Posted some of this in reply to another thread, but thought it might be worth sharing on its own.
One great thing about March is being able to see a lot of various teams in a short amount of time. After watching Iowa yesterday, I couldn't believe how weak they are on the inside, especially in terms of rebounding. Yes, their offense can be amazing--esp when they are hitting 3's and shooting high % overall. But they really struggled on the boards on both ends against Indy and, just out of curiosity, I checked the stats for all of their losses this year. Not surprisingly, they were out-rebounded in each.
42-30 purdue
52-24 ill
50-32 Iowa st
43-26 wisc
49-38 rutgers
36-31 purdue
53-43 psu
40-37 mich
41-38 ill
Of course, you can say that it's stating the obvious--who controls the boards generally always dictates who wins. But I think that's even more apparent for Iowa. They were even in good position many times yesterday, with bodies on offensive rebounders, but they weren't physical enough to secure many of the rebounds, especially 50/50s.
Iowa's offensive fireworks clearly give them the opportunity to win any game. But hard to argue against purdue which also has some pretty good offensive upside with ivey as well as big inside presence with edey and williams.
I'm sure this post will guarantee that Iowa will be lights out (and handle the glass) and win going away. But the stats don't lie--I see value in the small number or even ml with Purdue. Also think that emotional, miracle ending has a way of causing a hangover.
I'm filling out a decent par with Purdue -2 and putting two more units on ml alone.
One great thing about March is being able to see a lot of various teams in a short amount of time. After watching Iowa yesterday, I couldn't believe how weak they are on the inside, especially in terms of rebounding. Yes, their offense can be amazing--esp when they are hitting 3's and shooting high % overall. But they really struggled on the boards on both ends against Indy and, just out of curiosity, I checked the stats for all of their losses this year. Not surprisingly, they were out-rebounded in each.
42-30 purdue
52-24 ill
50-32 Iowa st
43-26 wisc
49-38 rutgers
36-31 purdue
53-43 psu
40-37 mich
41-38 ill
Of course, you can say that it's stating the obvious--who controls the boards generally always dictates who wins. But I think that's even more apparent for Iowa. They were even in good position many times yesterday, with bodies on offensive rebounders, but they weren't physical enough to secure many of the rebounds, especially 50/50s.
Iowa's offensive fireworks clearly give them the opportunity to win any game. But hard to argue against purdue which also has some pretty good offensive upside with ivey as well as big inside presence with edey and williams.
I'm sure this post will guarantee that Iowa will be lights out (and handle the glass) and win going away. But the stats don't lie--I see value in the small number or even ml with Purdue. Also think that emotional, miracle ending has a way of causing a hangover.
I'm filling out a decent par with Purdue -2 and putting two more units on ml alone.
