Gold Sheet breakdown of fight
Floyd Mayweather (24-0, 18 KOs)
vs. Diego Corrales (33-0, 27 KOs)
WBC Super-featherweight Title (130 pounds)
Saturday, January 30 at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas, Nevada
Mayweather -145, Corrales +120; Goes the distance -130, Doesn?t go +110
This is one of the more attractive fights in perhaps the most talented division in boxing. Olympic bronze medalist Floyd Mayweather has been carefully guided to the top of the division. His father, Floyd Sr., was in charge of his career until a rift developed between the two last year. Although his father was the "co-trainer" for Mayweather?s most recent fight, the elder Mayweather is out of the picture now, and has begun training Oscar De La Hoya. The acrimony created by the family squabble regarding Mayweather?s management has been a distraction. Mayweather even went to the extreme of having his father evicted from a home Floyd Jr. owned and was allowing Floyd Sr. to use.
Mayweather is flashy, quick, slips punches well, has excellent hand speed and at times looks like a future hall-of-famer. However, he?s also prone to mental lapses during fights and lacks one-punch KO power.
In his last fight, he went up to 135-pounds to face Emanuel Burton, a journeyman who had lost 8 of his previous 9 bouts. Mayweather, whose fights have been few and far between in the last year, wanted a warmup against a bigger man in preparation for Corrales. The fight was held in Detroit, Mayweather?s home town, and the resulting disappointing gate prompted one prominent promoter to say Floyd Jr. "can?t sell a ticket." Mayweather hit Burton with everything he had, yet could do no more than bloody the larger man?s nose. The fight was ruled a "knockout" because Burton?s manager suspiciously threw in the towel in the ninth round. Burton, who had laughed at Mayweather?s lack of power earlier in the fight, didn?t appear to be in imminent danger at the time.
Diego Corrales was a gang member at 13, and, by one account, was "flat out loco" by 16 when he was pushed in the direction of the nearest ring. The lanky Corrales is six feet tall and has struggled to make weight at 130 pounds, but has never faltered against an opponent. Thanks to outstanding punching mechanics, he possesses tremendous power, perhaps the best in the division, and is a solid technician in the ring. Corrales is a fighter in the mold of Felix Trinidad; a tall, accurate, powerful puncher who wears down an opponent by going to the body.
Corrales has had most of his problems outside the ring. This fight was moved up on the calendar because Corrales goes to trial in February on assault charges involving his ex-girlfriend. Although the fight has been hyped as perhaps Corrales? last before he goes to jail, Corrales himself appears confident he will be acquitted of all charges.
In our view, the value in this fight lies with the underdog, Corrales. True, Mayweather was trying out some tactics and scraping off the rust in his fight with the lightly-regarded Burton. Floyd Jr. wanted to see what he could do against a bigger man. But he lost focus, got bored, and was caught on the ropes several times. If that happens against Corrales, Mayweather will be sliced up like a slab of bacon. If his new handlers (West Coast rap promoter Jay Prince & Co.) don?t recognize this, Mayweather is doomed. We expect they will make the adjustment and that Mayweather will devise a different plan. But he hasn?t been in with anyone who?s got the power of Corrales. Mayweather will come out quickly, probably winning the early rounds. Floyd Jr. has great head movement, but Corrales will methodically go to the body. Mayweather doesn?t have the power to put Corrales down, so it will be a long fight. Look for the second half of the bout to be dominated by Corrales, whose body shots will take their toll.
There are two unanswered questions. One is, will Mayweather have a big enough lead to hang on? The other is will Mayweather (a part-time Las Vegas resident) have any political edge over Corrales (an alleged felon) in the minds of the judges who will score the fight? We think the fight will be decided on what happens inside the ring.
Corrales is the underdog largely because he?s not as well known as Mayweather. He wasn?t an Olympian. He?s got tattoos, a bad rep, and an attitude problem. He?s mean. "Pretty Boy" Floyd Mayweather has the name, the good looks, the hip management, and he comes off sounding like Ray Leonard in the interview room. In a fist fight we?d rather have the bigger guy with the bigger punch going for us as an underdog. The price (which was obviously more attractive a few weeks ago when Mayweather was -170) dictates the percentage side is Corrales. A wager on the draw (if you can find it) might well be worth a smaller play.
