McDonald's LPGA Championship
- Thread starter DOGS THAT BARK
- Start date
72 holes
Hurst -115 over Meena Lee @ Pinn
Gulbis -125 over Pressel @ SB
Wie -125 over Creamer @ SB
Wie -125 over Webb @ Expekt
Hurst -115 over Meena Lee @ Pinn
Gulbis -125 over Pressel @ SB
Wie -125 over Creamer @ SB
Wie -125 over Webb @ Expekt
Quite like capping horse races Agent--You have one dropping from stakes races back to claiming ranks. I am thinking she will be in good spirits as she finally got in top 70 (on the #) despite being qualifying event.
I think she is top 5 material on lpga--and like her consistantancy.
Despite not pulling for her in open qualifying I'll give her credit for trying to qualify--had they given her exemption into mens open like they are going to do on LPGA for 2nd straight year--I would have been pissed.
She will make a cut on PGA at some point in time given enough free rides--but that will be limit of her competativeness vs best on pga.
It is very funny to watch a couple of compliers hype her up yet they had lines on her to qualify for open they gave the optomist 8/1 for her to make it-- yet shut out those that wanted to fade her with an unbettable 1/20.
I think she is top 5 material on lpga--and like her consistantancy.
Despite not pulling for her in open qualifying I'll give her credit for trying to qualify--had they given her exemption into mens open like they are going to do on LPGA for 2nd straight year--I would have been pissed.
She will make a cut on PGA at some point in time given enough free rides--but that will be limit of her competativeness vs best on pga.
It is very funny to watch a couple of compliers hype her up yet they had lines on her to qualify for open they gave the optomist 8/1 for her to make it-- yet shut out those that wanted to fade her with an unbettable 1/20.
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Outright plays (total stake per play: 1pt)
Lorena Ochoa to win 12/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler
The best player on Tour this year. She ranks #1 in scoring average and on the Money List, with the primary reason behind both of these position being her rank as #1 in greens in regulation. Even when she recorded her worst finish of the season last week, it was only as a result of struggling on the greens - she still ranked 1st in greens in regulation last week and there is no more important stat in a major. Returning from a break and being the week before a major, it is easy to discard last week's performance and instead look at her previous six tournaments, which started with a major, and included a top-2 finish every time. She finished 5th last year on this course, so there appears little reason for such a large jump in odds from the 7/1 to 8/1 that she has been in her last few events.
Paula Creamer to win 22/1 e.w. @ Stan James, Victor Chandler and BetDirect
The fact that Bulle Rock was used for the first time last year presents Creamer with an unusual equity in the amount of course history with the rest of the field and that should be some advantage this week, particularly as she finished 3rd last year when everyone played the course for the first time. She comes into this event in good form with finishes of 3rd, 4th, 6th and 9th in her last four starts and has finished in the top-20 of each major since the 2004 U.S. Women's Open when she was still competing as an amateur. She won twice last year and it would be a big surprise if she didn't win at least twice again this year.
Cristie Kerr to win 25/1 e.w. @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
Ranked 3rd and ahead of Annika in the scoring average stats, it is a surprise that she is ranks 6th in most lists of odds. She has already won once and finished in the top-5 three times in her five starts since the Tour left the West Coast and she recorded top-10 finishes in three of the four majors last year, including two top-5 finishes. Her one failure to record a top-10 finish was in this event, but she had been in that position at the start of the final round. There is certainly plenty of value in these odds as she really should be shorter than Creamer.
Lorena Ochoa to win 12/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler
The best player on Tour this year. She ranks #1 in scoring average and on the Money List, with the primary reason behind both of these position being her rank as #1 in greens in regulation. Even when she recorded her worst finish of the season last week, it was only as a result of struggling on the greens - she still ranked 1st in greens in regulation last week and there is no more important stat in a major. Returning from a break and being the week before a major, it is easy to discard last week's performance and instead look at her previous six tournaments, which started with a major, and included a top-2 finish every time. She finished 5th last year on this course, so there appears little reason for such a large jump in odds from the 7/1 to 8/1 that she has been in her last few events.
Paula Creamer to win 22/1 e.w. @ Stan James, Victor Chandler and BetDirect
The fact that Bulle Rock was used for the first time last year presents Creamer with an unusual equity in the amount of course history with the rest of the field and that should be some advantage this week, particularly as she finished 3rd last year when everyone played the course for the first time. She comes into this event in good form with finishes of 3rd, 4th, 6th and 9th in her last four starts and has finished in the top-20 of each major since the 2004 U.S. Women's Open when she was still competing as an amateur. She won twice last year and it would be a big surprise if she didn't win at least twice again this year.
Cristie Kerr to win 25/1 e.w. @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
Ranked 3rd and ahead of Annika in the scoring average stats, it is a surprise that she is ranks 6th in most lists of odds. She has already won once and finished in the top-5 three times in her five starts since the Tour left the West Coast and she recorded top-10 finishes in three of the four majors last year, including two top-5 finishes. Her one failure to record a top-10 finish was in this event, but she had been in that position at the start of the final round. There is certainly plenty of value in these odds as she really should be shorter than Creamer.
Matchup plays (4pts each):
Shi Hyun Ahn to beat Meena Lee -111 @ Expekt
Opposed Lee profitably last week and will do so again. In her last seven starts, Ahn has finished in the top-25 every time and her record against Lee over that period is six wins and one tie. With a top-25 finish on this course last year, I fully expect Ahn to match that mark again this week and continue her undefeated run against Lee.
Juli Inkster to beat Laura Diaz -143 @ NordicBet
Opposed Diaz as well last week, but not as profitably, however Inkster should be far more dependable than Prammanasudh. For instance, even though she finished two shots behind Diaz last week, she had finished ahead of her in every single common event over the previous eleven months (12 events). Inkster also finished ahead of Diaz on this course last year, so this matchup should really make amends for last week's loss with Prammanasudh.
Pat Hurst to beat Julieta Granada -111 @ Expekt
The selection also lost this matchup last week, but as with the Inkster-Diaz matchup, the selection had previously dominated before last week. In their previous six common events, Hurst had won five times and there had been one tie. And Granada should also be handicapped by the course this week. It is one of the longer courses on the LPGA Tour, while Granada is one of the shortest hitters, and she has no previous experience here. Hurst finished 7th last year and deserves to be the favourite.
Lorena Ochoa to beat Michelle Wie -110 @ SkyBet and BetFred
Looking to oppose Wie this week. She did play at practise round at Bulle Rock last Monday, but then spent four days at Canoe Brook Country Club preparing for the U.S. Open qualifier on Monday. That is an awful lot of preparation at one venue for an event and then it can only be demoralising, particularly for a 16-year-old, to not qualify in the manner in which she did. It really was a golden opportunity to make history and she threw it away. She should struggle to raise her game to the same level even for a major on the LPGA Tour as she must be mentally exhausted, at least. So to be able to oppose her with the top female player in the game at the moment is a bonus at these odds.
(also available at Five Dimes)
Karrie Webb to beat Michelle Wie +110 @ NordicBet
Same angle here. Webb's game has been re-born since she won the Nabisco Championship in such dramatic fashion. She now ranks 2nd behind Ochoa in scoring average and on the Money List and ahead of Annika in both categories, and it has been a long time since that rivalry was so real. In short, these are two good opportunities to oppose a potentially burned-out Wie with the best two players in the women's game.
(also available at Olympic and Expekt)
* can't remember the last time that I opposed DTB though! :shrug:
Shi Hyun Ahn to beat Meena Lee -111 @ Expekt
Opposed Lee profitably last week and will do so again. In her last seven starts, Ahn has finished in the top-25 every time and her record against Lee over that period is six wins and one tie. With a top-25 finish on this course last year, I fully expect Ahn to match that mark again this week and continue her undefeated run against Lee.
Juli Inkster to beat Laura Diaz -143 @ NordicBet
Opposed Diaz as well last week, but not as profitably, however Inkster should be far more dependable than Prammanasudh. For instance, even though she finished two shots behind Diaz last week, she had finished ahead of her in every single common event over the previous eleven months (12 events). Inkster also finished ahead of Diaz on this course last year, so this matchup should really make amends for last week's loss with Prammanasudh.
Pat Hurst to beat Julieta Granada -111 @ Expekt
The selection also lost this matchup last week, but as with the Inkster-Diaz matchup, the selection had previously dominated before last week. In their previous six common events, Hurst had won five times and there had been one tie. And Granada should also be handicapped by the course this week. It is one of the longer courses on the LPGA Tour, while Granada is one of the shortest hitters, and she has no previous experience here. Hurst finished 7th last year and deserves to be the favourite.
Lorena Ochoa to beat Michelle Wie -110 @ SkyBet and BetFred
Looking to oppose Wie this week. She did play at practise round at Bulle Rock last Monday, but then spent four days at Canoe Brook Country Club preparing for the U.S. Open qualifier on Monday. That is an awful lot of preparation at one venue for an event and then it can only be demoralising, particularly for a 16-year-old, to not qualify in the manner in which she did. It really was a golden opportunity to make history and she threw it away. She should struggle to raise her game to the same level even for a major on the LPGA Tour as she must be mentally exhausted, at least. So to be able to oppose her with the top female player in the game at the moment is a bonus at these odds.
(also available at Five Dimes)
Karrie Webb to beat Michelle Wie +110 @ NordicBet
Same angle here. Webb's game has been re-born since she won the Nabisco Championship in such dramatic fashion. She now ranks 2nd behind Ochoa in scoring average and on the Money List and ahead of Annika in both categories, and it has been a long time since that rivalry was so real. In short, these are two good opportunities to oppose a potentially burned-out Wie with the best two players in the women's game.
(also available at Olympic and Expekt)
* can't remember the last time that I opposed DTB though! :shrug:
Outrights:
Patricia Meunier-Lebouc(125/1) e.w. @ Sportingbet
- - An important golf championship - men, women or children - is always of interest to me, and has been known to induce an occassional wager . . . In 2004, I told myself for days before the LPGA Championship that a play was in order on Angela Stanford. The first odds I looked at were like 150/1, and as often happens, life away from golf and my capping of some other event(s) distracted me from implementing my plan, and when the dust settled, a 4th place finish by Stanford left quite an empty feeling . . . . A somewhat different complexion this year, as I've contemplated a play on Lebouc for several weeks - before her first of three Top Tens - and not venturing out has been the right call, but not without some anxious moments. She looked as fit and feisty as ever during the one glimpse I caught of her play during these past weeks. At some time from her brief heyday before childbirth it just seems I formed a perception that at crunch time, Lebouc displayed testes that didn't take a back seat to any contemporary golfers playing under the French flag - which might not be saying a lot.
GL
Patricia Meunier-Lebouc(125/1) e.w. @ Sportingbet
- - An important golf championship - men, women or children - is always of interest to me, and has been known to induce an occassional wager . . . In 2004, I told myself for days before the LPGA Championship that a play was in order on Angela Stanford. The first odds I looked at were like 150/1, and as often happens, life away from golf and my capping of some other event(s) distracted me from implementing my plan, and when the dust settled, a 4th place finish by Stanford left quite an empty feeling . . . . A somewhat different complexion this year, as I've contemplated a play on Lebouc for several weeks - before her first of three Top Tens - and not venturing out has been the right call, but not without some anxious moments. She looked as fit and feisty as ever during the one glimpse I caught of her play during these past weeks. At some time from her brief heyday before childbirth it just seems I formed a perception that at crunch time, Lebouc displayed testes that didn't take a back seat to any contemporary golfers playing under the French flag - which might not be saying a lot.
GL
You got some very valid points Stan--which I weighed heavily also-am hoping her youth prevents fatique factor--Good luck--and I won't be disappointed if shes cut 
a few in running @ Cbet--haven't been putting many of these up
but we now got folks elsewhere throwing these up on forum where the linesmakers reside the mintue they line them and then remark how lines drop with in minutes. Wonder if they have a clue what the cost is for a little attention Expect this opp to be short lived in the future---
To plce top 5
Inkster 8/1
Wie 8/1
Creamer 10/1
Wies line has dropped---but 8/1 at time of wager
Single Bets
STATUS Description Price Wager USD Payout Results
Accepted McDonald's LPGA Championship - Tournament - Top 5 - WIE, Michelle Win 9.00 20.00 180.00
but we now got folks elsewhere throwing these up on forum where the linesmakers reside the mintue they line them and then remark how lines drop with in minutes. Wonder if they have a clue what the cost is for a little attention Expect this opp to be short lived in the future---
To plce top 5
Inkster 8/1
Wie 8/1
Creamer 10/1
Wies line has dropped---but 8/1 at time of wager
Single Bets
STATUS Description Price Wager USD Payout Results
Accepted McDonald's LPGA Championship - Tournament - Top 5 - WIE, Michelle Win 9.00 20.00 180.00
4th rd
Inkster -113 over Lee Seon Hwa @ Expekt
Got to view entire telecast yesterday and what a treat.
This course is set up tough and has been fun watching them negotiate this rough.
Will most definately opt to view today over PGA event.Will be a dogfight. Would like to see Ochoa pull it off--Wie been negotiating rough the best and was in it entire back nine--Fat Pat and Webb hitting em close but putting sucks--Little Ahn would be dark horse as she is very steady on these tough courses--but composer is ?
Inkster -113 over Lee Seon Hwa @ Expekt
Got to view entire telecast yesterday and what a treat.
This course is set up tough and has been fun watching them negotiate this rough.
Will most definately opt to view today over PGA event.Will be a dogfight. Would like to see Ochoa pull it off--Wie been negotiating rough the best and was in it entire back nine--Fat Pat and Webb hitting em close but putting sucks--Little Ahn would be dark horse as she is very steady on these tough courses--but composer is ?
Outrights - FINAL RESULT: 1-2; -2.09pts
Ochoa 9th
Creamer 49th
Kerr 5th
Expected better from Ochoa having been so well-placed with one round to play, but it was Kerr's bogey on the final hole that was most costly. A birdie would have put her in the playoff, instead four-way tie for fifth place was not even enough to return the stake.
Matchups - FINAL RESULT: 3-2; +2.28pts
Ahn/Lee WON by 2
Inkster/Diaz LOST by 2
Hurst/Granada WON by 9
Ochoa/Wie LOST by 1
Webb/Wie WON by 2
Small profit to just about cover the losses on the outright plays.
LPGA Tour ytd
Outrights: 9-25; -11.02pts
Matchups: 20-16; -3.40pts
Ochoa 9th
Creamer 49th
Kerr 5th
Expected better from Ochoa having been so well-placed with one round to play, but it was Kerr's bogey on the final hole that was most costly. A birdie would have put her in the playoff, instead four-way tie for fifth place was not even enough to return the stake.
Matchups - FINAL RESULT: 3-2; +2.28pts
Ahn/Lee WON by 2
Inkster/Diaz LOST by 2
Hurst/Granada WON by 9
Ochoa/Wie LOST by 1
Webb/Wie WON by 2
Small profit to just about cover the losses on the outright plays.
LPGA Tour ytd
Outrights: 9-25; -11.02pts
Matchups: 20-16; -3.40pts
