Same as before with Mosley-Cotto. Hatton +1.5 pts. after 3 rounds Lederman card. Price is -180. With Mosley it was -150 which was excellent value. Mosley could box and Cotto is a slower starter (or was). Thinking maybe Hatton will come out like gangbusters, and Mayweather may let him have a round or 2 upfront. Doubt we will see a Hatton knockdown so quick. Thoughts?
Mayweather-Hatton round prop bet( attn: Zerwas)
- Thread starter frank s.
- Start date
The Mosley fight actually started at -130 which was sick value considering those styles..... you'd think Hatton could grab 1 of the first 3 rounds- it seems to be priced about right. I could see Hatton really going for it in one of the first three and Floyd spending some time assesing what Hatton has while Hatton outworks him.
Good bet! 
I actually wanted to post that earlier, but didint have the time.
The reasoning is the the same from last time.
The first prop seems to be good, but the others - where there is a +x for hattan arent bad either.
In facht I spent some time calculatin the value.
When you determine that Mayweathers chance to win a round are twice as high as Hattons the lines for the first event should be 42%. (with 100% payout)
And that premise is wrong. If you dont count a win by ko, the chance that Mayweahter would be ahead after 5 rounds would be about 4 to 1, so in this case you should recieve more than 20% on Mayweather.
And this would be even less after 12 rounds...
So - without going too much into detail - this looks like a reall solid bet.
I dont have such a strong belief in Lederman, but anyways...
BTW, bodog cannot get their props right, 5dimes offers roughly the same but the lines are completely different.
I actually wanted to post that earlier, but didint have the time.
The reasoning is the the same from last time.
The first prop seems to be good, but the others - where there is a +x for hattan arent bad either.
In facht I spent some time calculatin the value.
When you determine that Mayweathers chance to win a round are twice as high as Hattons the lines for the first event should be 42%. (with 100% payout)
And that premise is wrong. If you dont count a win by ko, the chance that Mayweahter would be ahead after 5 rounds would be about 4 to 1, so in this case you should recieve more than 20% on Mayweather.
And this would be even less after 12 rounds...
So - without going too much into detail - this looks like a reall solid bet.
I dont have such a strong belief in Lederman, but anyways...
BTW, bodog cannot get their props right, 5dimes offers roughly the same but the lines are completely different.
Good bet!
I actually wanted to post that earlier, but didint have the time.
The reasoning is the the same from last time.
The first prop seems to be good, but the others - where there is a +x for hattan arent bad either.
In facht I spent some time calculatin the value.
When you determine that Mayweathers chance to win a round are twice as high as Hattons the lines for the first event should be 42%. (with 100% payout)
And that premise is wrong. If you dont count a win by ko, the chance that Mayweahter would be ahead after 5 rounds would be about 4 to 1, so in this case you should recieve more than 20% on Mayweather.
And this would be even less after 12 rounds...
So - without going too much into detail - this looks like a reall solid bet.
I dont have such a strong belief in Lederman, but anyways...
BTW, bodog cannot get their props right, 5dimes offers roughly the same but the lines are completely different.
First off im not sure if i thanked you guys for sniffing out the first one (cotto/Mosley) but when i saw you guys mention it i was all over it. I actually thought Mosley loss the first two rounds and won the third easy but Letterman gave him round two. This one i think is a lot more risky. I know the juice is more but i think the value with the first one was way more. Good luck guys i will sit this part out. I think if floyd wins the first round you guys might be looking for a pitty round in round three from Letterman. tough one. wish it was Floyd getting the 1.5.
Yep, the one for Mosley vs. Cotto might have been better than this one.
Actually, I think this is/was a good Hedgebet for Mayweather backers.
bet365 has Mayweather to be ahead after 3 rounds on Ledermans card at 80%, I played both.
If Mayweather isnt ahead, I win all my bets on Hatton +, and if he is ahead I can still win my Hatton+ props + the one on Mayweather....
Actually, I think this is/was a good Hedgebet for Mayweather backers.
bet365 has Mayweather to be ahead after 3 rounds on Ledermans card at 80%, I played both.
If Mayweather isnt ahead, I win all my bets on Hatton +, and if he is ahead I can still win my Hatton+ props + the one on Mayweather....
