Massa in the Australian GP

[StuckinNJ]

With all of the technical changes to F1 this year, no one REALLY knows how the cars will behave, BUT

1. McLaren appears to be toast for the season since there is no longer in-season testing.

2. Brawn went fast, or at least Button did, but they didn't go very far at all. I may be wrong, but I'd guess it will be many races before both cars finish a race.

3. If any team can throw cash at a problem like the Yankees, its Ferarri. The car is fast and seems to be durable. I dont know what the budget is these days, but it was ~$350 million in Schumie's last year, and it can only have gone up.

4. Kimi was brought in to be the number 1 driver, but never has really looked like it, not even year before last, when he won the championship. He sucked last year, is easily pushed into mistakes and is awful at passing.

5. Massa will always be the test driver, just like Ron Wood will always be the new guy, but he did finish ahead of Kimi last year. I doubt seriously that if Massa is leading the race, with Kimi in second, team orders will be issued in the first race of the year - it would be kind of hard to explain that to Massa, since we're always hearing that they are equals.

6. Massa at +700 is a good bet, far better than Kimi at +350, since I'd put them at 50-50 as to who would finish ahead of whom, and Ferarri at about 50-50 to win the race.

 

[Looselugs]

Thanks man! Nice write up.

Hope you can give us more like this.

I tried a few match ups in qualifying to get the feel of the new changes and went based on the first two practices speeds.

Mark Webber over Sebastian Vettel -105
Adrian Sutil over Giancarlo Fisichella -140
Sebastien Bourdais over Sebastien Buemi -155


maybe I should try Massa over Raikkonen +100 :shrug: any thoughts

 

[StuckinNJ]

Kimi=Massa (preliminarily, at least); Those Brawns are REALLY fast

Kimi=Massa (preliminarily, at least); Those Brawns are REALLY fast

I really have no strong feeling over who will come in ahead of the other as far as Kimi and Massa goes. Since I didn't think team orders would come into play, I just thought that Massa at +700 vs Kimi at +350 was a better bet.

Now that qualifying has finished, the odds are Kimi +1200 and Massa +800. The Brawn cars qualified 1-2 and were not light on fuel, so it seems that they are simply lightning fast. Supposedly, they understeer significantly with a full fuel load, but who knows if that is really true. There are also still serious questions about their durability, but if they launch as fast as they apparently run, they may not be pressed hard the whole race. On the other hand, since when does a "new" team qualify 1-2 and win their maiden race? Of course, with Ross Brawn directing and Richard Branson paying, it may be a new era in F1.

I'll probably put a bet down on Kimi now that I can get +1200, and I'll pray for parts to start falling off of the Brawns a few laps into the race.

The weights, sorted by grid order, are:
1. Jenson Button, Brawn GP, 664.5kg
2. Rubens Barrichello, Brawn GP, 666.5
3. Sebastian Vettel, Red Bull, 657
4. Robert Kubica, BMW Sauber, 650
5. Nico Rosberg, Williams, 657
6. Felipe Massa, Ferrari, 654
7. Kimi Raikkonen, Ferrari, 655.5
8. Mark Webber, Red Bull, 662
9. Nick Heidfeld, BMW Sauber, 691.5
10. Fernando Alonso, Renault, 680.7
11. Heikki Kovalainen, McLaren, 690.6
12. Nelson Piquet, Renault, 694.1
13. Giancarlo Fisichella, Force India 689
14. Kazuki Nakajima, Williams, 612.5
15. Sebastien Buemi, Toro Rosso, 675.5
16. Adrian Sutil, Force India, 684.5
17. Sebastien Bourdais, Toro Rosso, 662.5
18. Lewis Hamilton, McLaren, 655
19. Timo Glock, Toyota, 670
20. Jarno Trulli, Toyota, 660


Average Ranking (by Lap Time) over Practice Sessions I, II, and III:
1 Lewis Hamilton 12.7
2 Heikki Kovalainen 10.9
3 Felipe Massa 5.8
4 Kimi R?ikk?nen 11.4
5 Robert Kubica 10.9
6 Nick Heidfeld 11.8
7 Fernando Alonso 12.6
8 Nelsinho Piquet 17.7
9 Jarno Trulli 5.7
10 Timo Glock 6.8
11 Sebastien Bourdais 15.1
12 Sebastien Buemi 17.2
14 Mark Webber 10.7
15 Sebastian Vettel 14.0
16 Nico Rosberg 2.6
17 Kazuki Nakajima 6.6
20 Adrian Sutil 12.4
21 Giancarlo Fisichella 15.8
22 Jenson Button 4.6
23 Rubens Barrichello 5.0

 

[spits]

Stuckin.....what information do you have that the Brawn cars aren't reliable? Everything I have read seems to state their Mercedes engines appear to be very reliable.

Do you have a link to something or are you just playing a hunch?

 

[StuckinNJ]

It was based on the fact that they had only put in a fraction of the testing miles that the other (major) teams had put in. The engine itself wasn't really in question, as you point out, but the car in general. I came across that sentiment many times in the weeks coming up to Australia.

Unfortunately, I bought in - could I have been more wrong? Brawn looks great, Ferrari not so good, and the predicted demise of MacLaren seems premature.