Welcome to Terps basketball. I will try to match the success I had last year in this thread predicting Maryland games.
This year's Maryland team is ranked #7 in the first AP rankings and is surrounded by a lot of hype. With Cowan and Smith staying the only real loss from last year's team is Fernandez so they return 7 of their 8 top scorers. They have added two very strong post/wing freshman players in Makhi Mitchell (6'10") and Dante Scott (6'8"). Both freshman have looked very good in practice and in the scrimmages. I expect Mitchell to be a starter by the time conference play rolls around. They definitely add a lot of depth to this team in the middle that they have lacked in the past. They also have Chol Marial coming back from surgery at the end of the month who is a total wild card. He is 7'2" with a 7'11" wing span and was once ranked as the top prospect in the country. He has had a lot of injury issues, but he is expected back by Dec. 1. He can play and could be a big factor in this teams success.
I have been most impressed with the transformation of last year's freshman class to this year. Jalen Smith, 6'10", who would have been a first round pick last year, has added at least 25 pounds since he came to Maryland and looks like a much stronger player. He has gone from Styx to Log! He is a special talent and could be a lottery pick this year. Last year I screamed almost every game that Wiggins should play more and he is going to be huge for them this year. I think he is a Kevin Huerter type player and will end up being a late first round draft pick. He just needs to assert himself more on the offensive end but he can score with the best in the league, and I expect him to have a huge year. Lindo is a guy that was in the rotation last year, but will be much better this year. He entered Maryland as a 17 year old and has now added about 30 lbs to his frame. He will be a solid rebounder for this year. Ayala is the one player who has lost weight and added quickness to his game. He has also greatly improved his shot. Serrell Smith will also add great guard depth to this team and will give them quality minutes. This is a great class and I expect all of them to be better this year.
Obviously that class is a huge part of this team, but lets not forget Darryl Morsell. He is one of the best defensive players in the county and just a solid overall player. He is the quiet leader of this team and plays well in big games.
Now here is the first wild card: Cowan. He gets a lot of hype but he also has had a lot of issues. He has to stop believing he has to score 20 a game for them to win and start distributing the ball without turning it over. He can be maddening to watch at times just like Melo Tremble was a few years ago. He had some terrible first halves last year and then had some fantastic second halves. He took over some games and then lost them some games by trying to do everything himself. He is not a great NBA player given his size but he is a very sold college player. His play will likely determine the overall success of this team. If he becomes a better distributor of the ball and turns it over less, Maryland is a final four contender.
Second wild card: Turgeon. I have been critical of him in the past especially as an offensive coach. His half court sets are terrible and his slowing down the game drives me nuts. He says they did not have the depth to run in the past, but this year will be different. I will believe it when I see it, but if he lets this team play much faster, they have the depth and versatility to wear teams out. He also has to sit Cowen when he is off. He refused to take him out of games last year and it cost them a couple wins. He is a great defensive coach and they should be a very strong defensive team once again. There is a lot of pressure on him this year. This team needs to meet expectations for him to quiet the critics.
Overall this Maryland team has the pieces to challenge for a conference title and make a strong run in the NCAA tournament. They are a very long, athletic, deep and versatile team that will create a lot of match up problems for opponents. If Cowan can distribute and Turgeon lets them play, they are a contender for the Final Four.
Game 1: Holy Cross +25.5/141
First game is always a crap shoot. The total has already moved up 5 points from the opening line. I am wary of the total because Holy Cross only averaged 67 points a game last year and lost 3 of their 4 top scorers. The spread will be decided by pace. If Holy Cross can slow the game down they can cover, but if the game speeds up they could get blown out. If this were last year, a FH Under or Holy Cross+ FH would be in order, but I think we may see a different Maryland team to start the season. Maryland's depth also gives them an advantage towards covering the number at the end of the game. I am passing on this game as it is just too hard to predict the first game of the season for both teams, but if I were forced to make a decision I would lay the 25.5.
This year's Maryland team is ranked #7 in the first AP rankings and is surrounded by a lot of hype. With Cowan and Smith staying the only real loss from last year's team is Fernandez so they return 7 of their 8 top scorers. They have added two very strong post/wing freshman players in Makhi Mitchell (6'10") and Dante Scott (6'8"). Both freshman have looked very good in practice and in the scrimmages. I expect Mitchell to be a starter by the time conference play rolls around. They definitely add a lot of depth to this team in the middle that they have lacked in the past. They also have Chol Marial coming back from surgery at the end of the month who is a total wild card. He is 7'2" with a 7'11" wing span and was once ranked as the top prospect in the country. He has had a lot of injury issues, but he is expected back by Dec. 1. He can play and could be a big factor in this teams success.
I have been most impressed with the transformation of last year's freshman class to this year. Jalen Smith, 6'10", who would have been a first round pick last year, has added at least 25 pounds since he came to Maryland and looks like a much stronger player. He has gone from Styx to Log! He is a special talent and could be a lottery pick this year. Last year I screamed almost every game that Wiggins should play more and he is going to be huge for them this year. I think he is a Kevin Huerter type player and will end up being a late first round draft pick. He just needs to assert himself more on the offensive end but he can score with the best in the league, and I expect him to have a huge year. Lindo is a guy that was in the rotation last year, but will be much better this year. He entered Maryland as a 17 year old and has now added about 30 lbs to his frame. He will be a solid rebounder for this year. Ayala is the one player who has lost weight and added quickness to his game. He has also greatly improved his shot. Serrell Smith will also add great guard depth to this team and will give them quality minutes. This is a great class and I expect all of them to be better this year.
Obviously that class is a huge part of this team, but lets not forget Darryl Morsell. He is one of the best defensive players in the county and just a solid overall player. He is the quiet leader of this team and plays well in big games.
Now here is the first wild card: Cowan. He gets a lot of hype but he also has had a lot of issues. He has to stop believing he has to score 20 a game for them to win and start distributing the ball without turning it over. He can be maddening to watch at times just like Melo Tremble was a few years ago. He had some terrible first halves last year and then had some fantastic second halves. He took over some games and then lost them some games by trying to do everything himself. He is not a great NBA player given his size but he is a very sold college player. His play will likely determine the overall success of this team. If he becomes a better distributor of the ball and turns it over less, Maryland is a final four contender.
Second wild card: Turgeon. I have been critical of him in the past especially as an offensive coach. His half court sets are terrible and his slowing down the game drives me nuts. He says they did not have the depth to run in the past, but this year will be different. I will believe it when I see it, but if he lets this team play much faster, they have the depth and versatility to wear teams out. He also has to sit Cowen when he is off. He refused to take him out of games last year and it cost them a couple wins. He is a great defensive coach and they should be a very strong defensive team once again. There is a lot of pressure on him this year. This team needs to meet expectations for him to quiet the critics.
Overall this Maryland team has the pieces to challenge for a conference title and make a strong run in the NCAA tournament. They are a very long, athletic, deep and versatile team that will create a lot of match up problems for opponents. If Cowan can distribute and Turgeon lets them play, they are a contender for the Final Four.
Game 1: Holy Cross +25.5/141
First game is always a crap shoot. The total has already moved up 5 points from the opening line. I am wary of the total because Holy Cross only averaged 67 points a game last year and lost 3 of their 4 top scorers. The spread will be decided by pace. If Holy Cross can slow the game down they can cover, but if the game speeds up they could get blown out. If this were last year, a FH Under or Holy Cross+ FH would be in order, but I think we may see a different Maryland team to start the season. Maryland's depth also gives them an advantage towards covering the number at the end of the game. I am passing on this game as it is just too hard to predict the first game of the season for both teams, but if I were forced to make a decision I would lay the 25.5.
