Maryland/CT........by the numbers

[bear]

This is for the Mad One!
For "terpman"
For terrapin backers across America!

MD averages 85.1 over teams who allow 70.9 overall ....+14.2
MD averages 80.6 on the road over teams allowing 71.3..+ 9.3
Average + 11.8
CT gives up....68.6 overall.....70.7 on road......Average 69.7

MD will score 69.7 +11.8....81.5

CT averages 77.7 over teams who allow 70.5 overall.....+7.2
CT averages 74.9 over teams allowing 70.7 on road.....+ 4.2
Average + 5.7
MD gives up.... 70.4 overall.....71.3 on road...Average 70.9

CT will score 70.9 + 5.7.....76.6

Adjustments: DEFENSE.......

Overall CT gives up 68.6 points to teams who average 73.5
D...advantage 4.9 points

Overall MD gives up 70.4 points to teams who average 74.1
D advantage 3.5 points

Difference of 1.5........... adjust off MD to 80 even

Adjustment: Schedule Strength....
Maryland from one source....Add 2.6 to 82.6

Home Court: none (not really) Give CT a point ...maybe 2 (ok 1.5)
Ct now at 78.1

Final Score : Maryland -83.......Connecticut -78

OOOOOOOOOOOOps Adjust Calhoun (in the tournament)over Williams 6 pts

CT ......78-77

 

[superbook]

Bear --


Nice work. I'm on CT +8.5

 

[bear]

Just like playing with these numbers!
I really don't think Calhoun has 6 points value but I do think this game will be under the number!

Actually, for the sake of accuracy when adjusting I should have subtracted the defensive numbers 4.9 and 3.5 from the offensive numbers because thats what they stand for (holding the opposition under what they average. The difference of 1.5 (actually 1.4 would be the same but numbers would better reflect the anticipated score.

sooooo 81.5-4.9 = 76.6 +2.6 for schedule strength gives MD 79.2

CT would be 76.6 - 3.5= 73.3 + 1.5 for home court edge

That makes it MD 79.2 - CT 74.8...................Total 154

Bet against the Huskies :nono:

good luck
bear

 

[MISTAKE FINDER]

Lets give them Hell Bear
Uconn ML

 

[gardenweasel]

bear-good post

bear-good post

i don`t give a damn..8.5 is a bad line...if these 2 were playing in a big east vs acc tourney late in the year at the carrier dome,there`s no way uconn gets 8.5.....maybe 4.....i hope we`re not getting suckered into another kansas type game(3 uconn starters getting 3 fouls in the first half or something)...the linesmakers are manipulating the public with some crazy spreads....and the officiating has been extremely suspect...hope it`s not a trap....8.5 is nowhere near the correct line at the carrier dome. :nono:

 

[parlay]

:nono:
i must disagree w/you

here is how i see it --- the guards. md has the best backcourt in college basketball, imo. the 3 headed monster that is juan dixon(1st team AA, POY in the ACC and a candidate for defensive POY(i.e. complete package)), steve blake - 2nd in the land in assists and a great true point guard that has the D skills to shut down jason williams and last but not least, drew nicholas, who can play both guards, is a great passer and a dead-eye shooter. md tends to struggle a little w/bigger, physical guards. uconn doesn't feature that. those guards won't be beating md off the dribble and md is very experienced in defending perimeter offense(see their recent battles w/duke-- a much better perimeter team)
but let's look at what gets md going --- defense turning to offense. they thrive on turnovers. guess what area uconn has struggled in the past few games? turnovers!

md has yet to show their 'A' game in the month of march w/the exception of a 15-20 min burst vs. wiscy. yet, they were very loose according to all accts at practice on thursday. i look for them to play their best game of the tourney so far, by far, tomorrow.

on the inside play of the terps and their depth inside is unmatched. uconn doesn't have the interior offense to cause md any foul trouble or even tire their big men on D. while uconn has a couple of excellent defenders(okafor and selvie), the a prone to fouls and md's game can put those 2 on the pine. there is a substantial drop-off when uconn goes to their bench inside.

i have heard much about how much uconn has improved since they played md in dec. i was at that game. md didn't play well. tahj holden played a big role in that game(i think he was still starting at the time). wilcox was a non-factor. we all know that won't be the case tomorrow. also, byron mouton was a much different player especially defensively. ever since his brother was murdered, he has been a man on a mission. imo, md has improved as much, if not more, than uconn.

the way i see it, the terps strengths happen to coincide w/uconn's weaknesses(not a good thing for the huskies). uconn's strengths(interior D and perimeter O) are not a problem for the terps. i really think this one has the potential to get ugly in a hurry. check that, that isn't md's style. they wear teams down and beat them w/their depth. tomorrow, you might just see a burst like you saw in the wiscy game.

that's my thoughts. it is the best game(betting opportunity) i have seen in a week. but again(WARNING, WARNING WARNING), i am a huge terp fan.

i will be in the carrier dome tomorrow.

i got the terps at -8. i wouldn't take it @ 10 b/c of my numbers but... i think they win by 20.

 

[maverick2112]

Based on the tourneys.........Maybe the ACC was overrated?????

Also lets not forget NC State beat Maryland in the semis of the ACC tourney and Uconn beat the same NC State team a week later.......

 

[bear]

Food for thought:

Fg% ......CT 48.4% over teams allowing 42.4%
Fg%......MD 48.3% over teams allowing 43%

3s...........CT 39.4% over teams allowing 33.2%
3s ..........MD 37.5% over teams allowing 31.2%

Rebounds: CT 40 over teams allowing 36
MD 41 '" 35
road : Both 39......................................37

CT won the boards in last game thanks largely to Okafor who had
12 with 8 blocks.............put him on the pines and CT has trouble.

Turnovers: MD averages 2 fewer than CT

Blocks: CT 1-2 more per game than MD

Assists: MD will have about 20 to CT's 18

Now, ............how is MD 8.5 in CTs backyard when they were 6.5
at home???????? CT smashed UNC (coulda been by 40+ easy) beat nc st. .........was virtually even at the half in MD (lost by 12) and is playing everyone tough D.........If I believed in traps this would qualify..........


good luck!
bear

 

[the_fix_is_on]

Here's some mojo for you Uconn fans.
<br>
<IMG SRC="http://www.geocities.com/rodeodrive/6892/UconnMojo.JPG">
<br><br> <br><br><H3>GO TERPS!</H3>

 

[loophole]

this is great stuff - madjack's forum at its' finest. on the one hand you have bear, the ultimate, incisive, connecticut yankee huskies' fan; on the other sits parlay, my bother mouthpiece who can state a case with the best of them, especially when bleeding terp red. in this thread you can see this game broken down by partisans with an understanding and feel for the game, both in support of their respective homers, both persuasive. just goes to show what a psychic experience capping these final games can be. also, for me anyway, this discussion implores restraint in any play on this game. both scenarios are plausible. both teams are deep, well coached teams, each with players who have the ability to take over a game. i believe this will be a game of changing tempos where both teams press the tempo and then pull back, punch and counterpunch if you will.. sidewise, i'll take the points, only because to do otherwise i would have to believe that the terps will break this game open at some point prior to the endgame, and i don't think that will happen, though i do give the terps the nod to win the game. i believe the game will probably go under, but will have no play on the total as this may be a game where you could see 20 points scored in the last minute and a half. i'll stand pat with a small play on the huskies and look forward to a hell of a game.


good luck today guys and thanks for the input.

 

[parlay]

loop - nice to see you, thanks for the kind words.

bear - 1st, let's stop the madness w/the transitive properties of basketball. uconn beat ncst and md lost to bcst so uconn beats md? while ignoring that md beat uconn once and was 2-1 vs ncst? md set a record for most points ever scored on unc and they did it w/10 minutes of scrub time. let's not use that joke of a squad for comparison.

there are reasons that md got beat by ncst(ncst was unconscious and on a mission) they shot 58% against a team that led the acc in fg% defense. dixon couldn't put it in the ocean and wilcox was sleepwalking the entire game ---- yet md came charging back from 18 down w/4 mins to play and damn near won the game.

the terps had put a serious effort and devoted lots of energy to 2 pre-season goals(finish the last season at cole undefeated and win the acc reg season title). the team was a little mentally tired and played like it vs ncst and fl st. i think if they had gotten to duke, they would have given a better effort but still lost.

the terps are now back on a mission and there ultimate goal --- a national title.

now, to your 2nd falacy --- uconn in there back yard?????? simply b/c they are playing in a big least arena doesn't make it their back yard. look no further than the syracuse dorm facing the stadium which has a huge 'fear the turtle sign'. you are the enemy up there to the locals. face it, the crowd will at best(for you) be a draw.

the only way md doesn't win and cover is if i misjudged this squad and they simply peaked too early and can't get it back.

as far as the acc being overrated, well, #7 seed wf took #2 seeded oregon to the wire w/o their best player(josh howard) and were winning the whole game until their best guard(dawson) got hurt and couldn't return.
ncst took uconn to the wire and if it weren't for a favorable call, OT might have decided that game and md might have been playing a different opponent.
i have said since nov. that duke is overrated and that they will not return to the final 4. unfortunately, i thought things had turned against me w/the upsets in the backet. but thanks to md. asst dave dickerson scripting the winning gameplan for his good buddy mike davis, duke is no longer playing.(while md didn't knock them out of the tourney, they certainly get an assist).

let's look at the big least -- st.john's and bc didn't belong in the tourney to begin w/ and they proved it. md put a hurting on a team that had no trouble w/st.john's(can uconn say that --- since you like the transitive property so much).
nd again used the road map md laid out to give duke a tussel and they got another team that didn't deserve to be in the tourney in uncc in the 1st rd. miami was embarrassed. pitt beat the #6 team in the pac 10 and then lost to kent st(pitt is a good team but they were the best in the big least --- indicative of the weakness of that conference at the top). uconn needed an injury to pitt's best player to beat pitt in the conf tourney final.

this comes down to matchups and md matches up well with your boys. i'll be disappointed if earl badu(he is the last guy off md's bench) doesn't get in the game today.

 

[NEWP2112]

Great info everyone! Thanks for sharing and GL!

 

[checkraiser]

Bear
nice post, alot of of info and time spent but not sure these #s are indicitive to what will happen today in a one game situation.
I think we would all agree that Uconn is playing better ball now than Kentucky played all year, yet kentucky was only getting 6.5 from Maryland, doesn't anyone find this strange? Maryland has yet to play a good all around game and yet still win by dd each game so far in the tourney. Blake coming off his worst effort of the year, bad turnovers forcing passes, bad shot selection, usually his two strong points. I have to believe he will be his normal self today and if he played like he did all year I think they probably would have beat Kentucky by 18-20.The real issue is matchups here, Maryland has the athetic type players to keep Butler at bay and the horses down low are big and strong and all of them can shoot free throws. I believe Uconns strenght is their quickness and their ability to get in transition off good defense. These play right into the hands of Maryland, Maryland will gladly turn this into a track meet if you want to try and run with them, yet as we saw with kentucky they dedicated the second half to pounding the ball in the paint and KU had no answers just as uconn won't. Okafor (sp) and selvy (sp) are nice players but Baxter,Wilcox,Randle,Holden are just too much.
It thought this line would be in the 5-5.5 range, seeing Maryland hasn't played that great and Uconn has been solid but at 8.5 it sure seems like they want Uconn money.
I'll lay the 8.5 as I see this being the best all around performance yet out of Maryland.
Truly find it weird that when these teams met Dec 3 in Wash the spread was 6.5 and today on neutral site 8.5?????
good luck checkraiser

 

[parlay]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A8544-2002Mar23.html

a pretty good read on the game. i tend to agree w/the last paragraph.

 

[bear]

Many very good points!
Many factors to consider!
Many ATHLETES on BOTH sides here!
Maryland is a more mature team!
By the numbers...... is a comparison/contrast using numbers (thats all)
8.5 seems fishy (crabcakes anyone?)

Transitive property (gimmie a break).......NC State/NC just to show that CT can play in MDs backyard...........not meant to imply Victory but that 8.5 does not make sense here!!!

Parlay,
CT.... IS... in their own backyard here ....only 3 hours away and will fill a WHOLE LOTTA those seats. As for locals...........sorry but MD will be a little lonely today.

Big Least.............maybe......heard much of the same stuff a couple of years ago.

 

[shats]

BEWARE OF THE TURTLE!

 

[gardenweasel]

maryland hasn`t needed to play well

maryland hasn`t needed to play well

because their road to the final four has been the easiest of any team left in the tournry..kentucky has underachieved all year(witness their play at the end of the terp game) and wisconsin had very few athletes...now we see what the terps really have...i really think 8.5 is to high(unless the refs pull a kansas type deal).gl

 

[wannabe whale]

I can speak to the fan advantage and there will be little edge for UCONN today.
I was at Friday's game and will be there today. I was very surprised but it felt like the Terps had the strongest following. There were just as many MU fans as UConn on Friday. With both bands playing and it being a dome-the team with Uncle Mo on their ide will hear the cheers.
Court Adv-limited to UConn for playing there more-but no fan advantage.

 

[Box and one]

Great info here.Parlay that article from the Post was good.damn.Is it to late to change my pick.
Maryland should be able to crush Conn.No one doubts that.But Conn can play with many teams that the terps didn't crush.
Just think Conn and calhoun keeps this close.I'm not predicating a Conn upset.But just hoping the game is close and under the number.
GL..

 

[gardenweasel]

from a terp fan

from a terp fan

am hearing about the great talent the terps have...and they are talented...but,take it from someone who has seen most of their games...baxter and dixon are solid,but both have a tendency to disappear in some big games against athletic clubs(much like jason williams for duke-wasn`t heard from since around the acc toueney)...blake can be very good,or very bad and force things....mouton has a tendency to play out of control and take bad shots.a very down year in the acc and maryland didn`t see many really good teams down the stretch(siena,wiconsin and ky)...here`s hoping for a 7 point maryland win and a close kansas win vs oregon.that would set-up tremendous line value in a maryland-kansas final 4 match-up....if refs don`t interfere,kansas will punish maryland.gl.