Mercedes Championships
- Thread starter phar.lap
- Start date
I have one 72 holer as well :
Toms +120 over Adam Scott.
The wind is set to blow this week and Toms is a solid wind player. Scott has been by his own standards badly out of form in recent events.
GLTA!
Toms +120 over Adam Scott.
The wind is set to blow this week and Toms is a solid wind player. Scott has been by his own standards badly out of form in recent events.
GLTA!
Win Only:
David Toms --> 25/1 Blue Square
Aaron Oberholser --> 40/1 Blue Square
Each-Way 1/4 1-4:
J.B. Holmes --> 125/1 ToteSport
David Toms --> 25/1 Blue Square
Aaron Oberholser --> 40/1 Blue Square
Each-Way 1/4 1-4:
J.B. Holmes --> 125/1 ToteSport
Any reason u are fading badds??
Also i am leaning towards olbehouser over petterson.. Still capping though dance1
Also i am leaning towards olbehouser over petterson.. Still capping though dance1
Yea I have read about durants mindset not bein all there, that being said i think his recent form is still tough to bet against. I like your bads play :Yep:
72 holes @ Pinny
Aaron Baddely (-126) over JB Holmes
Kirk Tripplett (-115) over Jeff Maggert
:spotting:
View the blog for writeups.. Have a good year fellas
Aaron Baddely (-126) over JB Holmes
Kirk Tripplett (-115) over Jeff Maggert
:spotting:
View the blog for writeups.. Have a good year fellas
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I was looking at Toms until I read that he is playing with new irons this week.
Outright plays (total stake per play: 1pt)
Geoff Ogilvy to win 14/1 e.w. @ Stan James, Paddy Power, Ladbrokes and Tote
Had been tempted by Vijay Singh and Adam Scott, but while the Fijian has been extremely consistent in Hawaii, he has yet to win this event and Scott ranks 176th of 196 in '3-Putt Avoidance' on the PGA Tour last year ... relevant as these are, by far, the largest greens that these golfers will play on all year. Ogilvy ranked a much more respectable 56th in that category last year, but is favoured largely for his impressive form during the PGA Tour 'off-season', which, aided by a return to warmer climes in Australia, has led him to be far better prepared for this event than most of his Northern Hemisphere colleagues. Not only did he dispel any competitiveness rustiness with strong performances in his home country - 2nd in the Australian Open and 8th in the Australian PGA Championship - but it took one of Tiger's best-ever final round performances to wrest the Target World Challenge away from him a week before Christmas. Appleby may be trying for the four-peat this week, but there is certainly a very strong contingent that will be trying to keep this title in Australian hands.
Davis Love to win 33/1 e.w. available generally
Love may be one player to prevent that. In his own words, "I wanted the Ryder Cup so bad that I let it get in the way of everything else I was doing" and it is clear from his results. Having failed to record a single top-10 finish in a strokeplay event so far in 2006, after the Ryder Cup team was announced on the Monday, Love would finish 4th in the WGC Bridgestone Invitational on the Sunday and would then finish 1st, 5th and 27th in his remaining three events on the PGA Tour. Now, again in his own words, he can't wait for the 2007 season to get started and where better than at the Plantation Resort in Maui. He is a former winner of this event (1993) and was a two-time winner on this course in the Lincoln-Mercury Kapalua Invitational. Those victories may be a few years ago now, but a rejuvenated Love should be at shorter odds than this in Hawaii.
Rod Pampling to win 40/1 e.w. available generally
Pampling has not had the same success in Hawaii, but finished a creditable 19th on his course debut last year (only one player has won on his course debut on this course - Sergio Garcia) and the best part of his game is certainly his putting which will be very important this week. He has played solidly in Australia over the last month or so and he did win the Merrill Lynch Shootout with Jerry Kelly in November. With this event missing Tiger Woods and rookie accounting for almost half of the field, there should some value in Pampling at 40/1 in this event.
It may be closer to purgatory, but it feels like hell.
The season is starting and I have no outs; just The Greek and 5dimes, and the lousy opportunities they provide. The season starts today, and it feels like the obligation of attending a funeral.
My first play of the season is Chris DiMarco(66/1) Win Only for The Masters. It might be one of my best chances for a big season, so I've gone a little heavy. It feels like hell.
I've always worked my way up to speed during the first days and weeks of the season, and it's certainly no exception this time. The difference this time is that the excitement of gaining the advantage of an insight or an angle is now a cruel joke, and staying motivated for any sort of grind is at best a fool's parade, but I'm something or other for whatever, so I'm signed up for the short term, at least . . . Call me Clarabell or Howdy Doody, but I'll have pie.
A full slate of prices at thegreek on this week's small field - and the prevailing place markets being for just 1-2-3-4 - and the absence of The Chosen One - means maybe I've got better opportunities this week than I might see again until the Match Play to land a fair price and grab a respectable opportunity in playing whomever I like (and not feel like I'm taking a knife to a gun fight), so I better give it a full whirl.
Starters:
Geoff Ogilvy(14/1 to Win and +235 for Top 4)
Trevor Immelman(14/1 to Win and +285 for Top 4)
I noted I'm not up to speed, and even if, it's never easy to know what anyone has really been up to. But having been away, these new dads are good candidates for being on task (with actual performances to back up the notion) and "in a good place", and before taking it to a higher level last year, Ogilvy was my top choice and Immelman one of my leading choices for taking their careers to some lofty heights. The trade winds, big course and big greens would seem to me best suited to Ogilvy, while the demands of shotmaking from these hills and swales (classic golf on steroids, in a way) bring Immelman back into the frame for me.
Next:
Rory Sabbatini (40/1 to Win and +575 for Top 4)
- - I like him more than his stupid wife, so I could like him less. Anyway, I read a comment ("Rory Sabbatini, who has been over here practising for the last couple of weeks, said: 'You need to be below the hole, you don't want to be leaving three or four footers for par as it will wear you out.'"), which builds on my thinking he could easily fare well here and out of the box.
Lastly:
Davis Love(33/1 to Win and +525 for Top 4)
Rod Pampling(40/1 to Win and +825 for Top 4)
- - As noted, I'm not up to speed, and usually ease my way in for one or more events. But yesterday it occurred to me that Stanley was not likely to have been coasting through the silly season and is likely to be revved up to get a new campaign underway, so I'd be tailing his first picks without hesitation. It then didn't hurt that I immediately thought his selections formed an excellent card, with the prospects of DLIII returning to Hawaii with momentum and motivation being particularly potent. I'd say Stanley is seriously overdue to flex his considerable muscles.
That's it. Let's grind out some nice profits (I wouldn't mind seeing Stan expand the YTD Recap to include all cappers in profit, and not just the Top 5, at least after a certain point in the season and a minimum number (10?) of posted plays).
Cheers! :mj06:
GL
*****************************
lostinamerica: "Land of the Free"
US CITIZENS PLEASE NOTE: The information contained in this site is for news and entertainment purposes only.
Any use of this information in violation of any federal, state, or local law(s) is prohibited.
Can I interest you in some lottery tickets?
******************************
The season is starting and I have no outs; just The Greek and 5dimes, and the lousy opportunities they provide. The season starts today, and it feels like the obligation of attending a funeral.
My first play of the season is Chris DiMarco(66/1) Win Only for The Masters. It might be one of my best chances for a big season, so I've gone a little heavy. It feels like hell.
I've always worked my way up to speed during the first days and weeks of the season, and it's certainly no exception this time. The difference this time is that the excitement of gaining the advantage of an insight or an angle is now a cruel joke, and staying motivated for any sort of grind is at best a fool's parade, but I'm something or other for whatever, so I'm signed up for the short term, at least . . . Call me Clarabell or Howdy Doody, but I'll have pie.
A full slate of prices at thegreek on this week's small field - and the prevailing place markets being for just 1-2-3-4 - and the absence of The Chosen One - means maybe I've got better opportunities this week than I might see again until the Match Play to land a fair price and grab a respectable opportunity in playing whomever I like (and not feel like I'm taking a knife to a gun fight), so I better give it a full whirl.
Starters:
Geoff Ogilvy(14/1 to Win and +235 for Top 4)
Trevor Immelman(14/1 to Win and +285 for Top 4)
I noted I'm not up to speed, and even if, it's never easy to know what anyone has really been up to. But having been away, these new dads are good candidates for being on task (with actual performances to back up the notion) and "in a good place", and before taking it to a higher level last year, Ogilvy was my top choice and Immelman one of my leading choices for taking their careers to some lofty heights. The trade winds, big course and big greens would seem to me best suited to Ogilvy, while the demands of shotmaking from these hills and swales (classic golf on steroids, in a way) bring Immelman back into the frame for me.
Next:
Rory Sabbatini (40/1 to Win and +575 for Top 4)
- - I like him more than his stupid wife, so I could like him less. Anyway, I read a comment ("Rory Sabbatini, who has been over here practising for the last couple of weeks, said: 'You need to be below the hole, you don't want to be leaving three or four footers for par as it will wear you out.'"), which builds on my thinking he could easily fare well here and out of the box.
Lastly:
Davis Love(33/1 to Win and +525 for Top 4)
Rod Pampling(40/1 to Win and +825 for Top 4)
- - As noted, I'm not up to speed, and usually ease my way in for one or more events. But yesterday it occurred to me that Stanley was not likely to have been coasting through the silly season and is likely to be revved up to get a new campaign underway, so I'd be tailing his first picks without hesitation. It then didn't hurt that I immediately thought his selections formed an excellent card, with the prospects of DLIII returning to Hawaii with momentum and motivation being particularly potent. I'd say Stanley is seriously overdue to flex his considerable muscles.
That's it. Let's grind out some nice profits (I wouldn't mind seeing Stan expand the YTD Recap to include all cappers in profit, and not just the Top 5, at least after a certain point in the season and a minimum number (10?) of posted plays).
Cheers! :mj06:
GL
*****************************
lostinamerica: "Land of the Free"
US CITIZENS PLEASE NOTE: The information contained in this site is for news and entertainment purposes only.
Any use of this information in violation of any federal, state, or local law(s) is prohibited.
Can I interest you in some lottery tickets?
******************************
Last edited:
72 hole prop
winning score under 276.5 +110 @ Hollywood
This line has moved steadily the other way but appears to have maxed.
Believe many are over emphasizing last years 284 compared with other years.
Last years scores mostly attributed to new green and winds of 25mph plus ever day.
With newly sewed greens root system would not hold lots of moisture allowing winds to dry our very firm in short order--that compounded by sparse grass made downhill puts extremely fast.
Forcast has winds approaching 25 MPH only today and chance of rain each day--if accurate I think scores will revert back to prior years--with all of last 10 going under 276.5 total.
winning score under 276.5 +110 @ Hollywood
This line has moved steadily the other way but appears to have maxed.
Believe many are over emphasizing last years 284 compared with other years.
Last years scores mostly attributed to new green and winds of 25mph plus ever day.
With newly sewed greens root system would not hold lots of moisture allowing winds to dry our very firm in short order--that compounded by sparse grass made downhill puts extremely fast.
Forcast has winds approaching 25 MPH only today and chance of rain each day--if accurate I think scores will revert back to prior years--with all of last 10 going under 276.5 total.
I can't take credit for this hypothesis, but it struck me as well worth tracking:
"IMO the course favour players who can give it a good hit but Holmes is too limited a player to win here, you need to be able to change the way you hit the ball on certain holes, hitting it low on some and high on others, moving the ball and have some imagination, look at jason Gore and Sean O'Hair in this last year, both give it a good hit but both limited at this stage in what they can do with the ball in terms of changing there game to suit the course both had nightmares last year in difficult conditions."
GL
"IMO the course favour players who can give it a good hit but Holmes is too limited a player to win here, you need to be able to change the way you hit the ball on certain holes, hitting it low on some and high on others, moving the ball and have some imagination, look at jason Gore and Sean O'Hair in this last year, both give it a good hit but both limited at this stage in what they can do with the ball in terms of changing there game to suit the course both had nightmares last year in difficult conditions."
GL
- Feb 26, 2001
- 13,593
- 164
- 63
Welcome Back Golf 2007, Good luck to all this year.
outrights
Toms 20-1 1 unit
Durant 30-1 1 unit
Choi 30-1 1 unit
Petterson 40-1 1 unit
Holmes 75-1 1 unit
Mackenzie 100-1 1 unit
Match-ups
Petterson over Ames even 5.0 units
Senden over Pampling -110 5.5 units
Appelby over Singh -110 5.5 units
Mackenzie over Axley -110 5.5 units
outrights
Toms 20-1 1 unit
Durant 30-1 1 unit
Choi 30-1 1 unit
Petterson 40-1 1 unit
Holmes 75-1 1 unit
Mackenzie 100-1 1 unit
Match-ups
Petterson over Ames even 5.0 units
Senden over Pampling -110 5.5 units
Appelby over Singh -110 5.5 units
Mackenzie over Axley -110 5.5 units
I dont wanna tout my site by any means..
But i agree with the comment on holmes.. He is also a horrible scrambler and 188th on tour on 3 putt avoidance he is definately a player to fade this week considering how large the greens are. But if the weather is wrong and the winds are down he could go extremly low.
I got some inside info that maggart might wd i dont know how accurate it is, but that is why i bet against him. :shrug: Good luck fellas
But i agree with the comment on holmes.. He is also a horrible scrambler and 188th on tour on 3 putt avoidance he is definately a player to fade this week considering how large the greens are. But if the weather is wrong and the winds are down he could go extremly low.
I got some inside info that maggart might wd i dont know how accurate it is, but that is why i bet against him. :shrug: Good luck fellas
I did wonder if you were abcs 
Welcome aboard and good luck with the blog. Lots of good cappers here at MJs ... just hope the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act doesn't kill off their enthusiasm.
Welcome aboard and good luck with the blog. Lots of good cappers here at MJs ... just hope the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act doesn't kill off their enthusiasm.
