Memphis ? North Texas
There are many cappers on this board that feel this game is too difficult to analyze. I agree that other games are of greater importance and therefore will have more public interest, i.e. greater value resulting from lines directed to the public. Given the greater length of time between each bowl I feel that there is ample time to analyze each and every game and use this analysis to wager on even the small, relatively new bowl games.
Initially, I felt that the line was correct on this game given the regular season performance of each team and the overall strength of each teams conference. Interestingly enough nothing remains constant throughout an NCAA ? FB season, which is especially true for bowl bound teams. I feel there are two factors that have highlighted this bowl as an early play when it appeared to be a pass.
1. Star RB ? D. Williams will not play in the New Orleans Bowl due to a knee injury.
2. Memphis? first bowl appearance in 32 years is the newest bowl with the least prestige. North Texas has been in all three New Orleans Bowls, coming off a strong upset as an 8-point dog, defeating Cincinnati 24 -19.
Without Williams, Memphis is a different team. Even though Derron Parquet replaced Williams and gained a fantastic 164 yards on 26 carries, I question that ability of this team to set up the pass and play their type of game against an experienced North Texas defense. South Florida has the 38-ranked rush defense, 135.5 yards/game. North Texas has the 17-ranked rush defense 108.2 yards/game. Also, South Florida did not have any game tape of Parquet, I can guarantee that NT has studied the south Florida game and will not be as susceptible to the same big runs.
In reference to Dr. Strangelove?s 10 commandments to betting bowls (I place high emphasis on these Commandments), the second factor that I outlined above definitely has significance.
X. Though shall consider experience and other intangible factors
The New Orleans bowl has become a championship game for North Texas. They are turning into a strong lower echelon program in the weakest IA conference. The Sun-Belt conference is definitely the weakest conf that places a team in any bowl. Based on the Sagarin conference ratings IA & IAA, Sun Belt ? 54.53(15) vs. USA ? 65.64(9). I would argue that North Texas is progressively stronger than other teams in the Sun Belt, while Memphis is basically the average representative from C-USA. This is evident from the strength of schedule, North Texas ? 110 vs. Memphis ? 112. North Texas has focus in this game and will not fall prone to the celebratory atmosphere of Bowl week, surely present in New Orleans!
North Texas +4 (2 units)
I have more to add, will update after lunch?.
There are many cappers on this board that feel this game is too difficult to analyze. I agree that other games are of greater importance and therefore will have more public interest, i.e. greater value resulting from lines directed to the public. Given the greater length of time between each bowl I feel that there is ample time to analyze each and every game and use this analysis to wager on even the small, relatively new bowl games.
Initially, I felt that the line was correct on this game given the regular season performance of each team and the overall strength of each teams conference. Interestingly enough nothing remains constant throughout an NCAA ? FB season, which is especially true for bowl bound teams. I feel there are two factors that have highlighted this bowl as an early play when it appeared to be a pass.
1. Star RB ? D. Williams will not play in the New Orleans Bowl due to a knee injury.
2. Memphis? first bowl appearance in 32 years is the newest bowl with the least prestige. North Texas has been in all three New Orleans Bowls, coming off a strong upset as an 8-point dog, defeating Cincinnati 24 -19.
Without Williams, Memphis is a different team. Even though Derron Parquet replaced Williams and gained a fantastic 164 yards on 26 carries, I question that ability of this team to set up the pass and play their type of game against an experienced North Texas defense. South Florida has the 38-ranked rush defense, 135.5 yards/game. North Texas has the 17-ranked rush defense 108.2 yards/game. Also, South Florida did not have any game tape of Parquet, I can guarantee that NT has studied the south Florida game and will not be as susceptible to the same big runs.
In reference to Dr. Strangelove?s 10 commandments to betting bowls (I place high emphasis on these Commandments), the second factor that I outlined above definitely has significance.
X. Though shall consider experience and other intangible factors
The New Orleans bowl has become a championship game for North Texas. They are turning into a strong lower echelon program in the weakest IA conference. The Sun-Belt conference is definitely the weakest conf that places a team in any bowl. Based on the Sagarin conference ratings IA & IAA, Sun Belt ? 54.53(15) vs. USA ? 65.64(9). I would argue that North Texas is progressively stronger than other teams in the Sun Belt, while Memphis is basically the average representative from C-USA. This is evident from the strength of schedule, North Texas ? 110 vs. Memphis ? 112. North Texas has focus in this game and will not fall prone to the celebratory atmosphere of Bowl week, surely present in New Orleans!
North Texas +4 (2 units)
I have more to add, will update after lunch?.
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