Marquette Villanova Preview

Northern Star

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Not a regular in the college basketball forum but I like a game tonight

I watch almost every game that Marquette plays. Last year they won by outscoring their opponent. This year they can outscore them and they play much better defense. Theo John has added a defensive presence in the middle and i believe leads the big east in blocks. Sacar Anim has become a very good defender and doesn't shoot much but seems to make the shots he takes. Those two are the role players in the starting line up.

I am on the record in past about talking about the three H's for Marquette. Hauser, Hauser and Howard. Start with Howard. One of the most exciting players in college basketball. Can drive to the hoop and once he passes the half court line he is in range. Joey Hauser is a freshman and you can tell how well coached he is growing up. Shots the ball well and plays fundamental basketball. I watch allot of basketball and I personally think Sam Hauser is the most complete player in college basketball. By complete I mean he can dribble, play defense, rebound and shoot. He doesn't take dumb fouls and never seems to get rattled during the game. His demeanor always seems cool.

If Marquette gets the lead it will be difficult for Villanova to come back. Hauser & Howard both shoot free throws better than Steph Curry.

I have watched Villanova play a couple of games recently and they don't have the it factor of years past. I rode them last year all the way to the championship. Something is missing this year. The got out early against Xavier and then folded like a cheap suit. They are not playing good basketball at all. They have lost 4 of 5 (all 4 losses on the road). They have a good home record but none of the home wins were against a quality team. They rely on the 3 for their offense and Marquette both shoots and the defends the 3 better.

In the first meeting Marquette won at home by one and could have lost the game. Villanova had the last shot. Marquette did not shoot very well but still had a fairly good lead and was on the verge of blowing out Villanova. A couple of bad shots and Villanova makes resulted in a victory of only one point. Also in that game Theo John played only 16 minutes and fouled out. The Hauser brothers were 2 for 10 from the field for 4 points. That wont happen again tonight.

I was expecting a line of 1.5 to 2 and it is 5. I am on Marquette and also Marquette on the moneyline +180.
 
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Mags

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Not a regular in the college basketball forum but I like a game tonight

I watch almost every game that Marquette plays. Last year they won by outscoring their opponent. This year they can outscore them and they play much better defense. Theo John has added a defensive presence in the middle and i believe leads the big east in blocks. Sacar Anim has become a very good defender and doesn't shoot much but seems to make the shots he takes. Those two are the role players in the starting line up.

I am on the record in past about talking about the three H's for Marquette. Hauser, Hauser and Howard. Start with Howard. One of the most exciting players in college basketball. Can drive to the hoop and once he passes the half court line he is in range. Joey Hauser is a freshman and you can tell how well coached he is growing up. Shots the ball well and plays fundamental basketball. I watch allot of basketball and I personally think Sam Hauser is the most complete player in college basketball. By complete I mean he can dribble, play defense, rebound and shoot. He doesn't take dumb fouls and never seems to get rattled during the game. His demeanor always seems cool.

If Marquette gets the lead it will be difficult for Villanova to come back. Hauser & Howard both shoot free throws better than Steph Curry.

I have watched Villanova play a couple of games recently and they don't have the it factor of years past. I rode them last year all the way to the championship. Something is missing this year. The got out early against Xavier and then folded like a cheap suit. They are not playing good basketball at all. They have lost 4 of 5 (all 4 losses on the road). They have a good home record but none of the home wins were against a quality team. They rely on the 3 for their offense and Marquette both shoots and the defends the 3 better.

In the first meeting Marquette won at home by one and could have lost the game. Villanova had the last shot. Marquette did not shoot very well but still had a fairly good lead and was on the verge of blowing out Villanova. A couple of bad shots and Villanova makes resulted in a victory of only one point. Also in that game Theo John played only 16 minutes and fouled out. The Hauser brothers were 2 for 10 from the field for 4 points. That wont happen again tonight.

I was expecting a line of 1.5 to 2 and it is 5. I am on Marquette and also Marquette on the moneyline +180.

I see the game the other way. MU has a great record, but it is fueled by a weak conference (Big East is 6th ranked), weak overall schedule (52nd overall), and very few true away games to date (8 of 27 games - crazy low number). Most good teams would have a great record if they played vast majority of games at home, and played in a conference that has no other top 25 ranked teams.

It is tempting to take MU here - Howard can really score (not efficient - more like an Iverson) - and the Houser bros are very good also. But this line doesn't make sense.

Villanova is easily the best team that MU has played this year in a true road game. Villanova is not even ranked - and is a 5 point fav???? Hmmmm..... Just feels like a trap to me.
 

Northern Star

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I see the game the other way. MU has a great record, but it is fueled by a weak conference (Big East is 6th ranked), weak overall schedule (52nd overall), and very few true away games to date (8 of 27 games - crazy low number). Most good teams would have a great record if they played vast majority of games at home, and played in a conference that has no other top 25 ranked teams.

It is tempting to take MU here - Howard can really score (not efficient - more like an Iverson) - and the Houser bros are very good also. But this line doesn't make sense.

Villanova is easily the best team that MU has played this year in a true road game. Villanova is not even ranked - and is a 5 point fav???? Hmmmm..... Just feels like a trap to me.

Here is where you are wrong. The line is based on Villanova's reputation.....defending national champion.

In terms of schedule....they both play in the Big East and Marquette has the better record. They are also beating their opponents on the road. Villanova isn't beating their opponents on the road.

Good luck naming a quality resume win for Villanova at home or on the road. Best team they beat was Florida State by 3. Losses to Michigan, Kansas and Furman in the top 25 (not many times you would count losing to Furman playing a quality team....but they are ranked in the top 25).

Marquette beat Kansas State, Wisconsin and Buffalo. Lost to Kansas before their injuries. Also had a win over a decent Louisville team in non conference.

Offensively Villanova ranks above 100 in every stat nationally. (181 in field goal percentage) Read that again. Defensively rebounds per game they rank 37 but opponents field goal percentage they rank 188th. When does the leopard change his spots....in game 29 of the season?

Marquette on the other hand ranks 65th in offense field goal percentage and 28th in defense field goal percentage.

Have you seen Marcus Howard play? When the guy is on...he is lights out. His 3 point field goal percentage in college is better than Steph Curry in the pro's. Same with his free throw percentage.
 

Northern Star

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One other thing in terms of number of road games. Pretty common for big conference teams to not have as many true road games. They play a certain number of non conference games at home against weaker opponents. Most of the road games come in conference play.

Tonight for instance:

Auburn, Illinois, Clemson & Tennessee all have played 8 road games on the season.
 

MOOSCAPELI

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Great write-up Northern Star good stuff but do you not feel like Villanova - 5 is kind of fishy here especially with all the good points that you just brought up. I just kind of feel like it's a trap line myself and they're begging for Marquette money what is your thought on that!!!
 

Northern Star

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Marquette was a 1.5 point favorite at home. Take away 3 from home team and add 3 for new home team and you get 4.5 for Villanova. Line opened at 3.5 and is now up to 5.5 so it is definitely in the right neighborhood.

I have been gambling for a long time and I don't believe in the "trap" theory that Vegas is putting out a bad number with the intentions of sucking everyone in and making out big on the game.

Linesmaker's are like banker they want the nice slow steady .......give me the juice action all day everyday and they will be happy.

I think the line has more to do with reputation than play of the two teams. Villanova is defending champion, decent record, great coach and needing a win. All good reasons to bet Villanova.......but I think Marquette is the better team and I dont think it is close this year. If they played 10 games on a neutral court I would say Marquette wins 8.
 

buddy

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The intention of the opening line is to mystify the bettor.
Suffice it to say, in this match up, bettors are scratching their heads.

The next question is:
"Do you believe the match up or the spot?"

Bottom line:
Vegas is very good at what they do.
They've been at this business a very long time.
Vegas can turn you upside down, turn you inside out and make your head spin
faster than a centrifuge.

Options:
Pass and find another game.
 

Northern Star

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The intention of the opening line is to mystify the bettor.
Suffice it to say, in this match up, bettors are scratching their heads.

The next question is:
"Do you believe the match up or the spot?"

Bottom line:
Vegas is very good at what they do.
They've been at this business a very long time.
Vegas can turn you upside down, turn you inside out and make your head spin
faster than a centrifuge.

Options:
Pass and find another game.

I like the match up. I think I have the better team and I am getting points.....which I don't think I need.
 

Musca

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The intention of the opening line is to mystify the bettor.
Suffice it to say, in this match up, bettors are scratching their heads.

The next question is:
"Do you believe the match up or the spot?"

Bottom line:
Vegas is very good at what they do.
They've been at this business a very long time.
Vegas can turn you upside down, turn you inside out and make your head spin
faster than a centrifuge.

Options:
Pass and find another game.


The intention of the opening line is to generate 50/50 business. Occasionally a book will "take a stand" with a line but you rarely know they are doing it unless it is leaked out. Linemakers have no desire to "mystify" because that will impact wagering.
FWIW sharps have move the line. Tonight is a Pro vs Joe game. Pros have Nova and Joes have Marquette.

NBL
 

buddy

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The intention of the opening line is to generate 50/50 business. Occasionally a book will "take a stand" with a line but you rarely know they are doing it unless it is leaked out. Linemakers have no desire to "mystify" because that will impact wagering.
FWIW sharps have move the line. Tonight is a Pro vs Joe game. Pros have Nova and Joes have Marquette.

NBL

You: The intention of the opening line is to generate 50/50 business.
Me: Yes. This is true. In probably more than half of the match ups. It is not true in every case. To verify this, over a seven day period, keep a record of how many outcomes are decided by three or less. Keep in mind, Vegas also needs teams to cover or lose by a wide margin to nullify ridiculous teasers (5 Dimes offers 16 point basketball teasers).

You: FWIW sharps have move the line.
Me: Ever hear of a "False line move?"
Vegas will not allow themselves to be beat
by college kids following line moves.
 

Mags

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One other thing in terms of number of road games. Pretty common for big conference teams to not have as many true road games. They play a certain number of non conference games at home against weaker opponents. Most of the road games come in conference play.

Tonight for instance:

Auburn, Illinois, Clemson & Tennessee all have played 8 road games on the season.

Well, Wisconsin has played less than 1/2 of their games at home this year. Since they are both state teams, I tend to compare each of them.

Schedule plays a big role. I'm not saying that Villanova is a great team, I'm just saying MU is not either.

Still like Villanova. Line looks funny.
 

Mags

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As usual, Vegas got it right. Villanova cover, even though they shot very poorly (34%) and MU shot very well (49%). Nova was the better team tonight though. Again, MU not playing anybody of note in a true road game this year was telling. Schedules matter.
 

Northern Star

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As usual, Vegas got it right. Villanova cover, even though they shot very poorly (34%) and MU shot very well (49%). Nova was the better team tonight though. Again, MU not playing anybody of note in a true road game this year was telling. Schedules matter.

Did you watch the same game.....I would have doubled my bet on Marquette during the game......anyone that would have doubled their bet on Villanova would have been laughed at
 

Musca

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You: The intention of the opening line is to generate 50/50 business.
Me: Yes. This is true. In probably more than half of the match ups. It is not true in every case. To verify this, over a seven day period, keep a record of how many outcomes are decided by three or less. Keep in mind, Vegas also needs teams to cover or lose by a wide margin to nullify ridiculous teasers (5 Dimes offers 16 point basketball teasers).

You: FWIW sharps have move the line.
Me: Ever hear of a "False line move?"
Vegas will not allow themselves to be beat
by college kids following line moves.


Not sure what you are talking about with College Kids following line moves... How many bookmakers do you know? How many books do you talk to daily? The goal is balanced action unless they take a stand.

Ever heard of False line moves? If the books move lines they are attempting to balance action.

This concept that Vegas know more, that Vegas sets traps.. Its just old gambling wives tales... In this time of information lines are more transparent than ever. Quite Frankly most lines are set by computers... The line movement, especially in college sports, is set by pre determined standards. There is a subscription service where books can set their risk determination ahead of time... If X amount of money hits then move the line this much...
Unless you are seeing movement from Pinnacle, CRIS, The Greek which is typically sharp outlets most movements from the other books are risk related based on pre-determined calculations.


You can continue to believe their is some cryptic Vegas system where they know more and they trap you with their lines but that is absolute hogwash. Those days are gone. The systems are much different today. Adapt or die.

I am done.
 

Hailmary

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I had Nova & feel lucky to have won. I am about even on day with Nevada 1st half & Fresno game so pulling for 2 games to push over the edge. Just looking for black on the day. Should have stuck w/ single original bet on day at this point though
:shrug:
 

Northern Star

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Not sure what you are talking about with College Kids following line moves... How many bookmakers do you know? How many books do you talk to daily? The goal is balanced action unless they take a stand.

Ever heard of False line moves? If the books move lines they are attempting to balance action.

This concept that Vegas know more, that Vegas sets traps.. Its just old gambling wives tales... In this time of information lines are more transparent than ever. Quite Frankly most lines are set by computers... The line movement, especially in college sports, is set by pre determined standards. There is a subscription service where books can set their risk determination ahead of time... If X amount of money hits then move the line this much...
Unless you are seeing movement from Pinnacle, CRIS, The Greek which is typically sharp outlets most movements from the other books are risk related based on pre-determined calculations.


You can continue to believe their is some cryptic Vegas system where they know more and they trap you with their lines but that is absolute hogwash. Those days are gone. The systems are much different today. Adapt or die.

I am done.

This
 
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