Preview & outright plays:
This is "Hogan's Alley", so called for the way that Ben Hogan dominated the event in the 1940s and 1950s. He won the event five times and at one time held practically every tournament record. Those records have since gone, but the venue remains the same. Colonial Country Club has the distinction of being the longest running current site of any tournament on the PGA Tour: it all began in 1946 when, of course, Hogan won the inaugural event.
Despite the loss of Woods and Els to Germany, this is a high quality field and an excellent tournament is expected. It is also the anniversary of Stewart Cink's spectacular collapse. It was his 27th birthday, he had strong support from the crowds which included his family and he held a seven-shot lead over Mickelson with nine holes to play despite having already suffered a hiccup around "The Horrible Horseshoe" (holes 3-5). He would lose the event by two shots, rather than Mickelson win it, and he has only had one top-5 finish since, whereas Mickelson's year just got better and better, outside the Majors.
Widely acclaimed, this is the ultimate shot-maker's course. A short, tight par-70 where the emphasis is on keeping the ball in play. There are only two par-fives and the usually narrow fairways have been narrowed further in recent years, but interestingly, the small Bentgrass greens have also been reduced in size. At 5,000 square feet, they are significantly smaller than the Tour average. If the Texas winds blow then this is very challenging course - it has hosted the US Open and the TPC in the past - that could see some very large scores. When Jeff Sluman has the best recent course form - 2nd, 13th, 3rd, 2nd and 13th since 1996 - the course is obviously in the mould of a US Open setup.
The three outright selections are Jim Furyk, Nick Price and David Toms. Furyk had apparently injured his wrist last week and maybe it was more hypochondria than real for after shooting an initial 76, he then shot three rounds in the 60s to close. He returns to a course that is well-suited to his customary fade and where he has recorded three top-10 finishes in the last four years, including 2nd in 1998. Definitely doesn't win as often as he should, but at 25/1 represents a decent chance for a profitable investment.
Nick Price doesn't really have the ball flight for this course and maybe that explains his infrequent visits here over the past few years, but he is a former winner of this event (1994) and revels in US Open style conditions. The emphasis on accuracy over putting suits Price and he should be able to retain the form of last week that saw him finish 3rd and could have been much better but for the very late birdie-fest from Damron and Verplank.
David Toms is the final choice and there can be no doubt about his form. He won the Compaq Classic with a closing round of 64 to painfully wrest the title away from our selection, Mickelson, and followed that with an impressive 11th last week that included a 62 in the 3rd round when he could be forgiven for his slow start. He finished 4th last year and like the other two selections, ranks in the top-20 of the Tour's driving accuracy stats so is well-suited to this course.
Outright plays:
Jim Furyk to win 25/1 e.w. @
Victor Chandler
Nick Price to win 33/1 e.w. @
Surrey
David Toms to win 33/1 e.w. @
Bet247
when i changed my hard disk so i would like to know if you won't mind sending me a little hello again to have you on my adress book again. Thanks!
