MasterCard Championship

[Stanley]

Outright plays (2 units):

Tom Watson to win 15/2 @ SkyBet
Finishes of 8th, 12th and 4th in this limited field event may not suggest that Watson is good to win this event, but in what must amount to one of his best seasons for many years, he did win two of his last four seniors events in 2003. He can play in wind and I would put him at a better than a 12% chance of winning most weeks on this Tour.

Bruce Lietzke to win 25/1 e.w. @ SkyBet, Paddy Power and BetDirect
The wheels rather fell off Lietzke's game after winning the U.S. Senior Open Championship last year. From winning twice in five starts, he recorded just one top-10 in his remaining nine events of the year. Hopefully, a season has brought new confidence/enthusiasm and if so, these will look extremely long odds for a player who has been multiple-winner every year on the Champions Tour.

Tom Jenkins to finish in the top-four 10/1 @ Centrebet ** UPDATE - only three places, so 50/1 at Stan James is a much better option **
Stan James quote Jenkins at 50/1, but will opt for the place-only play despite the fact that he did win an event last year. He finished 4th in three of his last events of 2003 and that is more typical of his steady, but typically winless, play. He has played in this event in each of the last four years and improved his finishing position each time. Last year, he was only two shots out of a place finish, so he doesn't need to improve much to earn a reward on this play.

 

[Trampled Underfoot]

Stanley,
Centrebet is going top 3 only!! Just like Oly the other week.

 

[Stanley]

Sh!t! That's the second time in three weeks :nooo:

Matchup plays (2 units):

Tom Jenkins to beat Don Pooley -125 @ Five Dimes
Opposing Pooley who has never played this course before and finished the season with no top-10 finishes in his last five events of 2003; Jenkins had three 4th place finishes in his last five. With course experience on his side, Jenkins should have the better week.

Gil Morgan to beat Fuzzy Zoeller -125 @ Stan James
Similar story with this matchup. Zoeller closed last season with just one top-10 in his last eight starts, while Morgan had a win, two runners-up spots and two other top-six finishes in his last eight starts. Zoeller may have played well here last year, but he is much less consistent than Morgan.

Tom Watson to beat Craig Stadler -105 @ Five Dimes
Siding with Watson in this one. This may be his first start of 2004, but Stadler can hardly draw confidence from his performances on the PGA Tour in the last two weeks: 28th of 30 in the Mercedes Championship and a missed cut last week. With him also making his debut on this course, I'd make Watson the slight favourite in this match.
(also available at Stan James and Centrebet)

 

[Stanley]

1st round plays (2 units unless stated):

Tom Purtzer to beat Fuzzy Zoeller -110 @ Five Dimes [4 units]
Tom Jenkins to beat Don Pooley -118 @ Five Dimes [4 units]
Jai Sigel to beat John Jacobs -123 @ Five Dimes

 

[Clive]

Will stick with Quigley this week at 25/1...you know he will be one of the least rusty of the group, probably played Christmas Day!

 

[lostinamerica]

OUTRIGHTS:

Tom Kite(9/1) for 0.40* e.w. @ Bet365

Bruce Lietzke(20/1) for 0.40* e.w @ Bet365

Since I'm engaging in deep speculation, I should speculate as to why I'm not taking Hale Irwin over a guy that needs to prove he can hole three foot putts while being buffeted in the wind.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

3rd Round Matchups for 1* @ 5 dimes:

Ginn(-103) over Sigel

GL

 

[Stanley]

1st round update: 2-1-0; +6.00 units

Purtzer/Zoeller TIED (Push)
Jenkins/Pooley WON by 4
Sigel/Jacobs WON by 6

3rd round plays (2 units):

Dana Quigley to beat Fuzzy Zoeller -120 @ Five Dimes
Tom Jenkins to beat Don Pooley -122 @ Five Dimes
Vicente Fernandez to beat Jay Sigel -124 @ Five Dimes

 

[lostinamerica]

For the record . . . Tewell(33/1) and Purtzer(33/1) lead a short list of high-priced players and/or grinders that fell short of satisfactory seasons last year when it comes to winning. Quigley(25/1) surprises no one by being genuinely keen on hitting the ground running. Ginn(66/1) comes to Hawaii fit and focused off this and that Asian adventure. Eichelberger(150/1) tuned up by getting beat up on the regular tour. Nicklaus(66/1) was being remembered as a legend . . . My choice Lietzke(20/1) has a "frozen shoulder"(?).

Charging in with a dearth of useful recent information, on a tour that doesn't lack for featuring sudden bursts of form, with a small field on a course Arnie can handle, might be conducive to winging it with more speculative picks in this spot in the future.

For the record . . . It seems a shame I can't enjoy a bet on whether or not Nicklaus will be firing Sunday blanks. :142hail:

GL

 

[Stanley]

3rd round update: 2-1-0; +1.60 units

Quigley/Zoeller LOST by 1
Jenkins/Pooley WON by 1
Fernandez/Sigel WON by 3

Matchups - Final update: 1-2-0; -2.60 units

Jenkins/Pooley WON by 2
Morgan/Zoeller LOST by 7
Watson/Stadler LOST by 14

Not a good start to the Champions Tour season. Watson had a shocker for the first two days and managed to oppose the winner in Zoeller.

18-holes - Final update: 4-1-1; +7.60 units

Outrights - Final update: 0-3; -6.00 units

Watson 33rd
Lietzke 38th
Jenkins 16th

Jenkins was on the fringes of a place finish through the event, but unexpectedly poor performances from the other two selections. Watson needed a final round 66 to lift him as high as 33rd (of 39), while Lietzke had the ignominy of only beating Arnold Palmer in this event.