MasterCard Classic

[Stanley]

Outright plays (total stake per play: 1.5pts)

Cristie Kerr to win 14/1 e.w. @ SkyBet, BetInternet and Victor Chandler
A two-time winner on Tour last year and ranked in the top-5 for the Tour's Money List, Scoring Average, Top-10 Finishes, etc. Kerr has become a very consistent player on this Tour and has started this season in the same form - she finished 2nd last week and a very close second to Rosales in terms of overall play. If Sorenstam is a little rusty or generally unprepared after "negotiating deals and finagling with lawyers for the past few weeks", Kerr should be there or thereabouts to take advantage.

Lorena Ochoa to win 16/1 e.w. @ SkyBet and Victor Chandler
The LPGA Tour first event in Mexico since 1975 and home expectations will be high that Ochoa can deliver a famous victory. In terms of course knowledge and crowd support, she will have a big advantage this week if she can handle the pressure. She showed that she had learned a great deal from her winless rookie season by setting records for birdies, rounds in the 60s and rounds under par last year and leading the Tour in top-10 finishes. Her accuracy off the tee was a problem last year and she has been trying a new driver over the off-season. She used it to good effect in South Africa when she shot the 2nd lowest course in the individual format, but it was rather astray last week as she fell out of contention. If she can keep it straight off the tee, she really will be well-placed to secure a home victory. * William Hill and Golfinggods offer 20/1 but only 4 places *

Carin Koch to finish in the top-five 10/1 @ Centrebet and SuperOdds
Koch was another who impressed individually at the Women's World Cup and while she is not available at the 80/1 on offer last week, she is probably better suited to the place-only market. She has only won once on the LPGA Tour - the 2001 LPGA Corning Classic - but her form over the past year has been very impressive after struggling after giving birth to her 2nd child in April 2003. She closed out 2004 with finishes of 7th and 3rd and opened this season with another 7th place finish. That makes 10/1 rather generous on securing a top-5 finish.

 

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (1.5pts):

Catriona Matthew to beat Paula Creamer -125 @ Five Dimes
Just don't see this matchup being close. Matthew has a career 7-2-0 h2h lead over the young player and has been playing very well recently. Had she not been let down by her partner in the final round, the Scottish team could have won the Women's World Cup and she finished 33 places ahead of Creamer when finishing in the top-10 in the opening Tour event of the season last week.

Juli Inkster to beat Laura Diaz -110 @ SkyBet
Opposing Diaz who missed the cut last week and played very poorly from tee-to-green, hitting only 19 of 36 greens in regulation. She has proved to be a slow starter in the past by missing the cut in her opening event two years ago and in her first two events of last year. She looks to be following the same path and so is worth opposing for now.

Juli Inkster to beat Rachel Hetherington -111 @ Centrebet and SuperOdds
Also opposing Rachel Hetherington, who has played as Rachel Teske in recent seasons. She rather faltered from a promising position in Australia last week and has been playing below her best for some time. In the last three months of the 2004 season, Inkster finished ahead of Hetherington in five of six common events and without any evidence of an improvement in form from Hetherington, Inkster should be the clear favourite.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Will give Ochoa a chance to make amends for triple bogie on 17th last week that was very costly to this one.As with Stan not sure how Annika will come out with personal probs and if plays well has beaten her before.In addition to Stans data on her she led tour in 04 in birdies-eagles-was 3rd in scor ave and girs and 5th in putting--achilles heel as in last week is the driver.Possiblity of nerves before home crowd a concern but will give her shot--
Ochoa 20/1 E/W at GG (top4)

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Event not televised yesterday here and was looking forward to watching and viewing this course as evidently no cup cake.
Poor Ochoa not only has to deal pressure of home crowd but is paired with Anikka 1st 2 days--got to be a pressure cooker.

No official plays today but got a couple 3balls I fancy-both + 155
Stupples over Davies and Moodie
Soo-Yun Kang over Hurst and Robbins

selections somewhat odd as neither had a birdie the entire rd yesterday.
The major threat in each 3ball is Davies and Hurst and each have one thing in common--they are pretty large gals which this altitude should have huffing and puffing after nine.

Kang beat both her opponents yesterday and while Davies did beat Stupples, her 1-11 record vs Stupples last 12 events would indicate this could change.1 rd under belt should help Stupples with yardage in thin air which she apparently struggled with yesterday.

 

[Stanley]

Outrights - FINAL RESULT: 2-1; +2.63pts

Kerr 3rd
Ochoa 5th
Koch 19th

A good event, but a poor return. Kerr headed into the final round with a two-shot lead over 2nd place and a three-shot lead over Annika Sorenstam, but was trailing before she even stood on the 4th tee as Sorenstam when on a five-hole birdie run. She did get the lead down to just one shot on the back nine, but this tournament had been lost in the first few holes. Koch threatened all week to be on the fringes of a top-five place, but also lost ground early in the round, while Ochoa was the only positive note of the final round as she overcame a poor finish on Saturday to snatch the last place.

Matchups - FINAL RESULT: 1-2-0; -2.03pts

Matthew/Creamer LOST by 5
Inkster/Diaz LOST by 6
Inkster/Hetherington WON by 6

Poor effort. Gave back most of the profit on the outrights with a unprofitable last day in the matchups.

LPGA Tour ytd
Outrights: 4-4; +3.12pts
Matchups: 5-3; +9.76pts