May 18 Wed.

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Didn't do them all as some of the matchups were clearly a pass from here.
Just finished in time to see opening lines and more passes now present.

Some of the numbers might be day-olds.

7 col(DLRosa-L)@Phil(Hamels-L)
Phil: medium edge SP & BP
Bats about even; col a little hotter lately but they've been at Coors while Phil has been touring.
col 8-4 vsL (aft.Tues)/3-2R
Phil 9-1 vsL/5-1H
Both travel; rox starting earlier.
Wind right to left 9mph and 50-50 for rain.
Have Phil 61%(-139)+2
Both SP's crap vs but no meetings since '09; Hamels only 1@Coors (in '09 off-year), Rosa in 4 GS/2relief and esp. blew chunks in 2@CitBank.
Philsticks might enjoy returning home but bats too quite, right now. Maybe if they demolish Garcia but fat chance.

Dempster-Volstad obviously not happenin.'
Nolasco for a good price (dream).

Gorzelanny-Gee also toast.
Zim vs Niese, likely, and maybe nats if big dog.

Small wind in at Cinci, tomorrow, but over8 might be good for a push in the rain.

8 hou(Norris)@Stl(Lohse)
Stl: small edge SP, medium edge BP, large edge bats
hou 9-20 vs R/4-10R(2nd R "road," by the weight)...again through tues
Stl 15-14 vs R/6-6 home
hou gets early flight, Stl stays home
Wind in from center 4mph.
Have Stl 63%(-172)-1
Norris with great numbers vs in 7 including 4-0 @Busch, in 4 (1.73era/1.04whip/.207baa). Lohse good vs in 14 GS esp. when not at Minute Maid--he was great there Apr27, however.
Under temptation but 7.5-120 kinda chews.

Teheran-Saunders maybe over but 9.5-110, what with the way 'Zona is hitting lately and the way braves hit lefties doesn't make it appealing. Strong wind out to right if roof open, however.

10 mil(Gallardo)@Padres(Moseley)
mil: medium+ edge SP, large edge bats despite recent pump-up of SD
SD: medium edge BP
mil 16-16 vs R/6-10R
SD 12-18 vs R/4-12H
both travel; shorter tour for mil, whatever that's worth
Wind left to right 11mph.
Have mil 57%(-122)+2
Was hoping for a better line but looks like Gallardo (quite good) and Moseley (stinky by nature) and both moving towards their mean. Moseley's been poor at Petco and crap his past 2.
I have no runline yet--see +140 elsewhere. Might try a go at +150 despite being at Petco, where runlines and overs go to die. Gotta see if the brews tear a strip off of Kuroda. Hope so...got me some over 7.

10 sf(Cain)@Lad(Kershaw-L)
sf: medium edge BP despite blowing chunks Tues.
Lad: small+ edge SP
Bats pretty even by the numbers; prefer Lad to get more hits but not sure about actual runs.
sf 8-4 vs L/5-3road
Lad 11-20 vs R/5-11home
Lad stays home and g-men should be at the airport now.
Wind out to right 12mph.
Have Lad 56%(-131)-1
Like this slightly; wind helps Lad more; gotta see if sticks show anything Tues and if line comes down (dream).
6.5, -125 for u, sucks.


A.L. before the rapture.
Was too busy to post Tuesday's.
Leaning+ several dogs.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

pass Colon-Guthrie
might be lefty Britton

7 tb(Hellickson)@Tor(Romero-L)
Tor: small edge BP
SP's and bats look comparable.
tb 7-3 vs L/5-1road
Tor 14-16 vsR/5-7home
Jays come home--maybe early with this rain in Det, tb tours from Fla.
Wind right to left 14mph outside the retractable dome as it likely rains or is at least as crappy as T.O. is today.
Have Tor 54%(-124)-2
Un7+100 a thought as both have good pens, as well as the SP's, but both clubs hitting well letly and Hirschbeck is doing GreatAm, tonight(Tues).
Good one to watch.
Go Jays!
(check out Thames, just called up)
Not sure who chucks for Jays with Tues rainout--should keep Romero on schedule as he blew in last he pitched after a long layoff. Just methinks.

7 det(Coke-L)@Bost(Buchholz)
Bost: medium edge SP, BP and bats
det 11-15 vs R/5-9road
Bost 6-7 vs L/4-3 home
det tours, Bost chills
Wind in from center 11mph and 40% chance of rain.
Have Bost 65%(-161)+3
Coke deteriorating while Buchholz is coming to life. Sox also hitting a lot better vs L, so far this year.
Tough line.
Drop the call some if Porcello.

8 tex(Ogando)@Kc(Hochevar)
tex: large edge SP, small edge bats
BP's maybe even though KC's pen takes another thrashing and then favours tex; pens should be a factor in this one, too.
tex 15-13 vs R/6-5road
Kc 15-15 vs R/12-7 home
tex travels, not KC
Wind right to left 10mph and small(er) chance for some rain.
Have tex 60%(-140)+1
Call borderline conservative depending on Tues' action. Still, KC totally (usually) prefers home--tex same. 1st looks like a no-brainer. Hochevar can't keep the ball in the park.
tex team total ov4 sounds groovy

8 clev(Masterson)@Cws(Peavy)
clev: small edge SP, medium edge BP and bats
clev 17-9 vs R/7-7road
Cws 14-19 vs R/4-8 home
just clev travelling
Wind left to right 8mph.
Have clev 56%(+107)+7
Best value by my crooked numbers. Masterson may be averachieving but he's still reasonably solid and the thrashing in his last--vs tb--was against a club he's always had trouble with...not the case with Pale Hose in 7 GS vs, including his opener back on Apr3 at home; he's also been great on the road in 3. Peavy too early to tell but Petco Cy days are gone and he'll need help from a pretty grim BP.

Pass Pavano-McCarthy or else small twins at +157

10 laa(Weaver)@Seat(Vargas-L)
laa: medium edge SP, small edge BP, large edge bats, still hitting L much better than R and this we will be--what?--5 straight days they've seen L?
laa 8-7 vs L/4-6road
Seat 12-15 vs R/7-8home
laa only traveller
Wind in from left at 7mph.
Have laa 61%(-134)+3
Weaver has lost 3 straight after grand start but good chance to rebound here, and he was better in his last than the one prior. Vargas has been great past 2 but he's very erratic and home numbers, in 5, aren't great.
Line smaller than it woulda been 2 weeks ago.
Need so se Tues'.
Might get -1 at close to even, or do something else.


GL


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[EXTRAPOLATER]

Dan Duffy, KC, is a 22-yr old lefty.
drafted 3rd round
#'s look okay--1st year AAA this season--but who knows.
Likely an improvement over Hochevar but tex's OPS is about 70 points higher vs L than R.
only 1-5 @L on road, pre-Danks thing
line staying same
:shrug: