March Madness betting tips

[JSMOOTH]

As provided in the March issue of Maxim Magazine.

Some snipits.....

Pro Gambler, Brad Michaels claims he won 600,000$ on last years tourney. He advises the following.....

Put 100 $ on all 4 #12 seeds (ML) in the first round. At least 1 #12 seed has upset a #5 seed in 11 of the last 12 years. The usual ML bet on a 12 seed is 6:1 or +700.

Using this formula, you're risking 400 $, but just one upset by a #12 seed nets you 300 $. (last year, Gonzaga and Utah St. won as #12 seeds.)

Hedge your bet
Before the start of the tourney, books will be giving at least 3:1 odds on a good team making it to the "sweet 16". (2 wins).....

Put $100 down on your favorite team; all they have to do is win the first game and you've made a profit, guaranteed. After round 1, put $150 on the underdog they're playing in round 2.(plus the points) If the dog pulls the upset...you profit $50. If they lose...you profit $150. The best scenario is when your original team wins the 2nd round game, but does'nt cover the spread. You've just won both bets and netted $450!

This does'nt sound too bad to me.

 

[dr. freeze]

the books will be giving 3:1 odds on a good team making the sweet sixteen?......on a team that will be a favorite in the 2nd round?

are you kidding?....odds on a team that will be favored in round of 32 will be about 1:1 to reach sweet sixteen from the outset.....if not worse for better teams


plus, you tell me where we are going to find these +600 5/12 seed games......i will be waiting to see them......they will be more like +250 at the most.....

this guy is a dreamer

 

[hellah10]

I just hope that Kent St is a huge dog and that idiots from the west coast bet against them...that way I can get a fatty ML and win some cash.....weeeeeeee

The MAC shall be respected!!

 

[PerpetualCzech]

If all you need to do to guarantee a profit is have your team win the first game, then why don't you just bet on the money line for the first game?

And he wants us to put down our hard earned money blindly without even knowing what the freakin' matchup will be?? (The #12 seeds?) These crackpot theories never cease to amaze me ...

 

[dawgball]

Not that I am agreeing with the guy, but the way I took what he was saying about the 3:1 on Sweet Sixteen teams is after they reach the S16. Find a team that you like that is 3:1 to win it all at that point. If they win their first game, then you will guarantee yourself profit.

Once again, I am not agreeing with his logic, but this is the way I read the article.

 

[yyz]

No, dog.....he states "before the start of the tourney".

The bad thing is, you still need that team to get that first win, and you have nothing to show for that win.

I just don't recall ever seeing any place giving odss on teams getting to the sweet 16. Anyone else?

 

[yyz]

By the way.........I looked up "Brad Michaels" on the web, and came up with a third rate pro "rassler", and a gay porn star. (I guess the crossover to handicapper was inevitable.)

 

[nighthorse]

rassler...gay porn star.......capper. That's funny!!!!!!!!!

I'm not a rasslin fan, I swear.....but for the record I think the wrestlin guy is Brett Micheals. But I'd love to be wrong.


If the numbers are right, what was said makes some sense. The problem is, are the numbers right? You all say they are not and would tend to believe you. But, there's no harm in waiting for the numbers to come out and revisiting the subject.

 

[JSMOOTH]

the books will be giving 3:1 odds on a good team making the sweet sixteen?......on a team that will be a favorite in the 2nd round?

are you kidding?....odds on a team that will be favored in round of 32 will be about 1:1 to reach sweet sixteen from the outset.....if not worse for better teams


plus, you tell me where we are going to find these +600 5/12 seed games......i will be waiting to see them......they will be more like +250 at the most.....

this guy is a dreamer

Freeze,
(edited....see below)

As for the ML odds at +700...this is how he came up with that number. He states.....
An average #12 seed will be a 15 point underdog to a #5 seed. That translates into 6:1 odds or +700.

oh, BTW - his tip for filling out the brackets is this.....
The Big 12 sucks. The Big 12 has sent 11 of its last 20 champs home after the first weekend. In 2001, six Big 12 teams went to the dance and four of them lost in the first round. Things won't be any prettier this year.

 

[dr. freeze]

average 12 seed WILL NOT be a 15 point underdog to the 5 seed........absolutetly no way.......the 12 seed is the last point of the "bubble teams".........the 5 seed is the #ranked 17-20 teams......

Lets say Mizzou was playing Ok. State on a neutral floor......a team aobut a 10 seed most likely against a 4 seed......spread would be about 2......not 15......this guy is crazy.......

how about Georgetown....a bubble team.....they would be about a 3 point dog to Ok. State.....

also......if you think the odds of Cincy going to the sweet sixteen are 3:1 you are crazy. A two team parlay of -110 odds pays 2.6:1. A 3:1 odds would require your team to be slight dogs for both games.

His numbers do not add up at all. Think about this. If Cincy was a 7:1 favorite and then maybe a (7 point favorite in round two) a 3:1 favorite -- you tell me where you can find a ML parlay at betting on two teams -300 and-700 that pays out 3:1.

More like the odds of that parlay would pay 1:2 or so. And that is what the books will give for bet to reach 16.

 

[JSMOOTH]

Just for the record....

Just for the record....

This is not my analogy.
Sorry for sharing info. :shrug:

Here are his exact words for hedging....
Before the first game of the tourney, books will be giving at least 3:1 odds on a good team making it to the sweet 16. (2 wins)

Put $100 down on your favorite team; all they have to do is win the first game and you're guaranteed. After round 1, throw down $150 on the dog they're playing in the 2nd round. If the dog pulls the upset, you net $50. (-$100 from the original bet, +$150 on the dog.) If they lose, (as they should) you win $150. The best scenario is when your original team wins, but doesn't cover. That means you win $450.

As long as you can find these odds, it should work.

*The thoughts above are not necessarily those of username JSMOOTH, they are merely gambling info being shared on a gambling info website*

 

[theGibber1]

no doubt freeze,

dont get so upset.


breath.........breath.............calm blue ocean.......calm blue ocean............count backwards from 10






the man was just giving info

 

[dawgball]

Thank you for clearing it up, yyz. You are always so helpful. i actually did read the article wrong, and of course you were right there to point out someone's mistake.

 

[TheShrimp]

The most surprising thing is...

The most surprising thing is...

that someone of legal betting age is still reading Maxim magazine. I've always thought it was a primer for "Highlights".

Completely non-thought out and just plain wrong articles are pretty much par for the course at that magazine.

No offense, smooth and dawg, but if you get a Hustler and an Esquire every month instead of a Maxim, you'll be doing better on all accounts.

TheShrimp

 

[yyz]

Thank you for clearing it up, yyz. You are always so helpful. i actually did read the article wrong, and of course you were right there to point out someone's mistake.

wow........:shrug:

 

[dr. freeze]

why do you guys always assume i get upset when refuting bad information?

 

[theGibber1]

i just like screwing with you.

 

[dr. freeze]

lol.....cool.....only person that makes me upset on here is spanky

 

[JSMOOTH]

Re: The most surprising thing is...

Re: The most surprising thing is...

that someone of legal betting age is still reading Maxim magazine. I've always thought it was a primer for "Highlights".



No offense, smooth

TheShrimp

Are you kidding me?! You are, right? Maxim's slogan says it all...

The best thing to happen to men since women.

 

[Red Raider]

couldn't agree more JSMOOTH, I love that mag!