Round 4 play (4pts):
Kevin Stadler to beat Matt Every -110 @ Paddy Power
Stadler had been one of my 'to back' guys this week and will do so at a good price/matchup. In his own words: "I look forward to coming here every year. I tend to play well here. I think I'm just in a good place mentally down here. I come and have fun and just enjoy my time here ... I've played pretty well. The course just suits me. I typically drive it pretty good, and you can get away with small misses here, which tends to be kind of how I do it." His record shows that he does play well here: he has made the cut in all five previous visits with top-20 visits in three of them and when he didn't finish in the top-20, he had still been in contention that week (9th early on in 2008; 2nd at the cut last year). He currently lies 13th, and while a quadruple-bogey eight at his ninth hole yesterday might have derailed his round, he bounced back with a couple of birdes and is still in contention at seven shots off the lead. Every would have started the day in the top-3, but took a double-bogey six on the last hole which, together with his poor record in this position - he has never broken par when starting the final round of a PGA Tour event in the top-10 - should make today a difficult round for him.
[unofficial rd4 system plays: Allenby tb Turnesa -163; Howell tb Baird -110; Allenby tb Baird -120; Ames tb Petrovic -133; Stroud tb Summerhays -138; Allenby tb Stroud -130]
