My preview:
The PGA Tour season kicks off with a Tournament of Champions and quality of the field certainly puts the World Matchplay in the shade. With Woods having won nine Tour events last year, the field is smaller than usual, though it must still be remembered that he won less than 50% of the PGA Tour events he entered last year. It was important 12 months ago that Woods began the season with a win - and the manner in which he beat Els was enthralling - and it is the same this year if the aura of invincibility is to remain.
The course certainly suits the long-hitters and shot-makers, being a very rare par-73 on the Tour and measuring 7,263 yards. Designed by Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw it has hosted a Tour event every year since it opened in 1991. First the Lincoln Mercury Kapalua International and since 1999, the Mercedes Championship. It is noteworthy for two features. The first is that was built on the side of a mountain and so the fairways and greens have some quite severe slopes. With it also being exposed to ocean winds, this combination made it a none-too-popular venue for the International. It is worth noting that when the winds blew on the first two days last year, the scoring average was 74.65; over the calmer weekend the average was 71.40. The second feature is size of the greens. They average 9,500 square feet; by means of comparison the average size of the greens at the Tucson Open this week will be 5,000 square feet. Length, good ball control in wind and good long-distance putting will be important this week.
Everything points to a Tiger Woods victory this week and I agree given the odds available. There may be concerns about rustiness at this time of the year, but lack of preparation is not a charge that can be leveled at this player. The defending champion, he was 5th two years ago behind the runaway winner Duval and averages more than 4-under-par per round on this course despite the high winds during last year's competition. With only Duval, Mickelson and Els being serious contenders for this trophy, he looks tempting with odds of 13/8 being rare on the blonde(!) bombshell.
With a double-play on Woods, the conservative approach to the early season outrights is continued with an each-way play on Duval as the only other pick. No repeat of last year's off-season weights program and Duval should be some way to being the #1 challenger to Woods this year. His putter was in good form in the World Cup in Argentina and he returns to a course on which he has returned finishes of 1st (by nine shots) and 3rd to have the lowest scoring average on this course of any player. With the place bet being paid on the first four places in a field of just 33 players, this looks a solid, if conservative, play.
Outright plays:
Tiger Woods to win 13/8 @
Simon Bold [2 units]
David Duval to win e/w 10/1 @
Ladbrokes
