from refs which can make a huge difference. Lesser teams tend to shoot better and play better defense at times as well. A lot of times if you look at stats they can be misleading too. If you look at the stats for W. Virginia's players they look like a great team. Their problem is usually defense. It seemed to me they played much better D at home last year and shot better which is why I took them a lot at home. On the road they were a different team. If you look at their games this year they have held bad teams to low points but gave up 85 to N. Mexico and 73 to Ark.-Monticello. If you give up that many points on the road and the home team steps up their defense, there is a good chance the home team will win. Like I said a week or two ago, betting road favorites in college will kill you in the long run. I'm not saying bet against them always. Of course there are spots where you should definitely take them but over the course of season being disciplined in laying off them or playing against them has been very good to me. You just have to realize that what appears to be the lesser team wants to win just as much in many cases and many have the ability to do so no matter how good the other team seems. Hope this helps.

 

[Nickelback]

My thinking:

Vegas oddsmakers have better information than we do when they set the lines. The best cappers in the world are the oddsmakers that set the lines!

So how do you win at sportsbetting???

I think you have to have access to inside information. . . preferably from the Vegas books. Of course you could always try to rely on luck!



[This message has been edited by Nickelback (edited 12-06-2001).]

 

[ZigZag]

I don't really think that these games hit at 80%, but I hear what you are saying and the fact that they would hit at even 50% probably feels like 80.

You can find several of these games all over the board just about every night, but blindly playing the other side really won't get you to far. Trust me I have pulled my hair out over the years with these type of games. If you play the other side you basically wind up with a play you don't really like, but are going with just because it looks like a trap. Then if it loses you are pissed because you passed up the easy winna.

I can think of 2 off the top of my head from yesterday. Houst -4 or so at Bulls. Da Bulls suck right- yeah but they roll Houston. Then they put up a half time line giving Houston some rediculous amount of pts for the game so hey Houst has to come back - WRONG Bulls roll em again. This is just fricken sports gambling. The second Utah St -14 after already beating Mont St by 15 on the road. Ohhh easy cash Utah state in a romp. Then it is 33-29 Mont st at the Half. What the F**k.

These are just two off the top of my head. My final conclusion on these type of plays is that I either Pass, wait until half or look for reasons to play the other side.

This probably didn't help too much, but just to let you know we have all been in these situations where we just can't pass up what looks like an easy winner.

 

[buddy]

double down,

I don't know how long you've been sportsbetting, but I'd imagine that you are asking the same question all of us have asked at one point or another in our sports gambling experience.

I'm an old fart.

I've been watching opening lines, closing lines, line movements, final scores, thinking, analyzing, diagnosing, evaluating, checking, re-checking, wondering this and wondering that for a helluva' long time.

What has it amounted to? What conclusions have I reached?

Conclusion #1. Las Vegas is the best handicapper in the business. They are your opponent. It is not the team you're betting on or betting against. It is Las Vegas. You must respect them for what they are able to do. The same opening line that goes out to a $10 bettor is also available to someone who bets $100,000. You do not have to be smarter than Las Vegas, but you should learn to think like they do.

Please understand that Las Vegas is trying to protect their interest. We want what they have and they don't want us to take it. AND THEY ARE NOT IN THE BUSINESS OF HANDING OUT GIFTS. They have every possible stat on every team, every player at every given moment of the day. When they set an opening line, it is set for a very specific purpose. Do you know why a team is favored by -2 rather than -2'? Don't feel bad, neither do I, but Las Vegas does.

A big part of their handicapping is based solely on statistics. And they can crunch numbers like nobody can. Another part of their handicapping is based on public perception. They have a lot of different bait in their tackle box.

Experience will teach you when a team has value and why.

When a team has lost its value and why.

Traveling situations (look at Phoenix last night in the NBA. Both loss of value and traveling situation).

These are all handicapping situations, but in truth, handicapping is the least important of three categories.

Let me re-emphasize the word LEAST.

The 3 categories are:

1. Money Management
2. Betting Strategy
3. Handicapping

Money management is, far and away, the most important aspect of sports wagering. The other two aren't even in the ballpark.

Before you make another wager, you should learn anything and everything about mm. A bettor who thorougly understands money management, also knows how to win and how to lose. He can shrug his shoulders at a win and laugh at a loss.

Let me ask you 2 questions:

1. How much of a bankroll are you starting with?

2. What % return do you expect by the end of the college basketball season?

I'm laying 5-2 odds you don't know the answer to either one.

This is your biggest mistake.

It has nothing to do with your ability or inability to pick a winner.

The following words were uttered by Junior 44. Repeat them until you know them by heart. You can thank Junior 44 later.

"Good handicapping will never make up for poor money management, but good money management will always make up for poor handicapping."

 

[THISclose]

This may not be the answer you're looking for BUT(and bear in mind I've been screwing with sports, hell, all kinds of gambling, mainly sports and cards though)take it for what it's worth from my vantage point. Piss on the Pro's.(Pro BBall) Especially this day and age. The kind of shit that happens day in and day out can't be capped worth a damn in my opinion. Playoffs, maybe..Through out the years, college football has been my best friend. College hoops not too bad but awful rough lately for me. It ain't easy, but it sure is a lot of fun when that big winner comes in eh?...

buddy's response is dead on!

THISclose

 

[loophole]

dd, may i suggest you print out buddy's reply above and post it up close to where you do your handicapping. i'm another old dog (fresh off a 1-6 night in college hoops btw) and i promise you buddy's words are gospel.

[This message has been edited by loophole (edited 12-06-2001).]

 

[Randercity]

THISclose...
Don't diss the NBA cause you personally can't cap it. Right now, in the FREE THROWS forum, JT SNEAKS is hitting like 61% for over 160 picks I believe. At HT, we combine all our talents and come up with plenty of winners every nite. MY opinion is totally OPPOSITE of you in that I feel the PROS are easier to cap, because we KNOW what they're playing for, MONEY! They don't get too caught up in the tradition bs, cause it doesn't exist anymore, thank you Free Agency and Salary Caps!

Anyway, with so many college players leaving early these days, you no longer can look at college hoops as a guaranteed winner. The best coaches in the world have no clue what to expect from year to year because of the turnover and the cutback on scholarships. My suggestion is to study up on a smaller conference in your area where you are privy to "inside" info, and HAMMER em! The smaller low profile conferences get less exposure and also less scrutiny by the VEGAS linesmaker, therefore giving you the edge if you do your homework. Study up, hammer these games, and play small plays on TV matchups by tailing someone else, or following your gut after your sixth beer and wet burrito!! This is what I do! I follow the West Coast smaller teams now, but used to hit the MAC hard when I lived back there. Find a smaller conference, do your work, and you'll get your MAN's money! It pays the same whether it's on the tube or not, don't let that influence your thinking...

Besides all this, you'll be back! We all hit the big rut from time to time, use good MM and get thru it, then fire us out some WINNAHS when you warm back up!

 

[THISclose]

Rander,
You're right about the Pro's. Exactly! They are playing for money. They've "made it". They don't give a shit half the time. You never know how many had a "big night out on the town", how many women they corraled, how wore out they are. You can't tell them shit. Sometimes they show, sometimes they don't. Don't get me wrong, I've had runs on them too(especially when I focus on one or 2 teams)..Don't take this the wrong way, but anyone hitting big %'s on ANY sport needs to start being faded. Swami faders the last week have made a fortune. Nobody "stays" WAY up

No flaming, just shootin' the chit

THISclose

P.S. I'm real close to ILL(but they are a major of course), BUT, I'm closer to Eastern. Maybe I'll start taking a harder look at them. The "old" books here never had a line on them, but now that I have offshore perhaps it's time to get on the Panthers eh?!!

[This message has been edited by THISclose (edited 12-06-2001).]

 

[Hoops]

"The best cappers in the world are the oddsmakers that set the lines!"

Not true.

[This message has been edited by Hoops (edited 12-06-2001).]

 

[NJO]

double down:

one thing I have become enormously leery of is small road favorites in college, mainly because there is, more often than not, an ENORMOUS difference in a team's play on the road versus at home, and in particular, when they are going on the road off of some nice home wins.

for me, a perfect example was last night's Nevada-Montana game -- Nevada had just blasted a few mediocre teams at home, teams very much like Montana, and now Nevada is only a 2 point road favorite versus an equally mediocre Montana team? Of course, Montana kicked their ass.

I do not play road favorites until we get well into the season, when I can see if a team has been successful on the road and actually has some sort of road success to back laying $ on them.

 

[BAINS]

Vegas puts out a line where there is no inherent advantage for either team. Bettors trap themselves into games, Vegas doesen't tell you go and bet these trap games, they use statistical probablilities and analysis to come out with a line. There's plenty of times the results aren't even close to the line set out by vegas. It's called gambling it's a gamble not a sure thing.