Mercedes

kjls04202

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Hi- Happy New Year to you all.

Does anyone know if The Tiger is playing in the opening Mercedes Championship this year?
I have been on Betfair and there is already betting on it, and there is no sign of Tiger in their betting. I have looked and scoured the golf sites and I could not see any mention of Tiger not playing. I would appreciate it if anyone can enlighten me.
Thanks:confused:
 
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milpalm

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A bit early in the season for match bets perhaps but I have found one I like.

Kelly over Olazabal 1.90 Betandwin.
Kelly won in Hawaii last year and finished strongly last year when he was 4th in the Tour Championship. Olllie has been out of sorts for some time now.
 

DOGS THAT BARK

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Thanks for heads up big M Looked very early this am and didn't see matches at B&W. I fancy your look on above and will head there to see whats up.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
I kinda fancy Leonard over Choi in their matchups but will try and stay away from ties lose matches unless absolutely necessary, but a small combo on the 2 may be in order.:)
 
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DOGS THAT BARK

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Outrights to place only 1 unit each @ SIA
Dimarco and Leonard each @ 5/1

72 hole matches at Cascade
Price -120 over Riley
Mediate -110 over Estes
will add any other 72 holes to this thread but note additions have been made in post.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
adding
Estes -110 (ties lose) over Mattiace
a good hedge.While Mattiace is a great putter he has not done well on Islands last 3 years cut-cut-44.
The greens in Hawaii are quite something. It is quite an experience as the grain is unbelievable.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
adding @ 5dimes
Els -125 over Garcia
Els is a steady eddie here and maybe last year winner jinx will carry over from last year.:)
 
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Stanley

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It's good to be back :D

Outright plays (0.5 units - half-plays for first 4 weeks of season):

Ernie Els to win 13/2 @ Pinnacle
Missed the 8/1 available at Eurobet when they Mickelson was still in the field ... had six week to prepare for this event and still end up missing the boat! Still good value for a player with a proven track record in Hawaii and in an event lacking its usual depth. Apart form winning the Grand Slam of Golf at Poipu Bay in 1997, Els has finished 2nd, 5th, 3rd and 3rd in Hawaiian events in the last two years, of which two of the top-3s were on this course. Had an easy schedule at the end of last year and played some of the best golf of his career when winning the Nedbank Golf Challenge on his last outing. The weather would not have hampered his winter practicing and he looks to have a very good chance this week.

Jim Furyk to win 14/1 e.w. @ Olympic [.25 units to win; .25 units to show]
Good experience in Hawaii, and in this event in particular, is important this week and Furyk can match Els in that respect. He has won three times in Hawaii, including this event in 2001, finished in the top-4 either side of that victory. He kept himself busy in the close season with good finishes in the Nedbank Challenge and Williams World Challenge and in a field that boasts so many rookies, he can certainly secure another top-4 finish for the place win.

Bob Estes to win 40/1 e.w. @ William Hill or Tote (5 places)
Estes completes a trio of players who putt well on Bermuda greens. He finished 10th here last year on his debut, but had finished 4th on his previous visit to Hawaii, the 1997 Kapalua International. Was disappointing in the close season events, but had a succession of top-10 finishes at the end of last season and if he can rediscover any sort of that form he could sneak a top-5 place in this rather weak season opener.
 
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steved

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DTB, place only betting at Skybet.com, might even take a look myself. Stan rates their odds compiler, so not sure what vakue we will get...
 
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Stanley

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Yes, I do rate him ;)

Nice development though. Tiger is nowhere near as dominant as Annika ... aren't the dominant players always referred to by their first names ... Arnie, Jack, etc. ... but it could be an interesting market. Let's hope it spreads to less-sharp golf books :)
 

DOGS THAT BARK

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added 72 hole
Estes -110 over Mattiace @ SIA

I saw Skybet does not take Neteller,may ante up there anyway.

Threw in my vote on your poll Stan. I like idea if it is not too much trouble for you.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Well I told myself I wasn't going to add books that don't take Neteller but going to have to add skybet anyway as it appears according to South African line up they are paying 1/4 odds 5 places which is better than 1/5 @ 5dimes and appears from their futures they will line the bush also. I don't know what else I could ask for. Thanks for heads up Steved.Appreciate it bud!
 
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steved

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I am trying some stats of my own...looking at books. Carrying over from last season going for those ducked by Bet Direct in US.

That gives me ew Leonard at 25/1. Will not give obvious reasons, because there are some, Bet Direct have done that for me...

Will stop saying who after season warms up, otherwise I will be shooting myself in foot. So if I do not say who, it is because I am following one of the sharper books....
 

kjls04202

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I think that Charles Howell has a good chance. The obvious Ernie Els also. But I could not back Els here after he threw it away after leading in round three 2 years ago when I was on big time. No-one seems to mention Chris Smith. He has all the attributes needed here except the putting stats. He has the length and the GIR's. If he has a going week with the putter he is not out of it.
 

Stanley

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Matchup plays (0.5 units unless stated):

Bob Estes to beat Rich Beem -111 @ Ladbrokes [1 unit]
A runners-up spot in the farcical Australian Open does not disguise a very poor final three months to the 2002 season for Beem. He even finished last in Williams World Challenge on his last outing. His record in Hawaii is not impressive either. Two missed cuts and a best of 53rd in four appearances in the Hawaiian Open and a last place finish in his previous Mercedes appearance is hardly supportive. He also finished last in the 2002 Grand Slam of Golf held at Poipu Bay. Backing an outright selection with ease.

Rocco Mediate to beat Rich Beem -111 @ BetandWin
Plays little, but contends when he does, Mediate should have the better of Beem this week. He beat him by 14 shots in 2000 and finished 6th last year.

Bob Estes to beat Len Mattiace -111 @ William Hill and SIA
Also siding with Estes to beat Mattiace who played very poorly in the second half of last season. After his win in the St. Jude Classic, Mattiace recorded just one top-20 in his remaining eleven starts of 2002 and that was in the limited-field Tour Championship (18th). With an unimpressive performance in the Hawaiian Open bar a runners-up spot in 1999, he looks one to oppose this week.

Dan Forsman to beat Craig Perks -118 @ Expekt
Perks is another to oppose this week. Had the AmEx Championship not been a limited-field event (he finished 61st of 65), he would have missed the cut in his last starts events of 2002. He has also missed the cut both times he has played in the Hawaiian Open. Forsman won't win, but at least he is capable making cuts each week.

Sergio Garcia to beat Charles Howell -120 @ Bet365
Usually stay away from defending champions, but he does have an advantage in course knowledge, is the far better putter which will be important on these huge Bermuda greens and should be a much shorter price if the outright market is to be believed.
 

lostinamerica

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I can't say it any better than sports student did in a different thread on 12/18/02:

"congrats to everyone on the leaderboard and to all the people on this board. As a first year player I learned a lot and lost very little so it was a good experience. A special thanks to Stanley for all the hard work you put into your website. Am already looking toward the new season."

It's good to be back. Cheers!
---------- ---------- ----------

I didn't really get wrapped up in the golf season last year until about Pebble Beach and San Diego, and I'm not even close to being up to speed right now. But NCAA football is over and the NFL season is winding down so I'm ready to get started, s-l-o-w-l-y I expect in terms of wagers made. We'll see.

Here Goes:

OUTRIGHTS:
(The small field must account for the discrepancy from the usual correlation in odds at 5dimes?)

Phil Tataurangi (90/1 To Win and 12/1 Top 5) for 0.25* e.w. @ 5dimes
I'm intrigued by the possibilities in a small but elite field on a spacious but interesting resort course with Pacific breezes and lengthy putts to be holed . I know he is explosive. I think he is talented and ambitious. I'm hoping that there is not a real aversion to Bermuda greens. While I didn't find anything of note regarding his preparation for this season, I did come across these words from April of 2002 regarding his start to the 2002 campaign:
-- -- "I'm playing solid. I changed my offseason. I dropped midway through last year what I was doing wrong. I've never gotten off to a good start all the years on Tour. I was kind of looking forward to the offseason midway through last year. What I was doing wrong was, I was going back to New Zealand, taking some time off and working with my coach about two weeks, a week or so before I would come back to play tournament golf. My game would need a little bit of work and we would do some mechanical changes in my swing, but I never got a chance to play rounds of golf with the changes I made to my swing, and I would come out and my swing wouldn't be in good enough shape to play and I would lose confidence. It would take me all over the West Coast to get going.
-- -- "Last year, as soon as I got through Q-School, I went straight home and worked with my coach for the next two weeks prior to Christmas, didn't take any time off, played with my friends and played rounds of golf, did a little bit of practice. Just played a lot of golf over the Christmas/ New Year period and came to Hawaii feeling like I was ready to play tournament golf and I haven't taken a decent break all year, at the same time my schedule has only been like a couple of tournaments in a row, a week off, and a couple tournaments in a row. So I just feel like from the get-go my game and my swing was ready to play tournament golf. Mentally I was ready to play, and I've just kind of been topping it out on my weeks off. It's been a big change around and seeing the fruits of it."

Ernie Els(11/2 To Win) for 0.25* @ Bet365
I'm too late to the table for any e.w. value. Ernie is a giant that is too big to ignore at a venue where he has so much going for him in a spot that may have real importance to him.

GL
 

warner

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my picks this week
howell over choi 225/150
mary over beem 233/150
riley over olazabel 255/150
rolins over sutherland 218/150
Hope you guys dont mind me posting my picks i think this will help me keep a running total of how i am doing throghout the year if i get up 3000 or down 3000 i think i will quit. I know this alot of juice to pay but i think the books are starting to catch up on the matchups.
 
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Ian

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Was fortunate enough to get the 8/1 Els early doors - not overly keen on limited events like this but have also had smaller plays on two outsiders whose game might suit - Smith 80/1 and Burns 150/1
 
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