McDonald's LPGA Championship

[Stanley]

Outright plays (1.5pts):

Grace Park to win 18/1 e.w. @ Stan James
A much higher price than I expected. Park has finished in the top-3 in five out of nine starts this year and lost out only via a playoff to Annika Sorenstam last year. Clearly the 2nd best female player in the world at the moment should be at a lower price.

Lorena Ochoa to win 28/1 e.w. @ Stan James
Ochoa has threatened to be up with the top players for a couple of years and finally looks to be achieving the consistency that she lacked last year. She secured her first Tour win last month when not a selection for once and has seven top-10 finishes from nine starts this years. With a top-20 finish last year earning her valuable course experience, she should certainly continue her run of top-10 finishes.

Cristie Kerr to win 33/1 e.w. @ Stan James
A top-10 finish last week was good preparation for this event as Kerr's game looked to be in excellent shape: she hit over 85% of fairways and 80% of greens in regulation and that level of play will be required around DuPont. She completes a trio of players who have already won this season and have been consistent contenders: she has finished in the top-10 in five out of nine starts in 2004. She is in the form to repeat her top-5 finish of 1999.

 

[Clive]

Gone for;

Ward 100/1 BlueSq...decent bet
Park 18/1 SJ...middle size bet
and Kerr 39/1 Nordic...small bet

 

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (1.5pts unless stated):

Laura Davies to beat Carin Koch -111 @ Stan James
Koch has finished ahead of Davies only once in seven common events this year and that was by a single shot in the LPGA Corning Classic. Her record on this course also does measure well against Davies, so I can only see one winner here.

Lorie Kane to beat Becky Morgan -111 @ Centrebet
Morgan has showed some good form this year, but still not enough to be at the same level as Kane. In their last seven common events, Kane was finished ahead of Morgan on six occasions. Once again, I'll side with the player that dominates the matchup.
(also available at Nordicbet and Expekt)

Grace Park to beat Karrie Webb +100 @ Stan James [3pts]
And again. Park leads Webb 13-4-1 h2h over the last year, so it makes her underdog odds difficult to understand. Webb did win last week, but had shown little previous sign of doing so this year, while Park has been incredibly consistent as outlined when she was selected for the outright market. Park finished 19 shots ahead of Webb last year and while it should be closer, it is the South Korean who should prevail yet again.
(also available at William Hill)

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Tough field with all the guns in it --but will try and slide one in there.
Becky Morgan to place 13/1 @ 5 Dimes

Figured this tourney would be a pass and didn't expect these odds which are almost 4 times her break even place return for year (a 2nd and 3rd in 9 events) --and only out of top 17 in 2 of her 9 events and did finish 6th here last year.. If she hangs close going into final rd she might have chance to get a piece as she ranks ahead of all the guns (Annika-Ochoa-Pak and Park) in 4th rd scor ave.
Worth a look considering odds to my thinking anyway.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

adding in running Ochoa to place 10/1 top 4

 

[Stanley]

Outrights -

Final update: 1-2; -0.38pts

Park 3rd
Ochoa 8th
Kerr 17th

A good closing round of 68 by Park to finish in the places, having got to within two shots of Sorenstam on the back nine. Had hoped for a profit on these plays as Ochoa had been 2nd with one round to play, but ran out of steam as the bad weather on Friday caused two rounds to be played on Sunday.

Matchups -

Final update: 1-2-0; -0.33pts

Davies/Koch LOST by 8
Kane/Morgan LOST by 1
Park/Webb WON by 11

An easy win for Park in the double-play, but denied a profit overall when Morgan finished strongly to just edge back ahead of Kane.

LPGA Tour ytd
Outrights: 9-27; -1.53pts
Matchups: 32-16; +34.12pts