May 16 be Monday

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Couldn't sleep, and too early to say, so these are subject to change at the drop of whatevas.
Still waiting on 1st5's so killing time and cells.

Big board, for a Monday.

7 phil(Lee-L)@Stl(Westbrook)
phil: big edge SP, medium edge BP
Stl: big edge bats
both touring
phil 8-6@R, Stl 4-3 home to L
wind in from left 13mph
Have phil 55%.
Seems conservative and a -120 ceiling entice me.
Total will be too low.
Westbrook way too inconsistent--mostly horrible.

7 pit(Maholm-L)@Wash(Lannan-L)
pit: medium edge SP, small edge bats
BP's pretty even
pit tours while a few Nats get laid, esp w/win Sun
pit 2-1 @L, Wash 3-2 H to L (0-4 road vsL)
wind in from right-center 6mph and decent chance for rain
Have pit 57%.
Line might have iffy value if near even money.
Under, maybe, due to pathetic O's, esp. vs L, but number will be small.

7 flor(Johnson)@Nym(Pelfrey)
flor: huge edge SP, medium edge BP though Mets been improving, there
Bats pretty even.
both touring
flor 18-9 vs R incl.8-4 road, Mets 4-8 home to R
wind in from far-right 8mph and a bit of chance for storms
Have fish 66%
runline might tempt me and company B
can't go under whatever tiny # they provide due to Pelfrey's often grimness

7 chc(Garza)@Cin(Bailey)
Cin: small edge SP though his first 2 very impressive go's were both vs Astros; Garza striking out people, most outs he gets, but there's more to winning ballgames than that
Bats and BP's pretty even but Reds excel at home and stay put while chi tours.
chc 5-6 @R (even worse home), Cin 10-8 home to R
wind left to right 12mph
Have Cin 58%
Don't expect must value on line, assuming 58 is kosher.
under will tempt but should be getting 9's for this ballpark and I'd bet huge coin we don't see that.


Gonna boo if 1st5's are, yet.
Nobody cares about Monday right now anywho.
nothin' matters but the weekend
you had to be there

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

7 hou(Myers)@Atl(Hanson)
Atl: large edge SP & BP, small edge bats
hou tours to chillin' Braves
hou 4-8 @R, Atl 9-7 home vsR
wind in from left 11mph
Have Atl 73%
Line will be nasty.
RL tough with inconsistent O, possible suprirse from Myers and wind maybe keepin' balls in, not to mention Turner isn't exactly a hitter's park.

8:4 sf(Sanchez-L)@Col(Mortensen)
sf: small edge BP
Col: medium edge bats (pref L '011, too)--need to see if they can hit again like Sat., win or lose
SP's possibly even as Sanchez sees stock declining while Mortensen was good in spring training and has been decent in 1 GS & some relief--start was vs SF, mind you (anne neggen)
sf 7-9 @R, Col 3-2 home to L and 7-4 vs L overall
wind out to left 14mph
sf tours while Rox staying put
Have Col 60%
Line might be worthy as Rox stock not quite gold, these days.
Hard to say--sf ain't really smokin' and Sanchez won't get Lincecum or even Cain respect.

9:4 sd(Richard-L)@Ariz(Galarraga)
sd: small edge SP, medium edge BP
Ariz: large edge bats, by the numbers, but I'm not convinced
both tour
sd 6-6@R (only 4-12 home vsR), Ariz 4-2 home to L (while 0-4 road vsL)
wind left to right 12mph if roof open which is likely
Have Ariz 54%
I don't even want to see this line.
Over depending on Sun's--D'Backs gonna get more than 1.5 hits?

10 mil(Marcum)@Lad(Garland)
mil: medium+ edge SP, small edge BP, medium edge bats
Mil tours while Lad stays put
mil 5-10 @R (9-6 home), Lad 5-9 home to R (similar hopelessness road)
wind out far-right 10mph
Have mil 60%.
Might try this one--gimme a good line.
Wouldn't hurt to see Lad stymied again and Brews do a number on Correia and friends.


I think I need a shower to either wake myself up or drown.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Damn postponements.
Didn't need that shower--shoulda just stood outside near some ballpark.

Gonna change things for Monday.

6:4 nyy(Burnett)@Tb(Price-L)
nyy: medium edge bats or small with recency
Tb: medium edge SP, small+ edge BP
nyy travels while Tb chills
nyy 2-1@L(5-4 total), Tb 8-9 home to R (8-4 road)
dome
Have Tb 55%
Could be swingage on that if yanks blow chunks again, this time vs Lester, and the Rays somehow find a way to win with Sonnanstine.
Rays will be favoured, no doubt. Burnett's been decent making this a tougher call.
under, maybe, if the moons of Saturn get in my eyes.
again won't see a 9, no doubt.

7 tor(Drabek)@Det(Porcello)
tor: large edge BP
Det: medium edge SP as Porcello's comin' on while Drabek apparently needs some more experience or something--be nice if he could throw more strikes
Bats comparable esp. w/Ordonez on DL and Lind supposedly hopping back in; Det more so lately
tor 8-9 @R, Det 6-5 home to R
wind out to right 14mph
Have Det 60%
Line should reflect and an unlikely play, here.


Going to take my time, here.
See what's happenin' and try to add up my push money.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Could be worse...only 2 games toast, so far. Had them Tigs RL and a couple parlays, though, making those parlays pay either crap or zero.

duh...speaking of which...Porcello likely booted for Scherzer in that matchup. Add a few points to that 'cappy, 3 or 4 depending on Sunday.

7 balt(Tillman)@Bost(Matsuzaka)
Bost: medium edge bats, small edge BP and much more mojo, esp. if sweep happens, regardless of O's resultage
SP's rated even as both are majorly inconsistent but can sometimes impress
balt 6-6@R, Bost 7-6 home to R
wind in from center 8mph and--go figure--good chance for storms
Have Bost 62%
More attractive if yanks blow chunks but line will be blah.

8 clev(Carrasco)@Kc(Mazzaro)
clev: small edge SP
BP's about even and calling sticks app.even based on locale as both clubs hit much better at home.
clev 6-7@R (10-2 home), Kc 12-6 home to R (3-8 road), adding to contention but other offensive numbers concur.
wind in from right 7mph...a surprising 0% chance of rain
Have clev 53%.
Totally preferring over considerations.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

8 tex(Lewis)@Cws(Jackson)
tex: small edge bats
BP's pretty even with swingage lately while SP's also even as both have shown life lately, Lewis vs anti-powerhouses A's and M's, his past 3
tex 5-5 @R and 13-13 overall, Cws 4-7 home to R and only slightly better on road vs R
wind out to right 14mph and again weirdly clear
Have Cws 53%
Line won't be fine.
outside lean on over, if this wind holds, and clubs do something Sunday.
both touring, by the by

10 laa(Pineiro)@Oak(Anderson-L)
laa: large edge bats w/solid numbers vs L and this will be 3 straight games they've seen L
Oak: small edge BP
SP's comparable, presently, though methinks Anderson the better by year's end.
ed(the goldfish): laa travels, Oak stays put
laa 4-4 at L and 8-5 overall, Oak 6-7 home to R
wind out to left 6mph and major chance of rain
Have laa 56%
Line might concur so I may be in for some pushage tomorrow.
I'd try under an 11 but the 7 or 7.5 can kiss my pass.

10 min(Baker)@Seat(Felix)
Seat: medium edge SP, small edge BP
Bats comparably pathetic.
both travel
min 5-12 @R, Seat 6-8 home to R
wind out to right-center at 7mph if roof open which seems unlikely due to chance of you-know-what
Have Seat 60%
Baker's been decent and Felix hasn't exactly been in Cy-form, though he's been tolerable.
Line will force me to pass.
Would try under but it will be 7, maybe--might even be 6.5


GL


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